To investigate person-level agreement between medication exposure as predicted using the PRE2DUP (a prescription-based design to estimate continuous drug use) method and postmortem toxicological findings, in the Swedish population during the years 2006 to 2013.


 We modeled expected drug-use periods with the PRE2DUP using an algorithm of demonstrated high validity that evaluates personal drug-purchasing patterns with consideration to possible stockpiling of drugs and package information.  In data from 18 627 performed autopsies, as well as 10 160 instances of dispensed drug use, the agreement between PRE2DUP drug-use periods and forensic toxicology was, overall, moderate (Cohen's kappa: 0.56 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.55-0.57]) with a positive predictive value, or predicted adherence rate, of 46.0%.  Measured agreement between PRE2DUP-based drug-use estimates and forensic-toxicological findings is dependent upon a number of factors, including true continuous drug use and postmortem detectability of the investigated drugs, as well as the occurrence of unconventional dosing and true non-adherence.
PRE2DUP
Using the Swedish National Board of Forensic Medicine's toxicology database and the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's registries on causes of death, dispensed medications, and in-patient care, forensic-toxicological findings were compared with prescription-based estimates of drug use for 27 medications. 
the Swedish National Board of Forensic Medicine's toxicology database
Using the Swedish National Board of Forensic Medicine's toxicology database and the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's registries on causes of death, dispensed medications, and in-patient care, forensic-toxicological findings were compared with prescription-based estimates of drug use for 27 medications. 
the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's registries on causes of death, dispensed medications, and in-patient care