A score for estimating survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with rest SpO2>88.BACKGROUND
 Prediction models for survival at baseline evaluation have been proposed in IPF but some are difficult to use.  The aim of present study was to develop a new mortality risk scoring system for patients with IPF at initial evaluation.


 One hundred twenty with definitive IPF were selected through a review of standardized medical records for interstitial lung diseases.  Patients with resting SpO2<89% were excluded.  Significant individual predictors we derived by a Cox proportional hazards model and transformed in categorical data according to cut-off points.  Beta coefficients for each predictor were similar, so a score was created considering the sum of dichotomic (0 or 1) transformed variables.


 Independent predictors of mortality by multivariate analysis included dyspnea (at rest or to light or moderate activities), FVC<70%,FEV1/FVC>0.89 and DLCO ≤ 40%.  Resting SpO2 and ExSpO2 were excluded in final analysis.  The hazard ratios ranged from 1.95 for dyspnoea to 2.30 for DLCO.  When the total score was 0 (Stage I, n=28), median survival time was 68 months; when 1 or 2 (Stage II, n=69), it was 45 months; and when 3 or 4 (Stage III, n=23), it was 19 months (log rank= 60.44, p<0.001).


 The score can separate IPF patients with high, intermediate and low survival.
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