In this discovery and validation study, we evaluated the suitability of a mathematical model of apoptosis execution (APOPTO-CELL) as a stand-alone signature and as a constituent of further refined prognostic stratification tools.Experimental Design: Apoptosis competency of primary tumor samples from patients with stage III colorectal cancer (n = 120) was calculated by APOPTO-CELL from measured protein concentrations of Procaspase-3, Procaspase-9, SMAC, and XIAP.  An enriched APOPTO-CELL signature (APOPTO-CELL-PC3) was synthesized to capture apoptosome-independent effects of Caspase-3.  Furthermore, a machine learning Random Forest approach was applied to APOPTO-CELL-PC3 and available molecular and clinicopathologic data to identify a further enhanced signature.  Results: We identified 3 prognostic biomarkers (P = 0.04, P = 0.006, and P = 0.0004 for APOPTO-CELL, APOPTO-CELL-PC3, and Random Forest signatures, respectively) with increasing stratification accuracy for patients with stage III colorectal cancer.The APOPTO-CELL-PC3 signature ranked highest among all features.  The prognostic value of the signatures was independently validated in stage III TCGA COAD patients (P = 0.01, P = 0.04, and P = 0.02 for APOPTO-CELL, APOPTO-CELL-PC3, and Random Forest signatures, respectively). 
APOPTO-CELL
Furthermore, a machine learning Random Forest approach was applied to APOPTO-CELL-PC3 and available molecular and clinicopathologic data to identify a further enhanced signature.  Results: We identified 3 prognostic biomarkers (P = 0.04, P = 0.006, and P = 0.0004 for APOPTO-CELL, APOPTO-CELL-PC3, and Random Forest signatures, respectively) with increasing stratification accuracy for patients with stage III colorectal cancer.The APOPTO-CELL-PC3 signature ranked highest among all features.  The prognostic value of the signatures was independently validated in stage III TCGA COAD patients (P = 0.01, P = 0.04, and P = 0.02 for APOPTO-CELL, APOPTO-CELL-PC3, and Random Forest signatures, respectively). 
Random Forest