<p>Old question; I hope you’re still active here…</p>
<p>Basically, we CAN’T predict coronal mass ejections in advance. See <a href="http://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/ssu_index.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">http://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/ssu_index.html</a></p>
<p>Other solar events, such as the number of sunspots, are somewhat predictable—not precisely, but at least have an idea about them. For example, sunspots follow a cycle of approximately 11 years. However, we don’t know before a cycle if it will be strong or not—our models are still too imprecise, though, like you wrote, there has been some advancement, but not much.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-25T03:30:22.830Z
Why can't we predict coronal mass ejections in advance?  Would you mind elaborating on your answer?
Connor Garcia
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-25T03:34:52.320Z
@ConnorGarcia: I’m afraid I don’t know solar physics well enough to answer your question, but the link I gave has some explanation, albeit not much…
Pierre Paquette
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-25T13:16:01.703Z
It's similar to a boiling kettle of water. You can predict that steam will evaporate. But you cannot predict precisely enough where a rising bubble will burst on the surface - especially if you only see the surface. Or take our weather forecasts. We can predict it will rain. But if there is patchy rain... you cannot be sure but only give percentages, and we have WAY more weather satellites than solar. In the case of the Sun we also don't know well-enough the 3D structure of the magnetic field and the resistivity of the gas, both of which play a major role in CMEs
planetmaker
CC BY-SA 4.0
2020-11-25T03:03:27.363Z
2020-11-25T03:03:27.363Z
Pierre Paquette
<p>I suppose this applies to all solar events.</p>

<p>I know centuries ago they knew the quantity of these things fluxuated in  solar cycles. Apart from that I know there has been advancement in solar weather forecasting but how accurate is it? Could, say ESA, have enough foreknowledge to launch a satellite or have one poised in solar orbit to 'go fishing' to investigate the emissions in someway? ?composition of particles- for example?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-09-03T09:01:20.487Z
FYI. There is currently a [new project](https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_weather/Name_ESA_s_new_mission) by ESA to observe the sun from the (60 degree lagging) L5 Lagrange point. This will allow us to see sunspots, flares and CME's that occur on the far side of the sun, and thus (somewhat) increase the response time to potentially damaging solar events.
not2qubit
<coronal-mass-ejection>
how accurate are the predictions for coronal mass ejections-(location, timing and magnitude)?
Paul
# how accurate are the predictions for coronal mass ejections-(location, timing and magnitude)?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2018-07-25)

I suppose this applies to all solar events.

I know centuries ago they knew the quantity of these things fluxuated in solar cycles. Apart from that I know there has been advancement in solar weather forecasting but how accurate is it? Could, say ESA, have enough foreknowledge to launch a satellite or have one poised in solar orbit to 'go fishing' to investigate the emissions in someway? ?composition of particles- for example?

**Tags:** coronal-mass-ejection
> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: FYI. There is currently a [new project](https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_weather/Name_ESA_s_new_mission) by ESA to observe the sun from the (60 degree lagging) L5 Lagrange point. This will allow us to see sunspots, flares and CME's that occur on the far side of the sun, and thus (somewhat) increase the response time to potentially damaging solar events.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_2 on 2020-11-25. Score: 4

Old question; I hope you’re still active here…

Basically, we CAN’T predict coronal mass ejections in advance. See <http://solar.physics.montana.edu/press/ssu_index.html>

Other solar events, such as the number of sunspots, are somewhat predictable—not precisely, but at least have an idea about them. For example, sunspots follow a cycle of approximately 11 years. However, we don’t know before a cycle if it will be strong or not—our models are still too imprecise, though, like you wrote, there has been some advancement, but not much.

> **Comments:**
> **username_3**: Why can't we predict coronal mass ejections in advance?  Would you mind elaborating on your answer?  
> **username_2**: @ConnorGarcia: I’m afraid I don’t know solar physics well enough to answer your question, but the link I gave has some explanation, albeit not much…  
> **username_4**: It's similar to a boiling kettle of water. You can predict that steam will evaporate. But you cannot predict precisely enough where a rising bubble will burst on the surface - especially if you only see the surface. Or take our weather forecasts. We can predict it will rain. But if there is patchy rain... you cannot be sure but only give percentages, and we have WAY more weather satellites than solar. In the case of the Sun we also don't know well-enough the 3D structure of the magnetic field and the resistivity of the gas, both of which play a major role in CMEs  

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