<p>Although not being an expert on the field, I found a multitude of studies dealing with events which may be used as indicator that a GBR is about to happen somewhere. <strong>Research on GBR precusor events range from smaller gamma ray precursors, over gravitiational waves, to thermal signatures, and neutrinos</strong>:</p>
<ul>
<li>Sarp Akcay: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.10057" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Forecasting Gamma-Ray Bursts using Gravitational Waves</a> (2018)</li>
<li>Thomas Koshut <em>et. al</em>: <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/pdf/1995ApJ...452..145K" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Gamma ray precursor activity as observed with BATSE</a> (1995)</li>
<li>L. Piro <em>et al.</em>: <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/428377/meta" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Probing the Environment in Gamma-Ray Bursts: The Case of an X-Ray Precursor, ...</a> (2005)</li>
<li>E. Troja,  S. Rosswog, and N. Gehrels: <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/723/2/1711/meta" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Precursors of short gamma-ray bursts</a> (2010)</li>
<li>Frédéric Daigne, Robert Mochkovitch: <a href="https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/336/4/1271/981917?login=true" rel="nofollow noreferrer">The expected thermal precursors of gamma-ray bursts in the internal shock model</a> (2002)</li>
<li>Coppin, Nick van Eijndhoven for the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IceCube_Neutrino_Observatory" rel="nofollow noreferrer">IceCube</a> Collaboration: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.06653" rel="nofollow noreferrer">IceCube search for high-energy neutrinos produced in the precursor stages of gamma-ray bursts</a> (2019)</li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-01-19T10:43:35.920Z
2021-01-19T10:43:35.920Z
B--rian
<p>What do we know about the locations and directions of potential <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma-ray_burst" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Gamma ray bursts</a> that may intersect with Earth <em>in the future</em>, or are we mostly blind to when such an event directed our way may occur &amp; cause a mass extinction event?</p>
<p>In other words, are we able to predict to any degree at all when one might occur close enough that there may be some potential impact to life or life on Earth or infrastructure?</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-01-19T01:13:57.207Z
Yeah I'm more interested in the former actually, ways to forecast & predict these events.
kmindspark
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-01-19T03:24:09.460Z
@kmindspark Welcome to Astronomy SE! I've made an edit to your question to narrow the scope to events explicitly in the future and close enough to Earth that there is potential for some significant impact. You can ask as many questions as you like; maybe a separate question for prediction of future gamma ray bursts *anywhere observable* can also be asked; they may have different answers. Does this look okay?
uhoh
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-01-19T04:14:57.343Z
No grb's have caused likely extinctions in the last 650 million years, only a few daring researchers have published climate events linked to supernovae or non asteroid events, so grb extinctions arent really a thing in science, as none are known. It would have to be an unstable body within 5 to 50 ly away.
bandybabboon
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-01-20T00:48:10.467Z
@aliential Recently, Fields, Melott, et al proposed a [supernova trigger for the Late Devonian extinction](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7474607) ~360 Mya. Of course, with a supernova close enough to cause mass extinction, you don't just get a GRB, you also get lots of energetic particles.
PM 2Ring
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-01-20T02:01:01.277Z
@pm2ring, I think that there are less than three studies of that standard? https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=supernova+mya&btnG= 360 million years also co-incides with the 30 million year cycle of the solar system travelling through the crowded central disk of the galactic plane.
bandybabboon
CC BY-SA 4.0
2021-01-20T02:22:26.327Z
@aliential The paper by Fields, Melott, et al was only published a few months ago. True, 360 Mya does coincide with the ~30 My cycle, but that's reasonable, IMHO: presumably, the odds of being in line with a supernova are higher when we're closer to the central plane. OTOH, the increased gas & dust density probably reduces the radius of the danger zone around the supernova, to some extent.
PM 2Ring
<gamma-ray-bursts><very-high-energetic-event>
Extent of knowledge of potential future gamma ray bursts
kmindspark
# Extent of knowledge of potential future gamma ray bursts

(Asked by: username_0 on 2021-01-18)

What do we know about the locations and directions of potential [Gamma ray bursts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma-ray_burst) that may intersect with Earth *in the future*, or are we mostly blind to when such an event directed our way may occur & cause a mass extinction event?

In other words, are we able to predict to any degree at all when one might occur close enough that there may be some potential impact to life or life on Earth or infrastructure?

**Tags:** gamma-ray-bursts, very-high-energetic-event
> **Comments:**
> **username_0**: Yeah I'm more interested in the former actually, ways to forecast & predict these events.  
> **username_1**: @kmindspark Welcome to Astronomy SE! I've made an edit to your question to narrow the scope to events explicitly in the future and close enough to Earth that there is potential for some significant impact. You can ask as many questions as you like; maybe a separate question for prediction of future gamma ray bursts *anywhere observable* can also be asked; they may have different answers. Does this look okay?  
> **username_2**: No grb's have caused likely extinctions in the last 650 million years, only a few daring researchers have published climate events linked to supernovae or non asteroid events, so grb extinctions arent really a thing in science, as none are known. It would have to be an unstable body within 5 to 50 ly away.  
> **username_3**: @aliential Recently, Fields, Melott, et al proposed a [supernova trigger for the Late Devonian extinction](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7474607) ~360 Mya. Of course, with a supernova close enough to cause mass extinction, you don't just get a GRB, you also get lots of energetic particles.  
> **username_2**: @pm2ring, I think that there are less than three studies of that standard? https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=supernova+mya&btnG= 360 million years also co-incides with the 30 million year cycle of the solar system travelling through the crowded central disk of the galactic plane.  
> **username_3**: @aliential The paper by Fields, Melott, et al was only published a few months ago. True, 360 Mya does coincide with the ~30 My cycle, but that's reasonable, IMHO: presumably, the odds of being in line with a supernova are higher when we're closer to the central plane. OTOH, the increased gas & dust density probably reduces the radius of the danger zone around the supernova, to some extent.  

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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_4 on 2021-01-19. Score: 1

Although not being an expert on the field, I found a multitude of studies dealing with events which may be used as indicator that a GBR is about to happen somewhere. **Research on GBR precusor events range from smaller gamma ray precursors, over gravitiational waves, to thermal signatures, and neutrinos**:

* Sarp Akcay: [Forecasting Gamma-Ray Bursts using Gravitational Waves](https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.10057) (2018)
* Thomas Koshut *et. al*: [Gamma ray precursor activity as observed with BATSE](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/pdf/1995ApJ...452..145K) (1995)
* L. Piro *et al.*: [Probing the Environment in Gamma-Ray Bursts: The Case of an X-Ray Precursor, ...](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1086/428377/meta) (2005)
* E. Troja, S. Rosswog, and N. Gehrels: [Precursors of short gamma-ray bursts](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/723/2/1711/meta) (2010)
* Frédéric Daigne, Robert Mochkovitch: [The expected thermal precursors of gamma-ray bursts in the internal shock model](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/336/4/1271/981917?login=true) (2002)
* Coppin, Nick van Eijndhoven for the [IceCube](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IceCube_Neutrino_Observatory) Collaboration: [IceCube search for high-energy neutrinos produced in the precursor stages of gamma-ray bursts](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.06653) (2019)


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