<p>I have an answer for the first part of your question, because I looked it up in answering <a href="https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/8827/question-on-the-stability-of-the-solar-system/161973#161973">https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/8827/question-on-the-stability-of-the-solar-system/161973#161973</a> on Physics SE.</p>

<p>If you want to see what the current state of the art on solar system simulations is you could do worse than watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dRLvSzDHo8" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Sean Raymond's presentation</a> at "Protostars and Planets VI" from 2013. You can find the actual write up <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014prpl.conf..595R" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a>. Or from the same conference there is <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014prpl.conf..787D" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Melvyn Davies'</a> review of the long-term dynamics of planetary systems. The talk can <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wKY0LuDuIk" rel="nofollow noreferrer">be seen here.</a> This review does contain the sort of information you are looking for. It discusses the past and future evolution of our solar system, as well as planetary systems in general. It presents and reviews simulations and discusses the relevant issues. Both of these guys are excellent speakers.</p>

<p>A brief summary would be that the solar system is <em>probably</em> stable for the remaining lifetime of the Sun. However, there is the intriguing <em>possibility</em> that Mercury could fall into the Sun or collide with Venus in the next billion years or that Mars <em>could</em> be ejected from the solar system on a similar timescale (e.g. from the N-body simulations of <a href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008ApJ...683.1207B" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Battygin &amp; Laughlin 2008</a>). </p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2015-01-29T13:22:49.287Z
2015-01-29T13:22:49.287Z
2017-04-13T12:40:15.377Z
ProfRob
<p>This is just a repository of useful links to software and papers along the way.</p>

<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://bima.astro.umd.edu/nemo/" rel="nofollow">NEMO</a></p></li>
<li><p>On Toolboxes and Telescopes , by Hut and Sussman, (1986) in: The Use of Supercomputers in Stellar Dynamics, Springer Verlag, p 193-198.</p></li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-12-30T11:22:20.220Z
2014-12-30T11:22:20.220Z
Deer Hunter
<p>I keep thinking of various planetary system configurations, and would like to know:</p>

<ul>
<li><p>What are the fundamental references based on <strong>Monte Carlo long-term simulation of planetary systems' evolution</strong> that put testable restrictions on the distribution of stable configurations around Sol-like stars (<strong>books, papers, software packages</strong>)?</p></li>
<li><p>How rare is the configuration wherein a dwarf planet (<strong>Ceres</strong>, I'm looking at you) is located in the inner system?</p></li>
</ul>

<p><sub>The main question is the first one, in the vein of "teach a man to fish..."</sub>.</p>

<hr>

<p><sub>Related Q&amp;A's here that do not answer my question:</sub></p>

<ul>
<li><sub> <a href="https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/872/is-there-a-upper-limit-to-the-number-of-planets-orbiting-a-star">Is there a upper limit to the number of planets orbiting a star?</a></sub></li>
<li><sub> <a href="https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/6343/can-you-explain-the-pattern-of-hill-sphere-sizes-of-the-objects-of-the-solar-sys">Can you explain the pattern of Hill sphere sizes of the objects of the Solar system?</a></sub></li>
<li><sub><a href="https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/5990/could-a-habitable-satellite-of-a-gas-giant-have-a-stable-subsatellite">Could a habitable satellite of a gas giant have a stable subsatellite?</a></sub></li>
</ul>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-12-19T07:55:25.903Z
@HDE226868 It is too soon to say the solar system is odd. Lots of 10 year orbit gas giants are starting to be found. It is the hot Jupiters that are odd, occurring in only ~1% of stars.
ProfRob
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-12-20T02:59:06.657Z
@HDE226868: That could be observational bias. Hot Jupiters are easy to find; since they're both massive and close to the parent star, they cause the star to move *and* are more likely to block some of its light.
Keith Thompson
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-12-31T10:32:05.493Z
Ceres is a dwarf planet that sits quite happily inside Jupiter's orbit. There's no reason to assume similar orbits are unstable. On a much smaller scale, Io and Europa have stable orbits inside Ganymede's. The key to stability is resonance. 4:1 and 2:1 for Io and Europa relative to Ganymede, and 5:2 for Ceres relative to Jupiter.
ganbustein
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-12-01T15:32:49.300Z
The orbit of a dwarf planet in the inner planetary system is almost certainly chaotic and hence unstable, unless it is in orbital resonance with a major planet.
Walter
CC BY-SA 3.0
2014-12-01T21:20:24.580Z
Our solar system is odd in that our innermost gas giant, Jupiter, is quite far out. In systems with hot Jupiter's, the dwarf planet would have to be much closer in that Ceres.
HDE 226868
<exoplanet><dwarf-planets><solar-system-evolution>
Likelihood of a stable system with a dwarf planet's orbit inside that of a gas giant
Deer Hunter
# Likelihood of a stable system with a dwarf planet's orbit inside that of a gas giant

(Asked by: username_0 on 2014-12-01)

I keep thinking of various planetary system configurations, and would like to know:

* What are the fundamental references based on **Monte Carlo long-term simulation of planetary systems' evolution** that put testable restrictions on the distribution of stable configurations around Sol-like stars (**books, papers, software packages**)?
* How rare is the configuration wherein a dwarf planet (**Ceres**, I'm looking at you) is located in the inner system?

The main question is the first one, in the vein of "teach a man to fish...".

---

Related Q&A's here that do not answer my question:

* [Is there a upper limit to the number of planets orbiting a star?](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/872/is-there-a-upper-limit-to-the-number-of-planets-orbiting-a-star)
* [Can you explain the pattern of Hill sphere sizes of the objects of the Solar system?](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/6343/can-you-explain-the-pattern-of-hill-sphere-sizes-of-the-objects-of-the-solar-sys)
* [Could a habitable satellite of a gas giant have a stable subsatellite?](https://astronomy.stackexchange.com/questions/5990/could-a-habitable-satellite-of-a-gas-giant-have-a-stable-subsatellite)

**Tags:** exoplanet, dwarf-planets, solar-system-evolution
> **Comments:**
> **username_4**: The orbit of a dwarf planet in the inner planetary system is almost certainly chaotic and hence unstable, unless it is in orbital resonance with a major planet.  
> **username_5**: Our solar system is odd in that our innermost gas giant, Jupiter, is quite far out. In systems with hot Jupiter's, the dwarf planet would have to be much closer in that Ceres.  
> **username_1**: @HDE226868 It is too soon to say the solar system is odd. Lots of 10 year orbit gas giants are starting to be found. It is the hot Jupiters that are odd, occurring in only ~1% of stars.  
> **username_2**: @HDE226868: That could be observational bias. Hot Jupiters are easy to find; since they're both massive and close to the parent star, they cause the star to move *and* are more likely to block some of its light.  
> **username_3**: Ceres is a dwarf planet that sits quite happily inside Jupiter's orbit. There's no reason to assume similar orbits are unstable. On a much smaller scale, Io and Europa have stable orbits inside Ganymede's. The key to stability is resonance. 4:1 and 2:1 for Io and Europa relative to Ganymede, and 5:2 for Ceres relative to Jupiter.  

---

## 2 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2015-01-29. Score: 1

I have an answer for the first part of your question, because I looked it up in answering <https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/8827/question-on-the-stability-of-the-solar-system/161973#161973> on Physics SE.

If you want to see what the current state of the art on solar system simulations is you could do worse than watch [Sean Raymond's presentation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dRLvSzDHo8) at "Protostars and Planets VI" from 2013. You can find the actual write up [here](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014prpl.conf..595R). Or from the same conference there is [Melvyn Davies'](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014prpl.conf..787D) review of the long-term dynamics of planetary systems. The talk can [be seen here.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wKY0LuDuIk) This review does contain the sort of information you are looking for. It discusses the past and future evolution of our solar system, as well as planetary systems in general. It presents and reviews simulations and discusses the relevant issues. Both of these guys are excellent speakers.

A brief summary would be that the solar system is *probably* stable for the remaining lifetime of the Sun. However, there is the intriguing *possibility* that Mercury could fall into the Sun or collide with Venus in the next billion years or that Mars *could* be ejected from the solar system on a similar timescale (e.g. from the N-body simulations of [Battygin & Laughlin 2008](http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008ApJ...683.1207B)).


---

### Answer by username_0 on 2014-12-30. Score: 1

This is just a repository of useful links to software and papers along the way.

* [NEMO](http://bima.astro.umd.edu/nemo/)
* On Toolboxes and Telescopes , by Hut and Sussman, (1986) in: The Use of Supercomputers in Stellar Dynamics, Springer Verlag, p 193-198.


---

