Answers.Body: <p>If certain philosophers are correct, Artificial General Intelligence will be, like fusion power, <em>"always twenty years away"</em>.  For the true believers, it is an inevitability, and opinions vary. </p>
  
  <p>It may be most useful to look at the unreliability human predictions in this area.  </p>
  
  <p>There was an article in the MIT Tech Review in 2017 that contained this graphic, based on a survey of researchers in 2015:</p>
  
  <p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/yRlWv.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/yRlWv.png" alt="enter image description here"></a> <br><sub>SOURCE: <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607970/experts-predict-when-artificial-intelligence-will-exceed-human-performance/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance</a> (MIT Tech Review)</sub></p>
  
  <p>Most notable is that AlphaGo soundly bested the top human player in Go in March of 2016, years before even the most optimistic expert projections.</p>
  
  <ul>
  <li>Everyone is just guessing, and we still don't if AGI is possible, or merely a myth.</li>
  </ul>
  
  <p>Nevertheless, recent breakthroughs are promising!</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2018-06-18T16:41:25.790Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2018-06-18T16:41:25.790Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: DukeZhou
Body: <p>Oxford philosopher and leading AI thinker Nick Bostrom defines <em>SuperIntelligence</em> as </p>
  
  <blockquote>
    <p>"An intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills."</p>
  </blockquote>
  
  <p><a href="http://tcrn.ch/2gJR03q" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Here is an interesting article, you may like <em>Tech Crunch</em>..  </a></p>
  
  <p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Artificial general intelligence : Wiki</a></p>
  
  <p>Taking into account current limitations and the amount of progress that has been made in recent years, what is a realistic timeframe to expect an AI that has human levels of cognition? </p>
  
Tags: <agi><human-like><superintelligence><mythology-of-ai>
Title: Is Really "AI" Light Years Away from achieving Cognitive Ability of Human?
UserDisplayName: Surya Sg
ThreadText: # Is Really "AI" Light Years Away from achieving Cognitive Ability of Human?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2018-06-18)
  
  Oxford philosopher and leading AI thinker Nick Bostrom defines *SuperIntelligence* as
  
  > "An intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills."
  
  [Here is an interesting article, you may like *Tech Crunch*..](http://tcrn.ch/2gJR03q)
  
  [Artificial general intelligence : Wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence)
  
  Taking into account current limitations and the amount of progress that has been made in recent years, what is a realistic timeframe to expect an AI that has human levels of cognition?
  
  **Tags:** agi, human-like, superintelligence, mythology-of-ai
  
  ---
  
  ## 1 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_1 on 2018-06-18. Score: 2 | Accepted answer
  
  If certain philosophers are correct, Artificial General Intelligence will be, like fusion power, *"always twenty years away"*. For the true believers, it is an inevitability, and opinions vary.
  
  It may be most useful to look at the unreliability human predictions in this area.
  
  There was an article in the MIT Tech Review in 2017 that contained this graphic, based on a survey of researchers in 2015:
  
  [![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/yRlWv.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/yRlWv.png)   
  SOURCE: [Experts Predict When Artificial Intelligence Will Exceed Human Performance](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607970/experts-predict-when-artificial-intelligence-will-exceed-human-performance/) (MIT Tech Review)
  
  Most notable is that AlphaGo soundly bested the top human player in Go in March of 2016, years before even the most optimistic expert projections.
  
  * Everyone is just guessing, and we still don't if AGI is possible, or merely a myth.
  
  Nevertheless, recent breakthroughs are promising!
  
  
  ---
  
  