Body: <p>Is there any concrete data about the probability than a random person will not end a tournament? (Obviously, the data can be further tallied with regard to age, Elo, rounds, prizes :-) and whatnot...)</p>
  <p>(The forfeit probability is surely easier to compute via a megabase, you can add this data too.)</p>
  
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2023-04-15T19:55:23.837Z
Comments.Text: but the megabase only has a subset of real games?
Comments.UserDisplayName: cmgchess
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2023-04-16T09:07:02.120Z
Comments.Text: @cmgchess: Frankly, I don't know... (From the documentary standpoint, it would make sense to keep such games, it's not that they take much space :-)
Comments.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2023-04-16T12:05:53.620Z
Comments.Text: If they're a low-tier professional and are out of chances to get a prize in the last round, it's 100%
Comments.UserDisplayName: David
Tags: <tournament>
Title: Tournament dropout probability
ThreadText: # Tournament dropout probability
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2023-04-15)
  
  Is there any concrete data about the probability than a random person will not end a tournament? (Obviously, the data can be further tallied with regard to age, Elo, rounds, prizes :-) and whatnot...)
  
  (The forfeit probability is surely easier to compute via a megabase, you can add this data too.)
  
  **Tags:** tournament
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_1**: but the megabase only has a subset of real games?  
  > **username_0**: @username_1: Frankly, I don't know... (From the documentary standpoint, it would make sense to keep such games, it's not that they take much space :-)  
  > **username_2**: If they're a low-tier professional and are out of chances to get a prize in the last round, it's 100%  
  
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  ## 0 answers
  
  