Answers.Body: <p>For over 2700 rated players,  statistically the draw rate is slightly under 50%.</p>
  
  <p>For all over 2200 ,  the rate is just under 40%, statistically.</p>
  
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Answers.CreationDate: 2020-01-24T11:54:27.923Z
Answers.Text: I would like to see the sources as well. Frankly, your numbers look unreliable; I've never seen a tournament between 2700 players with draw rate that low. For example, in the current Tata steel challengers at the moment the draw rate is 60% from 70 games, even though players there are in 2500s and 2600s.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Kostya_I
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Answers.CreationDate: 2020-01-24T15:11:48.580Z
Answers.Text: Data from sites like chess tempo that show W L D % by opening moves and by player levels.
Answers.UserDisplayName: edwina oliver
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Answers.CreationDate: 2020-01-24T03:34:55.837Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2020-01-24T03:34:55.837Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: edwina oliver
Body: <p>I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find <a href="https://chess-db.com/public/research/draw_rate.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this</a> and <a href="https://en.chessbase.com/post/has-the-number-of-draws-in-chess-increased" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this</a> publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure of about 55% for equal 2600+ players. </p>
  
  <p>This strikes me as completely inadequate estimate as far as <em>elite</em> players are concerend. I checked randomly some pairs of top players on chessgames.com, and the draw rate is usually more like 70% to 80% (well, for Carlsen-Ding Liren it's currently 100% with the sample of 9 games). This is consistent with the data that I got by checking some random elite tournaments - they have anywhere between 20% and 40% decisive games, most of them usually between players with larger rating difference. This is also consistent with betting odds - they indicate the probabilities of draw between 75% and 83% for the ongoing Altibox Norway chess tournament.</p>
  
  <p>Is there a detailed statistics on how a draw rate varies with (a) rating
   difference and (b) average rating of the two players involved, similar to one linked above but with a detailed breakdown in the range of 2600-2800? Ideally with color breakdown, so that one can extract data such as "if a 2720 player plays white against an 2770 player, then the probability of draw is such and such"...</p>
  
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Comments.CreationDate: 2019-06-13T23:38:56.977Z
Comments.Text: Why not ask your favorite chess database program?
Comments.UserDisplayName: Qudit
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Comments.CreationDate: 2019-06-14T06:59:35.827Z
Comments.Text: Why not work it out from the rating system using something like https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html After all this is what it is supposed to represent, and players ratings are based on their results one would expect a correspondence
Comments.UserDisplayName: Ian Bush
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Comments.CreationDate: 2019-06-14T07:11:30.377Z
Comments.Text: @Ian_Bush, that's actually where I started. But Elo only predicts the expected score, not the draw probability (e. g., a +6=0-6 score in a match would be indistinguishable from ELO standpoint from +0=12-0). And if I enter, say, 2820 and 2840 ratings in there, it suggests about 60% of draw probability. Which doesn't really match the data - e. g., this model would expect 4 to 5 decisive games in Carlsen-Caruana match.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Kostya_I
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Comments.CreationDate: 2019-06-14T08:45:31.083Z
Comments.Text: @Qudit, first, I don't have access to proprietary databases. Second, from chess statistics papers I read, it is not a trivial task to reliably separate rapid/blitz games. And third and foremost, since there's so much discussion of draw problem in top-level chess, I would assume somebody has already looked in the data.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Kostya_I
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Comments.CreationDate: 2019-06-14T09:24:33.747Z
Comments.Text: @Kostya_I You can do this entirely with free data and software. Recent high level games are available through Kingbase and TWIC. Both can be downloaded for free. You can use an open source program like SCID to crunch the data with needing to buy chessbase.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Qudit
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2019-06-26T05:24:43.047Z
Comments.Text: @RewanDemontay Thanks.  The reason I didn't post it as an answer is because the OP asked for statistics rather than how to generate such statistics so I felt that it wouldn't answer the question.  Maybe I will reconsider though.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Qudit
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2019-08-05T12:11:40.613Z
Comments.Text: See this answer for some draw rate estimates grouped by ELO rating https://chess.stackexchange.com/a/1507/19751
Comments.UserDisplayName: confused00
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Comments.CreationDate: 2019-08-06T07:47:49.227Z
Comments.Text: @confused00, thanks. I am pretty confident, though, that these numbers do include rapid and blitz games. There's no way 45% of games in classical chess are decisive.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Kostya_I
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2019-09-28T22:55:21.160Z
Comments.Text: @Qudit It's not always clear on how to do this.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Inertial Ignorance
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2019-12-26T00:08:14.110Z
Comments.Text: There is NO answer. It depends on the situation too much. Sometimes the event is conducive to draws sometimes the format and players encourage more wins. It will vary with time as players improve. And as they get old and play less good. What you call elite is arbitrary. Players will enter and leave that group.
Comments.UserDisplayName: yobamamama
Tags: <draw><statistics>
Title: Draw rates in classical chess between elite players?
ThreadText: # Draw rates in classical chess between elite players?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2019-06-13)
  
  I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find [this](https://chess-db.com/public/research/draw_rate.html) and [this](https://en.chessbase.com/post/has-the-number-of-draws-in-chess-increased) publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure of about 55% for equal 2600+ players.
  
  This strikes me as completely inadequate estimate as far as *elite* players are concerend. I checked randomly some pairs of top players on chessgames.com, and the draw rate is usually more like 70% to 80% (well, for Carlsen-Ding Liren it's currently 100% with the sample of 9 games). This is consistent with the data that I got by checking some random elite tournaments - they have anywhere between 20% and 40% decisive games, most of them usually between players with larger rating difference. This is also consistent with betting odds - they indicate the probabilities of draw between 75% and 83% for the ongoing Altibox Norway chess tournament.
  
  Is there a detailed statistics on how a draw rate varies with (a) rating
  difference and (b) average rating of the two players involved, similar to one linked above but with a detailed breakdown in the range of 2600-2800? Ideally with color breakdown, so that one can extract data such as "if a 2720 player plays white against an 2770 player, then the probability of draw is such and such"...
  
  **Tags:** draw, statistics
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_1**: Why not ask your favorite chess database program?  
  > **username_2**: Why not work it out from the rating system using something like https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html After all this is what it is supposed to represent, and players ratings are based on their results one would expect a correspondence  
  > **username_0**: @username_2, that's actually where I started. But Elo only predicts the expected score, not the draw probability (e. g., a +6=0-6 score in a match would be indistinguishable from ELO standpoint from +0=12-0). And if I enter, say, 2820 and 2840 ratings in there, it suggests about 60% of draw probability. Which doesn't really match the data - e. g., this model would expect 4 to 5 decisive games in Carlsen-Caruana match.  
  > **username_0**: @username_1, first, I don't have access to proprietary databases. Second, from chess statistics papers I read, it is not a trivial task to reliably separate rapid/blitz games. And third and foremost, since there's so much discussion of draw problem in top-level chess, I would assume somebody has already looked in the data.  
  > **username_1**: @username_0 You can do this entirely with free data and software. Recent high level games are available through Kingbase and TWIC. Both can be downloaded for free. You can use an open source program like SCID to crunch the data with needing to buy chessbase.  
  > **username_1**: @RewanDemontay Thanks.  The reason I didn't post it as an answer is because the OP asked for statistics rather than how to generate such statistics so I felt that it wouldn't answer the question.  Maybe I will reconsider though.  
  > **username_3**: See this answer for some draw rate estimates grouped by ELO rating https://chess.stackexchange.com/a/1507/19751  
  > **username_0**: @username_3, thanks. I am pretty confident, though, that these numbers do include rapid and blitz games. There's no way 45% of games in classical chess are decisive.  
  > **username_4**: @username_1 It's not always clear on how to do this.  
  > **username_5**: There is NO answer. It depends on the situation too much. Sometimes the event is conducive to draws sometimes the format and players encourage more wins. It will vary with time as players improve. And as they get old and play less good. What you call elite is arbitrary. Players will enter and leave that group.  
  
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  ## 1 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_6 on 2020-01-24. Score: 1
  
  For over 2700 rated players, statistically the draw rate is slightly under 50%.
  
  For all over 2200 , the rate is just under 40%, statistically.
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_0**: I would like to see the sources as well. Frankly, your numbers look unreliable; I've never seen a tournament between 2700 players with draw rate that low. For example, in the current Tata steel challengers at the moment the draw rate is 60% from 70 games, even though players there are in 2500s and 2600s.  
  > **username_6**: Data from sites like chess tempo that show W L D % by opening moves and by player levels.  
  
  ---
  
  