Body: <p><a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/40294/variance-of-elo-rating">Too theoretical</a></p>
  <p>If you care to look at my national rating over time (available at the German federation), you might think I bag sand. Nope, that's normal for me. Extreme, but not unique, I guess. Let's tighten the effect down to current GMs.</p>
  <p>Which GM tends to have reproducible the largest differences actual rating to tournament rating, i.e., plays most &quot;unstable&quot;? (Clearly, the young GMs have an &quot;unfair advantage&quot; here since young chessplayers naturally are more unstable in their rating, which is even acknowledged in the K factor. So it's possibly better to exclude young GMs in the phase of fast Elo increase.)</p>
  
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-06-01T09:41:39.703Z
Comments.Text: I have thought that when tournament rating is significantly higher then published rateing that their opponents should be rated using the fast improving player's tournament rating rather then their published rating.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Ian Ringrose
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-06-01T09:44:54.867Z
Comments.Text: May wish to consider if the GM qualified on norms before their published rating had enough games to catch up to their true rating.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Ian Ringrose
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-06-01T21:22:46.277Z
Comments.Text: At the highest level, someone like Morozevich was capable of playing like a genius in a tournament with a performance of 2850, and tilting with -3 in the next one...
Comments.UserDisplayName: Evargalo
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-06-02T07:41:14.080Z
Comments.Text: @Evargalo: If this stands to statistical scrutinity, it would be a valid answer (and only beaten by naming someone even more "unstable").
Comments.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-06-06T00:13:48.010Z
Comments.Text: I think it's called sandbagging not bag sanding
Comments.UserDisplayName: Lucenaposition
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-06-06T07:40:59.367Z
Comments.Text: @Lucenaposition: Correct, but English grammar is once on my side, even if "to bag sand" was a jocular reordering of mine. (Amusingly, the phrase goes "to sand-bag"; I do sand my bag when holidaying at the Baltic Sea but to have sandbags, you have to bag the sand first. Everything clear? :-)
Comments.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
Tags: <rating>
Title: Largest Elo variance for a GM
ThreadText: # Largest Elo variance for a GM
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2024-06-01)
  
  [Too theoretical](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/40294/variance-of-elo-rating)
  
  If you care to look at my national rating over time (available at the German federation), you might think I bag sand. Nope, that's normal for me. Extreme, but not unique, I guess. Let's tighten the effect down to current GMs.
  
  Which GM tends to have reproducible the largest differences actual rating to tournament rating, i.e., plays most "unstable"? (Clearly, the young GMs have an "unfair advantage" here since young chessplayers naturally are more unstable in their rating, which is even acknowledged in the K factor. So it's possibly better to exclude young GMs in the phase of fast Elo increase.)
  
  **Tags:** rating
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_1**: I have thought that when tournament rating is significantly higher then published rateing that their opponents should be rated using the fast improving player's tournament rating rather then their published rating.  
  > **username_1**: May wish to consider if the GM qualified on norms before their published rating had enough games to catch up to their true rating.  
  > **username_2**: At the highest level, someone like Morozevich was capable of playing like a genius in a tournament with a performance of 2850, and tilting with -3 in the next one...  
  > **username_0**: @username_2: If this stands to statistical scrutinity, it would be a valid answer (and only beaten by naming someone even more "unstable").  
  > **username_3**: I think it's called sandbagging not bag sanding  
  > **username_0**: @username_3: Correct, but English grammar is once on my side, even if "to bag sand" was a jocular reordering of mine. (Amusingly, the phrase goes "to sand-bag"; I do sand my bag when holidaying at the Baltic Sea but to have sandbags, you have to bag the sand first. Everything clear? :-)  
  
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