Answers.Body: <p>Here is a <a href="https://chessinsights.org/analysis/" rel="noreferrer">link</a> to an engine that tells you Expected CP loss and % chance of blundering, depending on your ELO. I don't know how accurate the engine is, but it is effectively telling you how <em>sharp</em> a position is.</p>
  <p>If I understand correctly, sharpness is the volatility you are referring to. If a position is not sharp, then both players' moves will be low-risk and usually straightforward. I imagine in this scenario a draw is more likely. If a position is very sharp, then even though the engine evaluation may be 0, many possible moves can change the evaluation by a few points. I imagine in this scenario a win/loss is more likely.</p>
  <p>Hope that helps :)</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2021-12-03T19:27:19.447Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2021-12-03T19:27:19.447Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: odinchess.com
Answers.Body: <p>good answer of odinchess. here's an illustration of the site:</p>
  <ol>
  <li><p>This pawnless rook vs rook endgame is completely drawn, not just theoretically but also practically. Even new players should realise it is drawn: <a href="https://lichess.org/analysis/k7/r7/8/8/8/4K3/4R3/8_w_-_-_1_1" rel="nofollow noreferrer">k7/r7/8/8/8/4K3/4R3/8 w - - 1 1</a>.</p>
  <pre><code>[FEN &quot;k7/r7/8/8/8/4K3/4R3/8 w - - 1 1&quot;]
  </code></pre>
  </li>
  </ol>
  <p>There are so few ways to make a bad move. Expectedly, the <a href="https://i.sstatic.net/koGzb.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer">blunder chance is 0% even at an elo of 1000.</a></p>
  <ol start="2">
  <li><p>This basic king vs king and pawn endgame <a href="https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/8/3k4/8/4K3/3P4/8/8/8_b_-_-_1_1" rel="nofollow noreferrer">8/3k4/8/4K3/3P4/8/8/8 b - - 1 1</a> is completely (theoretically) drawn, but it's hard to keep the draw if you're completely new. In contrast to earlier, there are several bad (well you can't lose, so 'bad' here refers to 'not winning' instead of 'losing') moves here.</p>
  <pre><code>[FEN &quot;8/3k4/8/4K3/3P4/8/8/8 b - - 1 1&quot;]
  </code></pre>
  </li>
  </ol>
  <p>The <a href="https://i.sstatic.net/PbSyk.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer">blunder chance at 1000 elo is expectedly high at 73%.</a></p>
  <hr />
  <p>Ways the site doesn't seem to work:</p>
  <ol>
  <li><p>Unbelievably, the <a href="https://i.sstatic.net/gVHyE.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer">blunder chance of the pawn endgame above at 2048 elo is 15%</a>. Apparently, Gotham Chess is <a href="https://youtu.be/mCsc24k-Q8M?t=1217" rel="nofollow noreferrer">serious that e was rated 1900</a> without knowing much endgames.</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>Unbelievably, the blunder chance of the recent Ian Nepomniachtchi vs Magnus Carlsen game where Nepo makes a Bobby Fischer (vs Spassky)-like blunder <a href="https://i.sstatic.net/jkT7l.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer">is actually 0% at an elo of 1625</a> and <a href="https://i.sstatic.net/OW32P.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2% at an elo of 1000</a>: <a href="https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/3rb1k1/1Bp2pp1/4p3/4P2p/r1P3nP/1N4P1/P4P2/R3R1K1_w_-_-_1_27" rel="nofollow noreferrer">3rb1k1/1Bp2pp1/4p3/4P2p/r1P3nP/1N4P1/P4P2/R3R1K1 w - - 1 27</a></p>
  <pre><code>[FEN &quot;3rb1k1/1Bp2pp1/4p3/4P2p/r1P3nP/1N4P1/P4P2/R3R1K1 w - - 1 27&quot;]
  </code></pre>
  </li>
  </ol>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2021-12-09T02:15:12.923Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2021-12-09T05:51:27.043Z
Answers.LastEditDate: 2021-12-09T05:51:27.043Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: BCLC
Body: <p>Suppose 2 positions both have 'equal' evaluations according to the engine, but the first position has strong, easy-to-spot moves which lead to a drawn endgame, whereas the second game is  extremely volatile with <em>many</em> (e.g. at least hundreds of thousands) of possible continuations for both players. It <em>may</em> reasonably be assumed the first game has a higher likelihood of ending in a draw, as compared to the second.</p>
  <p>Does any engine exist that can estimate the likelihood of a position resulting in a win/loss as opposed to a draw?</p>
  
Tags: <engines><evaluation>
Title: How to evaluate whether a position will result in a draw vs a decisive outcome?
ThreadText: # How to evaluate whether a position will result in a draw vs a decisive outcome?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2021-12-03)
  
  Suppose 2 positions both have 'equal' evaluations according to the engine, but the first position has strong, easy-to-spot moves which lead to a drawn endgame, whereas the second game is extremely volatile with *many* (e.g. at least hundreds of thousands) of possible continuations for both players. It *may* reasonably be assumed the first game has a higher likelihood of ending in a draw, as compared to the second.
  
  Does any engine exist that can estimate the likelihood of a position resulting in a win/loss as opposed to a draw?
  
  **Tags:** engines, evaluation
  
  
  ---
  
  ## 2 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_1 on 2021-12-03. Score: 5
  
  Here is a [link](https://chessinsights.org/analysis/) to an engine that tells you Expected CP loss and % chance of blundering, depending on your ELO. I don't know how accurate the engine is, but it is effectively telling you how *sharp* a position is.
  
  If I understand correctly, sharpness is the volatility you are referring to. If a position is not sharp, then both players' moves will be low-risk and usually straightforward. I imagine in this scenario a draw is more likely. If a position is very sharp, then even though the engine evaluation may be 0, many possible moves can change the evaluation by a few points. I imagine in this scenario a win/loss is more likely.
  
  Hope that helps :)
  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_2 on 2021-12-09. Score: 2
  
  good answer of odinchess. here's an illustration of the site:
  
  1. This pawnless rook vs rook endgame is completely drawn, not just theoretically but also practically. Even new players should realise it is drawn: [k7/r7/8/8/8/4K3/4R3/8 w - - 1 1](https://lichess.org/analysis/k7/r7/8/8/8/4K3/4R3/8_w_-_-_1_1).
  
     ```
     [FEN "k7/r7/8/8/8/4K3/4R3/8 w - - 1 1"]
  
     ```
  
  There are so few ways to make a bad move. Expectedly, the [blunder chance is 0% even at an elo of 1000.](https://i.sstatic.net/koGzb.png)
  
  2. This basic king vs king and pawn endgame [8/3k4/8/4K3/3P4/8/8/8 b - - 1 1](https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/8/3k4/8/4K3/3P4/8/8/8_b_-_-_1_1) is completely (theoretically) drawn, but it's hard to keep the draw if you're completely new. In contrast to earlier, there are several bad (well you can't lose, so 'bad' here refers to 'not winning' instead of 'losing') moves here.
  
     ```
     [FEN "8/3k4/8/4K3/3P4/8/8/8 b - - 1 1"]
  
     ```
  
  The [blunder chance at 1000 elo is expectedly high at 73%.](https://i.sstatic.net/PbSyk.png)
  
  ---
  
  Ways the site doesn't seem to work:
  
  1. Unbelievably, the [blunder chance of the pawn endgame above at 2048 elo is 15%](https://i.sstatic.net/gVHyE.png). Apparently, Gotham Chess is [serious that e was rated 1900](https://youtu.be/mCsc24k-Q8M?t=1217) without knowing much endgames.
  2. Unbelievably, the blunder chance of the recent Ian Nepomniachtchi vs Magnus Carlsen game where Nepo makes a Bobby Fischer (vs Spassky)-like blunder [is actually 0% at an elo of 1625](https://i.sstatic.net/jkT7l.png) and [2% at an elo of 1000](https://i.sstatic.net/OW32P.png): [3rb1k1/1Bp2pp1/4p3/4P2p/r1P3nP/1N4P1/P4P2/R3R1K1 w - - 1 27](https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/3rb1k1/1Bp2pp1/4p3/4P2p/r1P3nP/1N4P1/P4P2/R3R1K1_w_-_-_1_27)
  
     ```
     [FEN "3rb1k1/1Bp2pp1/4p3/4P2p/r1P3nP/1N4P1/P4P2/R3R1K1 w - - 1 27"]
  
     ```
  
  
  ---
  
  