Answers.Body: <p>I calculated some statistics on games published by <a href="https://theweekinchess.com/twic" rel="nofollow noreferrer">TWIC</a> (issues 920-1437). After some cleaning and filtering of the database (see Methodological notes at the end), I had some 1.7 million games to work with of players rated 1000 to Magnus Carlsen.</p>
  <h1>Castling <em>vs.</em> not castling</h1>
  <p>The first question is whether castling is associated with winning more often. The following table shows the average score in the database for white and black when castling and not castling.</p>
  <div class="s-table-container">
  <table class="s-table">
  <thead>
  <tr>
  <th></th>
  <th style="text-align: center;">White</th>
  <th style="text-align: center;">Black</th>
  </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
  <tr>
  <td>Castling</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.540</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.468</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>Not castling</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.518</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.424</td>
  </tr>
  </tbody>
  </table>
  </div>
  <p>So, yes, not castling is associated with having a worse score in average (no surprise here). Now, this can mean several things:</p>
  <ul>
  <li>Not castling is detrimental for your play (in general).</li>
  <li>The better player doesn't let the other one castle, and profits from this.</li>
  <li>The not-castling player loses before even being able to castle.</li>
  </ul>
  <h1>Castling long <em>vs.</em> Castling short</h1>
  <p>Another question I considered is about the differences when castling long or short, same side or opposite side. The next table shows the results for white. (The results for black are just the opposite.)</p>
  <div class="s-table-container">
  <table class="s-table">
  <thead>
  <tr>
  <th style="text-align: center;"></th>
  <th style="text-align: center;">% White Wins</th>
  <th style="text-align: center;">% White Draws</th>
  <th style="text-align: center;">White score</th>
  </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
  <tr>
  <td style="text-align: center;">O-O / O-O</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">39.4</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">27.8</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.533</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td style="text-align: center;">O-O / O-O-O</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">43.1</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">19.9</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.530</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td style="text-align: center;">O-O-O / O-O</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">44.5</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">19.9</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.545</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td style="text-align: center;">O-O-O / O-O-O</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">41.8</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">26.4</td>
  <td style="text-align: center;">0.551</td>
  </tr>
  </tbody>
  </table>
  </div>
  <p>There are small differences in score when castling one side or the other. The most clear changes are in the percentage of draws: castling same side is a little more drawish. And it is well known that castling on opposite sides brings a more imbalanced position.</p>
  <p>The data indicates also that white's score is highest when both players castle long.</p>
  <h1>The time of castling</h1>
  <p>Finally, a more interesting question is if it does matter when you castle. The following chart shows the proportion of wins and draws for different distances between both players castling. A difference of 0 means both players castle on the same move; a difference of 10 means white castles 10 moves later than black; a difference of -10 means black castles 10 moves later than white.</p>
  <p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/eLECX.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/eLECX.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
  <p>The proportion of draws is greatest when both players castle at the same time. While the proportion of wins increases with the distance between castling moves, with advantage (in average) for the player who castles last.</p>
  <p>Does this mean that castling later pays off? Or rather, that the openings that let you castle later are favorable for you? I'd guess the key here is maintaining the uncertainty on which side you're going to castle, and then castling at the most convenient time and on the most convenient side. Of course, not all openings let you do that...</p>
  <h1>Methodological notes</h1>
  <p>I used a collection of games published on TWIC (issues 920-1437) and parsed them to extract the necessary information using a custom made Python script. I kept all games with a normal result ('1-0', '0-1', '1/2-1/2'), where the Elo of players was known, where the ECO was noted, and with an initial FEN position not specified.</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-06-03T22:30:07.737Z
Answers.Text: Very nice work!  As I said in one of my comments, someone actually doing the statistics here and now, was more than I had hoped for as a response.  I still agree with the points that @IT_M made -- essentially that one needs to be careful not to casually apply these results.  But I think what you've shown here is excellent.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Mark Goldfain
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-06-04T17:24:09.920Z
Answers.Text: @MarkGoldfain Thanks! And sure, I do agree too. In the end, it is the position at hand that matters.
Answers.UserDisplayName: lodebari
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2024-05-29T18:52:34.457Z
Answers.Text: It may be the case that late castling appears to be advantageous because *early* castling is caused by the opponent playing aggressive moves which threaten the king (e.g. early Bb4/Bb5/etc. pins, early attacks on f2/f7, etc.) and force the player into a more defensive posture.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Kevin
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2024-12-26T08:05:40.390Z
Answers.Text: "Several things"...you missed one important case - the non-castling player is a total patzer and thus "forgets" to castle. Classical "A is correlated with B because C causes A and B" explanation.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-06-02T19:36:43.923Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2022-06-02T19:36:43.923Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: lodebari
Answers.Body: <p>Just as you pointed out castling vs no castling win-loss rate depends on some factors like time control, playing style, etc. It is different for different players and would be better if you take a look at these statistics for individual players rather than overall stats.</p>
  <hr />
  <p>Some online chess websites have the option to get insights from your game(s).</p>
  <p><a href="https://www.chess.com" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><strong>Chess.com</strong></a> has a paid feature which you can take a look at by going to <a href="https://www.chess.com/insights/hikaru#castling" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Chess Insights</a>.</p>
  <p>Here are the insights from GM Hikaru Nakamura's games
  <a href="https://i.sstatic.net/eJlYQ.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/eJlYQ.png" alt="" /></a></p>
  <p><a href="https://www.lichess.org" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><strong>Lichess</strong></a> provides you with a similar Insights feature at no cost. You can check it out by going <a href="https://lichess.org/insights/howdymodi/result/myCastling" rel="nofollow noreferrer">here</a>.</p>
  <p>Here are some insights from my games:
  <a href="https://i.sstatic.net/Rnsn2.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/Rnsn2.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
  <p>As you can see the rate of losing the game is slightly higher when you <em>Don't castle</em>!</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-25T16:45:01.350Z
Answers.Text: Does "No castling" refer to (1) not castling in a normal game or (2) a variant of chess where castling is not permitted at all?
Answers.UserDisplayName: SecretAgentMan
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-25T17:41:36.637Z
Answers.Text: @SecretAgentMan (1) Not castling in a normal game.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Abhyuday Vaish
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-26T18:13:50.660Z
Answers.Text: Thanks.  Lacking that there is a wider treatment by some researcher, this is a helpful result.  I think for me, as a rank amateur player, I have often let the opportunity to castle pass me by.  I don't have enough personal data to change this behavior, but I think there is an answer out there, somewhere.  I should plan to set it up and make use of the castling move more often.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Mark Goldfain
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-25T09:03:37.057Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2022-05-26T16:12:15.313Z
Answers.LastEditDate: 2022-05-26T16:12:15.313Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: Abhyuday Vaish
Answers.Body: <p>Your question will by its definition generate useless data, whilest your intent is very useful.</p>
  <p>As @AbhyudayVaish pointed out, there are a lot of paid/free tools available that give you insights in the win/loss rate when castling (or not).</p>
  <p>These 'insights' will lack nuances since:</p>
  <ol>
  <li>There are openings that do have a good reputation when not castling (e.g. the Yuguslav variation of the Benko Gambit Accepted and a lot of variations in the Berlin Defense), so your stats might vary whether you often play those kind of openings or not. Better is to eliminate these games from the comparison.</li>
  <li>Depending on the strength of the opponent not castling might be beneficial to you. (Much) weaker opponents might struggle punishing the lack of castling when it is beneficial. E.g. in my stats I actually have a higher score against weaker players (+5%) when not castling. Better is to only review performance against similar ratings.</li>
  </ol>
  <p>Also note that castling just for the sake of castling (or because the opponent does it) is not the best motive to do it.</p>
  <p>Let's assume we compare to similar rated opponents and we filter out most of those specific variations, then the answer to your question is the loss rate is at least 5 to 10% higher when not castling.</p>
  <p>In short: <strong>there is a clear correlation to not castling and losing.</strong></p>
  <p>Maybe all those chess teachers and GMs are right after all? :-)</p>
  <p><em>For the record: the afore mentioned scores are based on the stats of three GMs and my own, so it's not really statistically representative.</em></p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-26T18:07:50.540Z
Answers.Text: Yes, when I formulated the question, it sounded reasonable.  But now I realize that it is very hard to sort it out.  Like any other move a player might make, it will be embedded in a larger strategy -- and it will succeed or fail along with the strategy.  And finally, whether one can find a correlation with winning or not, clearly castling can accomplish a powerful change in one's attack and defense posture in a given board position, so it should be used when one sees it giving a desired effect.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Mark Goldfain
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-25T14:46:16.897Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2022-05-25T14:46:16.897Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: IT M
Answers.Body: <p>Here is a sample game between stockfish 15 and Stockfish 15 setup with white that cannot castle and black that can castle through the use of a starting position where white castle flag is none.</p>
  <h3>White cannot castle but black can</h3>
  <p>FEN: <code>rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w kq - 0 1</code><br />
  Time control: 1hr + 30s inc.<br />
  Engine threads: 2<br />
  Hash mb: 512<br />
  Condition: Black can castle, white cannot</p>
  <pre><code>[Event &quot;Engine match&quot;]
  [Site &quot;?&quot;]
  [Date &quot;2022.05.25&quot;]
  [Round &quot;1&quot;]
  [White &quot;Stockfish 15&quot;]
  [Black &quot;Stockfish 15&quot;]
  [Result &quot;1/2-1/2&quot;]
  [FEN &quot;rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w kq - 0 1&quot;]
  [SetUp &quot;1&quot;]
  [TimeControl &quot;3600+30&quot;]
  
  1.d4 { [%emt 0:04:19] [%eval -44,37] } 1...d5 { [%emt 0:01:58] [%eval -55,35] } 2.c4 { [%emt 0:00:42] [%eval -44,31] } 2...dxc4 { [%emt 0:00:49] [%eval -62,30] } 3.e3 { [%emt 0:01:52] [%eval -46,36] } 3...e6 { [%emt 0:01:51] [%eval -49,34] } 4.Nc3 { [%emt 0:00:50] [%eval -41,33] } 4...c5 { [%emt 0:03:10] [%eval -54,38] } 5.Nf3 { [%emt 0:01:16] [%eval -38,32] } 5...Nf6 { [%emt 0:01:47] [%eval -62,36] } 6.Bxc4 { [%emt 0:01:41] [%eval -29,35] } 6...Nbd7 { [%emt 0:00:44] [%eval -60,33] } 7.e4 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval -37,38] } 7...cxd4 { [%emt 0:01:48] [%eval -48,34] } 8.Nxd4 { [%emt 0:01:27] [%eval -20,35] } 8...Bb4 { [%emt 0:02:57] [%eval -34,37] } 9.f3 { [%emt 0:01:59] [%eval -33,38] } 9...O-O { [%emt 0:01:00] [%eval -47,31] } 10.Be2 { [%emt 0:01:10] [%eval -36,36] } 10...Qe7 { [%emt 0:04:06] [%eval -38,38] } 11.a3 { [%emt 0:02:47] [%eval -38,38] } 11...Bxc3+ { [%emt 0:00:58] [%eval -43,37] } 12.bxc3 { [%emt 0:00:53] [%eval -32,38] } 12...Nc5 { [%emt 0:04:56] [%eval -37,44] } 13.Nb3 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval -42,37] } 13...Nfd7 { [%emt 0:01:04] [%eval -40,39] } 14.Be3 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval -25,41] } 14...b6 { [%emt 0:01:05] [%eval -47,38] } 15.a4 { [%emt 0:02:49] [%eval -21,39] } 15...Rd8 { [%emt 0:03:15] [%eval -41,37] } 16.Qc2 { [%emt 0:01:27] [%eval -18,40] } 16...Qh4+ { [%emt 0:01:32] [%eval -28,37] } 17.g3 { [%emt 0:01:28] [%eval -11,42] } 17...Qf6 { [%emt 0:01:40] [%eval -22,38] } 18.Nxc5 { [%emt 0:01:14] [%eval -11,41] } 18...Nxc5 { [%emt 0:01:29] [%eval -19,42] } 19.Kf2 { [%emt 0:01:16] [%eval -12,41] } 19...Ba6 { [%emt 0:01:24] [%eval -12,43] } 20.Bd4 { [%emt 0:01:30] [%eval -10,42] } 20...Qe7 { [%emt 0:04:48] [%eval -14,41] } 21.Bxa6 { [%emt 0:01:20] [%eval -20,40] } 21...Nxa6 { [%emt 0:02:19] [%eval -12,40] } 22.a5 { [%emt 0:01:31] [%eval -11,41] } 22...Rac8 { [%emt 0:01:10] [%eval -14,43] } 23.Rhd1 { [%emt 0:02:24] [%eval -9,44] } 23...Nc5 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval -14,39] } 24.Kg2 { [%emt 0:01:39] [%eval -6,39] } 24...h6 { [%emt 0:01:00] [%eval -12,38] } 25.axb6 { [%emt 0:03:05] [%eval -8,40] } 25...axb6 { [%emt 0:01:12] [%eval -12,41] } 26.Bf2 { [%emt 0:00:50] [%eval -6,37] } 26...Rd7 { [%emt 0:01:34] [%eval -7,38] } 27.Qe2 { [%emt 0:01:38] [%eval -6,51] } 27...Rb7 { [%emt 0:03:03] [%eval -9,38] } 28.Qb5 { [%emt 0:01:44] [%eval -10,40] } 28...Qc7 { [%emt 0:01:05] [%eval -7,40] } 29.Rd4 { [%emt 0:01:35] [%eval -8,47] } 29...Kh7 { [%emt 0:01:06] [%eval 0,46] } 30.c4 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval 0,46] } 30...Nd7 { [%emt 0:00:56] [%eval 0,44] } 31.Rad1 { [%emt 0:01:06] [%eval 0,53] } 31...Nf8 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval 0,49] } 32.h4 { [%emt 0:01:13] [%eval 0,49] } 32...f6 { [%emt 0:01:00] [%eval 0,50] } 33.h5 { [%emt 0:01:08] [%eval 0,51] } 33...e5 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval 0,53] } 34.Rd6 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval 0,54] } 34...Qxc4 { [%emt 0:01:15] [%eval 0,59] } 35.Qxc4 { [%emt 0:01:40] [%eval 0,58] } 35...Rxc4 { [%emt 0:01:19] [%eval 0,58] } 36.Rxb6 { [%emt 0:02:03] [%eval 0,59] } 1/2-1/2
  </code></pre>
  <p>Black has the advantage for sure, but could not win it.</p>
  <h3>White can castle but black cannot</h3>
  <p>FEN: <code>rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1</code></p>
  <pre><code>[Event &quot;Engine match&quot;]
  [Site &quot;?&quot;]
  [Date &quot;2022.05.25&quot;]
  [Round &quot;1&quot;]
  [White &quot;Stockfish 15&quot;]
  [Black &quot;Stockfish 15&quot;]
  [Result &quot;1/2-1/2&quot;]
  [FEN &quot;rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1&quot;]
  [SetUp &quot;1&quot;]
  [TimeControl &quot;3600+30&quot;]
  
  1.e4 { [%emt 0:01:45] [%eval 82,34] } 1...c5 { [%emt 0:01:50] [%eval 97,36] } 2.Nf3 { [%emt 0:00:48] [%eval 111,34] } 2...Nc6 { [%emt 0:02:33] [%eval 105,33] } 3.d4 { [%emt 0:03:30] [%eval 109,34] } 3...cxd4 { [%emt 0:00:43] [%eval 100,33] } 4.Nxd4 { [%emt 0:00:57] [%eval 131,33] } 4...e5 { [%emt 0:01:13] [%eval 93,33] } 5.Nb5 { [%emt 0:01:54] [%eval 117,37] } 5...d6 { [%emt 0:02:02] [%eval 102,35] } 6.c4 { [%emt 0:01:01] [%eval 112,36] } 6...Be6 { [%emt 0:01:06] [%eval 107,34] } 7.Be2 { [%emt 0:03:19] [%eval 138,36] } 7...g6 { [%emt 0:05:48] [%eval 116,37] } 8.O-O { [%emt 0:04:57] [%eval 114,38] } 8...h5 { [%emt 0:00:46] [%eval 91,32] } 9.N1c3 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 127,35] } 9...a6 { [%emt 0:01:41] [%eval 90,34] } 10.Na3 { [%emt 0:01:08] [%eval 124,37] } 10...f5 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval 92,32] } 11.exf5 { [%emt 0:01:37] [%eval 142,32] } 11...gxf5 { [%emt 0:01:17] [%eval 93,32] } 12.Nd5 { [%emt 0:01:29] [%eval 124,32] } 12...Rc8 { [%emt 0:01:23] [%eval 100,33] } 13.f4 { [%emt 0:03:08] [%eval 141,35] } 13...Nf6 { [%emt 0:07:48] [%eval 107,38] } 14.fxe5 { [%emt 0:02:38] [%eval 147,35] } 14...dxe5 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 89,32] } 15.Bg5 { [%emt 0:00:48] [%eval 140,36] } 15...Be7 { [%emt 0:01:03] [%eval 93,33] } 16.Bxf6 { [%emt 0:03:22] [%eval 117,40] } 16...Bxf6 { [%emt 0:01:07] [%eval 78,33] } 17.Nc2 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval 114,38] } 17...Bg5 { [%emt 0:03:57] [%eval 100,39] } 18.Bxh5+ { [%emt 0:02:40] [%eval 103,40] } 18...Kf8 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 93,37] } 19.Bg4 { [%emt 0:02:35] [%eval 100,39] } 19...Ne7 { [%emt 0:01:40] [%eval 106,38] } 20.Bxf5 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval 115,39] } 20...Nxf5 { [%emt 0:01:12] [%eval 103,41] } 21.Nce3 { [%emt 0:01:13] [%eval 118,40] } 21...Bxe3+ { [%emt 0:01:31] [%eval 108,42] } 22.Nxe3 { [%emt 0:01:26] [%eval 110,46] } 22...Qb6 { [%emt 0:01:41] [%eval 109,44] } 23.Qb3 { [%emt 0:01:31] [%eval 109,42] } 23...Qxb3 { [%emt 0:01:15] [%eval 97,48] } 24.axb3 { [%emt 0:01:33] [%eval 99,44] } 24...Rh5 { [%emt 0:01:36] [%eval 94,46] } 25.g4 { [%emt 0:01:15] [%eval 122,45] } 25...Rg5 { [%emt 0:01:20] [%eval 93,49] } 26.Ra5 { [%emt 0:02:09] [%eval 99,47] } 26...Ke8 { [%emt 0:01:19] [%eval 95,48] } 27.Rxe5 { [%emt 0:01:16] [%eval 99,51] } 27...Kd7 { [%emt 0:01:04] [%eval 99,47] } 28.Rd1+ { [%emt 0:01:08] [%eval 98,52] } 28...Kc7 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval 90,51] } 29.Rxe6 { [%emt 0:01:24] [%eval 98,49] } 29...Nxe3 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval 90,50] } 30.Rxe3 { [%emt 0:01:03] [%eval 98,54] } 30...Rxg4+ { [%emt 0:01:19] [%eval 90,50] } 31.Rg3 { [%emt 0:01:12] [%eval 98,54] } 31...Rh4 { [%emt 0:11:53] [%eval 89,51] } 32.Rg7+ { [%emt 0:02:37] [%eval 97,51] } 32...Kb6 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 33,34] } 33.Rdd7 { [%emt 0:04:29] [%eval 95,38] } 33...Rb8 { [%emt 0:00:46] [%eval 32,37] } 34.Rg3 { [%emt 0:07:18] [%eval 28,45] } 34...Re8 { [%emt 0:01:04] [%eval 10,37] } 35.Rd2 { [%emt 0:01:56] [%eval 12,43] } 35...Re7 { [%emt 0:01:58] [%eval 9,40] } 36.h3 { [%emt 0:00:21] [%eval 12,39] } 36...Kc5 { [%emt 0:00:43] [%eval 4,44] } 37.Kf2 { [%emt 0:00:41] [%eval 10,38] } 37...Rf4+ { [%emt 0:01:20] [%eval 3,49] } 38.Kg2 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 8,51] } 38...Kb4 { [%emt 0:00:56] [%eval 3,52] } 39.Rc3 { [%emt 0:00:30] [%eval 8,45] } 39...Rfe4 { [%emt 0:00:53] [%eval 3,46] } 40.Kf2 { [%emt 0:00:31] [%eval 7,43] } 40...Rf4+ { [%emt 0:00:37] [%eval 3,51] } 41.Kg3 { [%emt 0:00:37] [%eval 7,46] } 41...Rfe4 { [%emt 0:00:37] [%eval 3,50] } 42.Rf3 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 7,46] } 42...Re1 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 3,50] } 43.Kg2 { [%emt 0:00:40] [%eval 7,46] } 43...Rg7+ { [%emt 0:00:30] [%eval 2,47] } 44.Kh2 { [%emt 0:00:27] [%eval 0,47] } 44...Rge7 { [%emt 0:00:35] [%eval 2,48] } 45.Rg2 { [%emt 0:00:26] [%eval 0,47] } 45...Rd1 { [%emt 0:00:43] [%eval 2,47] } 46.h4 { [%emt 0:00:39] [%eval 0,49] } 46...Rh7 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 0,52] } 47.Rh3 { [%emt 0:00:58] [%eval 0,50] } 47...Re1 { [%emt 0:00:28] [%eval 0,54] } 48.h5 { [%emt 0:00:31] [%eval 0,54] } 48...Re5 { [%emt 0:00:29] [%eval 0,57] } 49.h6 { [%emt 0:00:25] [%eval 0,55] } 49...Re6 { [%emt 0:00:30] [%eval 0,62] } 50.Rg7 { [%emt 0:00:40] [%eval 0,59] } 50...Rhxh6 { [%emt 0:00:47] [%eval 0,64] } 51.Rxb7+ { [%emt 0:00:22] [%eval 0,52] } 51...Rb6 { [%emt 0:00:40] [%eval 0,65] } 52.Rxb6+ { [%emt 0:00:25] [%eval 0,59] } 52...Rxb6 { [%emt 0:00:27] [%eval 0,63] } 53.Kg2 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 0,60] } 53...Rd6 { [%emt 0:00:27] [%eval 0,61] } 54.Kf2 { [%emt 0:00:23] [%eval 0,60] } 54...Re6 { [%emt 0:00:26] [%eval 0,63] } 1/2-1/2
  </code></pre>
  <p>Surprise black is able to draw.</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-26T17:53:33.400Z
Answers.Text: Interesting variation of the question.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Mark Goldfain
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-05-25T05:33:18.063Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2022-05-25T09:43:34.447Z
Answers.LastEditDate: 2022-05-25T09:43:34.447Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: ferdy
Body: <p>I saw this question:  <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/q/24245/32028">How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?</a><br> The statistics are interesting. The answer states that they do so about 90% of their games.</p>
  <p>So, the move seems pretty valuable.  But this then prompted in my mind the question -- has anyone done an analysis that would further prove that it is a good idea to castle?  I mean, every game is unique, but does castling correlate with winning?</p>
  <p>(I'm thinking of a straightforward ratio, simple differential analysis, a comparative winning percentage in the two subsets. But getting a valid answer might require deeper skill with statistics than I possess if there are subtleties here.)</p>
  <p>Also, I suppose that if one can do this analysis, one could further break down the question into the comparative gain/loss of kingside and queenside castling.</p>
  <p><strong>EDIT</strong>: Sorry if this causes too much discussion of refining my question.  I certainly am inviting someone to <em><strong>do</strong></em> such a statistical analysis, looking for correlations.  But I was mainly asking if someone had <em>already done</em> any such thing -- asking: &quot;Do you know of a paper/article treatment of it?&quot;  (Mind you, not one that just gives advice, but one that calculated some statistics from a game database.)</p>
  <p>If we are going to try to work out the exact formulation of the items that could be measured, and then find a database and use the tools to perform it, that is a much harder question.</p>
  
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2022-02-07T09:20:09.417Z
Comments.Text: The modern self learning AI chess engines are totally dependant on analysing past game and they do choose to castle.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Ian Ringrose
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2022-02-07T14:46:04.540Z
Comments.Text: In chess, analisis is a much more powerful tool than statistics. Analisis has proven that on many positions, castling is a good idea.
Comments.UserDisplayName: David
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2022-02-07T15:40:34.490Z
Comments.Text: A straight forward ratio seems difficult to achieve here: How would draws be treated? How would treat games where both parties castle be treated if there is a result?
Comments.UserDisplayName: GreenMatt
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2022-02-07T22:42:27.247Z
Comments.Text: @SecretAgentMan The fact that 'self-learning' (i.e. learnt by self-play) engines decide to castle is precisely what IanRingrose is citing as evidence that castling is often advantageous
Comments.UserDisplayName: Mobeus Zoom
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2022-02-07T22:45:23.787Z
Comments.Text: cf https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/8856/would-it-be-a-decisive-advantage-if-the-opponent-would-not-be-allowed-to-castle/9130 Kaufman (creator of Komodo and founding father of engine chess) did some experiments to test how much of a disadvantage not being able to castle is for computers. TLDR it's a pretty big one
Comments.UserDisplayName: Mobeus Zoom
Tags: <analysis><statistics><castling>
Title: Has anyone done a correlation of castling with winning and losing?
ThreadText: # Has anyone done a correlation of castling with winning and losing?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2022-02-07)
  
  I saw this question: [How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?](https://chess.stackexchange.com/q/24245/32028)  
   The statistics are interesting. The answer states that they do so about 90% of their games.
  
  So, the move seems pretty valuable. But this then prompted in my mind the question -- has anyone done an analysis that would further prove that it is a good idea to castle? I mean, every game is unique, but does castling correlate with winning?
  
  (I'm thinking of a straightforward ratio, simple differential analysis, a comparative winning percentage in the two subsets. But getting a valid answer might require deeper skill with statistics than I possess if there are subtleties here.)
  
  Also, I suppose that if one can do this analysis, one could further break down the question into the comparative gain/loss of kingside and queenside castling.
  
  **EDIT**: Sorry if this causes too much discussion of refining my question. I certainly am inviting someone to ***do*** such a statistical analysis, looking for correlations. But I was mainly asking if someone had *already done* any such thing -- asking: "Do you know of a paper/article treatment of it?" (Mind you, not one that just gives advice, but one that calculated some statistics from a game database.)
  
  If we are going to try to work out the exact formulation of the items that could be measured, and then find a database and use the tools to perform it, that is a much harder question.
  
  **Tags:** analysis, statistics, castling
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_1**: The modern self learning AI chess engines are totally dependant on analysing past game and they do choose to castle.  
  > **username_2**: In chess, analisis is a much more powerful tool than statistics. Analisis has proven that on many positions, castling is a good idea.  
  > **username_3**: A straight forward ratio seems difficult to achieve here: How would draws be treated? How would treat games where both parties castle be treated if there is a result?  
  > **username_4**: @username_9 The fact that 'self-learning' (i.e. learnt by self-play) engines decide to castle is precisely what username_1 is citing as evidence that castling is often advantageous  
  > **username_4**: cf https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/8856/would-it-be-a-decisive-advantage-if-the-opponent-would-not-be-allowed-to-castle/9130 Kaufman (creator of Komodo and founding father of engine chess) did some experiments to test how much of a disadvantage not being able to castle is for computers. TLDR it's a pretty big one  
  
  ---
  
  ## 4 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_5 on 2022-06-02. Score: 3 | Accepted answer
  
  I calculated some statistics on games published by [TWIC](https://theweekinchess.com/twic) (issues 920-1437). After some cleaning and filtering of the database (see Methodological notes at the end), I had some 1.7 million games to work with of players rated 1000 to Magnus Carlsen.
  
  # Castling *vs.* not castling
  
  The first question is whether castling is associated with winning more often. The following table shows the average score in the database for white and black when castling and not castling.
  
  |  | White | Black |
  | --- | --- | --- |
  | Castling | 0.540 | 0.468 |
  | Not castling | 0.518 | 0.424 |
  
  So, yes, not castling is associated with having a worse score in average (no surprise here). Now, this can mean several things:
  
  * Not castling is detrimental for your play (in general).
  * The better player doesn't let the other one castle, and profits from this.
  * The not-castling player loses before even being able to castle.
  
  # Castling long *vs.* Castling short
  
  Another question I considered is about the differences when castling long or short, same side or opposite side. The next table shows the results for white. (The results for black are just the opposite.)
  
  |  | % White Wins | % White Draws | White score |
  | --- | --- | --- | --- |
  | O-O / O-O | 39.4 | 27.8 | 0.533 |
  | O-O / O-O-O | 43.1 | 19.9 | 0.530 |
  | O-O-O / O-O | 44.5 | 19.9 | 0.545 |
  | O-O-O / O-O-O | 41.8 | 26.4 | 0.551 |
  
  There are small differences in score when castling one side or the other. The most clear changes are in the percentage of draws: castling same side is a little more drawish. And it is well known that castling on opposite sides brings a more imbalanced position.
  
  The data indicates also that white's score is highest when both players castle long.
  
  # The time of castling
  
  Finally, a more interesting question is if it does matter when you castle. The following chart shows the proportion of wins and draws for different distances between both players castling. A difference of 0 means both players castle on the same move; a difference of 10 means white castles 10 moves later than black; a difference of -10 means black castles 10 moves later than white.
  
  [![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/eLECX.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/eLECX.png)
  
  The proportion of draws is greatest when both players castle at the same time. While the proportion of wins increases with the distance between castling moves, with advantage (in average) for the player who castles last.
  
  Does this mean that castling later pays off? Or rather, that the openings that let you castle later are favorable for you? I'd guess the key here is maintaining the uncertainty on which side you're going to castle, and then castling at the most convenient time and on the most convenient side. Of course, not all openings let you do that...
  
  # Methodological notes
  
  I used a collection of games published on TWIC (issues 920-1437) and parsed them to extract the necessary information using a custom made Python script. I kept all games with a normal result ('1-0', '0-1', '1/2-1/2'), where the Elo of players was known, where the ECO was noted, and with an initial FEN position not specified.
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_0**: Very nice work!  As I said in one of my comments, someone actually doing the statistics here and now, was more than I had hoped for as a response.  I still agree with the points that @username_10 made -- essentially that one needs to be careful not to casually apply these results.  But I think what you've shown here is excellent.  
  > **username_5**: @username_0 Thanks! And sure, I do agree too. In the end, it is the position at hand that matters.  
  > **username_6**: It may be the case that late castling appears to be advantageous because *early* castling is caused by the opponent playing aggressive moves which threaten the king (e.g. early Bb4/Bb5/etc. pins, early attacks on f2/f7, etc.) and force the player into a more defensive posture.  
  > **username_7**: "Several things"...you missed one important case - the non-castling player is a total patzer and thus "forgets" to castle. Classical "A is correlated with B because C causes A and B" explanation.  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_8 on 2022-05-25. Score: 3
  
  Just as you pointed out castling vs no castling win-loss rate depends on some factors like time control, playing style, etc. It is different for different players and would be better if you take a look at these statistics for individual players rather than overall stats.
  
  ---
  
  Some online chess websites have the option to get insights from your game(s).
  
  [**Chess.com**](https://www.chess.com) has a paid feature which you can take a look at by going to [Chess Insights](https://www.chess.com/insights/hikaru#castling).
  
  Here are the insights from GM Hikaru Nakamura's games
  [![](https://i.sstatic.net/eJlYQ.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/eJlYQ.png)
  
  [**Lichess**](https://www.lichess.org) provides you with a similar Insights feature at no cost. You can check it out by going [here](https://lichess.org/insights/howdymodi/result/myCastling).
  
  Here are some insights from my games:
  [![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/Rnsn2.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/Rnsn2.png)
  
  As you can see the rate of losing the game is slightly higher when you *Don't castle*!
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_9**: Does "No castling" refer to (1) not castling in a normal game or (2) a variant of chess where castling is not permitted at all?  
  > **username_8**: @username_9 (1) Not castling in a normal game.  
  > **username_0**: Thanks.  Lacking that there is a wider treatment by some researcher, this is a helpful result.  I think for me, as a rank amateur player, I have often let the opportunity to castle pass me by.  I don't have enough personal data to change this behavior, but I think there is an answer out there, somewhere.  I should plan to set it up and make use of the castling move more often.  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_10 on 2022-05-25. Score: 2
  
  Your question will by its definition generate useless data, whilest your intent is very useful.
  
  As @username_8 pointed out, there are a lot of paid/free tools available that give you insights in the win/loss rate when castling (or not).
  
  These 'insights' will lack nuances since:
  
  1. There are openings that do have a good reputation when not castling (e.g. the Yuguslav variation of the Benko Gambit Accepted and a lot of variations in the Berlin Defense), so your stats might vary whether you often play those kind of openings or not. Better is to eliminate these games from the comparison.
  2. Depending on the strength of the opponent not castling might be beneficial to you. (Much) weaker opponents might struggle punishing the lack of castling when it is beneficial. E.g. in my stats I actually have a higher score against weaker players (+5%) when not castling. Better is to only review performance against similar ratings.
  
  Also note that castling just for the sake of castling (or because the opponent does it) is not the best motive to do it.
  
  Let's assume we compare to similar rated opponents and we filter out most of those specific variations, then the answer to your question is the loss rate is at least 5 to 10% higher when not castling.
  
  In short: **there is a clear correlation to not castling and losing.**
  
  Maybe all those chess teachers and GMs are right after all? :-)
  
  *For the record: the afore mentioned scores are based on the stats of three GMs and my own, so it's not really statistically representative.*
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_0**: Yes, when I formulated the question, it sounded reasonable.  But now I realize that it is very hard to sort it out.  Like any other move a player might make, it will be embedded in a larger strategy -- and it will succeed or fail along with the strategy.  And finally, whether one can find a correlation with winning or not, clearly castling can accomplish a powerful change in one's attack and defense posture in a given board position, so it should be used when one sees it giving a desired effect.  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_11 on 2022-05-25. Score: 1
  
  Here is a sample game between stockfish 15 and Stockfish 15 setup with white that cannot castle and black that can castle through the use of a starting position where white castle flag is none.
  
  ### White cannot castle but black can
  
  FEN: `rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w kq - 0 1`  
  Time control: 1hr + 30s inc.  
  Engine threads: 2  
  Hash mb: 512  
  Condition: Black can castle, white cannot
  
  ```
  [Event "Engine match"]
  [Site "?"]
  [Date "2022.05.25"]
  [Round "1"]
  [White "Stockfish 15"]
  [Black "Stockfish 15"]
  [Result "1/2-1/2"]
  [FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w kq - 0 1"]
  [SetUp "1"]
  [TimeControl "3600+30"]
  
  1.d4 { [%emt 0:04:19] [%eval -44,37] } 1...d5 { [%emt 0:01:58] [%eval -55,35] } 2.c4 { [%emt 0:00:42] [%eval -44,31] } 2...dxc4 { [%emt 0:00:49] [%eval -62,30] } 3.e3 { [%emt 0:01:52] [%eval -46,36] } 3...e6 { [%emt 0:01:51] [%eval -49,34] } 4.Nc3 { [%emt 0:00:50] [%eval -41,33] } 4...c5 { [%emt 0:03:10] [%eval -54,38] } 5.Nf3 { [%emt 0:01:16] [%eval -38,32] } 5...Nf6 { [%emt 0:01:47] [%eval -62,36] } 6.Bxc4 { [%emt 0:01:41] [%eval -29,35] } 6...Nbd7 { [%emt 0:00:44] [%eval -60,33] } 7.e4 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval -37,38] } 7...cxd4 { [%emt 0:01:48] [%eval -48,34] } 8.Nxd4 { [%emt 0:01:27] [%eval -20,35] } 8...Bb4 { [%emt 0:02:57] [%eval -34,37] } 9.f3 { [%emt 0:01:59] [%eval -33,38] } 9...O-O { [%emt 0:01:00] [%eval -47,31] } 10.Be2 { [%emt 0:01:10] [%eval -36,36] } 10...Qe7 { [%emt 0:04:06] [%eval -38,38] } 11.a3 { [%emt 0:02:47] [%eval -38,38] } 11...Bxc3+ { [%emt 0:00:58] [%eval -43,37] } 12.bxc3 { [%emt 0:00:53] [%eval -32,38] } 12...Nc5 { [%emt 0:04:56] [%eval -37,44] } 13.Nb3 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval -42,37] } 13...Nfd7 { [%emt 0:01:04] [%eval -40,39] } 14.Be3 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval -25,41] } 14...b6 { [%emt 0:01:05] [%eval -47,38] } 15.a4 { [%emt 0:02:49] [%eval -21,39] } 15...Rd8 { [%emt 0:03:15] [%eval -41,37] } 16.Qc2 { [%emt 0:01:27] [%eval -18,40] } 16...Qh4+ { [%emt 0:01:32] [%eval -28,37] } 17.g3 { [%emt 0:01:28] [%eval -11,42] } 17...Qf6 { [%emt 0:01:40] [%eval -22,38] } 18.Nxc5 { [%emt 0:01:14] [%eval -11,41] } 18...Nxc5 { [%emt 0:01:29] [%eval -19,42] } 19.Kf2 { [%emt 0:01:16] [%eval -12,41] } 19...Ba6 { [%emt 0:01:24] [%eval -12,43] } 20.Bd4 { [%emt 0:01:30] [%eval -10,42] } 20...Qe7 { [%emt 0:04:48] [%eval -14,41] } 21.Bxa6 { [%emt 0:01:20] [%eval -20,40] } 21...Nxa6 { [%emt 0:02:19] [%eval -12,40] } 22.a5 { [%emt 0:01:31] [%eval -11,41] } 22...Rac8 { [%emt 0:01:10] [%eval -14,43] } 23.Rhd1 { [%emt 0:02:24] [%eval -9,44] } 23...Nc5 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval -14,39] } 24.Kg2 { [%emt 0:01:39] [%eval -6,39] } 24...h6 { [%emt 0:01:00] [%eval -12,38] } 25.axb6 { [%emt 0:03:05] [%eval -8,40] } 25...axb6 { [%emt 0:01:12] [%eval -12,41] } 26.Bf2 { [%emt 0:00:50] [%eval -6,37] } 26...Rd7 { [%emt 0:01:34] [%eval -7,38] } 27.Qe2 { [%emt 0:01:38] [%eval -6,51] } 27...Rb7 { [%emt 0:03:03] [%eval -9,38] } 28.Qb5 { [%emt 0:01:44] [%eval -10,40] } 28...Qc7 { [%emt 0:01:05] [%eval -7,40] } 29.Rd4 { [%emt 0:01:35] [%eval -8,47] } 29...Kh7 { [%emt 0:01:06] [%eval 0,46] } 30.c4 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval 0,46] } 30...Nd7 { [%emt 0:00:56] [%eval 0,44] } 31.Rad1 { [%emt 0:01:06] [%eval 0,53] } 31...Nf8 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval 0,49] } 32.h4 { [%emt 0:01:13] [%eval 0,49] } 32...f6 { [%emt 0:01:00] [%eval 0,50] } 33.h5 { [%emt 0:01:08] [%eval 0,51] } 33...e5 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval 0,53] } 34.Rd6 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval 0,54] } 34...Qxc4 { [%emt 0:01:15] [%eval 0,59] } 35.Qxc4 { [%emt 0:01:40] [%eval 0,58] } 35...Rxc4 { [%emt 0:01:19] [%eval 0,58] } 36.Rxb6 { [%emt 0:02:03] [%eval 0,59] } 1/2-1/2
  
  ```
  
  Black has the advantage for sure, but could not win it.
  
  ### White can castle but black cannot
  
  FEN: `rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1`
  
  ```
  [Event "Engine match"]
  [Site "?"]
  [Date "2022.05.25"]
  [Round "1"]
  [White "Stockfish 15"]
  [Black "Stockfish 15"]
  [Result "1/2-1/2"]
  [FEN "rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQ - 0 1"]
  [SetUp "1"]
  [TimeControl "3600+30"]
  
  1.e4 { [%emt 0:01:45] [%eval 82,34] } 1...c5 { [%emt 0:01:50] [%eval 97,36] } 2.Nf3 { [%emt 0:00:48] [%eval 111,34] } 2...Nc6 { [%emt 0:02:33] [%eval 105,33] } 3.d4 { [%emt 0:03:30] [%eval 109,34] } 3...cxd4 { [%emt 0:00:43] [%eval 100,33] } 4.Nxd4 { [%emt 0:00:57] [%eval 131,33] } 4...e5 { [%emt 0:01:13] [%eval 93,33] } 5.Nb5 { [%emt 0:01:54] [%eval 117,37] } 5...d6 { [%emt 0:02:02] [%eval 102,35] } 6.c4 { [%emt 0:01:01] [%eval 112,36] } 6...Be6 { [%emt 0:01:06] [%eval 107,34] } 7.Be2 { [%emt 0:03:19] [%eval 138,36] } 7...g6 { [%emt 0:05:48] [%eval 116,37] } 8.O-O { [%emt 0:04:57] [%eval 114,38] } 8...h5 { [%emt 0:00:46] [%eval 91,32] } 9.N1c3 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 127,35] } 9...a6 { [%emt 0:01:41] [%eval 90,34] } 10.Na3 { [%emt 0:01:08] [%eval 124,37] } 10...f5 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval 92,32] } 11.exf5 { [%emt 0:01:37] [%eval 142,32] } 11...gxf5 { [%emt 0:01:17] [%eval 93,32] } 12.Nd5 { [%emt 0:01:29] [%eval 124,32] } 12...Rc8 { [%emt 0:01:23] [%eval 100,33] } 13.f4 { [%emt 0:03:08] [%eval 141,35] } 13...Nf6 { [%emt 0:07:48] [%eval 107,38] } 14.fxe5 { [%emt 0:02:38] [%eval 147,35] } 14...dxe5 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 89,32] } 15.Bg5 { [%emt 0:00:48] [%eval 140,36] } 15...Be7 { [%emt 0:01:03] [%eval 93,33] } 16.Bxf6 { [%emt 0:03:22] [%eval 117,40] } 16...Bxf6 { [%emt 0:01:07] [%eval 78,33] } 17.Nc2 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval 114,38] } 17...Bg5 { [%emt 0:03:57] [%eval 100,39] } 18.Bxh5+ { [%emt 0:02:40] [%eval 103,40] } 18...Kf8 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 93,37] } 19.Bg4 { [%emt 0:02:35] [%eval 100,39] } 19...Ne7 { [%emt 0:01:40] [%eval 106,38] } 20.Bxf5 { [%emt 0:01:09] [%eval 115,39] } 20...Nxf5 { [%emt 0:01:12] [%eval 103,41] } 21.Nce3 { [%emt 0:01:13] [%eval 118,40] } 21...Bxe3+ { [%emt 0:01:31] [%eval 108,42] } 22.Nxe3 { [%emt 0:01:26] [%eval 110,46] } 22...Qb6 { [%emt 0:01:41] [%eval 109,44] } 23.Qb3 { [%emt 0:01:31] [%eval 109,42] } 23...Qxb3 { [%emt 0:01:15] [%eval 97,48] } 24.axb3 { [%emt 0:01:33] [%eval 99,44] } 24...Rh5 { [%emt 0:01:36] [%eval 94,46] } 25.g4 { [%emt 0:01:15] [%eval 122,45] } 25...Rg5 { [%emt 0:01:20] [%eval 93,49] } 26.Ra5 { [%emt 0:02:09] [%eval 99,47] } 26...Ke8 { [%emt 0:01:19] [%eval 95,48] } 27.Rxe5 { [%emt 0:01:16] [%eval 99,51] } 27...Kd7 { [%emt 0:01:04] [%eval 99,47] } 28.Rd1+ { [%emt 0:01:08] [%eval 98,52] } 28...Kc7 { [%emt 0:01:02] [%eval 90,51] } 29.Rxe6 { [%emt 0:01:24] [%eval 98,49] } 29...Nxe3 { [%emt 0:01:11] [%eval 90,50] } 30.Rxe3 { [%emt 0:01:03] [%eval 98,54] } 30...Rxg4+ { [%emt 0:01:19] [%eval 90,50] } 31.Rg3 { [%emt 0:01:12] [%eval 98,54] } 31...Rh4 { [%emt 0:11:53] [%eval 89,51] } 32.Rg7+ { [%emt 0:02:37] [%eval 97,51] } 32...Kb6 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 33,34] } 33.Rdd7 { [%emt 0:04:29] [%eval 95,38] } 33...Rb8 { [%emt 0:00:46] [%eval 32,37] } 34.Rg3 { [%emt 0:07:18] [%eval 28,45] } 34...Re8 { [%emt 0:01:04] [%eval 10,37] } 35.Rd2 { [%emt 0:01:56] [%eval 12,43] } 35...Re7 { [%emt 0:01:58] [%eval 9,40] } 36.h3 { [%emt 0:00:21] [%eval 12,39] } 36...Kc5 { [%emt 0:00:43] [%eval 4,44] } 37.Kf2 { [%emt 0:00:41] [%eval 10,38] } 37...Rf4+ { [%emt 0:01:20] [%eval 3,49] } 38.Kg2 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 8,51] } 38...Kb4 { [%emt 0:00:56] [%eval 3,52] } 39.Rc3 { [%emt 0:00:30] [%eval 8,45] } 39...Rfe4 { [%emt 0:00:53] [%eval 3,46] } 40.Kf2 { [%emt 0:00:31] [%eval 7,43] } 40...Rf4+ { [%emt 0:00:37] [%eval 3,51] } 41.Kg3 { [%emt 0:00:37] [%eval 7,46] } 41...Rfe4 { [%emt 0:00:37] [%eval 3,50] } 42.Rf3 { [%emt 0:00:52] [%eval 7,46] } 42...Re1 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 3,50] } 43.Kg2 { [%emt 0:00:40] [%eval 7,46] } 43...Rg7+ { [%emt 0:00:30] [%eval 2,47] } 44.Kh2 { [%emt 0:00:27] [%eval 0,47] } 44...Rge7 { [%emt 0:00:35] [%eval 2,48] } 45.Rg2 { [%emt 0:00:26] [%eval 0,47] } 45...Rd1 { [%emt 0:00:43] [%eval 2,47] } 46.h4 { [%emt 0:00:39] [%eval 0,49] } 46...Rh7 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 0,52] } 47.Rh3 { [%emt 0:00:58] [%eval 0,50] } 47...Re1 { [%emt 0:00:28] [%eval 0,54] } 48.h5 { [%emt 0:00:31] [%eval 0,54] } 48...Re5 { [%emt 0:00:29] [%eval 0,57] } 49.h6 { [%emt 0:00:25] [%eval 0,55] } 49...Re6 { [%emt 0:00:30] [%eval 0,62] } 50.Rg7 { [%emt 0:00:40] [%eval 0,59] } 50...Rhxh6 { [%emt 0:00:47] [%eval 0,64] } 51.Rxb7+ { [%emt 0:00:22] [%eval 0,52] } 51...Rb6 { [%emt 0:00:40] [%eval 0,65] } 52.Rxb6+ { [%emt 0:00:25] [%eval 0,59] } 52...Rxb6 { [%emt 0:00:27] [%eval 0,63] } 53.Kg2 { [%emt 0:00:32] [%eval 0,60] } 53...Rd6 { [%emt 0:00:27] [%eval 0,61] } 54.Kf2 { [%emt 0:00:23] [%eval 0,60] } 54...Re6 { [%emt 0:00:26] [%eval 0,63] } 1/2-1/2
  
  ```
  
  Surprise black is able to draw.
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_0**: Interesting variation of the question.  
  
  ---
  
  