Answers.Body: <p>Prize money should not be a factor; it could only raise the player's floor to 1400 (to make them ineligible to win the prize a second time) and we're going to go way past that.</p>
  <p>According to the USCF's <a href="https://www.uschess.org/index.php/Players-Ratings/Do-NOT-edit-CLOSE-immediately.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Rating Estimator</a>, if a person plays in a 5 round tournament with a rating of 1399, and plays 5 opponents also rated 1399, the new rating would be 1566.</p>
  <p>Is 1566 the max? No, because the ratings are calculated with a two-pass system; at least some of the opponents' rating gain during the tournament is taken into account when calculating our player's score. Let's say the opponents all end up with a score of 4.0 (losing only to our player), and all of their opponents are also rated 1399. They would end up with a first-pass new rating of 1487. So our player's rating would now be based on beating 5 opponents with a rating of 1487 instead of 1399. This would result in our player getting a rating of 1615.</p>
  <p>Is 1615 the max? No. The above calculation assumed that all of the opponents had an established rating. But the question only specified that our player has an established rating, <em>not</em> that the opponents also did. If we take the extreme example of the opponents all having a provisional rating based on one game, their first-pass rating might instead be 1599. This would result in our player getting a rating of 1669. If the opponents are instead totally unrated, their first-pass rating from scoring 4.0 against players rated 1399 would be 1639. This would result in our player getting a rating of 1684.</p>
  <p>Is 1684 the max? No, it still isn't. There is no guarantee that the players in the under-1400 section don't actually have a rating of over 1400 at the time of the tournament. According to the USCF, &quot;Official ratings lists are generated on the 3rd Wednesday of each month and become official on the 1st day of the next month.&quot; If a tournament begins on July 31, it is going to be using a ratings list that was generated as early as June 15, potentially giving the players over six weeks to play other games and improve their rating while still remaining eligible for the under-1400 tournament. I am going to assume that <em>our</em> player still has a rating of under 1400 before the tournament (because otherwise there would not be <em>any</em> real limit.) But if the opponents get an arbitrarily large rating before the tournament (2800 would suffice), our player could get a rating as high as 1764.</p>
  <p>1764, then, should be the limit if we assume our player has kept their rating below 1400 rating before the tournament. If we believe the estimator. But...</p>
  <p>The ratings estimator claims to be current, but it seems to be out of date. The USCF changed the bonus threshold from 14 to 12 last year, making it slightly easier to get bonus points, but has not updated the estimator. The link on the estimator page to the old estimator, which actually would have the correct threshold, just redirects to the new one, unfortunately. But I calculate the difference in this case to be 2 times the square root of 5, or about 4.47 points. If we use the new bonus threshold, by my calculations, the new limit would be 1768.</p>
  <p>So 1768 seems to be the absolute limit (with the current rating formula), increasing the 1399 rating by a whopping 369 points in a single 5-game tournament.</p>
  
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Answers.CreationDate: 2024-10-16T05:54:15.660Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2024-10-16T05:54:15.660Z
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Body: <p>Assume a player is over 18, and has played 40 UCSF rated games. Then the player wins 5 games in a 5 round under 1400 swiss, what is the max possible rating of the player after the tournament?  (Assume low price money.)</p>
  <hr />
  <p>(This question is more interesting then on 1st sight as an answer will have to explain the rating bonus system for doing a lot better the expected.  Remember other players may also get a rating bonus.  And there may be unrated players.)</p>
  
Tags: <rating><tournament><uscf>
Title: What the max possible USCF rating of a player after playing in an under 1400 tournament?
ThreadText: # What the max possible USCF rating of a player after playing in an under 1400 tournament?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2024-05-29)
  
  Assume a player is over 18, and has played 40 UCSF rated games. Then the player wins 5 games in a 5 round under 1400 swiss, what is the max possible rating of the player after the tournament? (Assume low price money.)
  
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  (This question is more interesting then on 1st sight as an answer will have to explain the rating bonus system for doing a lot better the expected. Remember other players may also get a rating bonus. And there may be unrated players.)
  
  **Tags:** rating, tournament, uscf
  
  
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  ## 1 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_1 on 2024-10-16. Score: 3
  
  Prize money should not be a factor; it could only raise the player's floor to 1400 (to make them ineligible to win the prize a second time) and we're going to go way past that.
  
  According to the USCF's [Rating Estimator](https://www.uschess.org/index.php/Players-Ratings/Do-NOT-edit-CLOSE-immediately.html), if a person plays in a 5 round tournament with a rating of 1399, and plays 5 opponents also rated 1399, the new rating would be 1566.
  
  Is 1566 the max? No, because the ratings are calculated with a two-pass system; at least some of the opponents' rating gain during the tournament is taken into account when calculating our player's score. Let's say the opponents all end up with a score of 4.0 (losing only to our player), and all of their opponents are also rated 1399. They would end up with a first-pass new rating of 1487. So our player's rating would now be based on beating 5 opponents with a rating of 1487 instead of 1399. This would result in our player getting a rating of 1615.
  
  Is 1615 the max? No. The above calculation assumed that all of the opponents had an established rating. But the question only specified that our player has an established rating, *not* that the opponents also did. If we take the extreme example of the opponents all having a provisional rating based on one game, their first-pass rating might instead be 1599. This would result in our player getting a rating of 1669. If the opponents are instead totally unrated, their first-pass rating from scoring 4.0 against players rated 1399 would be 1639. This would result in our player getting a rating of 1684.
  
  Is 1684 the max? No, it still isn't. There is no guarantee that the players in the under-1400 section don't actually have a rating of over 1400 at the time of the tournament. According to the USCF, "Official ratings lists are generated on the 3rd Wednesday of each month and become official on the 1st day of the next month." If a tournament begins on July 31, it is going to be using a ratings list that was generated as early as June 15, potentially giving the players over six weeks to play other games and improve their rating while still remaining eligible for the under-1400 tournament. I am going to assume that *our* player still has a rating of under 1400 before the tournament (because otherwise there would not be *any* real limit.) But if the opponents get an arbitrarily large rating before the tournament (2800 would suffice), our player could get a rating as high as 1764.
  
  1764, then, should be the limit if we assume our player has kept their rating below 1400 rating before the tournament. If we believe the estimator. But...
  
  The ratings estimator claims to be current, but it seems to be out of date. The USCF changed the bonus threshold from 14 to 12 last year, making it slightly easier to get bonus points, but has not updated the estimator. The link on the estimator page to the old estimator, which actually would have the correct threshold, just redirects to the new one, unfortunately. But I calculate the difference in this case to be 2 times the square root of 5, or about 4.47 points. If we use the new bonus threshold, by my calculations, the new limit would be 1768.
  
  So 1768 seems to be the absolute limit (with the current rating formula), increasing the 1399 rating by a whopping 369 points in a single 5-game tournament.
  
  
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