Body: <p>In a recent survey (<a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2410839-theres-a-5-chance-of-ai-causing-humans-to-go-extinct-say-scientists/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">https://www.newscientist.com/article/2410839-theres-a-5-chance-of-ai-causing-humans-to-go-extinct-say-scientists/</a>) a majority of AI researchers considers a non negligible risk of human extinction due to the development of superhuman AI.</p>
  <p>Can this probability be computed from some model, even if crude?</p>
  <p>Risk models are used elsewhere, from the return of a long-term investment portfolio given the distribution of yearly return and some independence assumption, to the study of extinction of species in natural environments.</p>
  
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-01-12T13:08:30.863Z
Comments.Text: By development of "AI", you mean "AGI" or "superintelligence", right? It might be a good idea to clarify this, as this always poses questions and leads to ambiguity. Some may consider that we already have "AI"and the development of "AI" has clearly not led us to extinction, at least for now.
Comments.UserDisplayName: nbro
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-01-13T01:11:54.593Z
Comments.Text: The chance of human extinction is 1 in any case. It's just a question of *when*. I always cringe when I see "risk of death". It is certain, no risk at all.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Edificial Inelegance
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2024-01-13T07:58:23.467Z
Comments.Text: The question is what model (formula) yields your 1.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Jaume Oliver Lafont
Tags: <risk-management><futurism>
Title: Can the probability of human extinction be computed from some model?
UserDisplayName: Jaume Oliver Lafont
ThreadText: # Can the probability of human extinction be computed from some model?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2024-01-12)
  
  In a recent survey (<https://www.newscientist.com/article/2410839-theres-a-5-chance-of-ai-causing-humans-to-go-extinct-say-scientists/>) a majority of AI researchers considers a non negligible risk of human extinction due to the development of superhuman AI.
  
  Can this probability be computed from some model, even if crude?
  
  Risk models are used elsewhere, from the return of a long-term investment portfolio given the distribution of yearly return and some independence assumption, to the study of extinction of species in natural environments.
  
  **Tags:** risk-management, futurism
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_1**: By development of "AI", you mean "AGI" or "superintelligence", right? It might be a good idea to clarify this, as this always poses questions and leads to ambiguity. Some may consider that we already have "AI"and the development of "AI" has clearly not led us to extinction, at least for now.  
  > **username_2**: The chance of human extinction is 1 in any case. It's just a question of *when*. I always cringe when I see "risk of death". It is certain, no risk at all.  
  > **username_0**: The question is what model (formula) yields your 1.  
  
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  ## 0 answers
  
  