Answers.Body: <p>TL;DR - somewhere in the range of 15-23% of the time? This rough estimate only involves cases where the underpromotion is immediately possible on the player's move (so not anything like the example of Hjartarson having to see an underpromotion when calculating a variation). Also, the script only returns cases where underpromoting would have made a real difference if played.</p>
  <p>I wrote a script that went through the top games in my big database (sorted by white elo), from Carlsen's elo to an elo in the high 2300s. Out of these 335,480 games, the script returned 206 instances where underpromotion was the best move (and where it would have actually mattered). E.g., if the second best move was still clearly winning, or if they both led to a mate for the same side, these cases wouldn't be counted.</p>
  <ul>
  <li>Note that the script isn't perfect -- I found one example where underpromotion was only as good as promotion to a queen. However, it seems in most of the positions, underpromotion is best and it would have had a significant impact.</li>
  </ul>
  <p>Of these 206 instances, the script recorded 48 cases where the player didn't do the underpromotion. This is a failure rate of around 23%, although note that some of these games were blitz and online.</p>
  <p>Here are some of the highlights:</p>
  <p>Karpov-Korchnoi, Dortmund 1994 (white to move):</p>
  <pre><code>8/Qb3P1k/4q3/P2p4/2pPpbp1/1r2N1Pp/7P/5BK1 w - - 0 61
  </code></pre>
  <ul>
  <li>In this one, Karpov obviously considered the option of promoting to a knight. However, after doing so White should not capture Black's queen! The way to a draw is very study-like. One line: 61.f8=N+! Kh6 62.gxf4! Qc8 63.Qb8!! Qxb8 64.Nf5+, and somehow the knights give a perpetual. This is just amazing.</li>
  </ul>
  <pre><code>1q3N2/1b6/7k/P2p1N2/2pPpPp1/1r5p/7P/5BK1 w - - 1 64
  </code></pre>
  <p>Popov-Mamedyarov, world blitz 2018 (black to move):</p>
  <pre><code>3R4/3b1kp1/5p2/8/6P1/4QP2/3p1K1P/2q5 b - - 7 54
  </code></pre>
  <ul>
  <li>At the time, Mamedyarov was rated 2817 in classical, and so this might be the highest rated player missing an underpromotion ever. Of course, just a blitz game though.</li>
  </ul>
  <p>Alekseenko-Ding Liren, World Cup 2019 (black to move). Note - this is the example I mentioned where my script was wrong:</p>
  <pre><code>8/1p6/p1p2kp1/P3p2p/1PP1Pb1P/R1n2K2/2Bp4/8 b - - 6 50
  </code></pre>
  <ul>
  <li>My script was incorrect here, as underpromotion is not any better than regular promotion to a queen (although at the same time, it's not any worse).</li>
  </ul>
  <p>Hou Yifan-Dzagnidze, Geneve FIDE GP Women 2013 (black to move):</p>
  <pre><code>4r3/1p3p2/p2n1P2/6R1/P4PP1/2P5/3kp1KP/R7 b - - 1 36
  </code></pre>
  <p>Here Black's best saving chance by a significant margin would have been ...e1=N+, although the game would have likely still been lost.</p>
  <p>I also ran the script on the first 380,000 games in the big database (up until somewhere in the 1970s). Interestingly, 65 positions were found where underpromotion was best, but the player missed it in only 10. 10/65 ~= 15% is a lower failure rate than the 48/206 ~= 23% one mentioned earlier (though not by that much), which might seem surprising. One would assume that high elo players in the (mostly) current era would do better than players of the past. But there are two factors to consider here:</p>
  <ul>
  <li>As mentioned before, some of the games in the &quot;high elo collection&quot; were fast time controls.</li>
  <li>Selection bias: the high elo players tend to have high elo opponents, who would try to not go into a position if they saw that there was a strong underpromotion. So for some cases where an underpromotion was missed, it was probably the case that the player's opponent also didn't see it -- which means the position wasn't as trivial as avoiding a stalemate or something like that.</li>
  </ul>
  <p>Anyway, two highlights from the search through these old games:</p>
  <p>The first earliest case: Gossip-Schiffers, Germany 1889 (white to move):</p>
  <pre><code>rnb1r1k1/pP2qppp/8/1n6/3Q1P2/2P1BN2/P1P3PP/R3K2R w KQ - 0 14
  </code></pre>
  <p>And here's a game between two famous players: Pachman-Flohr, Interzonal 1948 (white to move):</p>
  <pre><code>8/4P3/1p2K3/5n2/1N1pk2p/8/7P/8 w - - 4 58
  </code></pre>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-11-26T07:09:24.123Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2022-11-27T05:30:04.763Z
Answers.LastEditDate: 2022-11-27T05:30:04.763Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: Inertial Ignorance
Answers.Body: <p>I do not think this is so unique (e.g., a few days ago, in an friendly online 5+3 tournament, a FM missed a mate in 1 with only 5 pieces on the board, and the game ended in a draw), as you can see here <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwazjIGfp4g" rel="nofollow noreferrer">missed checkmate with ...Qxa3# instead of ...Qc2+ that was actually been played during the game</a>, at min. 50:18 and they realized that only during the post-game analysis around 1:27:20.</p>
  <p>IMHO, we are all humans (even titled players - and the aforementioned FM is very good also at online blitz games) and the example above only shows that (if they are in zeitnot/have some concentration issues) even strong players can miss a very easy move.</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-11-25T03:16:18.530Z
Answers.Text: I definitely agree.  Do you happen to know if there's a citable source, such as a library of games with a breakdown of how often they're missed?
Answers.UserDisplayName: Charles Rockafellor
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2022-11-25T00:41:44.277Z
Answers.LastActivityDate: 2022-11-25T00:41:44.277Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: Marco Ripà
Body: <p>In the <a href="https://www.chess.com/news/view/praggnanandhaa-wins-2022-reykjavik-open" rel="nofollow noreferrer">April 2022 Reykjavik Open</a> two players missed winning under promotions.</p>
  <p>In the first Hjartson probably saw that the forcing line starting with Qf7 would lead to stalemate after the queen promotion but missed that promoting to a bishop would win.</p>
  <pre><code>[title &quot;Hjartarson (2465) vs Andersen (2582) Reykjavik Open 2022&quot;]
  [fen &quot;4r1k1/3R2p1/2q1P2p/5QnP/5N2/6P1/5P2/6K1 w - - 0 1&quot;]
  
  1. e7 (1. Qf7+ Nxf7 2. exf7+ Kh7 3. fxe8=B! (3. fxe8=Q? Qg2+ 4. Kxg2=))
  </code></pre>
  <p>A few rounds later Willow missed an easier under promotion here. Promoting to a knight would have given good drawing chances. The move played led to a loss.</p>
  <pre><code>[title &quot;Gretarsson (2542) vs. Willow (2411) Reykjavik Open 2022&quot;]
  [fen &quot;5r1k/6p1/2p1R3/p1P2P2/P5P1/3qQ2K/4p2P/8 b - - 0 1&quot;]
  
  1... Rd8 (1... e1=N)
  </code></pre>
  <p>In contrast Makkar found the winning under promotion to a knight here. Perhaps it helped that the pawn moved captured a knight.</p>
  <pre><code>[Title &quot;Rajat Makkar (2399) vs Neil Berry (2240) 4th EJCOA IM Norm 2022&quot;]
  [fen &quot;&quot;]
  [Startply &quot;36&quot;]
  
  1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nf3 d5 4. Nc3 Be7 5. Bf4 O-O 6. e3 Nbd7 7. c5 c6 8. b4 b6 9. h4 a5 10. a3 h6 11. Bd3 Ba6 12. Bxa6 Rxa6 13. b5 cxb5 14. c6 Qc8 15. c7 b4 16. Nb5 a4 17. Qc1 Ne4 18. Qc6 Nb8 19. cxb8=N Ra5 20. O-O g5 21. hxg5 hxg5 22. Bc7 1-0
  </code></pre>
  <p>How often do these master level players miss under promotions like this?</p>
  
Tags: <statistics><pawn-promotion><master-games>
Title: How often do strong players (FM or above) miss under promotions?
ThreadText: # How often do strong players (FM or above) miss under promotions?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2022-11-23)
  
  In the April 2022 Reykjavik Open two players missed winning under promotions.
  In the first Hjartson probably saw that the forcing line starting with Qf7 would lead to stalemate after the queen promotion but missed that promoting to a bishop would win.
  [title "Hjartarson (2465) vs Andersen (2582) Reykjavik Open 2022"]
  [fen "4r1k1/3R2p1/2q1P2p/5QnP/5N2/6P1/5P2/6K1 w - - 0 1"]
  
  1. e7 (1. Qf7+ Nxf7 2. exf7+ Kh7 3. fxe8=B! (3. fxe8=Q? Qg2+ 4. Kxg2=))
  
  A few rounds later Willow missed an easier under promotion here. Promoting to a knight would have given good drawing chances. The move played led to a loss.
  [title "Gretarsson (2542) vs. Willow (2411) Reykjavik Open 2022"]
  [fen "5r1k/6p1/2p1R3/p1P2P2/P5P1/3qQ2K/4p2P/8 b - - 0 1"]
  
  1... Rd8 (1... e1=N)
  
  In contrast Makkar found the winning under promotion to a knight here. Perhaps it helped that the pawn moved captured a knight.
  [Title "Rajat Makkar (2399) vs Neil Berry (2240) 4th EJCOA IM Norm 2022"]
  [fen ""]
  [Startply "36"]
  
  1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nf3 d5 4. Nc3 Be7 5. Bf4 O-O 6. e3 Nbd7 7. c5 c6 8. b4 b6 9. h4 a5 10. a3 h6 11. Bd3 Ba6 12. Bxa6 Rxa6 13. b5 cxb5 14. c6 Qc8 15. c7 b4 16. Nb5 a4 17. Qc1 Ne4 18. Qc6 Nb8 19. cxb8=N Ra5 20. O-O g5 21. hxg5 hxg5 22. Bc7 1-0
  
  How often do these master level players miss under promotions like this?
  
  **Tags:** statistics, pawn-promotion, master-games
  
  
  ---
  
  ## 2 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_1 on 2022-11-26. Score: 4 | Accepted answer
  
  TL;DR - somewhere in the range of 15-23% of the time? This rough estimate only involves cases where the underpromotion is immediately possible on the player's move (so not anything like the example of Hjartarson having to see an underpromotion when calculating a variation). Also, the script only returns cases where underpromoting would have made a real difference if played.
  I wrote a script that went through the top games in my big database (sorted by white elo), from Carlsen's elo to an elo in the high 2300s. Out of these 335,480 games, the script returned 206 instances where underpromotion was the best move (and where it would have actually mattered). E.g., if the second best move was still clearly winning, or if they both led to a mate for the same side, these cases wouldn't be counted.
  
  Note that the script isn't perfect -- I found one example where underpromotion was only as good as promotion to a queen. However, it seems in most of the positions, underpromotion is best and it would have had a significant impact.
  
  Of these 206 instances, the script recorded 48 cases where the player didn't do the underpromotion. This is a failure rate of around 23%, although note that some of these games were blitz and online.
  Here are some of the highlights:
  Karpov-Korchnoi, Dortmund 1994 (white to move):
  8/Qb3P1k/4q3/P2p4/2pPpbp1/1r2N1Pp/7P/5BK1 w - - 0 61
  
  
  In this one, Karpov obviously considered the option of promoting to a knight. However, after doing so White should not capture Black's queen! The way to a draw is very study-like. One line: 61.f8=N+! Kh6 62.gxf4! Qc8 63.Qb8!! Qxb8 64.Nf5+, and somehow the knights give a perpetual. This is just amazing.
  
  1q3N2/1b6/7k/P2p1N2/2pPpPp1/1r5p/7P/5BK1 w - - 1 64
  
  Popov-Mamedyarov, world blitz 2018 (black to move):
  3R4/3b1kp1/5p2/8/6P1/4QP2/3p1K1P/2q5 b - - 7 54
  
  
  At the time, Mamedyarov was rated 2817 in classical, and so this might be the highest rated player missing an underpromotion ever. Of course, just a blitz game though.
  
  Alekseenko-Ding Liren, World Cup 2019 (black to move). Note - this is the example I mentioned where my script was wrong:
  8/1p6/p1p2kp1/P3p2p/1PP1Pb1P/R1n2K2/2Bp4/8 b - - 6 50
  
  
  My script was incorrect here, as underpromotion is not any better than regular promotion to a queen (although at the same time, it's not any worse).
  
  Hou Yifan-Dzagnidze, Geneve FIDE GP Women 2013 (black to move):
  4r3/1p3p2/p2n1P2/6R1/P4PP1/2P5/3kp1KP/R7 b - - 1 36
  
  Here Black's best saving chance by a significant margin would have been ...e1=N+, although the game would have likely still been lost.
  I also ran the script on the first 380,000 games in the big database (up until somewhere in the 1970s). Interestingly, 65 positions were found where underpromotion was best, but the player missed it in only 10. 10/65 ~= 15% is a lower failure rate than the 48/206 ~= 23% one mentioned earlier (though not by that much), which might seem surprising. One would assume that high elo players in the (mostly) current era would do better than players of the past. But there are two factors to consider here:
  
  As mentioned before, some of the games in the "high elo collection" were fast time controls.
  Selection bias: the high elo players tend to have high elo opponents, who would try to not go into a position if they saw that there was a strong underpromotion. So for some cases where an underpromotion was missed, it was probably the case that the player's opponent also didn't see it -- which means the position wasn't as trivial as avoiding a stalemate or something like that.
  
  Anyway, two highlights from the search through these old games:
  The first earliest case: Gossip-Schiffers, Germany 1889 (white to move):
  rnb1r1k1/pP2qppp/8/1n6/3Q1P2/2P1BN2/P1P3PP/R3K2R w KQ - 0 14
  
  And here's a game between two famous players: Pachman-Flohr, Interzonal 1948 (white to move):
  8/4P3/1p2K3/5n2/1N1pk2p/8/7P/8 w - - 4 58
  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_2 on 2022-11-25. Score: 3
  
  I do not think this is so unique (e.g., a few days ago, in an friendly online 5+3 tournament, a FM missed a mate in 1 with only 5 pieces on the board, and the game ended in a draw), as you can see here [missed checkmate with ...Qxa3# instead of ...Qc2+ that was actually been played during the game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwazjIGfp4g), at min. 50:18 and they realized that only during the post-game analysis around 1:27:20.
  
  IMHO, we are all humans (even titled players - and the aforementioned FM is very good also at online blitz games) and the example above only shows that (if they are in zeitnot/have some concentration issues) even strong players can miss a very easy move.
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_3**: I definitely agree.  Do you happen to know if there's a citable source, such as a library of games with a breakdown of how often they're missed?  
  
  ---
  
  