Answers.Body: <p>FIDE has regulations that say what happens if the World Champion declines to play in the match: the #2 of the Candidates plays instead. That is what let Ding play in the previous match, after all.</p>
  <p>So if the three were to pay Ding to not play in the match, they wouldn't get to play a playoff, but instead the #2 of the Candidates would play.</p>
  <p>That is Nakamura -- the tiebreaks for the non-first place are 1) Results in tie-break for first place (but there wasn't any), 2) Sonneborn-Berger (Nakamura has 46, Nepo has 46, Caruana has 44), 3) Total wins (Nakamura has 5, Nepo has 3).</p>
  <p>There would not be a playoff.</p>
  <p>But, paying competitors to remove themselves from competition may run into other rules (e.g. around sportsmanship), and could get them banned instead. Then Praggnanandhaa is the clear #5.</p>
  
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Answers.Body: <p>I can see why Ding Liren could want to sell his spot for a million dollars. Avoid having to do endless prep for many weeks etc.</p>
  <p>Regarding the points above</p>
  <p>Ethical and legal concerns: While it may be theoretically possible for players to buy out another competitor in a tournament, it would likely still violate FIDE regulations and ethical standards. FIDE has many rules in place to prevent such arrangements though to be fair I can't off the top of my head know of any for this particular case. But they can and would probably intervene if this happened.</p>
  <p>Unpredictability of chess: Making assumptions about players' future performances based on past events or perceived trends can be unreliable. Chess is a highly dynamic game, and players' forms can fluctuate for various reasons. Gukesh played really well in the candidates and Nepo, Hikaru and Fabi would probably hesitate to gamble $300k like that. I think I read somewhere that fabi made around $300k in prize money the whole of last year. So it would be a whole years salary.</p>
  <p>Financial considerations: Assuming the financial details of tournaments and players' willingness to invest in buyouts overlooks the complexities of chess sponsorship, prize structures, and individual players' financial situations.</p>
  <p>In addition I believe that players who have reached this level of competition are intensely competitive and reject the notion of advancing through monetary means. They prefer to earn their victories through skill and dedication, which is a significant factor in their success thus far.</p>
  
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Answers.UserDisplayName: Þorvaldur Rúnarsson
Body: <p><strong>Edit on <a href="https://chess.meta.stackexchange.com/questions/1206/what-is-our-criteria-for-deciding-opinion-based-questions-are-they-applied-cons">opinion-based close vote</a></strong>: It's most likely. 1 of my assumptions is wrong. I mean to ask which of the assumptions are wrong. However, if none of the assumptions are wrong, then I think this could be an answer like</p>
  <blockquote>
  <p>None of the assumptions are wrong. Beyond this is speculation.</p>
  </blockquote>
  <hr />
  <p><strong>TL;DR</strong> Liren hasn't been doing so well this past year. However, Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo are not near retirement and can easily beat Gukesh (no offense), so why don't Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo buy out Liren from playing so the 3 can have have a playoff to face Gukesh?</p>
  <hr />
  <p><strong>To be more explicit:</strong></p>
  <ol>
  <li>Assumption: It doesn't say on Wikipedia, but I just assume the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2024 classical WCC</a> will be approximately 1 million USD / euro per player just like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023#Organization" rel="nofollow noreferrer">last time</a> (2m divided 60-40 or 55-45).</li>
  <li>Observation: Liren would've retired if Nepo won last year and hasn't been doing so well since winning the classical WCC. [ Update 2024Jun03 at 2024 Norway Chess - <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gki8ob4zrCk" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Liren blunders mate in 2 to Magnus.</a> ]</li>
  <li>Guess: From (2), <strong>Liren is unlikely to win</strong> if Liren were to face Fabi, Nepo or Hikaru... but luckily maybe Liren still has chances to win now that it's Gukesh (no offense), but still.</li>
  <li>Assumption: In case candidates winner or classical WCC drops out, there will be a playoff between the 3 tied for top 2 - Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo, i.e. Hikaru wouldn't automatically be the replacement on just score tiebreaks.</li>
  <li>Assumption: Re (1) &amp; (4), it is legal under FIDE &amp; civil laws for Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo to buy out Liren in that <strong>each will pay Liren 333,333 to drop out.</strong> It is also moral, ethical, etc.</li>
  <li>Assumption: Re (1) &amp; (5), Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo are able to stake 333,333 given <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqOSdfwMk8I" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Nepo &amp; Fabi are already staking 1m USD</a> to play each other, Nodirbek &amp; Hans in a 4m USD 15+0 tournament</li>
  <li>Assumption: Hikaru, Fabi or Nepo will almost definitely beat Gukesh.</li>
  <li>Guess: Re (6) &amp; (7), Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo will consider 333,333 a worthy investment for 1/3-chance to play for the title (and 1m USD). (Btw, they could even agree that the winner of the 3 pays the other 2 off after playing the WCC. So the winner of the playoff is playing just for the title. Idk. Lol.)</li>
  <li>Assumption: It's not the case that: FIDE realises this and knows by (3) and (7) they'll have a more exciting match this way, and so 'asked' Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo to not buy out Liren.</li>
  <li><strong>Edit to add: Observation</strong>: The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026#cite_ref-8" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2026 ca</a>ndidates reg<a href="https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/FIDE_Candidates_Tournament_2026_Qualification_Paths.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">ulations</a> breaks, I think, a 2 decades old tradition of that the runner-up of the classical WCC doesn't get a full candidates spot (cf classical WCC still does get <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41483/why-didnt-wesley-so-get-full-championship-privilege-in-the-2022-wfrcc-unlike-ma">full ch</a>ampionship priv<a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/39021/why-are-some-chess-championships-defended-while-others-have-the-champion-startin">ilege</a> to defend 1v1). (I say 'full' because the runner-up does get some other privileges in a circuit or something.)</li>
  <li><strong>Edit to add: Guess</strong>: Based on (10), I think FIDE knew from the start that Liren would either lose or drop and so wouldn't want to give Liren a candidates spot. To me, a buy out of Liren now in the 2024 classical WCC is in the same spirit as that the 2026 candidates tournament is breaking such a tradition for the runner-up. If Liren is so worthy to compete the 2024 classical WCC, then I'd think, if Liren were the runner-up, that Liren should be worthy enough to be a full wildcard in the 2026 candidates.</li>
  <li>By (8), (9) &amp; (11), I ask: <strong>Question</strong>: Assuming all the above are correct, why don't Hikaru, Fabi &amp; Nepo buy out Liren after w/c the 3 have a playoff to face Gukesh? If not, then which parts are incorrect, and why?</li>
  </ol>
  <hr />
  <p><strong>Update</strong>: Btw this was discussed on reddit r/chess on 2024Apr21 (penultimate day of candidates I guess) by sanschefaudage</p>
  <p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1c9dwlh/fide_didnt_plan_real_tie_breakers_for_second/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">FIDE didn't plan real tie breakers for second place of the Candidates</a></p>
  
Tags: <rules><fide><tournament><world-championship><etiquette>
Title: Why don't Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo buy out Liren so the 3 of them have a playoff to face Gukesh?
ThreadText: # Why don't Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo buy out Liren so the 3 of them have a playoff to face Gukesh?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2024-05-31)
  
  **Edit on [opinion-based close vote](https://chess.meta.stackexchange.com/questions/1206/what-is-our-criteria-for-deciding-opinion-based-questions-are-they-applied-cons)**: It's most likely. 1 of my assumptions is wrong. I mean to ask which of the assumptions are wrong. However, if none of the assumptions are wrong, then I think this could be an answer like
  
  > None of the assumptions are wrong. Beyond this is speculation.
  
  ---
  
  **TL;DR** Liren hasn't been doing so well this past year. However, Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo are not near retirement and can easily beat Gukesh (no offense), so why don't Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo buy out Liren from playing so the 3 can have have a playoff to face Gukesh?
  
  ---
  
  **To be more explicit:**
  
  1. Assumption: It doesn't say on Wikipedia, but I just assume the [2024 classical WCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) will be approximately 1 million USD / euro per player just like [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023#Organization) (2m divided 60-40 or 55-45).
  2. Observation: Liren would've retired if Nepo won last year and hasn't been doing so well since winning the classical WCC. [ Update 2024Jun03 at 2024 Norway Chess - [Liren blunders mate in 2 to Magnus.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gki8ob4zrCk) ]
  3. Guess: From (2), **Liren is unlikely to win** if Liren were to face Fabi, Nepo or Hikaru... but luckily maybe Liren still has chances to win now that it's Gukesh (no offense), but still.
  4. Assumption: In case candidates winner or classical WCC drops out, there will be a playoff between the 3 tied for top 2 - Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo, i.e. Hikaru wouldn't automatically be the replacement on just score tiebreaks.
  5. Assumption: Re (1) & (4), it is legal under FIDE & civil laws for Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo to buy out Liren in that **each will pay Liren 333,333 to drop out.** It is also moral, ethical, etc.
  6. Assumption: Re (1) & (5), Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo are able to stake 333,333 given [Nepo & Fabi are already staking 1m USD](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqOSdfwMk8I) to play each other, Nodirbek & Hans in a 4m USD 15+0 tournament
  7. Assumption: Hikaru, Fabi or Nepo will almost definitely beat Gukesh.
  8. Guess: Re (6) & (7), Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo will consider 333,333 a worthy investment for 1/3-chance to play for the title (and 1m USD). (Btw, they could even agree that the winner of the 3 pays the other 2 off after playing the WCC. So the winner of the playoff is playing just for the title. Idk. Lol.)
  9. Assumption: It's not the case that: FIDE realises this and knows by (3) and (7) they'll have a more exciting match this way, and so 'asked' Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo to not buy out Liren.
  10. **Edit to add: Observation**: The [2026 ca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026#cite_ref-8)ndidates reg[ulations](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/FIDE_Candidates_Tournament_2026_Qualification_Paths.pdf) breaks, I think, a 2 decades old tradition of that the runner-up of the classical WCC doesn't get a full candidates spot (cf classical WCC still does get [full ch](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41483/why-didnt-wesley-so-get-full-championship-privilege-in-the-2022-wfrcc-unlike-ma)ampionship priv[ilege](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/39021/why-are-some-chess-championships-defended-while-others-have-the-champion-startin) to defend 1v1). (I say 'full' because the runner-up does get some other privileges in a circuit or something.)
  11. **Edit to add: Guess**: Based on (10), I think FIDE knew from the start that Liren would either lose or drop and so wouldn't want to give Liren a candidates spot. To me, a buy out of Liren now in the 2024 classical WCC is in the same spirit as that the 2026 candidates tournament is breaking such a tradition for the runner-up. If Liren is so worthy to compete the 2024 classical WCC, then I'd think, if Liren were the runner-up, that Liren should be worthy enough to be a full wildcard in the 2026 candidates.
  12. By (8), (9) & (11), I ask: **Question**: Assuming all the above are correct, why don't Hikaru, Fabi & Nepo buy out Liren after w/c the 3 have a playoff to face Gukesh? If not, then which parts are incorrect, and why?
  
  ---
  
  **Update**: Btw this was discussed on reddit r/chess on 2024Apr21 (penultimate day of candidates I guess) by sanschefaudage
  
  [FIDE didn't plan real tie breakers for second place of the Candidates](https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1c9dwlh/fide_didnt_plan_real_tie_breakers_for_second/)
  
  **Tags:** rules, fide, tournament, world-championship, etiquette
  
  
  ---
  
  ## 2 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_1 on 2024-05-31. Score: 4
  
  FIDE has regulations that say what happens if the World Champion declines to play in the match: the #2 of the Candidates plays instead. That is what let Ding play in the previous match, after all.
  
  So if the three were to pay Ding to not play in the match, they wouldn't get to play a playoff, but instead the #2 of the Candidates would play.
  
  That is Nakamura -- the tiebreaks for the non-first place are 1) Results in tie-break for first place (but there wasn't any), 2) Sonneborn-Berger (Nakamura has 46, Nepo has 46, Caruana has 44), 3) Total wins (Nakamura has 5, Nepo has 3).
  
  There would not be a playoff.
  
  But, paying competitors to remove themselves from competition may run into other rules (e.g. around sportsmanship), and could get them banned instead. Then Praggnanandhaa is the clear #5.
  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_2 on 2024-05-31. Score: 1
  
  I can see why Ding Liren could want to sell his spot for a million dollars. Avoid having to do endless prep for many weeks etc.
  
  Regarding the points above
  
  Ethical and legal concerns: While it may be theoretically possible for players to buy out another competitor in a tournament, it would likely still violate FIDE regulations and ethical standards. FIDE has many rules in place to prevent such arrangements though to be fair I can't off the top of my head know of any for this particular case. But they can and would probably intervene if this happened.
  
  Unpredictability of chess: Making assumptions about players' future performances based on past events or perceived trends can be unreliable. Chess is a highly dynamic game, and players' forms can fluctuate for various reasons. Gukesh played really well in the candidates and Nepo, Hikaru and Fabi would probably hesitate to gamble $300k like that. I think I read somewhere that fabi made around $300k in prize money the whole of last year. So it would be a whole years salary.
  
  Financial considerations: Assuming the financial details of tournaments and players' willingness to invest in buyouts overlooks the complexities of chess sponsorship, prize structures, and individual players' financial situations.
  
  In addition I believe that players who have reached this level of competition are intensely competitive and reject the notion of advancing through monetary means. They prefer to earn their victories through skill and dedication, which is a significant factor in their success thus far.
  
  
  ---
  
  