Answers.Body: <p>This is almost impossible to answer, but I would say the pawns that are on the <code>a</code> and <code>h</code> file or more likely to promote, especially if protected by another pawn and rook.  I would say this increases if the king has already castled on the opposite side of the <code>a</code> or <code>h</code> file.</p>
  
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Answers.Text: By impossible do you mean it's a question for which there's unlikely an existing answer, or that it is truly impossible to say?
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Answers.Text: More like an existing answer. It would probably be hard to find statistics out there on which pawns are most likely to promote.  I think an answer would most likely just be a guess.  I think it is safe to say though that the pawns that have the most potential to queen are the ones on the opposite side of a castled king, whether this be the a or h pawn, depends on what side the king castled.  Also remember, that just because a pawn promotes on from the a file does not mean it started of there, it could started off at the c file for example.
Answers.UserDisplayName: xaisoft
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Answers.Body: <p>I have some partial statistics for the question, from the <a href="http://www.top-5000.nl/pgn.htm">Million Base 1.74</a> database, a collection of 1742057 games. 77218 of these games (4.4%) feature at least one promotion.</p>
  
  <p>I counted 49970 promotions for white (54% of all promotions) and 42519 for black (46%). Here are the <strong>destination</strong> square statistics (meaning there is no track of the actual initial pawn square, because that statistic is a lot more difficult to gather), for all games and depending on the type of castling:</p>
  
  <pre><code>White         a8    b8    c8    d8    e8    f8    g8    h8
  all         15.8% 14.2% 13.8% 14.8% 11.5% 11.3%  8.7%  9.8%
  with O-O    15.8% 14.3% 13.9% 15.9% 11.8% 11.2%  8.1%  9.1%
  with O-O-O  17.1% 14.7% 14.2% 10.7%  9.9% 11.7% 10.8% 11.0%
  
  Black         a1    b1    c1    d1    e1    f1    g1    h1
  all         16.0% 14.7% 14.4% 12.6% 11.8% 11.3%  9.0% 10.1%
  with O-O    15.9% 14.8% 14.3% 12.9% 11.9% 11.3%  8.7% 10.0%
  with O-O-O  13.5% 10.7% 10.9%  9.7% 12.4% 14.0% 14.0% 14.8%
  </code></pre>
  
  <p>A few observations:</p>
  
  <ul>
  <li>queenside promotions seem significantly more common than kingside promotions</li>
  <li>column statistics are quite consistent between black and white (except maybe when black castles long)</li>
  <li>castling long increases the odds of a promotion happening kingside</li>
  </ul>
  
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Body: <p>Statistically speaking, which white and black pawns are most likely to be queened?</p>
  
Tags: <pawns><statistics><pawn-promotion>
Title: Pawn to Queen probabilities chart
ThreadText: # Pawn to Queen probabilities chart
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2012-05-14)
  
  Statistically speaking, which white and black pawns are most likely to be queened?
  
  **Tags:** pawns, statistics, pawn-promotion
  
  
  ---
  
  ## 2 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_2 on 2012-05-14. Score: 28 | Accepted answer
  
  I have some partial statistics for the question, from the Million Base 1.74 database, a collection of 1742057 games. 77218 of these games (4.4%) feature at least one promotion.
  I counted 49970 promotions for white (54% of all promotions) and 42519 for black (46%). Here are the destination square statistics (meaning there is no track of the actual initial pawn square, because that statistic is a lot more difficult to gather), for all games and depending on the type of castling:
  White         a8    b8    c8    d8    e8    f8    g8    h8
  all         15.8% 14.2% 13.8% 14.8% 11.5% 11.3%  8.7%  9.8%
  with O-O    15.8% 14.3% 13.9% 15.9% 11.8% 11.2%  8.1%  9.1%
  with O-O-O  17.1% 14.7% 14.2% 10.7%  9.9% 11.7% 10.8% 11.0%
  
  Black         a1    b1    c1    d1    e1    f1    g1    h1
  all         16.0% 14.7% 14.4% 12.6% 11.8% 11.3%  9.0% 10.1%
  with O-O    15.9% 14.8% 14.3% 12.9% 11.9% 11.3%  8.7% 10.0%
  with O-O-O  13.5% 10.7% 10.9%  9.7% 12.4% 14.0% 14.0% 14.8%
  
  A few observations:
  
  queenside promotions seem significantly more common than kingside promotions
  column statistics are quite consistent between black and white (except maybe when black castles long)
  castling long increases the odds of a promotion happening kingside
  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_1 on 2012-05-14. Score: 0
  
  This is almost impossible to answer, but I would say the pawns that are on the `a` and `h` file or more likely to promote, especially if protected by another pawn and rook. I would say this increases if the king has already castled on the opposite side of the `a` or `h` file.
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_0**: By impossible do you mean it's a question for which there's unlikely an existing answer, or that it is truly impossible to say?  
  > **username_1**: More like an existing answer. It would probably be hard to find statistics out there on which pawns are most likely to promote.  I think an answer would most likely just be a guess.  I think it is safe to say though that the pawns that have the most potential to queen are the ones on the opposite side of a castled king, whether this be the a or h pawn, depends on what side the king castled.  Also remember, that just because a pawn promotes on from the a file does not mean it started of there, it could started off at the c file for example.  
  
  ---
  
  