Answers.Body: <h1>I. What players have said:</h1>
  <ol>
  <li><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmQDdnRXuBg" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Fabi says</a> the white advantage is lower. But Fabi's answer might assume the players don't bid and are under</p>
  </li>
  <li><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiianDlRADk" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Danya says the white advantage is lower. Robert Hess doesn't seem to disagree but prefers White in chess960 (as in chess?).</a> Their answers are dependent on that the players <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41525/how-is-armageddon-in-chess-like-fair-cake-cutting-in-game-theory">bid</a> in the 15min vs X min case (where X is the lower bid). Robert's answer also depends on that the armageddon has no increment (<a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41576/is-armageddon-always-without-increment-should-it-be">as usual?</a>).</p>
  </li>
  </ol>
  <hr />
  <h1>II. Statistics:</h1>
  <p><a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41534/what-were-all-the-chess960-armageddon-games-played-in-st-louis-chess-9lx-and-the">Black wins more</a> based on the 2019 &amp; 2022 WFRCC and the 2022 St Louis Chess 9LX. White win rate is only 1/3.</p>
  <p>Total games: 9</p>
  <ul>
  <li><p>White wins: 3</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>Black wins normally: 4</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>Black wins by draw odds: 2</p>
  </li>
  </ul>
  <p>If the <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/22827/are-there-statistics-on-the-results-of-armageddon-games-at-the-gm-level/27203#27203">analogous win rate for white is 50%</a>, then white definitely has a lower advantage, namely 1/3 lower because -1/3=(1/3-1/2)/(1/2).</p>
  <p>But these aren't necessarily meaningful statistics because (besides the low sample size) they aren't quite with the same amount of time because some had bidding.</p>
  <p>As pointed out by GeneM <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/7962/which-side-has-the-advantage-in-an-armageddon-tiebreak-game/8269#8269">here</a></p>
  <blockquote>
  <p>Armageddon Chess is a <em>fair</em> tie-break system only if the two players <em>bid</em> for how much time Black should have.</p>
  </blockquote>
  <p>For predetermined 5min vs 4min, white win rate is only 20%.</p>
  <p>Total games: 5</p>
  <ul>
  <li><p>White wins: 1</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>Black wins normally: 3</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>Black wins by draw odds: 1</p>
  </li>
  </ul>
  <p>Putting aside the obvious elephant in the room of low sample size, if the <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/22827/are-there-statistics-on-the-results-of-armageddon-games-at-the-gm-level/27203#27203">analogous win rate for white in chess <em>for 5min vs 4min</em> is 50%</a>, then white definitely has a lower advantage, namely 60% lower because -60% = (1/5-1/2)/(1/2).</p>
  <p>Also we could look at the bid only games to see if there might be cause to have a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickrey_auction" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Vickrey auction</a> instead of a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-price_sealed-bid_auction" rel="nofollow noreferrer">blind auction</a>.</p>
  <p>For bid, white win rate is exactly 50%.</p>
  <p>Total games: 4</p>
  <ul>
  <li><p>White wins: 2</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>Black wins normally: 1</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>Black wins by draw odds: 1</p>
  </li>
  </ul>
  <p>Of course the sample size is low, but there's no a posteriori evidence here that shows a <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41579/is-armageddon-more-fair-in-vickrey-auction-eg-magnus-hikaru-bid-858-vs-859">need for a Vickrey auction</a> or something.</p>
  <hr />
  <h1>III. Comparing winning bids:</h1>
  <p>I guess it doesn't matter if it's chess or chess960 if the players bid even if the <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41575/is-armageddon-more-fair-if-bids-arent-1-time-only">auction is unfair</a>, but I think one's bid might change depending on chess or chess960. Eg You'd want black (or <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41552/why-would-i-bid-for-white-in-armageddon-in-regular-chess">white</a>) <strong>all the more</strong> in chess compared to chess960 because in chess there's theory (theory helps both white and black I guess) and <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/34723/winning-percentage-white-win-draw-black-win-in-chess960-9lx-in-2021"><strong>more draws if you get black</strong></a>.</p>
  <p>Consider 2 cases where the losing bid gets 15min:</p>
  <ol>
  <li><p>Recently in the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd0Ih0WdY2E" rel="nofollow noreferrer">2023 champions chess tour Airthings Masters magnus vs hikaru</a> that the bids were Hikaru 8:59 and Magnus 8:58.</p>
  </li>
  <li><p>However in the 2022 (<a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41499/why-was-the-2019-wfrcc-called-slow-rapid-when-its-actually-classical-4515-6">rapid</a>) WFRCC finals between hikaru and nepo, <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41534/what-were-all-the-chess960-armageddon-games-played-in-st-louis-chess-9lx-and-the">the winning bid by Nepo was 13min</a>.</p>
  </li>
  </ol>
  <p>There's a 4 minute gap. <strong>The players seem to want black 31% more in chess than in chess960</strong> because -31% = (9-13)/13.</p>
  <h1>III.1. Actually let's do more</h1>
  <p><a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41586/armageddon-how-much-more-desirable-is-black-in-chess-than-chess960-based-on-air">Armageddon: How much more desirable is black in chess than chess960 based on airthings masters 2023 vs 2022 WFRCC?</a></p>
  <p>It's still around 30%. Average is 12.1458333...min = 12min 8.75sec in chess960 (still 2022 WFRCC) vs 9.3875min = 9min 23.25sec in chess (still 2023 Airthings).</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
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Body: <p>I'm not (necessarily) asking which colour is more favoured in armageddon chess960. I'm asking that <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/7962/which-side-has-the-advantage-in-an-armageddon-tiebreak-game">given however much or little white has an advantage of armageddon chess</a>, is this <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/22827/are-there-statistics-on-the-results-of-armageddon-games-at-the-gm-level">advantage lower</a> in armageddon chess960? (But if you can provably show that Black is more favoured in armageddon chess960 and White is more favoured in armageddon chess, then a fortiori White is less favoured in armageddon chess960 compared to armageddon chess.)</p>
  <p>I think White has a lower advantage, at least in the no bid 5min vs 4min case. I mean, <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/37673/why-dont-these-statistics-disprove-whites-supposed-larger-practical-advanta">there's no theory</a>. There's just extra time vs draw odds in chess960 while in chess there's extra time <strong>+ theory</strong> vs draw odds.</p>
  <p>What have players said about this? What are some statistics?</p>
  
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2023-02-06T07:38:37.353Z
Comments.Text: I somewhere read that 960 tends to be more unbalanced than chess, even with some stats, but can't quote a reliable source.
Comments.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2023-02-07T09:00:28.427Z
Comments.Text: @HaukeReddmann https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/37673/why-dont-these-statistics-disprove-whites-supposed-larger-practical-advanta ?
Comments.UserDisplayName: BCLC
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2023-02-07T22:25:36.717Z
Comments.Text: Yup, THX, that was it :-)
Comments.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2023-02-08T07:03:06.507Z
Comments.Text: @HaukeReddmann oh just to clarify this post is about armageddon. i mistakenly didn't say that in the title at 1st.
Comments.UserDisplayName: BCLC
Tags: <tournament><statistics><time-control><chess960><armageddon>
Title: Armageddon: Does / Should White have a lower advantage in chess960 compared to chess?
ThreadText: # Armageddon: Does / Should White have a lower advantage in chess960 compared to chess?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2023-02-06)
  
  I'm not (necessarily) asking which colour is more favoured in armageddon chess960. I'm asking that [given however much or little white has an advantage of armageddon chess](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/7962/which-side-has-the-advantage-in-an-armageddon-tiebreak-game), is this [advantage lower](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/22827/are-there-statistics-on-the-results-of-armageddon-games-at-the-gm-level) in armageddon chess960? (But if you can provably show that Black is more favoured in armageddon chess960 and White is more favoured in armageddon chess, then a fortiori White is less favoured in armageddon chess960 compared to armageddon chess.)
  
  I think White has a lower advantage, at least in the no bid 5min vs 4min case. I mean, [there's no theory](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/37673/why-dont-these-statistics-disprove-whites-supposed-larger-practical-advanta). There's just extra time vs draw odds in chess960 while in chess there's extra time **+ theory** vs draw odds.
  
  What have players said about this? What are some statistics?
  
  **Tags:** tournament, statistics, time-control, chess960, armageddon
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_1**: I somewhere read that 960 tends to be more unbalanced than chess, even with some stats, but can't quote a reliable source.  
  > **username_0**: @HaukeReddmann https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/37673/why-dont-these-statistics-disprove-whites-supposed-larger-practical-advanta ?  
  > **username_1**: Yup, THX, that was it :-)  
  > **username_0**: @HaukeReddmann oh just to clarify this post is about armageddon. i mistakenly didn't say that in the title at 1st.  
  
  ---
  
  ## 1 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_0 on 2023-02-06. Score: 0 | Accepted answer
  
  # I. What players have said:
  
  1. [Fabi says](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmQDdnRXuBg) the white advantage is lower. But Fabi's answer might assume the players don't bid and are under
  2. [Danya says the white advantage is lower. Robert Hess doesn't seem to disagree but prefers White in chess960 (as in chess?).](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiianDlRADk) Their answers are dependent on that the players [bid](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41525/how-is-armageddon-in-chess-like-fair-cake-cutting-in-game-theory) in the 15min vs X min case (where X is the lower bid). Robert's answer also depends on that the armageddon has no increment ([as usual?](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41576/is-armageddon-always-without-increment-should-it-be)).
  
  ---
  
  # II. Statistics:
  
  [Black wins more](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41534/what-were-all-the-chess960-armageddon-games-played-in-st-louis-chess-9lx-and-the) based on the 2019 & 2022 WFRCC and the 2022 St Louis Chess 9LX. White win rate is only 1/3.
  
  Total games: 9
  
  * White wins: 3
  * Black wins normally: 4
  * Black wins by draw odds: 2
  
  If the [analogous win rate for white is 50%](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/22827/are-there-statistics-on-the-results-of-armageddon-games-at-the-gm-level/27203#27203), then white definitely has a lower advantage, namely 1/3 lower because -1/3=(1/3-1/2)/(1/2).
  
  But these aren't necessarily meaningful statistics because (besides the low sample size) they aren't quite with the same amount of time because some had bidding.
  
  As pointed out by GeneM [here](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/7962/which-side-has-the-advantage-in-an-armageddon-tiebreak-game/8269#8269)
  
  > Armageddon Chess is a *fair* tie-break system only if the two players *bid* for how much time Black should have.
  
  For predetermined 5min vs 4min, white win rate is only 20%.
  
  Total games: 5
  
  * White wins: 1
  * Black wins normally: 3
  * Black wins by draw odds: 1
  
  Putting aside the obvious elephant in the room of low sample size, if the [analogous win rate for white in chess *for 5min vs 4min* is 50%](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/22827/are-there-statistics-on-the-results-of-armageddon-games-at-the-gm-level/27203#27203), then white definitely has a lower advantage, namely 60% lower because -60% = (1/5-1/2)/(1/2).
  
  Also we could look at the bid only games to see if there might be cause to have a [Vickrey auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickrey_auction) instead of a [blind auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-price_sealed-bid_auction).
  
  For bid, white win rate is exactly 50%.
  
  Total games: 4
  
  * White wins: 2
  * Black wins normally: 1
  * Black wins by draw odds: 1
  
  Of course the sample size is low, but there's no a posteriori evidence here that shows a [need for a Vickrey auction](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41579/is-armageddon-more-fair-in-vickrey-auction-eg-magnus-hikaru-bid-858-vs-859) or something.
  
  ---
  
  # III. Comparing winning bids:
  
  I guess it doesn't matter if it's chess or chess960 if the players bid even if the [auction is unfair](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41575/is-armageddon-more-fair-if-bids-arent-1-time-only), but I think one's bid might change depending on chess or chess960. Eg You'd want black (or [white](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41552/why-would-i-bid-for-white-in-armageddon-in-regular-chess)) **all the more** in chess compared to chess960 because in chess there's theory (theory helps both white and black I guess) and [**more draws if you get black**](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/34723/winning-percentage-white-win-draw-black-win-in-chess960-9lx-in-2021).
  
  Consider 2 cases where the losing bid gets 15min:
  
  1. Recently in the [2023 champions chess tour Airthings Masters magnus vs hikaru](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd0Ih0WdY2E) that the bids were Hikaru 8:59 and Magnus 8:58.
  2. However in the 2022 ([rapid](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41499/why-was-the-2019-wfrcc-called-slow-rapid-when-its-actually-classical-4515-6)) WFRCC finals between hikaru and nepo, [the winning bid by Nepo was 13min](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41534/what-were-all-the-chess960-armageddon-games-played-in-st-louis-chess-9lx-and-the).
  
  There's a 4 minute gap. **The players seem to want black 31% more in chess than in chess960** because -31% = (9-13)/13.
  
  # III.1. Actually let's do more
  
  [Armageddon: How much more desirable is black in chess than chess960 based on airthings masters 2023 vs 2022 WFRCC?](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/41586/armageddon-how-much-more-desirable-is-black-in-chess-than-chess960-based-on-air)
  
  It's still around 30%. Average is 12.1458333...min = 12min 8.75sec in chess960 (still 2022 WFRCC) vs 9.3875min = 9min 23.25sec in chess (still 2023 Airthings).
  
  
  ---
  
  