Answers.Body: <p>As of right now, the &quot;equal odds&quot; between a GM and an engine is about two pawns. I believe Hikaru Nakamura made that comment at some point <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIQDo0ReY10" rel="nofollow noreferrer">in this match</a> (I did not watch the entire video). For another perspective, <a href="https://www.davidsmerdon.com/?p=2133" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this</a> is what happened when GM David Smerdon played against Komodo with knight odds (GM Smerdon won 5-1).</p>
  <p>Note that two pawn odds (White starts without b- and c- pawns) gives a starting eval of about -3.0, while knight odds (White begins without the b1-knight) gives a starting eval of about -5.0. Comparatively 4-tempi odds (White plays e4, d4, Nf3 and Nc3 at start of the game, before Black gets to move) is only about +2.</p>
  <p>Do note that giving White five &quot;free&quot; tempi <a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/33023/how-many-moves-of-head-start-does-white-need-for-a-guaranteed-win">leads to a forced win</a>. For five non-free tempi, you'd have to analyze the specific position.</p>
  <p><strong>Update</strong>: as of June 2024, top engines still lose to top GMs at <a href="https://lichess.org/broadcast/leela-vs-gm-david-navara-knight-odds-match/match/U8CvXKoW" rel="nofollow noreferrer">piece odds</a> at blitz time controls (see <a href="https://matthewsadler.me.uk/engine-chess/knight-odds-match-on-lichess/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this</a> for writeup), but it's close. The GM can realistically lose some games. At longer time controls, the GM is much more favored.</p>
  
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Body: <p>This question began an interesting discussion on handicaps for engines that play against GMs:</p>
  <p><a href="https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/34326/engine-invented-variations-hypotheticals?noredirect=1#comment54487_34326">Engine-invented variations/hypotheticals</a></p>
  <p>This led me to wonder, are there differences in handicaps in terms of how we measure advantage?</p>
  <p>For instance would a material advantage be preferable to space or tempo advantages?</p>
  <p>Not sure what the success metric would look like, but i'd like to see the mean permutation on what degree of material advantage places the odds 50/50 for engine vs GM. Then compare that board layout to what tempo advantage would be needed to place the odds at 50/50.</p>
  <p>Perhaps if we don't have engines that emulate GMs, we can just use lichess records?</p>
  
Tags: <engines><advantage><odds>
Title: What does an equal odds game look like for a GM vs an engine?
ThreadText: # What does an equal odds game look like for a GM vs an engine?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2021-03-04)
  
  This question began an interesting discussion on handicaps for engines that play against GMs:
  
  [Engine-invented variations/hypotheticals](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/34326/engine-invented-variations-hypotheticals?noredirect=1#comment54487_34326)
  
  This led me to wonder, are there differences in handicaps in terms of how we measure advantage?
  
  For instance would a material advantage be preferable to space or tempo advantages?
  
  Not sure what the success metric would look like, but i'd like to see the mean permutation on what degree of material advantage places the odds 50/50 for engine vs GM. Then compare that board layout to what tempo advantage would be needed to place the odds at 50/50.
  
  Perhaps if we don't have engines that emulate GMs, we can just use lichess records?
  
  **Tags:** engines, advantage, odds
  
  
  ---
  
  ## 1 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_1 on 2021-03-04. Score: 5 | Accepted answer
  
  As of right now, the "equal odds" between a GM and an engine is about two pawns. I believe Hikaru Nakamura made that comment at some point [in this match](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIQDo0ReY10) (I did not watch the entire video). For another perspective, [this](https://www.davidsmerdon.com/?p=2133) is what happened when GM David Smerdon played against Komodo with knight odds (GM Smerdon won 5-1).
  
  Note that two pawn odds (White starts without b- and c- pawns) gives a starting eval of about -3.0, while knight odds (White begins without the b1-knight) gives a starting eval of about -5.0. Comparatively 4-tempi odds (White plays e4, d4, Nf3 and Nc3 at start of the game, before Black gets to move) is only about +2.
  
  Do note that giving White five "free" tempi [leads to a forced win](https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/33023/how-many-moves-of-head-start-does-white-need-for-a-guaranteed-win). For five non-free tempi, you'd have to analyze the specific position.
  
  **Update**: as of June 2024, top engines still lose to top GMs at [piece odds](https://lichess.org/broadcast/leela-vs-gm-david-navara-knight-odds-match/match/U8CvXKoW) at blitz time controls (see [this](https://matthewsadler.me.uk/engine-chess/knight-odds-match-on-lichess/) for writeup), but it's close. The GM can realistically lose some games. At longer time controls, the GM is much more favored.
  
  
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