Answers.Body: <p>A 99% win rate is winning 99% of games played. Carlsen does not win nearly that many games, since at top level most games are drawn.</p>
  <p>Carlsen's <a href="https://www.365chess.com/players/Magnus_Carlsen" rel="noreferrer">overall record</a> in life is +1262 =1289 -454, which means 1262 wins, 1289 draws, 454 losses. He has won 42.00% of all the games he's been recorded to have played, and has an all-time average score of 63.44% (wins are 1 point, draws are 0.5 points, losses are 0 points).</p>
  <p>Another thing is the amount of rating gained or lost depends on how strong your opponent is. If Carlsen were to play a beginner a hundred times, he'd win effortlessly for a 100% win rate - but he'd also gain almost no rating.</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2021-11-12T08:46:18.403Z
Answers.Text: @Allure - even worse, ELO cutoff! So if the difference is <400 (AFAIK), he even loses a bit with 100%!
Answers.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
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Answers.CreationDate: 2021-11-12T19:34:31.467Z
Answers.Text: *If Carlsen were to play a beginner a hundred times, he'd win effortlessly for a 100% win rate - but he'd also gain almost no rating.* 1000% this. Also, if (unthinkably) he were to lose (or even draw) one of those games against that beginner, he would lose a massive amount of points, even with an overall 99-99.5% win rate against that player.
Answers.UserDisplayName: DJMcMayhem
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Answers.CreationDate: 2023-06-11T01:30:59.090Z
Answers.Text: @HaukeReddmann "So if the difference is <400 (AFAIK), he even loses a bit with 100%!" - No. The 400 point cutoff means he gains a small amount instead of zero (although with the newer rules he only gets the benefit once per tournament.) If you have an established rating you never lose points for winning.
Answers.UserDisplayName: D M
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Answers.CreationDate: 2023-06-11T12:37:00.287Z
Answers.Text: @DM: THX, then I always misunderstood the cutoff rule.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Hauke Reddmann
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Answers.LastEditDate: 2021-11-12T13:34:20.507Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: Allure
Answers.Body: <blockquote>
  <p>assuming this implies conservatively a win rate of 99%</p>
  </blockquote>
  <p>There are a number of wrong assumptions in your question. First, at elite levels where players don't often lose it is draw rates that are high. Second, according to the <a href="https://old.fide.com/fide/handbook.html?id=197&amp;view=article" rel="noreferrer">FIDE rating rules</a> if the rating difference were 670 it would be adjusted down to 400:</p>
  <blockquote>
  <p>8.54</p>
  <p>A difference in rating of more than 400 points shall be counted for rating purposes as though it were a difference of 400 points.</p>
  </blockquote>
  <p>In fact over the last two years according to the data on <a href="https://ratings.fide.com/profile/1503014/calculations" rel="noreferrer">FIDE's rating website for Carlsen</a> he has won 40.7%, drawn 54.3% and lost 5% of his games.</p>
  <p>Here are his results from November 2019 to date.</p>
  <p>A &quot;*&quot; next to the average rating shows that some or all of his opponents were rated more than 400 points lower than him and their ratings were adjusted up to give him more rating points.</p>
  <div class="s-table-container">
  <table class="s-table">
  <thead>
  <tr>
  <th>Date</th>
  <th>Results</th>
  <th>Rating Change</th>
  <th>Avg. opponents' ratings</th>
  <th>Event</th>
  </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
  <tr>
  <td>October 2021</td>
  <td>+4=5-1</td>
  <td>-0.2</td>
  <td>2741</td>
  <td>Norway Chess 2021</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>October 2021</td>
  <td>+2=1-0</td>
  <td>+0.3</td>
  <td>2557*</td>
  <td>36th European Chess Club Cup 2021</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>September 2021</td>
  <td>+8=6-0</td>
  <td>+8.4</td>
  <td>2672</td>
  <td>World Cup 2021</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>March 2021</td>
  <td>+3=9-1</td>
  <td>-15.3</td>
  <td>2714</td>
  <td>Tata Steel Masters 2021</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>November 2020</td>
  <td>+5=3-2</td>
  <td>-0.8</td>
  <td>2743</td>
  <td>Altibox Norway Chess 2020</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>April 2020</td>
  <td>+1=0-0</td>
  <td>+0.8</td>
  <td>2462*</td>
  <td>Ostlandsserien 2. div A 2019-2020 R 9-11</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>February 2020</td>
  <td>+3=10-0</td>
  <td>-9.6</td>
  <td>2731</td>
  <td>Tata Steel Masters 2020</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>January 2020</td>
  <td>+1=3-0</td>
  <td>-0.2</td>
  <td>2778</td>
  <td>London Chess Classic Grand Chess Tour Finals 2019 Standard Games</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>December 2019</td>
  <td>+2=0-0</td>
  <td>+1.6</td>
  <td>2470*</td>
  <td>Ostlandsserien 2. div A 2019-2020 Round 1-2</td>
  </tr>
  <tr>
  <td>November 2019</td>
  <td>+4=7-0</td>
  <td>-6.0</td>
  <td>2692</td>
  <td>2019 FIDE Chess.com Grand Swiss</td>
  </tr>
  </tbody>
  </table>
  </div>
  <p>Totals<br />
  +33=44-4</p>
  <p>Percentages<br />
  +40.7=54.3-5</p>
  
Answers.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Answers.CreationDate: 2021-11-12T11:40:38.080Z
Answers.Text: Surprisingly (for people who aren't too deep into chess) Carlsen lost rating on some tournaments without losing a single match (e.g. Nov 2019). This is because against lower rated opponents he is expected to win more matches instead of drawing them. So if he draws too much and wins too few he loses rating without losing matches.
Answers.UserDisplayName: Raidri
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Answers.LastActivityDate: 2021-11-12T12:25:06.787Z
Answers.LastEditDate: 2021-11-12T12:25:06.787Z
Answers.UserDisplayName: Brian Towers
Body: <p>Magnus Carlsen's Elo rating is about 2870, and according to <a href="https://www.quora.com/When-was-the-last-time-Carlsen-lost-a-chess-game-in-any-time-control" rel="noreferrer">this quora answer</a>, he hasn't lost a game in 100 games at the time of writing. Assuming that his win rate hasn't changed since then, and assuming this implies conservatively a win rate of 99%, then based on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system#Performance_rating" rel="noreferrer">this table</a>, which says that a 99% win rate against a single other player corresponds to about 670 ELO surplus, this seems to suggest that Magnus Carlsen plays players who have on average an Elo rating of 2200. Is this correct? it seems like it is way too low, given that my understanding is that the super grandmasters mostly play each other and other high-scoring grandmasters, at least in long games.</p>
  
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2021-11-11T19:07:55.827Z
Comments.Text: No - Magnus Carlsen draws most of his games, so his win rate is closer to 50% than 100%.  (Most top level games are draws.)
Comments.UserDisplayName: Alexander Woo
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2021-11-12T06:09:32.080Z
Comments.Text: Re *"he hasn't lost a game in 100 games at the time of writing"*: How do you count that? Magnus [lost in the classical time format on 2021-09-12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBbTtJtV24M&t=15m26s) to [Sergey Karjakin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Karjakin) (current FIDE rating 2743) ([Norway Chess 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway_Chess#2021)). Doesn't that count? Has he played 100 classical games since then?
Comments.UserDisplayName: Peter Mortensen
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2021-11-12T11:29:17.623Z
Comments.Text: "Assuming that his win rate hasn't changed since then, and assuming this implies conservatively a win rate of 99%" That's not a conservative estimate, that's a wild, overblown estimate
Comments.UserDisplayName: David
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2021-11-12T11:55:18.250Z
Comments.Text: @David, the others have already clarified that
Comments.UserDisplayName: user56834
Comments.ContentLicense: CC BY-SA 4.0
Comments.CreationDate: 2021-11-12T16:34:51.727Z
Comments.Text: Related, 8 years ago: [Why has Carlsen's Elo not changed?](https://chess.stackexchange.com/q/4148/7792)
Comments.UserDisplayName: Andrew T.
Tags: <rating><elo>
Title: Why is Magnus Carlsen's Elo rating not higher, given that his win rate is so high?
ThreadText: # Why is Magnus Carlsen's Elo rating not higher, given that his win rate is so high?
  
  (Asked by: username_0 on 2021-11-11)
  
  Magnus Carlsen's Elo rating is about 2870, and according to [this quora answer](https://www.quora.com/When-was-the-last-time-Carlsen-lost-a-chess-game-in-any-time-control), he hasn't lost a game in 100 games at the time of writing. Assuming that his win rate hasn't changed since then, and assuming this implies conservatively a win rate of 99%, then based on [this table](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system#Performance_rating), which says that a 99% win rate against a single other player corresponds to about 670 ELO surplus, this seems to suggest that Magnus Carlsen plays players who have on average an Elo rating of 2200. Is this correct? it seems like it is way too low, given that my understanding is that the super grandmasters mostly play each other and other high-scoring grandmasters, at least in long games.
  
  **Tags:** rating, elo
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_1**: No - Magnus Carlsen draws most of his games, so his win rate is closer to 50% than 100%.  (Most top level games are draws.)  
  > **username_2**: Re *"he hasn't lost a game in 100 games at the time of writing"*: How do you count that? Magnus [lost in the classical time format on 2021-09-12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBbTtJtV24M&t=15m26s) to [Sergey Karjakin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Karjakin) (current FIDE rating 2743) ([Norway Chess 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway_Chess#2021)). Doesn't that count? Has he played 100 classical games since then?  
  > **username_3**: "Assuming that his win rate hasn't changed since then, and assuming this implies conservatively a win rate of 99%" That's not a conservative estimate, that's a wild, overblown estimate  
  > **username_0**: @username_3, the others have already clarified that  
  > **username_4**: Related, 8 years ago: [Why has Carlsen's Elo not changed?](https://chess.stackexchange.com/q/4148/7792)  
  
  ---
  
  ## 2 answers
  
  ### Answer by username_5 on 2021-11-12. Score: 24
  
  A 99% win rate is winning 99% of games played. Carlsen does not win nearly that many games, since at top level most games are drawn.
  
  Carlsen's [overall record](https://www.365chess.com/players/Magnus_Carlsen) in life is +1262 =1289 -454, which means 1262 wins, 1289 draws, 454 losses. He has won 42.00% of all the games he's been recorded to have played, and has an all-time average score of 63.44% (wins are 1 point, draws are 0.5 points, losses are 0 points).
  
  Another thing is the amount of rating gained or lost depends on how strong your opponent is. If Carlsen were to play a beginner a hundred times, he'd win effortlessly for a 100% win rate - but he'd also gain almost no rating.
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_6**: @username_5 - even worse, ELO cutoff! So if the difference is <400 (AFAIK), he even loses a bit with 100%!  
  > **username_7**: *If Carlsen were to play a beginner a hundred times, he'd win effortlessly for a 100% win rate - but he'd also gain almost no rating.* 1000% this. Also, if (unthinkably) he were to lose (or even draw) one of those games against that beginner, he would lose a massive amount of points, even with an overall 99-99.5% win rate against that player.  
  > **username_8**: @HaukeReddmann "So if the difference is <400 (AFAIK), he even loses a bit with 100%!" - No. The 400 point cutoff means he gains a small amount instead of zero (although with the newer rules he only gets the benefit once per tournament.) If you have an established rating you never lose points for winning.  
  > **username_6**: @DM: THX, then I always misunderstood the cutoff rule.  
  
  ---
  
  ### Answer by username_9 on 2021-11-11. Score: 16
  
  > assuming this implies conservatively a win rate of 99%
  
  There are a number of wrong assumptions in your question. First, at elite levels where players don't often lose it is draw rates that are high. Second, according to the [FIDE rating rules](https://old.fide.com/fide/handbook.html?id=197&view=article) if the rating difference were 670 it would be adjusted down to 400:
  
  > 8.54
  >
  > A difference in rating of more than 400 points shall be counted for rating purposes as though it were a difference of 400 points.
  
  In fact over the last two years according to the data on [FIDE's rating website for Carlsen](https://ratings.fide.com/profile/1503014/calculations) he has won 40.7%, drawn 54.3% and lost 5% of his games.
  
  Here are his results from November 2019 to date.
  
  A "\*" next to the average rating shows that some or all of his opponents were rated more than 400 points lower than him and their ratings were adjusted up to give him more rating points.
  
  | Date | Results | Rating Change | Avg. opponents' ratings | Event |
  | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
  | October 2021 | +4=5-1 | -0.2 | 2741 | Norway Chess 2021 |
  | October 2021 | +2=1-0 | +0.3 | 2557\* | 36th European Chess Club Cup 2021 |
  | September 2021 | +8=6-0 | +8.4 | 2672 | World Cup 2021 |
  | March 2021 | +3=9-1 | -15.3 | 2714 | Tata Steel Masters 2021 |
  | November 2020 | +5=3-2 | -0.8 | 2743 | Altibox Norway Chess 2020 |
  | April 2020 | +1=0-0 | +0.8 | 2462\* | Ostlandsserien 2. div A 2019-2020 R 9-11 |
  | February 2020 | +3=10-0 | -9.6 | 2731 | Tata Steel Masters 2020 |
  | January 2020 | +1=3-0 | -0.2 | 2778 | London Chess Classic Grand Chess Tour Finals 2019 Standard Games |
  | December 2019 | +2=0-0 | +1.6 | 2470\* | Ostlandsserien 2. div A 2019-2020 Round 1-2 |
  | November 2019 | +4=7-0 | -6.0 | 2692 | 2019 FIDE Chess.com Grand Swiss |
  
  Totals  
  +33=44-4
  
  Percentages  
  +40.7=54.3-5
  
  > **Comments:**
  > **username_10**: Surprisingly (for people who aren't too deep into chess) Carlsen lost rating on some tournaments without losing a single match (e.g. Nov 2019). This is because against lower rated opponents he is expected to win more matches instead of drawing them. So if he draws too much and wins too few he loses rating without losing matches.  
  
  ---
  
  