<p>Most of the study was made on Spade's &quot;bigger brother&quot; Bridge, however some work has been done on Spades as well.</p>
<ul>
<li>At 2020, during my ph.d I wrote a paper called <a href="https://ecai2020.eu/papers/235_paper.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Bidding in Spades</a>.</li>
<li>If you are looking for a nice strategy guide, I like <a href="http://www.sharkfeeder.com/spadsbook/toc.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Tyler Wong's
guide</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In section 4.1.1 <strong>Side Suit High Cards</strong> I evaluate the value of side-suit A,K,Q according the probability that no opponent will be able to cut the first / second / third trick.</p>
<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/CeFR2.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/CeFR2.png" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>In your example, you hold 4 hearts, therefore there is a chance of 3% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your Ace, 22.1% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your King, and 65% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your Queen.</p>
<p>So your intuition was right, a bidding of 2 is very safe (97%), a bidding of 3 is safe in 77.9% of the deals.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2023-02-15T08:53:26.307Z
2023-02-16T08:27:17.780Z
2023-02-16T08:27:17.780Z
Cohensius
<p>Is there any definitive publication or study on statistics in bidding? Based on the rules Spades offers about bidding, in the image below, a player may bid 2 or 3.</p>
<p><a href="https://i.sstatic.net/eQIzs.jpg" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/eQIzs.jpg" alt="enter image description here" /></a></p>
<p>Ace Spades, Ace Heart, and King Heart (3).</p>
<p>King Heart is the trick a player may evaluate as less probable; he would bid just two.</p>
<p>That is one of many possible examples that can start a more deep statistical evaluation.
I wonder if that evaluation has been made.</p>

<statistics><spades><study>
Is there a complete study on the statistics to bid?
user374324
# Is there a complete study on the statistics to bid?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2023-02-09)

Is there any definitive publication or study on statistics in bidding? Based on the rules Spades offers about bidding, in the image below, a player may bid 2 or 3.

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/eQIzs.jpg)](https://i.sstatic.net/eQIzs.jpg)

Ace Spades, Ace Heart, and King Heart (3).

King Heart is the trick a player may evaluate as less probable; he would bid just two.

That is one of many possible examples that can start a more deep statistical evaluation.
I wonder if that evaluation has been made.

**Tags:** statistics, spades, study


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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2023-02-15. Score: 2

Most of the study was made on Spade's "bigger brother" Bridge, however some work has been done on Spades as well.

* At 2020, during my ph.d I wrote a paper called [Bidding in Spades](https://ecai2020.eu/papers/235_paper.pdf).
* If you are looking for a nice strategy guide, I like [Tyler Wong's
  guide](http://www.sharkfeeder.com/spadsbook/toc.html)

In section 4.1.1 **Side Suit High Cards** I evaluate the value of side-suit A,K,Q according the probability that no opponent will be able to cut the first / second / third trick.

[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/CeFR2.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/CeFR2.png)

In your example, you hold 4 hearts, therefore there is a chance of 3% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your Ace, 22.1% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your King, and 65% that one of the opponents will be able to cut your Queen.

So your intuition was right, a bidding of 2 is very safe (97%), a bidding of 3 is safe in 77.9% of the deals.


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