<p>Check out the <a href="http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html" rel="nofollow">Axis &amp; Allies Combat Simulator/Calculator</a>. You can choose which variant of the game you're playing (Original, Revised Edition, etc.), how many simulations to run, and a number of other options. (There's even a iPhone and Android versions!) The combat simulator then tells you the average IPC loss for both sides and the average winning percentage.</p>

<p>Presuming you play with the Revised Edition (a/k/a, the 2nd Edition), here are the odds. (Note that each simulation has a link to the combat simulator with the attacking and defending units already entered. The link sets the simulation runs parameter to 1,000, but the results I present here were computed using 5,000 runs.)</p>

<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&amp;rules=0&amp;battleType=2&amp;attSubmarine=1&amp;defAircraftCarrier=1" rel="nofollow">1 sub</a>: 49.8% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 4 for attacker, 8 for defender</li>
<li><a href="http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&amp;rules=0&amp;battleType=2&amp;attSubmarine=2&amp;defAircraftCarrier=1" rel="nofollow">2 subs</a>: 85.4% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 4 for attacker, 14 for defender</li>
<li><a href="http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&amp;rules=0&amp;battleType=2&amp;attSubmarine=3&amp;defAircraftCarrier=1" rel="nofollow">3 subs</a>: 97.9% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 2 for attacker, 16 for defender</li>
</ul>

<p>What about super subs (which attack at a 3 instead of a 2)? If so, here are how the odds unfold:</p>

<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&amp;rules=0&amp;superSubmarines=true&amp;battleType=2&amp;attSubmarine=1&amp;defAircraftCarrier=1" rel="nofollow">1 supersub</a>: 67.1% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 3 for attacker, 11 for defender</li>
<li><a href="http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&amp;rules=0&amp;superSubmarines=true&amp;battleType=2&amp;attSubmarine=2&amp;defAircraftCarrier=1" rel="nofollow">2 supersubs</a>: 95.0% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 2 for attacker, 15 for defender</li>
<li><a href="http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&amp;rules=0&amp;superSubmarines=true&amp;battleType=2&amp;attSubmarine=3&amp;defAircraftCarrier=1" rel="nofollow">3 supersubs</a>: 99.6% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 1 for attacker, 16 for defender</li>
</ul>

<p>Also, because a sub has the benefit of "first attack," there will never be a scenario where <em>both</em> the sub and carrier are destroyed. In this type of battle you know that one side (and only one side) will be standing at the end.</p>

CC BY-SA 3.0
2018-01-20T23:38:05.210Z
It's all a matter of percentages, isn't it. Based on the above, the answer for a 60%+ success rate is two. (But "one" is actually quite close; two is almost overkill.) So maybe the best answer is "one-and-a-half.
Tom Au
CC BY-SA 2.5
2010-10-20T22:22:12.960Z
2010-10-20T22:22:12.960Z
Scott Mitchell
<p>In Axis and Allies, how many submarines do I need to have a greater than 60% chance to take down a lone aircraft carrier?</p>

<axis-and-allies><probability>
How many submarines do I need to take down an aircraft carrier?
C. Ross
# How many submarines do I need to take down an aircraft carrier?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2010-10-20)

In Axis and Allies, how many submarines do I need to have a greater than 60% chance to take down a lone aircraft carrier?

**Tags:** axis-and-allies, probability


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## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2010-10-20. Score: 8 | Accepted answer

Check out the [Axis & Allies Combat Simulator/Calculator](http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html). You can choose which variant of the game you're playing (Original, Revised Edition, etc.), how many simulations to run, and a number of other options. (There's even a iPhone and Android versions!) The combat simulator then tells you the average IPC loss for both sides and the average winning percentage.

Presuming you play with the Revised Edition (a/k/a, the 2nd Edition), here are the odds. (Note that each simulation has a link to the combat simulator with the attacking and defending units already entered. The link sets the simulation runs parameter to 1,000, but the results I present here were computed using 5,000 runs.)

* [1 sub](http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=0&battleType=2&attSubmarine=1&defAircraftCarrier=1): 49.8% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 4 for attacker, 8 for defender
* [2 subs](http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=0&battleType=2&attSubmarine=2&defAircraftCarrier=1): 85.4% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 4 for attacker, 14 for defender
* [3 subs](http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=0&battleType=2&attSubmarine=3&defAircraftCarrier=1): 97.9% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 2 for attacker, 16 for defender

What about super subs (which attack at a 3 instead of a 2)? If so, here are how the odds unfold:

* [1 supersub](http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=0&superSubmarines=true&battleType=2&attSubmarine=1&defAircraftCarrier=1): 67.1% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 3 for attacker, 11 for defender
* [2 supersubs](http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=0&superSubmarines=true&battleType=2&attSubmarine=2&defAircraftCarrier=1): 95.0% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 2 for attacker, 15 for defender
* [3 supersubs](http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html?&rules=0&superSubmarines=true&battleType=2&attSubmarine=3&defAircraftCarrier=1): 99.6% chance of winning, average IPC loss: 1 for attacker, 16 for defender

Also, because a sub has the benefit of "first attack," there will never be a scenario where *both* the sub and carrier are destroyed. In this type of battle you know that one side (and only one side) will be standing at the end.

> **Comments:**
> **username_2**: It's all a matter of percentages, isn't it. Based on the above, the answer for a 60%+ success rate is two. (But "one" is actually quite close; two is almost overkill.) So maybe the best answer is "one-and-a-half.  

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