<p>Your method of adding <strong>[Spade-Length] - 3.5</strong> seems reasonable, except I would halve that whenever partner has already made a bid of 4 or higher. Any bid in excess of 3 is very likely to include Spade length, and it is desirable to avoid double-counting that asset. </p>

<p>Even when partner's bid above 3 is solely based on high card strength, that reduces the value of extra Spades in your own hand as you will be attempting to not ruff those assets. </p>

<p>Also, I believe a refinement of the <em>Spades' tricks estimate</em> should consider the presence or absence of a void/singleton in one's hand. Balanced holdings around the table reduce the likelihood of <em>ruffing tricks</em>, while unbalanced holdings increase their likelihood. I'm not yet sure how I would do that.</p>

<hr>

<p>Here is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_bridge_probabilities#Hand_pattern_probabilities" rel="nofollow noreferrer">a table of all the hand pattern probabilities</a>, with the top few (covering nearly 85% of possibilities) excerpted below.<br>
<a href="https://i.sstatic.net/qMjzk.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/qMjzk.png" alt="enter image description here"></a></p>

<p>Note that the 4333 pattern is only the fifth most common hand pattern, and the most common is 4432 at over 21%. If we take the 4432 pattern as <em>standard</em>, then we can rank the most common patterns as being either <em>stronger</em> or <em>weaker</em> than the standard (in ascending order of estimated strength:</p>

<ul>
<li><strong>Distinctly Weaker</strong>: Estimates from Contract Bridge analysis suggest at east 0.25 trick weaker  

<ul>
<li>4333 HPS = 2(4-5) + (3-3) = -2  </li>
</ul></li>
<li><strong>Standard</strong>:  

<ul>
<li>4432 HPS = 2(4-5) + (4-2) =  0  </li>
<li>5332 HPS = 2(5-5) + (3-2) =  1  </li>
</ul></li>
<li><strong>Stronger</strong>: Estimates from Bridge analysis suggests at least 0.25 tricks stronger than average  

<ul>
<li>5422 HPS = 2(5-5) + (4-2) =  2   </li>
<li>6322 HPS = 2(6-5) + (3-2) =  3  </li>
<li>5431 HPS = 2(5-5) + (4-1) =  3  </li>
</ul></li>
<li><strong>Distinctly Stronger</strong>: Estimates from Bridge analysis suggest at least 0.5 tricks stronger than average.  

<ul>
<li>6331 HPS = 2(6-5) + (3-1) =  4  </li>
<li>6421 HPS = 2(6-5) + (4-1) =  5 </li>
</ul></li>
</ul>

<p>In this context <strong>stronger</strong> should be interpreted as <em>more capable of implementing the desired strategy</em>.  A 6421 hand with short Spades and all its high cards, even if Aces, in the two long suits might be very capable of successfully bidding <strong>Nil</strong>. Obviously the placement of a hand's high cards is of import as well, as an additional refinement.</p>

<p>Also, these estimates are <em>a priori</em> - before trumps have been established. Clearly a long trump holding (Spades playing Spades) is even more valuable than shown here for <em>winning</em> tricks - but is less able to <em>lose</em> tricks.</p>

<p>One numerical estimate of <em>Hand Pattern Strength</em> would be to take double the excess of the length of the longest suit over 5, plus the excess of the second longest suit over the shortest suit. I have marked this value as <em>HPS</em> for the hand patterns above.</p>

<hr>

<p>My first attempt at a comprehensive hand evaluation for <strong>Spades</strong> would be the sum of:</p>

<ul>
<li><a href="http://bridgesqueezescomplete.com/bridge/320.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Culbertson Honour Tricks</a>;
<a href="https://i.sstatic.net/JQbBo.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.sstatic.net/JQbBo.png" alt="enter image description here"></a>  </li>
<li>HPS (as above) / 4; and  </li>
<li>(Spades length - 4) / 2.</li>
</ul>

<p>That could be further refined, with experience, by adjusting the denominators for the second and third components for HPS and Spades length. When contemplating a <strong>Nil</strong> bid, consider subtracting the HPS term instead of adding it to the sum.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-09-03T16:58:01.150Z
Halving could result in 1/4 bids, which surely don't exist!
The Chaz 2.0
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-09-03T21:02:57.217Z
@TheChaz2.0: It's called *rounding*. The 4th and 5th cards ( (0.5 + 1.0) / 2 ) become an estimated trick, as do the 6th and 7th ( (1 + 1) / 2 ) when both held.
Forget I was ever here
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-09-03T11:36:20.373Z
2018-09-09T16:21:02.487Z
2018-09-09T16:21:02.487Z
Forget I was ever here
<p>In the game of Spades, what is the best or popular practice to bid the ♠ suit? That is to say, how to estimate the number of tricks my spades suit can take?</p>
<p>I calculate my takes in the spades suit by considering those three factors:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>High spades</strong> - {A,Kx,Qxx,Jxxx} where x are spades cards used as protection.</li>
<li><strong>Long spades suit</strong> - count each spade beyond the 4th, some count the 4th spade as a &quot;half a take&quot; which combined with other factors might be a take.</li>
<li><strong>Short sides suits + spare spades</strong></li>
</ol>
<ul>
<li>Void and 1/2/3 spare spades is 1/~1.5/~2.25 takes.</li>
<li>Singleton and 1/2 spare spades is ~1/~1.5 takes.</li>
<li>Doubleton and 1 spare spade is a bit less than 1 take.</li>
</ul>
<p>Note: do not count the same card twice.  Each card should be count once where it produce the maximal value.</p>

CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-09-03T11:11:24.327Z
What do you mean by "*is a take*"? Also, since half cards don't exist, please expand on how you calculate the net of actual spades in excess of 3.5.
Forget I was ever here
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-09-03T11:20:50.520Z
"is a take" means count this card as a take (increase your bid by 1).   I count the forth spade as a half a take, so If I also have other "half" takes such as side suit queens or side suits doubletons it will sum up to a take.
Cohensius
CC BY-SA 4.0
2018-09-03T11:22:21.717Z
Great! That would be worthwhile to add to the question.
Forget I was ever here
<bidding><spades>
Spades - how to bid my spades suit?
Cohensius
# Spades - how to bid my spades suit?

(Asked by: username_0 on 2018-09-03)

In the game of Spades, what is the best or popular practice to bid the ♠ suit? That is to say, how to estimate the number of tricks my spades suit can take?

I calculate my takes in the spades suit by considering those three factors:

1. **High spades** - {A,Kx,Qxx,Jxxx} where x are spades cards used as protection.
2. **Long spades suit** - count each spade beyond the 4th, some count the 4th spade as a "half a take" which combined with other factors might be a take.
3. **Short sides suits + spare spades**

* Void and 1/2/3 spare spades is 1/~1.5/~2.25 takes.
* Singleton and 1/2 spare spades is ~1/~1.5 takes.
* Doubleton and 1 spare spade is a bit less than 1 take.

Note: do not count the same card twice. Each card should be count once where it produce the maximal value.

**Tags:** bidding, spades

> **Comments:**
> **username_1**: What do you mean by "*is a take*"? Also, since half cards don't exist, please expand on how you calculate the net of actual spades in excess of 3.5.  
> **username_0**: "is a take" means count this card as a take (increase your bid by 1).   I count the forth spade as a half a take, so If I also have other "half" takes such as side suit queens or side suits doubletons it will sum up to a take.  
> **username_1**: Great! That would be worthwhile to add to the question.  

---

## 1 answers

### Answer by username_1 on 2018-09-03. Score: 3 | Accepted answer

Your method of adding **[Spade-Length] - 3.5** seems reasonable, except I would halve that whenever partner has already made a bid of 4 or higher. Any bid in excess of 3 is very likely to include Spade length, and it is desirable to avoid double-counting that asset.

Even when partner's bid above 3 is solely based on high card strength, that reduces the value of extra Spades in your own hand as you will be attempting to not ruff those assets.

Also, I believe a refinement of the *Spades' tricks estimate* should consider the presence or absence of a void/singleton in one's hand. Balanced holdings around the table reduce the likelihood of *ruffing tricks*, while unbalanced holdings increase their likelihood. I'm not yet sure how I would do that.

---

Here is [a table of all the hand pattern probabilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_bridge_probabilities#Hand_pattern_probabilities), with the top few (covering nearly 85% of possibilities) excerpted below.  
[![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/qMjzk.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/qMjzk.png)

Note that the 4333 pattern is only the fifth most common hand pattern, and the most common is 4432 at over 21%. If we take the 4432 pattern as *standard*, then we can rank the most common patterns as being either *stronger* or *weaker* than the standard (in ascending order of estimated strength:

* **Distinctly Weaker**: Estimates from Contract Bridge analysis suggest at east 0.25 trick weaker
  + 4333 HPS = 2(4-5) + (3-3) = -2
* **Standard**:
  + 4432 HPS = 2(4-5) + (4-2) = 0
  + 5332 HPS = 2(5-5) + (3-2) = 1
* **Stronger**: Estimates from Bridge analysis suggests at least 0.25 tricks stronger than average
  + 5422 HPS = 2(5-5) + (4-2) = 2
  + 6322 HPS = 2(6-5) + (3-2) = 3
  + 5431 HPS = 2(5-5) + (4-1) = 3
* **Distinctly Stronger**: Estimates from Bridge analysis suggest at least 0.5 tricks stronger than average.
  + 6331 HPS = 2(6-5) + (3-1) = 4
  + 6421 HPS = 2(6-5) + (4-1) = 5

In this context **stronger** should be interpreted as *more capable of implementing the desired strategy*. A 6421 hand with short Spades and all its high cards, even if Aces, in the two long suits might be very capable of successfully bidding **Nil**. Obviously the placement of a hand's high cards is of import as well, as an additional refinement.

Also, these estimates are *a priori* - before trumps have been established. Clearly a long trump holding (Spades playing Spades) is even more valuable than shown here for *winning* tricks - but is less able to *lose* tricks.

One numerical estimate of *Hand Pattern Strength* would be to take double the excess of the length of the longest suit over 5, plus the excess of the second longest suit over the shortest suit. I have marked this value as *HPS* for the hand patterns above.

---

My first attempt at a comprehensive hand evaluation for **Spades** would be the sum of:

* [Culbertson Honour Tricks](http://bridgesqueezescomplete.com/bridge/320.html);
  [![enter image description here](https://i.sstatic.net/JQbBo.png)](https://i.sstatic.net/JQbBo.png)
* HPS (as above) / 4; and
* (Spades length - 4) / 2.

That could be further refined, with experience, by adjusting the denominators for the second and third components for HPS and Spades length. When contemplating a **Nil** bid, consider subtracting the HPS term instead of adding it to the sum.

> **Comments:**
> **username_2**: Halving could result in 1/4 bids, which surely don't exist!  
> **username_1**: @TheChaz2.0: It's called *rounding*. The 4th and 5th cards ( (0.5 + 1.0) / 2 ) become an estimated trick, as do the 6th and 7th ( (1 + 1) / 2 ) when both held.  

---

