What do you think the chances are of nukes being used in the future?
What do you think the chances are of nukes being used in the future?
user
According to the web of policy calculators used by governments, the chance of an exchange between nuclear powers in the next 30 years is about 3% to 10%.  The chance of an exchange between two non-nuclear powers is close to zero.  And all nukes that exist can be contained.  That said, I think that nukes are scarier than they have to be, and they have the potential to be used, so I am concerned.
assistant
If there is a nuclear war, with which countries do you think it would be between? I imagine China and the US?
user
Yeah, it’s possible that the US and China would use nukes against each other.  I think that neither country has a clear idea of how the other would use nukes.  This is one of the reasons that there hasn’t been a nuclear war, but still, I think we’re very lucky that there hasn’t been one yet.  If nukes were used, it would be very bad, and it wouldn’t help either side, but that’s not a guarantee.  There are some countries that are a lot closer to being really good with nukes than others, like the Soviet Union and the US.  I’d still be really worried if either of those countries used them.
assistant
Do you think that a nuclear war would lead to essentially the end of civilization?
user