The 2024 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 21 April 2024, to elect the 13th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election.
This election was the first since 2009 not to see Iñigo Urkullu as the leading candidate of the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), after the party chose to replace the incumbent Lehendakari with a low profile politician at the provincial level, Imanol Pradales, following 12 years of uninterrupted government. The main opposition, EH Bildu, also ran under a new candidate, Pello Otxandiano, amid speculation that long-time leader Arnaldo Otegi could have led the candidacy following the end of his disqualification from running for public office. All other parliamentary parties but Podemos and Vox also ran under new candidates: Eneko Andueza by the Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE), Javier de Andrés by the People's Party (PP)—with the PP+Cs alliance being discontinued and Citizens (CS) deciding not to contest the election—and Alba García by Sumar.
The results showed a close race between the PNV and EH Bildu, with the latter slightly underperforming opinion polls but securing a large increase in its popular support. The PSE–EE, which had been the junior partner to the PNV-led government since 2016, saw an unexpected increase in support to secure its best result since 2012. The PP increased its seat totals by one compared to the PP+Cs results in 2020, whereas the dissolution of the Elkarrekin Podemos alliance saw Sumar clinging on to one seat and Podemos losing all its representation. Vox was able to retain its seat for Álava.
Overview.
Electoral system.
The Basque Parliament was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.
The 75 members of the Basque Parliament were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy.
Election date.
The term of the Basque Parliament expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 12 July 2020, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 12 July 2024. The election decree was required to be published in the BOPV no later than 18 June 2024 with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 11 August 2024.
The lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament was to be dissolved and a fresh election called.
Following the announcement by Galician president Alfonso Rueda of a snap election in Galicia for 18 February 2024, Urkullu was asked whether he would follow suit and make both elections be held simultaneously—as it had been the case since 2009. To this, he simply stated that "the Basque Country is not Galicia", distancing himself from Rueda's decision. Instead, it was expected that the Basque election would most likely be held in March or April 2024, to allow for more time to approve a final set of bills in the Basque Parliament as well as to avoid a simultaneous call with the European Parliament election on 9 June.
The Basque Parliament was officially dissolved on 27 February 2024 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOPV, setting the election date for 21 April.
Parliamentary composition.
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.
Parties and candidates.
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
Timetable.
The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):
Opinion polls.
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.
Voting preferences.
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
Victory preferences.
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Victory likelihood.
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Preferred Lehendakari.
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become lehendakari.
Voter turnout.
The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA). Compared to past elections, 2024 elections turnout data are to be gathered at 13:00 and 18:00 (instead of 12:00 and 17:00 at previous elections).
Aftermath.
The results were announced after polls in the region closed, with PNV securing the most votes, but finished with a tie with EH Bildu at 27 seats.
References.
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