Syrian government military operation against rebels
The 2019 northwestern Syria offensive, codenamed "Dawn of Idlib" (), was a military operation launched on 30 April 2019 by the Syrian Armed Forces and its allies against rebel groups in northwestern Syria during the Syrian civil war in a region known as "Greater Idlib", consisting of northwest Hama, southern Idlib and northeastern Latakia provinces. The government's main objectives were to open the M5 highway and to expel non-compliant militant groups, particularly the internationally proscribed al-Qaeda-linked group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), from the 15–20 km demilitarized zone demarcated by Turkey and the Russian Federation at Sochi in 2018. The offensive was seen by both parties as crucial to the outcome of the war.
On 1 August 2019, the Syrian government declared that it would halt its operation on Idlib on the next day. In response, Tahrir al-Sham stated that the truce proved "the failure of the criminal regime’s military operation against the liberated north." In response to HTS refusal to agree to a ceasefire, alongside HTS' refusal to comply with the parameters of the Sochi Agreement, the Syrian Army resumed the offensive on 5 August, capturing numerous villages and strategic hilltops in southern Idlib before seizing Khan Shaykhun and subsequently the entire rebel-held pocket in southern Idlib.
During the course of the offensive, the Syrian and Russian air forces continually conducted airstrikes against rebel positions, while pro-government ground forces intensively targeted them with surface-to-surface missiles and heavy artillery on a daily basis.
Background.
In late 2018, a demilitarization deal in Idlib was brokered between Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The deal set up a belt-like demilitarized zone (DMZ) entirely within rebel-held areas, encompassing the entire contact line between Syrian government and rebel territory. The deal required the al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Islamist rebel groups to withdraw from the zone entirely. The HTS-run Syrian Salvation Government would then be dissolved. The relatively moderate and Turkish-backed National Front for Liberation (NFL), a coalition of 11 rebel factions, was allowed to remain within the demilitarized zone, but were to withdraw all heavy weapons from it, including tanks, multiple rocket launcher artillery, mortars and more. Turkey would establish military observation posts on the rebel side of the contact zone, while Russia and Iran would do likewise on the government side. Furthermore, the rebel groups had to open and ensure unrestricted civilian access through the M4 and M5 highways that span across the rebel-held Idlib Governorate.
The deal, however, was never fully implemented. In early 2019, Tahrir al-Sham launched an offensive against the National Front for Liberation, establishing control over almost the entirety of rebel-held Greater Idlib. The NFL struck a peace deal with HTS, ending the fighting between the two groups and allowing HTS to take over the Idlib region. Counter to the terms of the demilitarization deal, the Syrian Salvation Government was not dissolved and instead extended its rule to all of the recently HTS-captured areas, including those within the demilitarized zone. The M4 and M5 highways were never reopened. The deadline for HTS withdrawal from the DMZ was extended multiple times to allow more time for Turkey to broker a political deal, but the withdrawal never took place. This led to HTS and Syrian government elements stationed along the deconfliction line to frequently exchange artillery fire and shelling, undermining any ceasefire terms brokered in the demilitarization deal.
In late April 2019, the Syrian and Russian air forces undertook an extended air campaign against the rebel groups still residing within the DMZ. The campaign was supported by artillery and missile fire from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). For example, on 28 April, the Martyr Akram Ali Ibrahim Al-Ahmad school in Qalaat al-Madiq was bombed by government forces. The Russian government declared that the deal was not implemented by the rebel groups, hence justifying military action.
The offensive.
On 30 April 2019, the situation in the region escalated when large numbers of Syrian Army troops were redeployed to Hama and Idlib provinces after getting approval to launch an offensive against the rebel-held "Greater Idlib" region. The same day, heavy Syrian government and Russian airstrikes were launched throughout northwestern Syria in preparation for an upcoming ground offensive. The strikes were launched three days after HTS attacks on government positions along the frontline left 22 pro-government fighters dead. On the first day of the bombardment, the Syrian and Russian air forces launched their largest attack of the year, targeting dozens of towns and villages. On 3 May, government forces bombed Rakaya Sijneh health centre.
Opening advances.
On 6 May, after six days of intensive airstrikes on the region by Syrian and Russian warplanes, the Syrian Army launched its ground assault against HTS and NFL-held areas in northern Hama and southern Idlib. The Syrian government stated that the assault was provoked by increased rebel attacks on government-held areas originating from within the DMZ. The Idlib-based rebel groups argued that the government's real goal of the offensive was to capture the M4 and M5 highways in the Idlib Governorate.
On 7 May, Syrian government forces captured the villages of Tel Othman, al-Bani and al-Janabara. The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) war monitor reported that at least 69 civilians and 41 rebels had been killed since the beginning of the escalation. The Russian Air Force intensified airstrikes against the rebels in response to missiles and mortar shells that reportedly had been fired against Russia's Khmeimim Air Base the previous day by unidentified militants. The Syrian Army reported that it had killed 15 rebels in the previous day, while losing 11 servicemen. The United Kingdom said that a dozen children had been killed in the government offensive and barrel bombs had been used for the first time in seven months. The United Nations said that 30,000 people had been made homeless, 5,500 left without water, four health facilities had been destroyed and at least two schools damaged.
Capture of Kafr Nabudah.
On 8 May, the Syrian Army captured the town of Kafr Nabudah after a brief battle. Pro-Syrian government media released footage showing armored vehicles belonging to the Tiger Forces maneuvering inside the town. The Syrian Army also reportedly advanced from northeast Latakia, capturing Point 1154 in Jabal Zuwayqat. After pro-government forces captured the town of Kafr Nabudah, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched a counterattack at night with a car bomb spearheading the attack, followed by an armed assault on positions held by the Tiger Forces; after hours of fighting, HTS stated to have retaken the town; however, this statement was denied by the Syrian Army. The Russian Defence Ministry reported that the Khmeimim Air Base had once again been targeted with missiles fired from within the DMZ by groups which they identified as Katiba Ard al-Bab and Katiba Jabel Butma (both of which are designated terrorist groups by Russia). All 12 missiles fired at the base were reportedly shot down by its anti-air defenses, causing no casualties or damage. The positions from which the missiles were fired were then reportedly bombed by Russian warplanes and Syrian Army artillery.
Capture of Qalaat al-Madiq.
On 9 May, the Syrian Army captured the town of Qalaat al-Madiq, as well as the villages of Tell Huwash, Al-Tuwainah and Al-Karkat from rebel forces. The Syrian Army later established its control over the village of Shariah, as well as Tal al-Sakhr and its surrounding farms. A National Front for Liberation (NFL) spokesman announced the group's withdrawal from the area, stating that Qalaat al-Madiq was already militarily lost for them by that point. The Syrian and Russian air forces continued to target rebel positions in northwestern Syria with airstrikes.
On 10 May, joint rebel forces spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a counterattack to recapture Kafr Nabudah. The rebels encountered stiff Syrian Army resistance, sparking fierce clashes. They came under heavy fire from airstrikes and government artillery. Syrian state media reported the counterattack was repelled by government forces. Rebel forces did, however, manage to take the villages of Shariah and Ard al-Bab, posting videos on Twitter and Telegram to corroborate their statements.
On 11 May, the Syrian Army recaptured the village of Shariah amid heavy air and artillery strikes targeting rebel positions. The Syrian Army also captured the villages of Arima and Midan Ghazal following clashes with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, according to Russian state media and social media reports. The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that up to that point the Syrian government had managed to capture at least 9 villages during the offensive. Later that day, the Syrian Army said it captured three more villages: al-Jamaziya, Bab al-Taqa and Mustariha.
On 12 May, rebel groups shelled the government-held town of Al-Suqaylabiyah in retaliation for the offensive, reportedly killing six civilians, including a woman and five children. The Russian Air Force responded by launching several airstrikes against rebel positions. On the same day the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham affiliated Syrian Salvation Government announced the creation of the "Popular Resistance" to organize civilian militias under its command to assist in defending rebel-held areas from the government's offensive.
On 13 May, the Syrian Army recaptured Tell Huwash after briefly losing control over it during a rebel counterattack. It also captured the villages of Al-Hawash and Al-Jabriyah after clashes with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the National Front for Liberation. Shortly thereafter, the Syrian Army captured the villages of Tuba and Sheikh Idris from rebel forces. Jaysh al-Izza, backed by HTS and the NFL, launched a counterattack on the Hamamiyat front, south of Kafr Nabudah, and also reportedly shelled the city of Al-Suqaylabiyah again, with Syrian state media reporting one civilian was killed and five wounded. The SOHR reported the clashes in Hamamiyat, al-Jabin and on the outskirts of Karnaz had stopped after the withdrawal of the rebel groups from the area, signalling the failure of the counterattack. Later, a local source reported that rebel groups recaptured Sheikh Idris.
On 14 May, Syrian Army forces began advancing deeper into the Ghab Plain. By the end of the day, the Syrian Army had captured the villages of al-Mujahirin, al-Hamra, and a nearby airstrip.
On 15 May, the Syrian Army captured the entire al-Huwayz area, including all three towns located at the southwestern slope of Zawiya Mountain.
On 16 May, HTS forces repelled a Syrian Army 4th Division-led infiltration attempt on the Kabani axis in Latakia, killing and wounding several Syrian Army and NDF soldiers. The failed infiltration was in support of the Syrian Army's upcoming major assault to capture the strategic town of Kabani, set to be spearheaded by the 42nd Brigade (Ghiath Forces) of the 4th Armored Division, and to be supported by the Tiger Forces. The Syrian Army had launched a number of attacks on Kabani over the previous two weeks, but was repelled each time, suffering several casualties.
On 17 May, the Syrian Army massed troops for the expected assault on Kabani, while rebel positions within and around the town were hit numerous times by government artillery and Russian airstrikes.
Three-day ceasefire and rebel counteroffensive.
On 18 May, the Syrian Army declared a three-day ceasefire and put the offensive on hold. The National Front for Liberation stated that it would reject all ceasefire proposals unless the Syrian Army returns all occupied areas to rebel control. Several hours later, the Turkistan Islamic Party claimed an ATGM strike on a Syrian Army BMP, demonstrating the group's rejection of the ceasefire. On 19 May, the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria reported that rebel groups had conducted 13 attacks on government positions since the start of the ceasefire, leading to 3 injuries among SAA servicemen. It further stated that rebel attacks on Russia's Khmeimim Air Base had not ceased, noting 12 attacks on the airbase in the past month. Factions of the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army, including Ahrar al-Sharqiya, a group composed of exiles mostly from the Deir ez-Zor Governorate, and several groups previously expelled by HTS, sent reinforcements from northern Aleppo to Idlib and Hama to assist the rebels in fighting the government forces.
Rebel recapture of Kafr Nabudah.
By 21 May, the reprieve had ended. The Russian Ministry of Defence stated that the rebel groups had not respected the ceasefire. The Syrian Army and NDF units attempted to advance on Kabani, but were reportedly repelled by HTS and TIP forces. Various rebel groups staged a joint attack on government-held areas near al-Hamimiat and al-Jabin, but were reportedly repelled by the SAA. A