Demilitarized zone in Syria
The Northern Syria Buffer Zone (also known as the Safe Zone, Peace Corridor, or Security Mechanism) was a temporary Syrian civil war demilitarized zone (DMZ) established on the Syrian side of the Syria–Turkey border in August 2019 to maintain security along the border and to dissuade a prospective Turkish invasion of the self-proclaimed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. The DMZ was administered by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their military councils and enforced by United States Armed Forces and Turkish Armed Forces personnel.
The buffer zone collapsed in early October 2019, before it was fully implemented, when Turkey dismissed the agreement on 1 October and the United States abandoned the effort on 6 October after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria, allowing for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's planned ground incursion into the region. The subsequent Turkish offensive on 9 October rendered the buffer zone fully obsolete.
The failed Turkish-U.S. arrangement was replaced on 22 October 2019 with the separate Second Northern Syria Buffer Zone, negotiated between Russia, Turkey and the Assad government.
Background.
The Syrian Democratic Forces are an armed participant in the Syrian civil war and serve as the armed forces of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. The SDF is composed of numerous groups, most prominent among them being the YPG and YPJ and their political branch, the PYD, which Turkey considers a branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an organization which Turkey considers a terrorist group and with which it has engaged in armed conflict since the breakdown of peace negotiations in 2015. For this reason, Turkey views the entire SDF as merely an extension of the PKK. This has led Turkey to intervene twice against the group by 2019, first by invading northern Syria to prevent the linking of SDF-held areas and later by launching a full-scale attack against the SDF in Afrin. As a result of these incursions, Turkey established an occupation zone in northern Syria, which became subject to an SDF insurgency. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan frequently expressed a desire to forcefully remove the SDF from the Syrian-Turkish border.
The SDF, for its part, became one of the United States' main Syrian partners in the war against the Islamic State, leading to US troops being stationed within SDF-held territories, thus dissuading a Turkish cross-border invasion. At the same time, US President Donald Trump expressed his intention to disengage from the Syrian civil war, initially ordering all US personnel in Syria to be withdrawn before later deciding to maintain a small contingent, at the behest of his military advisors. Nonetheless, the US was keen on maintaining good relations with Turkey, which had by that point already been strained by the refusal of the US to extradite Turkish dissident Fethullah Gülen (whom Turkey accused of masterminding the failed 2016 coup d'état) and the Turkish purchase of S-400 missile systems from Russia, as Turkey is considered NATO's key member in the Middle East.
The US and Turkey had previously clashed diplomatically over the issue of the SDF-held city of Manbij, with Turkey wanting to purge the city of the YPG units stationed there. The result was a 'Manbij Roadmap' being agreed to by Turkey and the US, which would eventually entail a YPG withdrawal from the city. The roadmap, however, was never implemented and the YPG never withdrew. Turkey accused the US of dragging its feet and sabotaging the implementation of the roadmap, vowing to never enter into a similar deal in the future.
Relations between Turkey and the SDF became increasingly hostile in mid-2019, with the SDF joining forces with Bashar al-Assad's government forces to repel a Turkish-opposition military operation near Tell Rifaat.
Negotiation process.
Preliminary negotiations and initial failure.
During summer of 2019, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that Turkey could "no longer wait" and would not tolerate continued SDF presence along the Turkish-Syrian border. He stated that if the US did not agree to a deal that would remove the SDF from those areas, Turkey would unilaterally launch a full-scale invasion against SDF-held territories east of the Euphrates river, establishing a Turkish-occupied "security zone" along the border – something that US leadership viewed as "unacceptable". With the Turkish army massing along the border, the Trump administration decided to enter into negotiations with Turkey over establishing a "safe zone", which would fundamentally address the SDF presence in Northern Syria. The two sides initially failed to make any headway, with the US initially offering a -deep zone under joint US-Turkish control, while Turkey demanded a -deep zone under sole Turkish control.
Deal reached.
On 7 August 2019, Turkey said it reached a framework deal with the United States that would prevent a unilateral Turkish invasion of northern Syria. The initial first steps reportedly included the creation of a "joint operations centre", which would coordinate the establishment of a "peace corridor" along the Syrian side of the Syrian-Turkish border, while still leaving details about the size and scope of the "peace corridor" undefined and ambiguous.
Terms of the agreement.
In mid-August 2019, the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces revealed that the two sides had agreed on the specifics of the safe zone deal. They were listed as follows:
The SDF later clarified that the majority of the zone would include rural areas and military positions, but not cities and towns.
Implementation timeline.
On 14 August 2019, Turkish observation drones began surveillance flights over the buffer zone.
On 22 August, the SDF began dismantling border fortifications along the Syrian-Turkish border under U.S. supervision.
On 24 August, Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar reported that the U.S.-Turkish combined joint operations center (CJOC) was fully operational, adding that joint helicopter flights would begin that same day.
On 26 August, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that joint U.S.-Turkish ground patrols within the zone would begin "soon".
Planned SDF withdrawal begins.
On 27 August, the first stage of the planned Kurdish withdrawal came into effect, with YPG units leaving their positions and withdrawing along with their weapons from Tell Abyad and Ras al-Ayn.
On 31 August, Turkish president Erdoğan threatened that Turkey would "implement its own plans" if Turkish soldiers are not allowed to control the buffer zone in Northern Syria within two or three weeks.
On 4 September, the SDF's Ras al-Ayn military council (composed of local fighters loyal to the SDF) began joint patrols with U.S. personnel around the town, following the withdrawal of regular SDF units from the area a week prior.
On 5 September, U.S. and Turkish helicopters conducted a third round of joint aerial reconnaissance patrols within the buffer zone.
On 6 September, Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar announced that joint U.S.-Turkish ground patrols within the zone were due to begin on Sunday, 8 September.
Joint ground patrols begin.
On 8 September, Turkish and United States Armed Forces personnel conducted their first joint ground patrol starting from the perimeter of Tell Abyad, close to the Turkish town of Akçakale. Six Turkish armored vehicles were involved in the patrol, along with several American armored vehicles, with the U.S. vehicles leading the convoy. The patrol headed to a Kurdish-controlled base to inspect it and to ensure that trenches and sand berms had been removed.
On 10 September, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu accused the United States of "stalling" the implementation of the zone and reasserted the threat that Turkey would unilaterally invade Northern Syria, if it deemed it necessary. He further demanded that the safe zone be expanded to 32 km, rather than the 5-9-14 model being implemented at that point by the U.S. and SDF.
On 12 September, the U.S. military was reported as considering the proposition of sending about 150 additional troops to Northern Syria in an attempt to "reduce tensions" between the SDF and Turkey. A Pentagon spokesman however stated that the U.S. "posture" in Syria would remain "unchanged".
On 18 September, Turkish president Erdoğan stated Turkey was seeking to settle 2 to 3 million refugees within the border zone (up from one million from his 5 September statement). He reiterated the now-repeated threat to "implement [Turkey's] own plans" if he deemed that "no results [had] come" from the deal in two weeks.
On 19 September, the U.S. military was reported to have continued arming YPG forces, despite repeated Turkish objections. The United States Department of Defense confirmed that it was continuing to supply "tailored" arms and vehicles to the SDF in general, stating that it was providing monthly reports to Turkey as to what arms and vehicles were sent to the group.
On 24 September, U.S. and Turkish troops conducted their second joint ground patrol within the buffer zone.
Turkey dismisses buffer zone, threatens invasion.
On 1 October, the Turkish-imposed deadline for the fulfillment of Turkish demands expired without satisfaction, casting uncertainty on the future of the Buffer Zone and leaving the region once more under threat of a Turkish incursion.
On 5 October, the Turkish president Erdoğan warned that a full-scale invasion of Northern Syria could start that same or following day, after defining the joint U.S.-Turkish ground and air patrols as "a fairy tale". He further stated that the Turkish military had already prepared for the attack and had received plans for the invasion.
U.S. forces withdraw, SDF demilitarization ends.
On 7 October, a White House Office press statement noted that Turkey would be "moving forward with its long-planned operation into northern Syria" and declared that while U.S. forces would not actively support the operation, they would withdraw from the area, essentially allowing it to take place. The statement reportedly suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump approved of the Turkish offensive after Turkish president Erdoğan assured him that Turkey would take over the detention of ISIL prisoners held in SDF captivity. Trump's sudden approval of a Turkish incursion was seen as a reversal of the objectives of the Buffer Zone agreement and was received controversially within the United States. Spokesmen of the SDF said the U.S. move was a "stab in the back" and asserted that the SDF would "defend north-east Syria at all costs".
On 8 October, with U.S. forces conducting a withdrawal from the border, SDF officials expressed their intentions to negotiate with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad for a deal that could see the entry of Syrian Army units into SDF-held territories, which they hoped would forestall the planned Turkish invasion. Syria's Foreign Minister urged Kurdish forces to hand over several areas controlled by them to the Syrian Government, stating that should they refuse to do so, they would be faced with "abyss" in the face of Turkey. Masoud Barzani, senior politician in Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government, urged Russia to intervene in the crisis in order to prevent "further suffering and pain of the Kurdish people in Syria".
Turkish offensive begins.
On 9 October, Turkish president Erdoğan announced that the offensive against the SDF, Operation Peace Spring, had begun.
Analysis.
The Kurdish Rudaw Media Network asserted that Turkey did not have a pressing "security concern" for a buffer zone at all, noting that Turkey had managed to successfully prevent any border crossings during the siege of Kobanî without the need for a buffer zone.
The Turkish Ahval agency reported that joint U.S.-Turkish patrols suggested that the United States was "submitting" to Turkish demands and thus providing Turkey an 'entrée' into even more demands.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute's Turkey Analyst publication reported that Turkish authorities may have viewed the buffer zone as a way to "move beyond Kobanî" and restart the strained US- Turkey relations at the time, while giving political leverage to U.S. President Donald Trump to continue delaying the implementation of U.S. Congress-mandated sanctions against Turkey, which were voted in due to Turkey purchasing S-400 missile systems from Russia.
The conservative American news outlet "Washington Examiner" described the establishment of the buffer zone as "appeasement", which it dubbed "a terrible idea". The publication described Turkish intelligence as "deeply flawed and politicised", claimed that members of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's family and even Erdoğan himself might have "supported" both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda and asserted that Turkey's previous incursion into Northern Syria had ended in "anti-Kurdish ethnic cleansing".
The Israeli "Jerusalem Post" newspaper described the establishment of the buffer zone due to Turkish threats as a "rewriting of international law", which implicitly recognized a "right to invade" and would have great implications for other world conflicts by allowing militarily powerful nations to unilaterally assert themselves over weaker ones.
Russian-Turkish buffer zone.
On 22 October, Turkish President