Emissions, impacts and responses of the African continent related to climate change
Climate change in Africa is an increasingly serious threat as Africa is among the most vulnerable continents to the effects of climate change. Some sources even classify Africa as "the most vulnerable continent on Earth". Climate change and climate variability will likely reduce agricultural production, food security and water security. As a result, there will be negative consequences on people's lives and sustainable development in Africa. 
Over the coming decades, warming from climate change is expected across almost all the Earth's surface, and global mean rainfall will increase. Currently, Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world on average. Large portions of the continent may become uninhabitable as a result of the rapid effects of climate change, which would have disastrous effects on human health, food security, and poverty. Regional effects on rainfall in the tropics are expected to be much more spatially variable. The direction of change at any one location is often less certain. 
Observed surface temperatures have generally increased by about 1 °C in Africa since the late 19th century to the early 21st century. In the Sahel, the increase has been as much as 3 °C for the minimum temperature at the end of the dry season. Data for temperature and rainfall shows discrepancies from the norm, both in timing and location.
For instance, Kenya has a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The main climate hazards include droughts and floods as rainfall will likely become more intense and less predictable. Climate models predict that temperatures will rise by 0.5 to 2 °C. In the informal urban settlements of Nairobi the urban heat island effect adds to the problem as it creates even warmer ambient temperatures. This is due to home construction materials, lack of ventilation, sparse green space, and poor access to electrical power and other services. 
The African Union has put forward 47 goals and corresponding actions in a 2014 draft report to combat and mitigate climate change in Africa. The International Monetary Fund suggested in 2021 that $50 billion might be necessary to cover the costs of climate change adaptation in Africa.
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Greenhouse gas emissions.
Africa's per person greenhouse gas emissions are low compared to other continents. Emissions from land use change are uncertain, especially in Central Africa. The main source of uncertainty comes from carbon dioxide fluxes in the LULUCF sector (this acronym stands for land use, land-use change, and forestry). 
Impacts.
Temperature and weather changes.
Observed surface temperatures have generally increased over Africa since the late 19th century to the early 21st century by about 1 °C, but locally as much as 3 °C for minimum temperature in the Sahel at the end of the dry season. Observed precipitation trends indicate spatial and temporal discrepancies as expected. The observed changes in temperature and precipitation vary regionally.
Current climate models (as summarised in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report) predict increases in frequency and intensity of drought and heavy rainfall events. They also predict decreases in mean precipitation almost everywhere in Africa, with medium to high confidence. However, local rainfall trends and socio-climatic interactions are likely to manifest in mixed patterns. Therefore, the converging impacts of climate change will vary across the continent. In rural areas, rainfall patterns influence water usage.
A study in 2019 predicted increased dry spell length during wet seasons and increased extreme rainfall rates in Africa. In other words: "both ends of Africa's weather extremes will get more severe". The research found that most climate models will not be able to capture the extent of these changes because they are not convection-permitting at their coarse grid scales.
Sea level rise.
In Africa, future population growth amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030. By 2060 it will be around 185 to 230 million people, depending on the extent of population growth. The average regional sea level rise will be around 21 cm by 2060. At that point climate change scenarios will make little difference. But local geography and population trends interact to increase the exposure to hazards like 100-year floods in a complex way.
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In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the East Africa region. At least 750,000 people there are likely to be displaced from the coasts between 2020 and 2050. Scientific studies estimate that 12 major African cities would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$65 billion for the "moderate" climate change scenario RCP4.5 by 2050. These cities are Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda and Maputo. Under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 the damage would amount to US$86.5 billion. The version of the high-emission scenario with additional impacts from high ice sheet instability would involve up to US$137.5 billion in damages. The damage from these three scenarios accounting additionally for "low-probability, high-damage events" would rise to US$187 billion, US$206 billion and US$397 billion respectively. In these estimates, the Egyptian city of Alexandria alone accounts for around half of this figure. Hundreds of thousands of people in its low-lying areas may already need relocation in the coming decade. Across sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, damage from sea level rise could reach 2–4% of GDP by 2050. However this figure depends on the extent of future economic growth and adaptation.
In the longer term, Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania are likely to have the largest number of people affected by annual flooding amongst all African countries. This projection assumes global warming will reach 4 °C by the end of the century. That rise is associated with the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, 10 important cultural sites would be at risk of flooding and erosion by the end of the century. These are the Casbah of Algiers, Carthage Archaeological site, Kerkouane, Leptis Magna Archaeological site, Medina of Sousse, Medina of Tunis, Sabratha Archaeological site, Robben Island, Island of Saint-Louis and Tipasa. A total of 15 Ramsar sites and other natural heritage sites would face similar risks. These are Bao Bolong Wetland Reserve, Delta du Saloum National Park, Diawling National Park, Golfe de Boughrara, Kalissaye, Lagune de Ghar el Melh et Delta de la Mejerda, Marromeu Game Reserve, Parc Naturel des Mangroves du Fleuve Cacheu, Seal Ledges Provincial Nature Reserve, Sebkhet Halk Elmanzel et Oued Essed, Sebkhet Soliman, Réserve Naturelle d'Intérêt Communautaire de la Somone, Songor Biosphere Reserve, Tanbi Wetland Complex and Watamu Marine National Park.
Socioeconomic impacts.
Climate change will increasingly impact Africa due to many factors. These impacts are already being felt and will increase in magnitude if action is not taken to reduce global carbon emissions. The impacts include higher temperatures, drought, changing rainfall patterns, and increased climate variability. These conditions have a bearing on energy production and consumption. The recent drought in many African countries, which has been linked to climate change, adversely affected both energy security and economic growth across the continent.
Africa will be one of the regions most impacted by the adverse effects of climate change. Reasons for Africa's vulnerability are diverse and include low levels of adaptive capacity, poor diffusion of technologies and information relevant to supporting adaptation, and high dependence on agro-ecosystems for livelihoods. Many countries across Africa are classified as Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) with poor socio-economic conditions, and by implication are faced with particular challenges in responding to the impacts of climate change.
Pronounced risks identified for Africa in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report relate to ecosystems, water availability, and agricultural systems, with implications for food security.
In 2022, over 6,000 respondents from ten African nations took part in a climate survey conducted by the European Investment Bank. The survey found that 88% of respondents claimed climate change was hurting their lives, while 61% of respondents claimed that environmental destruction has impacted their income or source of livelihood. These losses are usually the result of severe drought, increasing sea levels or coastal erosion, or extreme weather events like floods or storms.
More than half of African respondents (57%) said that they or people they know have already made steps to adapt to the effects of climate change. Among these measures are investments in water-saving devices to mitigate the effects of drought and drain clearance ahead of flooding. 34% of all African respondents said climate change is one of the most pressing issues confronting their country, among other key issues such as inflation and access to health care.
Economic impacts.
Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world on average. Large portions of the continent may become uninhabitable as a result and Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) may decline by 2% as a result of a 1 °C rise in average world temperature, and by 12% as a result of a 4 °C rise in temperature. Crop yields are anticipated to drastically decrease as a result of rising temperatures and it is anticipated that heavy rains would fall more frequently and intensely throughout Africa, increasing the risk of floods.
Additionally, Africa loses between $7 billion and $15 billion a year due to climate change, projected to reach up to $50 billion by 2030.
Agriculture.
Agriculture is a particularly important sector in Africa, contributing towards livelihoods and economies across the continent. On average, agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa contributes 15% of the total GDP. ;ref name="OECD/FAO" ; ;/ref ; Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and 70% of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Smallholder farms account for 80% of cultivated lands in Sub-Saharan Africa. The IPCC in 2007 projected that climate variability and change would severely compromise agricultural productivity and access to food. This projection was assigned "high confidence". Cropping systems, livestock and fisheries will be at greater risk of pest and diseases as a result of future climate change. Crop pests already account for approximately 1/6th of farm productivity losses. Climate change will accelerate the prevalence of pests and diseases and increase the occurrence of highly impactful events. The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Africa will have serious implications for food security and livelihoods. Between 2014 and 2018, Africa had the highest levels of food insecurity in the world.
In relation to agricultural systems, heavy reliance on rain-fed subsistence farming and low adoption of climate smart agricultural practices contribute to the sector's high levels of vulnerability. The situation is compounded by poor reliability of, and access to, climate data and information to support adaptation actions. Observed and projected disruptions in precipitation patterns due to climate change are likely to shorten growing seasons and affect crop yield in many parts of Africa. Furthermore, the agriculture sector in Africa is dominated by smallholder farmers with limited access to technology and the resources to adapt.
Climate variability and change have been and continue to be the principal source of fluctuations in global food production across developing countries where production is highly rain-dependent. The agriculture sector is sensitive to climate variability, especially the inter-annual variability of precipitation, temperature patterns, and extreme weather events (droughts and floods). These climatic events are predicted to increase in the future and are expected to have significant consequences to the agriculture sector. This would have a negative influence on food prices, food security, and land-use decisions. Yields from rainfed agriculture in some African countries could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. To prevent the future destructive impact of climate variability on food production, it is crucial to adjust or suggest possible policies to cope with increased climate variability. African countries need to build a national legal framework to manage food resources in accordance with the anticipated climate variability. However, before devising a policy to cope with the impacts of climate variability, especially to the agriculture sector, it is critical to have a clear understanding of how climate variability affects different food crops. This is particularly relevant in 2020 due to the severe invasion of Locusts adversely affecting agriculture in eastern Africa. The invasion was partially attributed to climate change – the warmer temperature and heavier rainfall which caused an abnormal increase in the number of locusts.
In East Africa, climate change is anticipated to intensify the frequency and intensity of drought and flooding, which can have an adverse impact on the agricultural sector. Climate change will have varying effects on agricultural production in East Africa. Research