1983 U.S. war game
Proud Prophet was a war game played by the United States that was designed by Thomas Schelling and began on June 20, 1983. The simulation was played in real time during the Cold War. Proud Prophet was essentially played to test out various proposals and strategies, in response to the Soviet Union's military buildup. There were advocates for a number of strategies, which varied from demonstration nuclear attacks, limited nuclear war, and decapitation attacks. It was not possible for the United States to pursue each of these strategies. President Ronald Reagan and his administration were faced with the dilemma of figuring out how the United States should respond to the Soviet Union's large nuclear programs, while finding which strategy would be most effective.
The wargame, and the usage of wargames in general, demonstrates the importance of thinking about the unthinkable by running through scenarios and planning appropriate responses to opposing nuclear strikes. The game simulated conflict in a number of regions, from East Asia to Europe and in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The simulation consisted of 200 military personnel and politicians with only twelve days of actual play. Stretching the twelve days of gameplay over several week periods, personnel involved in the simulation were forced to make critical strategic and diplomatic decisions to test the effectiveness of the United States strike plan. Heightened tensions due to the ongoing Cold War made this simulation the most realistic in United States military history. For the first time ever, the secretary of defense and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff took part in the game, although their participation was concealed. One of the main purposes of the simulation was to test the response of the National Command Authority's (NCA) decision making when dealing with many different situations at once.
Although Proud Prophet was intended to help senior officials test their nuclear strategies, it was apparent that many of the concepts in place were incompatible with current military capabilities. Many important parts of this simulation saw limited use of de-escalation tactics. If a risk of a war did occur, many military advisors saw the use of nuclear missiles as the deterring factor when dealing with the Soviet Union. The idea behind this concept was that Soviet forces would seek ceasefire if the West moved to use nuclear weapons. The final outcome of the Proud Prophet war game would show the need to resolve global issues in times of war or potential war. The outcome of an all-out nuclear war is the total destruction of both sides involved, and a death toll nearly reaching half a billion with the remaining dying from starvation or lethal doses of radiation. The government file for Proud Prophet was not declassified until December 20, 2012, and was only declassified in part.
Educational objectives.
The educational objectives discussed based on Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.
Commands and agencies involved.
The list of organizations involved are found in Section II, Background Information, of the declassified Proud Prophet government document.
Lead-up to Proud Prophet.
Background.
The antagonism of the Cold War forced the United States leadership to contemplate the eventuality of a nuclear war, and how that decision may affect the American people. By the early 1980s, the Soviet Union had been on a two-decade arms buildup, including its nuclear and political arsenal. The question facing the United States was the best way to respond to this buildup. A number of strategies were proposed, including launch-on-warning, demonstration nuclear attacks, limited nuclear war, decapitation attacks on Soviet command and control, shifting a war into the Far East by attacking Soviet bases there, weapons in space, NATO armies charging into Eastern Europe and recruiting the Polish and Czech armies to help, and having China attack the Soviet Union in a two-front war. 
The multitude of proposed strategies necessitated an evaluation of their feasibility and practicality. There was much debate on this issue, which came to a head when Andrew W. Marshall, the director of net assessment, suggested a group is set up to help the Secretary of Defense assess the various strategies he was presented with and explore new options. This group consisted of military officers from each of the armed services, as well as senior civilians and consultants. These individuals would be granted access to the resources that the National War College had to offer, with no military interference.
This idea was not very popular with many generals, which led to the formulation of the Strategic Concepts Development Center (SCDC). The Secretary of Defense at the time, Caspar Weinberger, brought in Phillip A. Karber as the founding director, asking him to bring in the best and brightest strategists that were not ideological and represented a broad range of bipartisan views. This whole operation had to be done with the utmost confidentiality, making it that much harder. Soon after, the suggestion of a war game was brought up.
KAL-007.
The Soviet Union lived in significant fear of a possible World War Three, and because of this, tended to have a hair trigger when it came to reacting to an event. Hence, the threat of a nuclear war was a very real possibility, even if the reasons behind it are misunderstood. The Soviet Union was ready to go at any time, especially after being scared many times for smaller reasons.
On the night of September 1, 1983, a civilian Boeing 747 en route to South Korea passed into Soviet airspace near the Siberian coast. A Sukhoi Su-15 interceptor aircraft piloted by Gennadi Osipovich targeted the civilian aircraft and shot it down with two missiles. The Soviets claimed that they knew it was a civilian aircraft, however, they said it would be very easy to convert a civilian aircraft into an intelligence-gathering platform. The Soviets claimed they believed they had a justification to shoot down this aircraft because they perceived it to be a hostile intruder.
There were 62 Americans on board including Larry McDonald, a United States House of Representative member. Oleg Gordievsky believes that the Soviet Union mistook the civilian airliner to be a United States Boeing RC-135, which is a reconnaissance gathering aircraft which looks very similar to a Boeing 747, due to the fact that it has four engines and a wide body similar to the airliner. This is refuted by the pilots of the attacking Soviet aircraft claiming that he knew it was a civilian jet, but he shot it down anyway because it could have been easily converted for reconnaissance.
The attitude of the Soviets towards anything that might be perceived as a threat was devolving more and more towards a 'shoot first, ask questions later' mentality. While it may have been uncalled for, Soviets were on edge about everything at this point. This would prove to be incredibly dangerous in the impending strategic nuclear war exercises about to be conducted by the United States and its NATO allies.
Able Archer 83.
Able Archer 83 took place between November 2–11, 1983. This was a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) strategic arms exercise conducted by the United States government in order to simulate an escalating nuclear conflict. Staffs walked through the procedural drill which included asking permission from NATO political authorities to fire nuclear weapons. The codes were changed for Able Archer as there were new message formats and periods of radio silence. 
Able Archer 83 occurred just two months after the shootdown incident of Korean Air Lines Flight 007. The United States was simulating the deployment and use of the Pershing II nuclear missile system that was being developed at the time. The Soviets suspected the United States of performing a surprise nuclear attack with the Pershing II system, despite the fact that the Pershing II missiles were not delivered to Europe until November 22, eleven days after the conclusion of Able Archer 83.
The Soviets believed the United States had determined that a nuclear war was technically winnable. The reason behind this rationale by the Soviet Union was related to the fact that the United States had just recently upgraded its Minuteman III ICBM to the Minuteman IIIA. This ICBM was several times more accurate and had twice the yield of its predecessors, making Soviet hardened nuclear silos a viable target. That same year, the United States also introduced the Trident C-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile. All of these factors combined to make the Able Archer 83 test an incredibly stressful and dangerous time.
Able Archer was a standard military exercise that was performed annually by the United States. Unfortunately, in 1983, the aforementioned factors all came into play at the wrong time, and Soviet nuclear threat perceptions were at a critical level. While the United States Chiefs of Staff remained largely indifferent to this Soviet perception, the exercise was nonetheless "toned down" in order to assuage fears of impending WWIII. President Reagan and Vice President Bush were removed from participating in the exercise, however, it still remained one of the most realistic exercises to date, with a complete simulation of NATO forces going to DEFCON 1.
The Soviet leadership's suspicion of Able Archer 83 as an attempt at a surprise nuclear attack masquerading as an exercise grew with intelligence collections of United States message traffic which was "unusual" in its message formats and communications procedures. The unusual message procedures led Soviet leadership to believe that Able Archer may not be an exercise at all. This was coupled with a "too literal" interpretation of the scenario, whereby NATO forces were perceived by the Soviets to be at DEFCON 1. In actuality, the NATO forces were never at DEFCON 1, it was all simulated, however Soviet leadership still mistook the exercise for a real event.
RYAN.
Project VRYAN, or RYAN as it is more commonly known, is the Russian acronym for surprise nuclear attack. It was the largest Soviet intelligence-gathering program ever mounted in peacetime. The objective of RYAN was to monitor the United States and its NATO allies for any indicator whatsoever of an impending nuclear first strike. Project RYAN had the highest priority over any other intelligence-gathering initiative in the Soviet Union at the time, including any currently being undertaken by the KGB or the GRU. There were hundreds of indicators that were monitored by Project RYAN, including the United States economy. More specifically, any large-scale purchase of gold by the United States might indicate an impending nuclear apocalypse.
Traditional Soviet doctrine called for a first strike in order to make a nuclear war technically winnable. The Soviets kept most of their missiles in silos located throughout the country, whereas the United States had the majority of their warheads deployed on submarines. This fact contributed to the Soviet Union's increasing paranoia towards the United States, and more specifically, any exercises or war games the United States might participate in. Through this mindset came the philosophy of a Launched On Tactical Warning (LOTW) strike by the Soviets. This was essentially an automatic launch system that would deploy the Soviet Union's warheads at any sign of incoming United States missiles via radar or satellite detection. 
Because of Project VRYAN, any misreading of western intentions could have had disastrous consequences. The perception in the Soviet Union at the time was that the United States would stop at nothing to destroy them, including nuclear annihilation. KGB officers who were familiar with the West had no real sway in convincing others that there would never be a nuclear strike.
The directives of Project RYAN underscore how deeply rooted the idea of a Western first strike was in the minds of high-ranking Soviet officials. They truly believed that nuclear war was imminent, and the fear of a surprise nuclear attack was rapidly growing. Project RYAN was not established so the Soviets could strike second; instead, it was to ensure the Soviets had the necessary information in order to strike first.
Team B.
Background.
Team B was a military defense group formed in the late 1970s. This defense group was formed with the Central Intelligence Agency. The government was already having concerns about the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons, so they created this alliance to see what might be coming at the United States from Soviet powers. Team B was the reaction to the serious apprehension of the Soviet Union who believed that they could possibly be on the brink of World War III. Many members of the President's