2023 exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh
On 19–20 September 2023, Azerbaijan initiated a military offensive in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region which ended with the surrender of the self-declared Republic of Artsakh and the disbandment of its armed forces. Up until the military assault, the region was internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but governed and populated by ethnic Armenians.
Before the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, the region had an estimated population of 150,000 which decreased in the aftermath of the war. Faced with threats of ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijan and struggling amid a nine-month long blockade, 100,400 ethnic Armenians, representing 99% of the remaining population of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled by the end of September 2023, leaving only a couple of dozen people within the region as of November.
This mass displacement of people has been described by international experts as a war crime or crime against humanity. 218 civilians died during an explosion at a fuel distribution center, and 70 civilians died en route while fleeing to Armenia. While the Azerbaijani government issued assurances that the Armenian population would be safely reintegrated, these claims were not deemed credible due to Azerbaijan's established track record of authoritarianism and repression of its Armenian population.
Background.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is located within Azerbaijan but is predominantly inhabited by Armenians.
Cultural suppression during the Soviet period.
Between 1921 and 1990, under the Azeri SSR Armenians in the region faced economic marginalization and cultural discrimination, leading to a significant exodus. Authorities encouraged the settlement of Azeris from outside Nagorno-Karabakh. This policy – sometimes called a "White Genocide" – aimed at "de-Armenizing" the territory culturally and physically and followed a similar pattern to Azerbaijan's treatment of Armenians in Nakhchivan. The suppression of Armenian language and culture was widespread: Armenian churches, cemeteries, and schools were closed or destroyed, and clerics arrested. The Armenian educational institutions that remained were under control by the Azeri Ministry of Education, which enforced prohibitions against teaching Armenian history and using Armenian materials. Restrictions limited cultural exchanges and communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The Azerbaijani government decreed in 1957 that Azerbaijani was to be the main language and the 1981 "law of the NKAR" denied additional rights, removing provisions that had listed Armenian as a working language of local authorities. Resentment against what was perceived as a forced "Azerification" campaign led to a mass movement for reunification with Armenia and an independence referendum in 1991.
First and Second Nagorno-Karabakh War.
The Karabakh movement for independence was met with a and forced deportations of Armenians across Azerbaijan, leading to the outbreak of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. Azerbaijan severed transport and economic links between Armenia and Azerbaijan and between Artsakh and Armenia. The complete isolation of Artsakh from the outside world lasted for 3 years until Armenian forces opened a humanitarian corridor known as the Lachin corridor to Armenia in May 1992. The war resulted in the displacement of approximately 500,000 Azerbaijanis from Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent occupied territories as well as 186,000 from Armenia, and between 300,000 and 500,000 Armenians from Azerbaijan. A subsequent conflict, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, caused thousands of casualties and ended with a significant Azerbaijani victory. This war allowed Azerbaijan to reclaim all the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and a third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. After the 2020 war, violations of the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh and at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border persisted, resulting in sporadic casualties.
Blockade and capture of the region by Azerbaijan.
For nine months (December 2022 to September 2023), Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. During this period Azerbaijan also sabotaged critical civilian infrastructure of Artsakh, disrupting access to gas, electricity, and internet access. The blockade led to a humanitarian crisis for the population. In February 2023 the International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to ensure free movement to Nagorno-Karabakh, ruling that the blockade posed a "real and imminent risk" to the "health and life" of Nagorno-Karabakh's Armenian population. By early September 2023 the blockade had caused supplies to all but run out; there was little medicine or fuel, while bread, a staple in the region, was rationed to one loaf per family per day.
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All the above efforts have only one goal: ensure irreversible normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan for the benefit of all populations on the ground. It is now time for courageous compromise solutions, also in light of today's escalation.
 —Spokesperson of Charles Michel, President of the European Council, on 1 September 2023.
International observers, including Luis Moreno Ocampo, the inaugural prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, expressed concerns that Azerbaijan's blockade could be the onset of a genocide. Ocampo specifically stated that Azerbaijan's actions, which included withholding essential supplies like food and medicine, appeared to be a calculated effort to inflict on the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction. In August 2023, as a direct result of the blockade, a resident of Nagorno-Karabakh died from starvation. The spokesperson for Charles Michel, President of the European Council, stated their primary goal was the irreversible normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and called for "courageous compromise solutions". The Armenian President denounced Azerbaijan, asserting it was committing genocide by causing Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to starve. Similarly, Ronald Grigor Suny stated, "Baku is determined to make the Armenians' lives impossible, starve them out, and pressure them to leave."
On 19 September 2023, Azerbaijan initiated an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, aiming to disarm the self-declared republic's military. The assault, lasting 24 hours, resulted in hundreds of casualties from both sides and the deaths of five Russian peacekeepers. After the Republic of Artsakh's government agreed to surrender terms, negotiations ensued, leading Azerbaijan to eventually reopen the road to Armenia. This move provided Armenians an avenue to evacuate the region, and a significant number began departing from 24 September onward.
Flight.
Prior to the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, there were growing concerns that Azerbaijan, with a long history of Anti-Armenian sentiment, might perpetuate a genocide against the region's Armenians. Elchin Amirbeyov, the representative of the Azerbaijani president, predicted that "a genocide may happen" if the Republic of Artsakh did not capitulate. Echoing this concern Senator Bob Menendez, chair of the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, urged for sanctions to be imposed against Azerbaijan to prevent genocide.
In the wake of the collapse of the Nagorno-Karabakh defenses, the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention issued an alert, drawing attention to the acute risk of genocide faced by Armenians in the region and highlighting the extreme levels of anti-Armenian sentiments within the Azerbaijani military. Moreover, threats and abusive messages targeting civilians, even instances of reported massacres of Armenians who chose to stay, were rampant on Azerbaijani social media channels. In a concurrent announcement, Genocide Watch also sounded an alert, categorization the situation as Stage 9 within their ten stages of genocide framework – Extermination.
While the Azerbaijani government issued assurances that the Armenian population would be safely reintegrated, these claims were not deemed credible due to Azerbaijan's established track record of authoritarianism and repression of its Armenian population. Noting this history, the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention urged that Artsakhi women and children refuse being separated from men and older boys.
Timeline.
On 24 September, as fears of genocide, ethnic cleansing, and persecution surged, the evacuation of Armenian refugees began through the Lachin corridor, arriving in Syunik, Armenia via the Kornidzor border post. The Armenian government reported late on that day that 1,050 refugees had made their way to safety. Word of the passage spread, leading to a mass exodus.
By the evening of 25 September, according to the Armenian government, 6,500 refugees had arrived from Nagorno-Karabakh. After enduring months of scarce fuel supply while under blockade, the arrival of a fuel shipment gave residents the opportunity to refuel their vehicles for the journey to Armenia, and on 25 September, petrol stations in Stepanakert began distributing fuel at no cost to those evacuating to Armenia. However, amidst extensive lines at a fuel station in Berkadzor an underground 50-ton fuel tank exploded, leading to the death of at least 170 individuals and injuring hundreds of others. Most of the victims were queueing to obtain fuel for their vehicles while on their way to Armenia. Victims with various degrees of burns were treated in the Republican Medical Center of Artsakh, facilities of the Arevik community organization, medical facilities in Ivanyan, and the medical station of Russian peacekeepers. The Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan said it sent an ambulance carrying medical supplies. 142 of the injured were later brought to Armenia.
By 26 September, the Armenian government said at least 28,000 people had fled Nagorno-Karabakh, equivalent to a quarter of the region's population.
By 27 September, Armenian authorities reported that over 50,000 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh had left for Armenia, including 17,000 children. In separate events on 27 September, Ruben Vardanyan, a former high-level Artsakh government official and a prominent businessman, was apprehended by Azerbaijani forces just as he was poised to enter Armenia, and civilian accounts from the village of Vaghuhas reported that Azerbaijani soldiers had entered the village and, discharging their firearms into the air, demanded the residents flee.
By 28 September, the tally of arrivals in Armenia surpassed 65,000, accounting for over half of the Nagorno-Karabakh's total population. The evacuation route from Stepanakert to Armenia had been clogged for days, with many forced to sleep in their cars overnight. What typically is a 2-hour drive transformed into a staggering 30-hour journey for many evacuees.
By 29 September, the number of refugees had reached 97,700. Refugees reported spending days in the evacuation queue and moving forward only a few hundred meters a day. Armenian Health Minister Anahit Avanesian said some refugees died in transit due to exhaustion brought about by malnutrition, the lack of medicines and the travel time which took up to 40 hours.
By 30 September, the number of refugees had reached 100,400. On 2 October, the last bus carrying refugees composed of those with serious illnesses or mobility issues entered Armenia. The Armenian government stated that 100,514 of the estimated 120,000 population of Nagorno-Karabakh had been displaced as of 2 October, reaching 100,617 by noon of 3 October. The UN mission which was tasked with visiting the region, heard from interlocutors that on 1 October only 50 to 1000 Armenians were left in the entire Karabakh region.
On 19 October, the International Committee of the Red Cross reported that "a small number of people remain in their homes, either by choice or because they were unable to leave by themselves." The ICRC has provided food, medical care, communication services, and transportation to remaining residents.
Armenian support.
To aid in the evacuation, 46 buses, usually designated for public transport in Yerevan, transported 1,560 individuals from Stepanakert to Goris on 28 September. Armenia also sent 23 ambulances to Artsakh accompanied by specialists and the Red Cross, which returned transporting 23 severely injured people from Artsakh to Armenia.
In Armenia, the theatre in the city of Goris was converted into a base for the Red Cross to accommodate refugees. A secondary hub was later opened in Vayk.
Status of remaining residents.
Of the couple of dozen residents who stayed behind, the majority are believed to be elderly or disabled. Azerbaijan has confiscated their passports and monitors their communications.
Genocide and ethnic cleansing accusations.
Various political analysts, along with residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, accused Azerbaijan of committing ethnic cleansing.
Legal experts and international organizations.
Luis Moreno Ocampo, the inaugural Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, cautioned that conditions akin to another Armenian genocide were developing, stating that Azerbaijan's blockade violated Article II c of the 1948 Genocide Convention, by "deliberately inflicting on [a] group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part", and that the invasion further violated Article II a and Article II b. He warned that the international community's inertia could embolden Azerbaijan, making them believe there would be no significant repercussions for committing genocide. Ocampo also countered Aliyev's denial of seeking ethnic cleansing, noting that Aliyev often labeled Armenia as "Western Azerbaijan" and proclaimed that "present-day Armenia is our land". After all Armenians had been forced out of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ocampo declared this to constitute genocide under the articles of the Genocide Convention and accused Azerbaijan of committing crimes against humanity. Ocampo also accused the United States and other international meditators