Ongoing civil Unrest in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia
In May 2024, protests and riots broke out in New Caledonia, a "sui generis" collectivity of overseas France in the Pacific Ocean. The violent protests have led to at least 13 deaths, the declaration of a state of emergency on 16 May, deployment of the French army, and the block of the social network TikTok.
Violence broke out following a controversial voting reform aiming to change existing conditions which prevent up to one-fifth of the population from voting in provincial elections. Following the Nouméa Accord, the electorate for local elections was restricted to pre-1998 residents of the islands and their descendants who have maintained continuous residence on the territory for at least 10 years. The system, which excludes migrants from European and Polynesian parts of France, including their adult children, had been judged acceptable in 2005 as part of a decolonisation process by the European Court of Human Rights given that it was a provisional measure.
Voters in all three referenda were in favour of remaining part of France, though the 2021 referendum, conducted in the middle of the COVID-19 Pandemic, was boycotted by most independence supporters. For the French government, the referenda fulfilled the Nouméa Accord process, but independence advocates, who rejected the legitimacy of the boycotted 2021 referendum, considered the process defined by the Nouméa Accord to be still ongoing.
The French government is seeking to undo a 2007 Constitutional amendment, which allows the denial of voting rights in local elections to people even though they have resided in the territory for over 10 years. This reform would allow roughly 60% of those currently prevented from voting to join the electorate and has been decried by independence advocates as a dilution of the indigenous Melanesian Kanak people's political voice. President Emmanuel Macron visited the island on 22 May and asked local actors to reach a comprehensive agreement within a month, mentioning the possibility of a referendum concerning Paris' desired changes in voter eligibility rules.
The state of emergency ended on 28 May. Due to the 9 June dissolution of the National Assembly, Macron announced the "de facto" suspension of the Constitutional reform while it was impossible to convene the two houses of the French legislature.
Background.
New Caledonia is a French overseas territory in the southwest Pacific. It has a population of about 270,000; with the indigenous Kanak people constituting, according to the 2019 census, 41% of the population, the Europeans (Caldoche and metropolitan French) 28%, those of mixed race 11%, with other ethnic minorities (including Wallisians, Tahitians, Polynesians Ni-Vanuatu, Indonesians, Vietnamese and Chinese) constituting the remainder. New Caledonia became a French overseas territory in 1946 and has representatives in both houses of the French Parliament, while the President of France serves as the territory's head of state. France maintains jurisdiction over New Caledonia's justice system, defense, and internal security.
In 1988, following widespread political violence between Caldoches and indigenous Kanaks — a period referred to as "the Events" () — the Matignon Agreements were signed, establishing a transition to its current large autonomy as a "sui generis" collectivity within the French state. This was followed in 1998 by the Nouméa Accord. As part of the Accord, New Caledonia was allowed to hold three referendums to decide on the future status of the territory, with voting rights restricted to indigenous Kanak and other inhabitants living in New Caledonia before 1998.
"Frozen" electorate.
As part of the Nouméa Accord of 1998, the population of New Caledonia continued to vote in national elections—for the French president and National Assembly—but the number of people who can vote in provincial elections and independence referendums was restricted. This so-called "frozen electorate" consists only of those who were already living in New Caledonia in 1998 as well as their children, provided they maintained uninterrupted residence for ten years prior to each election. This deprived later immigrants, whether European or Polynesian, of voting rights. The number of excluded voters increased from 8,000 in 1999 to 18,000 in 2009 and to 42,000 in 2023, by which time almost one national voter out of five was excluded from participating in provincial elections (of 220,000 national voters only 178,000 were eligible). This restriction aimed at preventing the disempowerment of the native Kanak community that would result from the arrival in large number of people from metropolitan France.
Following a ruling by the French Constitutional Council in 1999 which limited the restriction to a simple ten-year residency requirement (a so-called "rolling electorate"), French president Jacques Chirac promised to have the French constitution amended on the request of independence groups in 2003. His parliamentary majority voted for the revision in 2007, thereby reverting to the "frozen electorate" rule. The European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2005 that the restriction did not infringe the right to free elections and did not give rise to discrimination on the grounds of national origin since "New Caledonia's current status reflects a transitional phase prior to the acquisition of full sovereignty and is part of a process of self-determination", with the system then in place being "incomplete and provisional", which has been interpreted to mean that the frozen electorate was validated on the condition that it was only a provisional measure.
Situation after independence referendums.
New Caledonia then had three consecutive independence referendums (in 2018, 2020 and 2021). Before the final referendum, the pro-independence candidate Louis Mapou was elected President of the Government of New Caledonia.
Results of the 2018 and 2020 referenda were 56.6% and 53.2% in favor of remaining part of France with 81% and 85.7% turnout respectively. With 46.7% of the vote in favor of independence and roughly 10,000 votes (of 155,000 participants) separating the two camps at the second referendum, the push for independence was stronger than expected. There was a very strong correlation between ethnic origin and voting, with the Kanaks overwhelmingly voting for and the other communities voting against independence. The pro-independence movement asked that the third referendum, which it had originally requested, be postponed due to the spread of COVID-19 within their community from September 2021 onward and the resulting impossibility of conducting a campaign while observing the customary Kanak mourning periods. The French government decided the referendum would go ahead as long as the sanitary situation improved. The anti-independence movement said that the 280 COVID-19 deaths were being instrumentalized by their opponents to postpone a referendum they were poised to lose. Partisans of independence had recently been weakened by their handling of the nickel economic crisis, as well as by the support given by France during the pandemic, which included 10 billion CFP franc (83 million euros) in financial aid, free vaccines, and medical staff from metropolitan France. The Kanak boycotted the referendum, resulting in a 96.5% victory for the anti-independence camp with 43.9% turnout. The national government viewed the "frozen electorate" as obsolete once the process of the three referenda defined by the Nouméa Accord ended. Documents published by the national government in 2021 listing the consequences of a "yes" or "no" vote in the referendum mentioned that the frozen electorate was not a permanent measure, but that it would not be automatically overturned by a third consecutive "no" vote.
Advocates for independence, who had boycotted the third referendum, considered it illegitimate, leading to institutional deadlock. Local talks ground to a halt and the next provincial election was rescheduled for 15 December 2024. On 26 December 2023, the Conseil d'État concluded that the current rules infringed significantly on universal suffrage, as they denied the vote to people either born or residing in New Caledonia for several decades.
Any revision of the transitional Nouméa Accord rules concerning eligible voters will require changes to the French constitution. At the beginning of 2024, the French government began a revision of the constitution which would "unfreeze" the electorate by keeping only a rolling ten-year residency requirement. Up to 25,841 people of the 42,000 excluded from the electorate would gain voting rights: 12,441 who were born and grew up in New Caledonia would gain the right automatically and up to 13,400 with ten years of continuous residence on the island could request it. A total of 16,000 citizens would remain excluded from participating in the provincial election. It included a clause that would prevent it from being implemented if a local deal between pro- and anti-independence groups was made at least ten days before the election.
A bipartisan group sent by the National Assembly to consult political, religious and tribal leaders concluded that "unfreezing" the electorate was a "legal and democratic necessity". It advised against doing so immediately due to the chaotic political situation. In its report released mid-March, it noted in particular the pessimistic mood prevalent on the island because of the chaotic political situation and permanent uncertainty about its future, which had led to the emigration of New Caledonians, often those excluded from the electorate, but also of educated Kanaks. This demographic trend mentioned in the report contrasts with the pro-independence claims of an ongoing demographic replacement via "massive immigration". The report caused controversy by relaying the opinion of several independence advocates, including Roch Wamytan, president of the Congress of New Caledonia, who asked whether President Emmanuel Macron was considering "recolonizing" New Caledonia and who further said that the "threshold of tolerance for whites" had been reached. Members of the pro-independence Caledonian Union also said that "If you make a change of the electorate, it will be war. Our youth is ready to go for it. If we have to sacrifice a thousand, we will do so".
On 2 April 2024, the French Senate, the French Parliament's upper house, voted to endorse constitutional amendments tabled by Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin to extend suffrage to those who had been residing in New Caledonia for an uninterrupted 10 years. On 15 April, groups of supporters and opponents staged competing marches in Nouméa in response to the proposed French constitutional amendment. The pro-independence march was organized by a field action coordination committee close to Union Calédonienne (UC), which is part of the FLNKS umbrella. The pro-French march was organized by the two pro-French parties Le Rassemblement and Les Loyalistes. The French High Commission estimated that a total of 40,000 people (15% of the population) attended the marches. Pro-independence organisers claimed 58,000 attended their rally and pro-French organizers claimed 35,000 attended theirs.
On 15 May, the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house voted in favor of the constitutional amendments by a margin of 351 to 153 votes. While right-wing parties supported "unfreezing" the list of voters, left-wing parties voted against the amendments. After passing both houses, the constitutional amendments still need to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the Congress of the French Parliament (a joint session of both the National Assembly and Senate).
Response to the bill.
Local leaders said that giving "foreigners" the right to vote would dilute the vote of indigenous Kanak people and increase the vote share for pro-French politicians.
Socio-economic factors.
The economy and unemployment were reportedly factors in the unrest due to the local nickel mining sector having experienced a downturn. According to Politico, New Caledonia has 30% of the world's nickel reserves. Nikkei Asia reported that New Caledonia had the 5th largest reserve of the world's nickel and that difficulties were caused by a glut in the global nickel market. Nickel mining makes up 90% of all exports and employs around a "quarter of its workforce" according to the Associated Press. By 2023, the nickel sector's profitability had declined due to governmental export restrictions, high energy costs and competition from Indonesian and other Asian nickel producers. With production down 32% in the first quarter of 2023, French authorities warned that the territory's three main nickel processing factories could shut down, leading to an unemployment crisis. Several major investors including Glencore and Euramet either curtailed new investments in New Caledonia or sought to sell off their holdings. The French government promised €200 million in subsidies for the nickel sector, but this "nickel pact" was denounced by independence supporters as a neocolonial measure that would increase Paris' power over the territory.
While strides have been made towards making access to higher education more equitable, the programs for secondary education are still decided in metropolitan France. In 2021, Kanaks were 2.4 times less likely to find a professional internship for their last year of middle school. In 2017,