Snap legislative elections were held on 10 March 2024 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 16th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election. The elections were called in November 2023 after Prime Minister António Costa's resignation following an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses.
No party achieved an absolute majority of seats, with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) led by Luís Montenegro winning 80 seats, closely followed by the Socialist Party (PS), which lost the absolute majority it had gained in the 2022 elections, and was reduced to 78 seats. The election also saw the surge of the right-wing populist Chega party as the third-largest party in parliament, more than quadrupling its previous seat count to 50 seats. Turnout in the election was at 59.9 percent, the highest since 2005, and in Portugal alone, turnout rose to 66.2%, the highest rate since 1995.
The leader of the largest party, Luís Montenegro, would go on to form a centre-right minority government ending nearly a decade of rule by the Socialist Party.
Background.
The Socialist Party (PS), led by Prime Minister António Costa, won an absolute majority in the 2022 legislative election with 41 percent of the votes and 120 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), got 77 seats and 29 percent of the votes, while the populist party Chega ("Enough") gained 12 seats and seven percent. The Liberal Initiative (IL) were able to win eight seats and gather almost five percent of the votes. The left-wing/far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved one of their worst results ever with four percent of the votes and six and five seats, respectively. PAN and LIVRE were able to win just one seat each.
António Costa's third government was sworn in on 30 March 2022. This government was unstable and experienced several scandals and controversies. By mid-2023, the government had seen the resignations of 11 secretaries of state and two ministers. The biggest scandal involved TAP Air Portugal and a compensation payment to a government member, Alexandra Reis. This case was followed by a violent incident, in late April 2023, at the Ministry of Infrastructure, between government staff members and an advisor to Minister João Galamba regarding an alleged stolen laptop. The deployment of the Portuguese Secret Services in this case stirred a clash between Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, the incumbent president of Portugal, and Prime Minister António Costa concerning the future of Galamba and the government itself.
Fall of the previous government.
On 7 November 2023, the Public Security Police and the Public Prosecutor's office carried out a series of searches at the official residence of the Prime Minister and other ministries, leading to the arrest of the Prime Minister's chief of staff. Costa was named as a suspect in a corruption case involving the awarding of contracts for the lithium and hydrogen businesses, but denied any wrongdoing. He met President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the Presidential Palace and announced his resignation shortly after, stating that he would not run for re-election.
The President heard all parties after Costa's resignation. The Socialist Party proposed a new cabinet led by President of the Assembly of the Republic Augusto Santos Silva or Governor of the Bank of Portugal Mário Centeno that would last until the end of the government's term in 2026, while all opposition parties, except PAN, supported an early election. The President has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic at their discretion; they are not required to do so when a prime minister resigns. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, after meeting with the Council of State, dissolved the assembly and called an early election for 10 March 2024.
The Prime Minister's resignation was not made official immediately; it was postponed until 8 December 2023, so that the State Budget for 2024 could be approved by parliament. It was the first time a single party majority government did not complete its full term in democratic Portugal.
Date.
According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election date must be announced at least 60 days before the election. If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seat constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. In normal circumstances, the next legislative election would, therefore, have taken place no later than 11 October 2026.
On 9 November 2023, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced he would dissolve the parliament and called an early election for 10 March 2024. On 15 January 2024, the President signed the decree that officially dissolved Parliament and set the date for the elections. Campaigning officially began on 25 February and lasted for two weeks.
Leadership changes and challenges.
CDS – People's Party.
In the 2022 elections, the CDS – People's Party was wiped out from Parliament for the first time in 47 years of democracy. CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos resigned on election night and announced that a leadership ballot would be held. On 11 February, it was announced that a new leader would be elected in a party congress on 2 and 3 April 2022 held in Guimarães. MEP Nuno Melo, former MP Nuno Correia da Silva, 2016 leadership candidate Miguel Mattos Chaves and Bruno Filipe Costa announced they would contest the ballot. During the congress, Bruno Filipe Costa and Nuno Correia da Silva dropped out from the race. Nuno Melo was easily elected as leader with more than 77 percent of the votes. The results were the following:
Social Democratic Party.
After the Social Democratic Party's (PSD) defeat in the 2022 legislative election, Rui Rio announced he would resign and not run again for the PSD leadership, calling a leadership election to elect a new leader. The ballot was held on 28 May 2022. Luís Montenegro, former PSD parliamentary group leader (2011–2018), and Jorge Moreira da Silva, former Environment minister (2013–2015), were the only candidates on the ballot. Around 45,000 party members, out of more than 85,000 active members, registered to vote. Montenegro defeated Moreira da Silva by a landslide, becoming the 19th leader of the party. The results were as follows:
Portuguese Communist Party.
On 5 November 2022, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) announced that Jerónimo de Sousa, party leader since 2004, was departing from the leadership for health reasons and the demands that the post requires. The party chose Paulo Raimundo, a party cadre and member since 1994, as new leader whose nomination was confirmed in a Central Committee meeting on 12 November 2022 by unanimous vote, with one abstention, from Raimundo himself. The results were the following:
Liberal Initiative.
On 23 October 2022, party leader João Cotrim Figueiredo announced he was leaving Liberal Initiative's party leadership and called a leadership election. Shortly after Cotrim's announcement, an MP Rui Rocha from Braga constituency, stepped forward and announced his intention to run for the leadership. Two days later, Carla Castro, a Lisbon MP, also presented her candidacy for the leadership. A few weeks later, the party decided on a date and location for the leadership ballot – the new leader would be elected in a National Convention between 21 and 22 January 2023 in Lisbon. A third candidate for the leadership, José Cardoso, a critic of Figueiredo's leadership and strategy, announced his candidacy on 2 January 2023. Around 2,300 party members registered to vote in the leadership convention. Rui Rocha was elected as the 4th President of the Liberal Initiative with almost 52 percent of the votes. The results were the following:
People Animals Nature.
People Animals Nature ("Pessoas-Animais-Natureza" – PAN) held a leadership ballot on 20 May 2023. Two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Inês Sousa Real and Nelson Silva, MP between 2019 and 2022. Silva accused Sousa Real of leading the party to irrelevance and said that now it's time to "save" and "rebuild" the party. In a rather tense congress, with strong accusations between both sides, Inês Sousa Real was re-elected party leader with 73 percent of the votes. The results were the following:
Left Bloc.
On 14 February 2023, party coordinator Catarina Martins announced she would not run for another term as party leader. Her reasons were that in the party very long periods of leadership are not desirable and that the "new political cycle" demanded a change. A party leadership convention was held between 27 and 28 May 2023, in Lisbon.
After MEP Marisa Matias and caucus leader Pedro Filipe Soares declined to run, MP Mariana Mortágua decided to run for the party leadership. Her candidacy was confirmed on 27 February 2023. A list of critics of the then party leadership, led by former MP Pedro Soares, opposed Mortágua in the convention ballot. On 28 May 2023, Mariana Mortágua was easily elected as new party coordinator with 83 percent of the delegates' votes. The results were the following:
Socialist Party.
After the resignation of António Costa as Prime Minister on 7 November 2023, following the Operation Influencer corruption investigation, and his announcement that he would not run again for office, the Socialist Party (PS) held a leadership election to elect a new leader on 15 and 16 December 2023. On 9 November 2023, former Minister of Infrastructure and Housing Pedro Nuno Santos announced his candidacy for the party leadership, while Minister of Internal Administration José Luís Carneiro announced his intention to run on the following day. On 18 November 2023, Daniel Adrião, a member of the National Commission of PS and candidate in the PS leadership elections of 2016, 2018 and 2021, announced his candidacy. On 16 December, Pedro Nuno Santos was easily elected with almost 61 percent of the votes, compared with 37 percent for José Luís Carneiro. The results were the following:
Electoral system.
The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected for four-year terms. Governments do not require an absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposition MPs is larger than that of its supporters, the opposition still needs to be equal to or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.
The number of seats assigned to each constituency depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.
The distribution of MPs by constituency for the 2024 legislative election is the following:
Early voting.
Voters were also able to vote early, which happened on 3 March, one week before election day. Voters had to register between 25 and 29 February 2024 in order to be eligible to cast an early ballot. By the 29 February deadline, 208,007 voters had requested to vote early, a number well below the 2022 figures. On 3 March, 180,835 voters (86.9 percent of voters that requested) cast an early ballot.
Parties.
Parties and/or coalitions that intended to run had until 29 January 2024 to file lists of candidates. Eighteen parties and/or coalitions filed lists to contest the election. The Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM) contested the election in a coalition called "Democratic Alliance" (AD). This coalition was on the ballot in mainland Portugal and the Azores. In Madeira, the coalition was only between PSD and CDS–PP, called "Madeira First". PPM ran alone in Madeira. The Communist Party (PCP) renewed their coalition with the Greens (PEV), "Unitary Democratic Coalition" (CDU), as has been the case since 1987. The Earth Party (MPT) and Alliance (A) also contested the election under a coalition called "Alternative 21" (A21).
Parliamentary factions.
The table below lists the parties and/or coalitions represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 15th legislature (2022–2024) and that also contested the 2024 elections:
Non-represented parties.
The table below lists the parties