British leadership election to replace Theresa May
The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when Theresa May announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June and as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom once a successor had been elected. Nominations opened on 10 June; 10 candidates were nominated. The first ballot of members of Parliament (MPs) took place on 13 June, with exhaustive ballots of MPs also taking place on 18, 19 and 20 June, reducing the candidates to two. The general membership of the party elected the leader by postal ballot; the result was announced on 23 July, with Boris Johnson being elected with almost twice as many votes as his opponent Jeremy Hunt.
Speculation about a leadership election first arose following the party's performance at the 2017 snap general election. May had called it in hope of increasing her parliamentary majority for Brexit negotiations. However, the Conservatives lost their overall majority in the House of Commons. Subsequent speculation arose from the difficulties May had in obtaining a Brexit deal acceptable to the Conservative Party. These increased in November 2018, with members of the Eurosceptic European Research Group pushing for a vote of no confidence in May; the forty-eight letter threshold to force a confidence vote was met in December 2018; however, May won the vote and remained in office. In early 2019, Parliament repeatedly voted against May's proposed deal, leading to her resignation.
The first members' vote leadership election of the Conservative Party was held in 2001, but since then the party had been in opposition during all leadership elections except in 2016, which concluded with Andrea Leadsom withdrawing before the members' vote. Johnson became the first Conservative Party leader elected by members to immediately assume the role of prime minister.
Background.
After the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum saw a 52% to 48% vote in favour of leaving, David Cameron resigned as leader of the Conservative Party and as prime minister, triggering the 2016 Conservative Party leadership election. Theresa May, then serving as home secretary, won the contest after the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom, and succeeded Cameron as prime minister on 13 July 2016.
Snap general election and aftermath.
May began the process of Brexit, the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, by triggering Article 50 on 29 March 2017. In April 2017, May announced a snap general election in June in order to "strengthen her hand" when she negotiated with the European Union. May aimed to substantially increase the Conservative Party's slim majority, with opinion polls originally predicting a landslide victory for her party. However, the result was a hung parliament, with the number of Conservative seats falling from 330 to 317. This prompted her to broker a confidence and supply deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to support her minority government.
May's handling of the campaign was widely criticised, particularly the role of her chiefs of staff Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, who both resigned within days of the result. In June 2017, George Osborne, a former chancellor of the Exchequer, described May as a "dead woman walking". A YouGov poll for "The Sunday Times" had 48% of respondents saying May should resign, with 38% against. A Survation poll for "The Mail on Sunday" showed a similar result. The former Cabinet minister Anna Soubry called for May to "consider her position" after the election result. The former Cabinet minister Nicky Morgan said that May could not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election, and called for a leadership election in the summer or in 2018 before the Brexit deal would be finalised. After the Grenfell Tower fire in June 2017, May's leadership faced further criticism following her initial refusal to meet victims, and what was described as her poor handling of the crisis.
With May's position weakened, senior figures in the party were said to be preparing for a leadership contest and "jostling for succession". Politicians and journalists did not expect May to lead the party at the next general election. Tim Shipman, Political Editor of "The Sunday Times", described "the first shots in a battle that could tear the government apart" as the three leading contenders at that time for the leadership, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond, briefed against each other. Andrew Mitchell, an ally of Davis, was said to have told a dinner that May was finished and was said to be organising letters to force May to announce her date of departure. A July 2017 report in "The Independent" said a core of fifteen Conservative MPs were ready to sign letters of no confidence, with forty-eight needed to trigger a contest.
May reportedly announced to Conservative MPs in August 2017 that she would resign as prime minister on 30 August 2019. She then announced on 31 August 2017 that she intended to stay on to fight the next general election, which under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was scheduled to be in 2022, though it could be held earlier.
On 16 September 2017, Johnson published an article in "The Daily Telegraph" laying out his vision for Brexit. Many saw this as a way of positioning himself for a leadership challenge, though some commentators such as columnist Iain Dale and "Newsnight"'s political editor Nick Watt argued this was the wrong interpretation and that Johnson's motivation was to assert his influence in Brexit negotiations. The timing of the article—a few days before May was due to give a significant speech on her plans for the UK's relationship with Europe after Brexit, and shortly after a terrorist attack in London—was criticised.
Summer 2018 Cabinet resignations.
Following Cabinet agreement for May's proposals on Brexit, Davis resigned as Brexit secretary on 8 July 2018. Steve Baker, a minister in the same department, resigned later the same day. On the same day it was reported that May was facing the threat of a leadership contest amid mounting anger from supporters of a hard Brexit over her government's Brexit policy. Backbencher Andrea Jenkyns called for her to be replaced, saying "Theresa May's premiership is over". Johnson later resigned as foreign secretary on 9 July 2018.
A "Daily Telegraph" article by Johnson opposing the burqa ban in Denmark in early August 2018 sparked controversy over the language he used, saying women wearing the burqa look like letterboxes or bank robbers. Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura, writing in the "New York Times", saw it as an attempt to court an anti-Islamic segment of the Conservative Party membership, who would be the electorate in the final stage of a leadership campaign. Former attorney general Dominic Grieve said that he would not remain in the party if Johnson became leader.
Brexit deal presented.
In November 2018, May presented her final proposal for an initial Brexit deal following negotiations with the EU. Brexit secretary Dominic Raab and others resigned from the Cabinet in response, with Jacob Rees-Mogg calling for a leadership election for the first time. Members of the Eurosceptic European Research Group including Rees-Mogg and Baker were seen to be launching a coup in mid-November following the Cabinet resignations. There was considerable speculation about whether enough letters of no confidence would be reached to trigger a vote.
Fifteen percent of the parliamentary party (forty-eight MPs) need to send a letter to the chairman of the 1922 Committee to trigger a no confidence vote in the Conservative Party leader. As of early afternoon on 16 November 2018, the BBC reported there were twenty-one MPs who had publicly stated they had sent a letter. Baker asserted that more letters had been sent and that he expected forty-eight to be reached in the week beginning 19 November. Some commentators expressed scepticism about this prediction. By 19 November 2018, twenty-six MPs publicly said they had submitted letters. Baker also suggested that the ERG could draw lots for who would be their candidate in a leadership election. By 20 November, the forty-eight letters had not been reached, with Rees-Mogg predicting that it may be reached in December when the House of Commons was due to vote on May's deal. However, facing likely defeat with opposition from the ERG, DUP and Conservative MPs who had supported Remain during the referendum, the vote in Parliament was delayed to January.
Conservative MPs including Dominic Grieve and Kwasi Kwarteng suggested that the party could see members leaving the party or a formal split if the party were led by Johnson.
12 December confidence vote.
By 11 December, the public count was still at twenty-six letters from MPs. That day, however, Owen Paterson publicly sent his letter and it later became clear that forty-eight letters had been submitted. May was informed, and chose to contest the vote. The confidence vote, held on 12 December, was a secret ballot of Conservative MPs.
In the week, May had been meeting EU leaders to discuss changes to her Brexit deal, but cancelled a planned 12 December meeting with the Irish Taoiseach in order to campaign to win the confidence vote. May and her supporters argued that a defeat for her would mean that Brexit would have to be delayed. In a speech to Conservative MPs immediately before voting, May said that she did not intend to lead the party into the 2022 general election and that she would seek a legally binding addition to the withdrawal agreement with the EU to address concerns over the Northern Ireland backstop.
Two MPs who had been suspended from the party, Andrew Griffiths and Charlie Elphicke, had the whip restored on the day of the vote, meaning they could also vote. Griffiths indicated his support for May; Elphicke declined to indicate his preference. There were 317 Conservative MPs able to vote. Every member of the Cabinet declared their support for May, including Leave supporters in the Cabinet like Michael Gove and Liam Fox. Notable Remain supporters in the Conservative Party including Anna Soubry also declared support for May, as did May's predecessor, David Cameron, and the leader and acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives. The Tory Reform Group announced their support for May. Notable Leave supporters outside the Cabinet, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Bill Cash, said they would vote against her.
May won the vote by 200 for to 117 against. Brexit-supporting MPs varied in their response to the result: some, including Rees-Mogg and Raab, called on her to resign nevertheless, while others such as Paterson called on her to change her Brexit policy. As May won this vote, another party leader confidence vote could not be held for one year under standing rules.
Further Brexit delays and May's final days.
On 27 March 2019, May said she would resign before the next stage of EU negotiations if her Brexit deal was passed. With no resolution around Brexit plans, there was continuing pressure for May to resign through April 2019.
Following poor Conservative results in the 2019 local elections—the worst since 1995, when the party lost over 1,000 seats—there were further calls from Conservatives for May to resign. Davis announced his support for Raab, who set out a leadership platform in an interview with "The Sunday Times Magazine". With one report saying May intended to remain until autumn 2019, further senior Conservatives openly campaigned to replace her, including Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid.
May had said that she wanted Parliament to approve her Brexit plan before the summer recess, after which she would resign, which would have been around late July. Further pressure mounted on May to be clear about her timetable for departure, with May meeting the 1922 Committee on the matter on 16 May 2019. There was talk about the Committee changing its rules to allow a new vote of no confidence in May to be held sooner. May was reported as having agreed to stand down by 30 June 2019.
On 21 May, May made a speech outlining her plan to introduce an EU withdrawal agreement bill in June that would allow the Commons to make amendments, such as amendments in favour of a Customs Union or a second referendum, but this was received badly by much of her own party as well as by other parties. There were growing calls for her to resign on 22 May, the day before the European Parliament elections. Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, resigned that day. May had planned to publish