North Indian Ocean cyclone in 2008
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Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (; , ) was an extremely destructive and deadly tropical cyclone that caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Myanmar during early May 2008. The cyclone made landfall in Myanmar on Friday, 2 May 2008, sending a storm surge 40 kilometres up the densely populated Irrawaddy delta, causing catastrophic destruction and at least 138,373 fatalities. The Labutta Township alone was reported to have 80,000 dead, with about 10,000 more deaths in Bogale. There were around 55,000 people missing and many other deaths were found in other towns and areas, although the Myanmar government's official death toll may have been under-reported, and there have been allegations that government officials stopped updating the death toll after 138,000 to minimise political fallout. The feared 'second wave' of fatalities from disease and lack of relief efforts never materialised. Damage was at 13 trillion kyat (US$15.3 billion), making Nargis the costliest tropical cyclone on record in the North Indian Ocean at the time, before that record was broken by Amphan in 2020.
The first named storm of the 2008 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Nargis developed on 27 April in the central area of Bay of Bengal. Initially, the storm tracked slowly northwestward, and encountering favourable conditions, it quickly strengthened. Dry air weakened the cyclone on 29 April, though after beginning a steady eastward motion, Nargis rapidly intensified to attain peak winds of at least on 2 May, according to IMD observations; the JTWC assessed peak winds of , making it a weak Category 4 cyclone on the SSHWS. The cyclone moved ashore in the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar at peak intensity and, after passing near the major city of Yangon (Rangoon), the storm gradually weakened until dissipating near the border of Myanmar and Thailand.
Nargis is the deadliest named cyclone in the North Indian Ocean Basin, as well as the second-deadliest named cyclone of all time, behind Typhoon Nina of 1975. Including unnamed storms like the 1970 Bhola cyclone, Nargis is the fifth-deadliest cyclone of all time, but an uncertainty between the deaths caused by Nargis and those caused by other cyclones (like the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone), could put Nargis as the fourth-deadliest or higher, because the exact death toll is uncertain. Nargis was the first tropical cyclone to strike the country since Cyclone Mala made landfall in 2006, which was slightly stronger, but had a significantly lower impact. According to reports, Indian authorities had warned Myanmar about the danger that Cyclone Nargis posed 48 hours before it hit the country's coast.
Relief efforts were slowed for political reasons as Myanmar's military rulers initially resisted large-scale international aid. US President George W. Bush said that an angry world should condemn the way Myanmar's military rulers were handling the aftermath of such a catastrophic cyclone. Myanmar's military junta finally accepted aid a few days after India's request was accepted.
Hampering the relief efforts, only ten days after the cyclone, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake occurred nearby and measured 7.9 in magnitude, taking 87,476 lives and causing US$150 billion in damage in the process, making it the costliest disaster in Chinese history and fourth-costliest disaster ever known. Furthermore, some donated aid items were found to be available in the country's black market, and Myanmar's junta warned on 15 May that legal action would be taken against people who traded or hoarded international aid.
Meteorological history.
Towards the end of April 2008, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the Indian Ocean became very active, with a tropical disturbance developing under its influence during 25 April. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance gradually developed further within an area of low vertical wind shear, before it was classified as a depression by the India Meteorological Department early on 27 April. Initially, the depression moved westward and was classified as a deep depression by the IMD, before the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) initiated advisories and classified the storm as Tropical Cyclone 01B later that day. The system subsequently started to move north-westwards under the steering influence of an anticyclone and an upper-level ridge of high pressure.
At 0000 UTC, 5:30 AM Indian Standard Time, on 28 April, the IMD upgraded the system to Cyclonic Storm Nargis, while it was located about 550 km (340 mi) east of Chennai, India.
On 28 April, Nargis became nearly stationary, while situated between high-pressure ridges to its northwest and southeast. That same day, the JTWC upgraded the storm to cyclone status, the equivalent of a minimal Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. Around the same time, the IMD upgraded Nargis to a severe cyclonic storm. The cyclone developed a concentric eye feature, which is an eyewall outside another eyewall, with warm waters aiding in further intensification. Early on 29 April, the JTWC estimated Nargis reached winds of , and at the same time, the IMD classified the system as a very severe cyclonic storm. Initially, the cyclone was forecast to strike Bangladesh or southeastern India. Subsequently, the cyclone became disorganised and weakened due to subsidence and drier air; as a result, deep convection near the center markedly decreased. At the same time, the storm began a motion to the northeast, around the periphery of a ridge to its southeast. The circulation remained strong despite the diminishing convection, though satellite intensity estimates using the Dvorak technique indicated the cyclone could have weakened to tropical storm status. By late on 29 April, convection had begun to rebuild, though immediate restrengthening was prevented by increased wind shear.
On 1 May 2008, after turning nearly due eastward, Cyclone Nargis began rapidly intensifying, due to greatly improved outflow aided by an approaching upper-level trough. Strengthening continued as Nargis developed a well-defined eye with a diameter of 19 km (12 mi), and early on 2 May, the JTWC estimated that the cyclone reached peak 1-minute winds of , as it approached the coast of Myanmar, making it a Category 4 storm. At the same time, the IMD assessed Nargis as attaining peak 3-minute sustained winds of . Around 1200 UTC on 2 May, Cyclone Nargis made landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar at peak strength. The storm gradually weakened as it proceeded east over Myanmar, with its proximity to the Andaman Sea preventing rapid weakening. Its track turned to the northeast due to the approach of a mid-latitude trough to its northwest, passing just north of Yangon with winds of . Early on 3 May, the IMD issued its final advisory on the storm. Nargis quickly weakened after turning to the northeast, toward the rugged terrain near the Myanmar–Thailand border, and after deteriorating to minimal tropical storm status, the JTWC issued its last advisory on Nargis.
Impact.
Western Bay of Bengal.
On 27 and 28 April, the cyclone enhanced the South-West Monsoon over Sri Lanka, which resulted in very heavy rain, flooding, and landslides being reported within the Western, Sabaragamuwa and Southern provinces. The districts of Ratnapura and Kegalle were the most affected, where more than 3,000 families were displaced. Thousands of houses were flooded, with 21 reported destroyed. The rainfall left 4,500 people homeless, and more than 35,000 people were affected on the island. Three people were reported injured on the island, while two were reported dead.
The India Meteorological Department recommended that fishermen should not sail on the ocean during the passage of Nargis. Strong waves and gusty winds were expected along the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coastline in India. Additionally, the influence of the cyclone lowered temperatures along the Indian coastline, which had been affected by a severe heat wave.
When the cyclone was originally expected to strike near Bangladesh, officials requested farmers to hurriedly finish harvesting the rice crop. At the time, the country was experiencing severe food shortages from Cyclone Sidr in the previous year and flooding earlier in the year, and a direct strike from Nargis would have resulted in destroyed crops due to strong winds.
Myanmar.
The United Nations estimated that 1.5 million people were "severely affected" by Nargis. It was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the North Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, with estimates of people missing at 53,836 and 84,537 confirmed dead. At least 10,000 people were reported to have perished in the delta town of Bogale alone. The total death total is unknown, as critics of the junta argue that the numbers where unreported to avoid political fallout. It is now thought that hundreds of thousands of people will never be found after Nargis because their bodies have decayed, been buried, or were washed out to sea. Some NGOs estimated that the final death toll would be over 100,000, while one Save The Children's aid worker claimed that the death toll from the cyclone and its aftermath might reach 300,000; if correct, Nargis was the second-deadliest cyclone ever and the fifth-deadliest natural disaster since 1900, after the 1931 China floods. Other more deadly natural disasters include the 1887 Yellow River flood, the 1556 Shaanxi earthquake, and the 1970 Bhola cyclone in Bangladesh.
Andrew Kirkwood, country director of the British charity Save The Children, stated: "We're looking at 50,000 dead and millions of homeless, I'd characterise it as unprecedented in the history of Myanmar and on an order of magnitude with the effect of the [2004] tsunami on individual countries. There might well be more dead than the tsunami caused in Sri Lanka." Foreign aid workers estimated that 2 million to 3 million were homeless, often going to one of 260,000 refugee camps in Myanmar. It was likely the worst disaster in Myanmar's history, and the total damages were comparable to that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
Thousands of buildings were destroyed; in the town of Labutta, in the Ayeyarwady Division, state television reported that 75 percent of buildings had collapsed and 20 percent had their roofs ripped off. One report indicated that 95 percent of buildings in the Irrawaddy Delta area were destroyed. The Ministry of Religious Affairs stated that 1,163 temples were destroyed in Ayeyarwady Division and 284 in Yangon Division.
The Burmese government formally declared five regions—Yangon, Ayeyarwady, Bago Divisions and Mon and Kayin States— as disaster areas.
A United Nations official commented as follows: "It's a bad situation. Almost all the houses are smashed. People are in a terrible situation." Another UN official said that "The Irrawaddy delta was hit extremely hard not only because of the wind and rain but because of the storm surge." Burst sewage mains caused the landscape to flood with waste, ruining the rice crop.
"The Daily Telegraph" (UK) reported that food prices in Myanmar could be affected. Woradet Wirawekhin (th: วรเดช วีระเวคิน), deputy director general of Thailand's Department of Information, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated on 7 May 2008 that, in reference to a report submitted by Bansan Bunnak (th: บรรสาน บุนนาค), the Thai ambassador in Yangon, conditions in the city had deteriorated and that most businesses and markets were closed. Mr. Wirawekhin also reported that the locals faced even more adversity in basic subsistence, because local food prices had increased two- or threefold.
Aftermath.
International relief.
On 6 May 2008, the Burmese government representation in New York City formally asked the United Nations for help, but in other ways it remained resistant to the most basic assistance. On 7 May 2008, the government of Myanmar had not officially endorsed international assistance, but stated that they were, "willing to accept international assistance, preferably bilateral, government to government." The biggest challenge was obtaining visas for entry into the country.
According to "Thai Rath" Newspaper of Thailand on 8 May 2008, in the afternoon (Bangkok time) of 7 May 2008, the Burmese junta permitted Italian flights containing relief supplies from the United Nations, and twenty-five tonnes of consumable goods, to land in Myanmar. However, many nations and organisations hoped to deliver assistance and relief to Myanmar without delay; most of their officials, supplies and stores were waiting in Thailand and at the Yangon airport, as the Burmese junta declined to issue visas for many of those individuals. These political tensions raised the concern that some food and medical supplies might become unusable, even before the Burmese junta officially accepted the international relief effort.
Bangladesh.
Bangladesh, which has had experience with cyclones in the past, was one of the first countries to supply aid to Myanmar in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis. Two planes carrying aid, organised by the Bangladesh Army, were sent to Myanmar on 8 May