Military offensive by Azerbaijan
Between 19 and 20 September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive against the self-declared breakaway state of Artsakh, a move seen as a violation of the ceasefire agreement signed in the aftermath of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. The offensive took place in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is "de jure" a part of Azerbaijan, and was a "de facto" independent republic. The stated goal of the offensive was the complete disarmament and unconditional surrender of Artsakh, as well as the withdrawal of all ethnic Armenian soldiers present in the region. The offensive occurred in the midst of an escalating crisis caused by Azerbaijani Armed Forces blockading Artsakh, which has resulted in significant scarcities of essential supplies such as food, medicine, and other goods in the affected region.
One day after the offensive started on 20 September, a ceasefire agreement described as a written agreement for the surrender of Artsakh was reached at the mediation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent where it was agreed that the Artsakh Defence Army would be disarmed. Ceasefire violations by Azerbaijan were nonetheless reported by both Artsakhi residents and officials until early October. On 28 September, the president of Artsakh, Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree to dissolve all state institutions by 1 January 2024, bringing the existence of the breakaway state to an end.
The offensive and subsequent surrender resulted in a flight of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, in which nearly the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh fled the region for neighboring countries, primarily Armenia. Human rights organizations and experts in genocide prevention issued multiple alerts that the region's Armenian population was at risk or actively being subjected to ethnic cleansing and genocide, as well as war crimes and crimes against humanity. Luis Moreno Ocampo, the inaugural prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, has classified the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians as a second Armenian genocide, and opined that the inaction of the international community encouraged Azerbaijan to act with impunity.
Background.
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All the above efforts have only one goal: ensure irreversible normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan for the benefit of all populations on the ground. It is now time for courageous compromise solutions, also in light of today's escalation.
 —Spokesperson of Charles Michel, President of the European Council, on 1 September 2023. 
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until the offensive. The Nagorno-Karabakh region was once entirely claimed by, and partially "de facto" controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh, but is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan.
The conflict escalated in 1988, when the Karabakh Armenians demanded the transfer of the region from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia, triggering the First Nagorno-Karabakh War that ended in 1994 with Azerbaijan losing control of about 13.6% of its territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh, to Karabakh Armenians and the army of the Republic of Armenia. In 1993, the United Nations Security Council adopted four resolutions that supported the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and demanded the immediate withdrawal of the occupying Armenian forces from Azerbaijan, which was reaffirmed by the 2008 United Nations General Assembly Resolution 62/243.
In late 2020, the large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on 10 November, resulting in Armenia and Artsakh ceding the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh as well as one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself to Azerbaijan Ceasefire violations in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian–Azerbaijani border occurred following the 2020 war, leading to several casualties.
Subsequent to the 2020 war, Azerbaijan rescinded its offer of granting special status and autonomy to its ethnic Armenian residents and insisted on their "integration" into Azerbaijan. Some international mediators and human rights organizations have advocated for self-determination for the local Armenian population and do not believe that Artsakh Armenians can live safely under Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, whose leadership has been described as dynastic and authoritarian.
Prelude.
In December 2022, Azerbaijan began blockading the Republic of Artsakh from the outside world, in violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement and international legal rulings. The Azerbaijiani government seized territory around the Lachin corridor both within Artsakh and Armenia, blocked alternative bypass routes, and installed a military checkpoint. Azerbaijan also sabotaged critical civilian infrastructure of Artsakh, including gas, electricity, and internet access.
The blockade created a humanitarian crisis for the population of Artsakh. Imports of essential goods, including humanitarian convoys of the Red Cross and the Russian peacekeepers were blocked. 120,000 residents of the region were trapped. There were widespread shortages of essential goods, including electricity, fuel, and water reserves, and emergency reserves were rationed, alongside massive unemployment, and closures of schools and public transportation.
Azerbaijan claimed its actions were aimed at preventing the transportation of weapons and natural resources. It also said its goal was for Artsakh to "integrate" into Azerbaijan, despite opposition from the population, and threatened military action if the Artsakh government did not disband. The spokesperson for Charles Michel, President of the European Council called for the "irreversible normalization" of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and "courageous compromise solutions".
Numerous countries, international organizations, and human rights observers condemned Azerbaijan's blockade and considered it to be a form of hybrid warfare, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. Multiple international observers also considered the blockade and the inaction of the Russian peacekeepers to be violations of the tripartite 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, which ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and guaranteed safe passage for Armenia through the Lachin corridor. Azerbaijan and Russia ignored calls from various countries and international organizations to restore freedom of movement to Armenia through the corridor.
Two weeks before the clashes, the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention issued a report stating that there was "alarming evidence that President [Ilham] Aliyev may be planning a military assault on Artsakh in the very near future." The report noted that Aliyev had recently signed a new decree ordering all eligible citizens 18 years of age or older to report for military service between 1 and 31 October 2023. The Lemkin Institute also warned that a "military assault on Artsakh could lead to the mass murder stage of genocide. It would almost assuredly result in the forced displacement of Armenians from Artsakh and the widespread commission of genocidal atrocities...[and]...Artsakh's Armenians would lose their distinct identity as Artsakhsis, an identity that has been forged through centuries—millennia—of independent cultural flourishing in their mountains and valleys."
Offensive.
19 September.
On 19 September 2023, in violation of the 2020 ceasefire, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale offensive against Republic of Artsakh. The Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense claimed to be undertaking "local anti-terrorist activities" and cited land mines allegedly planted by Armenians killing two Azerbaijani civilians and four police officers as a pretext for the offensive. The ministry demanded the disarmament and withdrawal of all ethnic Armenian soldiers, as well as the unconditional surrender and dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The statement from the ministry claimed that the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the joint Russian-Turkish Monitoring Centre were informed about the operation. Russia denied this claim, stating that its peacekeepers were only informed of the offensive a "few minutes" before it started.
Azerbaijan claimed that no civilian targets were attacked with weaponry, but witnesses reported strikes conducted in close proximity to large cities and densely populated areas. The attacks occurred in the midst of Azerbaijan's ongoing blockade of the region. Azerbaijan said that it had set up "humanitarian corridors and reception points on the Lachin road and in other directions" which would "ensure the evacuation of the population from the dangerous area". These announcements were disseminated through text messages, leaflets, and social media, triggering fears of ethnic cleansing amongst the residents. Artsakhi authorities warned its residents that "the Azerbaijani propaganda machine uses large-scale information and psychological influence measures." The Cyber Security Service of Azerbaijan temporarily restricted access to TikTok in Azerbaijan.
Late in the afternoon, Nagorno-Karabakh's leadership offered to negotiate with Azerbaijan after it launched its military offensive and called on Azerbaijan to "immediately cease the hostilities and sit down at the negotiation table with the aim of settling the situation". The Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan responded that it was ready to meet with representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh. It stressed at the same time that the Azerbaijani offensive would continue unless Artsakh disband its government bodies and armed forces. The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry later stated that its forces had captured more than 60 military posts and destroyed up to 20 military vehicles. The Armenian daily "Azg" reported claims that Azerbaijan had captured the villages of Charektar and Getavan. The Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan claimed that Armenian forces attacked Shusha with large-caliber weapons, killing one civilian.
Artsakh authorities stated that the state's de facto capital, Stepanakert, and other cities were being heavily shelled, accusing Azerbaijan of attempted ethnic cleansing. Artsakh's human rights ombudsman Gegham Stepanyan said two civilians, including a child, were killed, while 11 others were injured, eight of whom were children. By the end of the day, Artsakh reported that 27 people had been killed and more than 200 were injured.
Artsakh authorities reported that they had evacuated over 7,000 people from 16 rural settlements, while Russian peacekeepers evacuated 5,000 others. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Russian food and medicine arrived in Artsakh via the Lachin and Agdam routes.
20 September.
Armenian sources reported that Aznavur Saghyan, the mayor of Martuni, was killed by an Azerbaijani sniper. It was also reported that the Amaras Monastery near Sos had fallen under Azerbaijani control. "Azg" reported that Azerbaijani forces had captured the settlements of Drmbon and Harav; later that day, Chankatagh, Chapar, Karmir Shuka, Khachmach, Machkalashen, Sarushen, Shosh and Vaghuhas were also reported to have been captured. Furthermore, the Armenian daily "Aravot" reported that the Kashen mine, one of the biggest sources of tax revenue for the Artsakhi government, had fallen under Azerbaijani control. Artsakhi president Samvel Shahramanyan said "Nagorno-Karabakh will have to take relevant steps to ensure physical security of population".
Artsakhi authorities agreed to a proposal by Russian peacekeeping forces to establish a ceasefire from 13:00 on 20 September. Under the terms of the agreement, the government of the Republic of Artsakh agreed to disarm and to enter into talks with the government of Azerbaijan regarding the reintegration of the territory. Among the Azerbaijani demands was a requirement for Artsakh and Armenia to surrender a list of individuals to Azerbaijan for prosecution and trial, including former and current Artsakhi civilian and military leaders. Large masses of Armenian civilians began fleeing Artsakh after the ceasefire announcement, with many of them gathering at Stepanakert Airport. Later, Nikol Pashinyan commented on this that "it is obvious to me that this is being done to cause internal political upheavals and chaos". The Armenian government said it was not involved in the drafting of the ceasefire agreement, while Azerbaijani presidential envoy Elchin Amirbeyov said that Russian peacekeepers helped facilitate the ceasefire.
Colonel Anar Eyvazov, Spokesperson for the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, announced that during the operation, Azerbaijan had captured 90 combat positions. He also said that Azerbaijani forces had captured seven combat vehicles, one tank, four mortars and two infantry fighting vehicles from Armenian military units as trophies.
Shelling of Stepanakert continued until the city's electrical grid was knocked out several hours after the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect. According to a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, several peacekeepers were killed near the village of Chankatagh in Tartar District after their vehicle was attacked while they were returning from an observation post. Azerbaijani official Elin Suleymanov admitted that Azeri forces had killed the peacekeepers, calling it an accident, expressed condolences to Russia, and vowed to launch a probe into what happened. Among those killed was Captain First Rank Ivan Kovgan, the deputy commander of Russia's Northern Fleet submarine forces, and a concurrent deputy commander of the peacekeeping force. With Azerbaijani cooperation, Russian peacekeepers detained suspects, and an Azerbaijani commander was suspended. President Ilham Aliyev subsequently apologized over phone to Russian President Vladimir Putin for the incident. According to the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan, a group of military personnel of the Azerbaijan army opened fire on a car with Russian peacekeepers, mistaken believing they were Armenian forces due to the difficult terrain and foggy-rainy weather conditions. As a result,