Taliban capture of the capital of Afghanistan
On 15 August 2021, Afghanistan's capital city of Kabul was captured by the Taliban after a major insurgent offensive that began in May 2021. It was the final action of the War in Afghanistan, and marked a total victory for the Taliban. This led to the overthrowing of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan under President Ashraf Ghani and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban.
The United States–Taliban deal, signed on 29 February 2020, is considered one of the most critical factors that caused the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Following the deal, the US dramatically reduced the number of air attacks and deprived the ANSF of a critical edge in fighting the Taliban insurgency.
Months before the fall, many in the United States Intelligence Community estimated that Kabul would be taken at least six months after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan was completed. However, beginning in May 2021, even while the withdrawal was occurring, the Taliban was able to take most of Afghanistan's provinces in rapid succession during a major offensive. During this period, estimates for the longevity of the Afghan state declined significantly. Ultimately, US president Joe Biden conceded on 16 August that the collapse "unfold[ed] more quickly than [they] had anticipated".
Between 14 and 30 August 2021, the US and its coalition partners evacuated more than 123,000 people from Afghanistan via airlifts from Kabul International Airport (known then as Hamid Karzai International Airport). During the evacuation, the airport remained under NATO and US military control despite the collapse of the central government. Evacuees included foreign diplomatic staff and military personnel, third-country civilians, Afghan allies and vulnerable Afghans such as journalists and human rights activists. The airlift was the largest non-combatant evacuation operation in US military history, with US military personnel transferring 79,000 civilians through the airport and out of Afghanistan over the 18-day mission.
After the United States' withdrawal on 30 August, a group of about 1,000 people, including US citizens and Afghans holding American visas, were still stranded in Kabul. Two weeks later, secretary of state Antony Blinken said it was several thousand US residents and one hundred US citizens.
Background.
US–Taliban deal.
The United States–Taliban deal, also known as the "Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan", was a peace agreement signed by the United States and the Taliban on 29 February 2020 in Doha, Qatar. The deal was meant to bring the war in Afghanistan to an end. Significantly, the deal did not involve the then Afghan government, which led some experts to compare it to the Munich Agreement of 1938.
The deal stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban, including the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for counter-terrorism commitments from the Taliban. The US agreed to an initial reduction of its force level from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days (i.e., by July 2020), followed by a full withdrawal within 14 months (i.e., by 1 May 2021) if the Taliban kept its commitments. The US also committed to closing five military bases within 135 days, and expressed its intent to end economic sanctions on the Taliban by 27 August 2020.
The deal had a significant impact on the Afghan National Security Forces. US support for the Afghan military was significantly reduced. And according to the terms of the deal, US military aircraft could not attack Taliban groups waiting more than 500 meters away, giving the Taliban an edge in targeting Afghan military units.
The deal also exacerbated the decline in morale of the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police, leading to members bargaining with the Taliban. The Taliban was also able to spread propaganda and disinformation about the agreement, due to a lack of information and secret annexes in the agreement that were unknown even to the then Afghan government. The Taliban propaganda aimed to convince local police and military units that the US had already handed over territories to the Taliban, and that they should abandon their positions too.
2021 Taliban offensive.
Weeks before the offensive, in April 2021, the US State Department urged American civilians in Afghanistan to "leave as soon as possible on available commercial flights".
On 1 May 2021, the Taliban and allied militant groups began a widespread offensive shortly after a significant portion of US troops withdrew from Afghanistan.
Following its rapid defeat across the country, the Afghan National Army was left in chaos, with only two units remaining operational by mid-August: the 201st Corps and 111th Division, both based in Kabul. The capital city was left encircled after Taliban forces had captured several significant cities, including Mihtarlam, Sharana, Gardez, Asadabad, as well as other districts in the east.
Projections for the longevity of the Afghan state declined significantly during the offensive. In July 2021, the US intelligence community concluded that the government of Afghanistan would collapse between six and 12 months after the departure of American troops. An early August assessment estimated that Kabul could hold out for several months. Just five days before the Taliban reached Kabul, another estimate suggested the capital would last "30 to 90 days". Finally, two days before the collapse, an estimate suggested the city would fall within the week.
The day before the fall, Afghanistan Policy Lab director Timor Sharan told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that "shopping in the city today, I felt people were gripped by a sense of being stuck; stuck in an uncertain future and never able to dream, aspire, think, and believe anymore".
Capture of Kabul.
Collapse of the Afghan government.
On 15 August 2021, the Taliban command instructed its forces to halt their advance at the gates of Kabul, declaring that they would not seize the city by force. Muhammad Nasir Haqqani, a Taliban commander, said that when he arrived at the city's gates, he did not find a single soldier or policemen in sight.
Locals reported that Taliban fighters were advancing into the urban areas regardless of their official orders.
The insurgents then captured the Pul-e-Charkhi prison and released all inmates, reportedly including Islamic State – Khorasan Province and Al-Qaeda militants. During the skirmishes, the Taliban were reported to have killed around 150 IS-K militants, including the former chief Mawlawi Zia ul-Haq (also known as Abu Omar Khorasani). Bagram Airfield and the Parwan Detention Facility, which held 5,000 prisoners, also fell to the Taliban.
When they finally entered Kabul, Taliban fighters faced little to no resistance from the Afghan National Security Forces. The fighters began raising their flag throughout the city and pressuring police to hand over their weaponry.
During the fall, at least 22 Afghan Air Force planes and 24 helicopters carrying 585 Afghan military personnel fled to Uzbekistan. One Afghan A-29 Super Tucano crashed after crossing the border, with Uzbek authorities issuing conflicting reports on the cause. Two Afghan military planes carrying over 100 soldiers also landed in the Tajikistan city of Bokhtar.
The Afghan Interior Ministry announced that President Ashraf Ghani would relinquish power and an interim government led by the Taliban would be formed. Afterward, fighting died down, although many civilians remained fearful and holed up in their homes. By late morning on 15 August, Taliban negotiators arrived at the presidential palace to begin a transfer of power. Although negotiations were tense, the government declared its willingness to peacefully surrender Kabul to the rebels, and urged civilians to remain calm. Al Arabiya reported that a transitional government would be formed under the leadership of former minister Ali Jalali, but this was later denied by the Taliban.
Flight of President Ghani.
After President Ashraf Ghani's address to the nation about the situation in Kabul on midday, Hamdullah Mohib spoke to Khalil Haqqani, a leader of the Taliban's Haqqani network, who asked him to surrender and suggested a meeting. Mohib called Tom West, Khalilzad's deputy in Doha, to tell him about the conversation with Haqqani. West advised him that the suggestion to meet might be an attempt to lure Mohib into a trap. After that, Mohib was telling President Ghani: "It's time, Mr. President. We have to leave." Later that day, President Ghani and members of his family and inner circle quietly fled from Afghanistan. Their own top lieutenants, important government members, and US officials were not informed they would escape until after they had already left. When told about Ashraf Ghani fled Kabul, President Biden exploded in frustration and later said "Give Me a Break".
At 11:00 p.m. local time, Ghani eventually publicly announced on Facebook that he had fled in an attempt to avoid a bloody battle and that "the Taliban [had] won with the judgment of their swords and guns". In another account, he defended his actions: "Two different factions of the Taliban were closing in from two different directions ... and the possibility of a massive conflict between them that would destroy the city of five million and bring havoc to the people was enormous."
Ghani alleged that he did not initially plan to leave the country or even the city. He claims he first planned to take a car to the Ministry of Defense headquarters within Kabul, but the car never arrived. Instead, his national security advisor and chief of presidential security pressured him to escape the city by plane and fly to Khost, still within the country. However, once they were in the air, it was clear that "Khost had fallen and so had Jalalabad." Only then, Ghani alleges, did he realize he was going to leave Afghanistan.
Kabul's presidential palace, the Arg, was evacuated by helicopters. Meanwhile, Taliban co-founder Abdul Ghani Baradar arrived at the Hamid Karzai International Airport to prepare the takeover of government. At 8:55 p.m. local time, the Taliban claimed to have taken over the Arg, which was left vacated by President Ghani earlier that day. Allegedly, all other palace employees were ordered to leave after Ghani had left. Reporters from Al Jazeera were later allowed into the Arg to interview Taliban militiamen. At approximately 9:12 p.m. local time, it was reported that the Taliban would soon declare the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from the Arg, returning to the official symbolism of the Taliban government of 1996 to 2001.
Following the collapse of the central government, a handful of Afghan politicians, including the Speaker of the House of the People Mir Rahman Rahmani, fled the country and traveled to Pakistan. Defense Minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, Second Vice-President Sarwar Danish and Director General of the National Directorate of Security Ahmad Zia Saraj also left Afghanistan.
Impact on civilians.
The Taliban's advances alarmed many Kabul residents. Some locals, especially women, were fearful for the restoration of Taliban rule and reported feeling betrayed and abandoned by the Ghani government and NATO allies; a minority of residents celebrated the Taliban advance.
It was reported that sales of burqas (known as "chadaree" in Afghanistan) climbed in the days leading to the Taliban's arrival, with the price of one increasing from to as much as (approximately 0 to $37.25), in fear that the Taliban would re-impose it as mandatory on women and target women who refused. One Kabul woman told "The Guardian" that female students had been evacuated from their university dormitories before the Taliban could reach them, and that university-educated women across the city were hiding their diplomas. Khalida Popal, former captain of the Afghanistan women's national football team, advised the women's national team players to burn their uniforms to avoid reprisals. Shops in the city were noted to have begun painting over and removing advertisements featuring women, and public posters featuring women were vandalized. Residents reported a large increase in food prices. It was reported that a significant number of vendors in Kabul were attempting to liquidate their stocks in hopes of raising enough money to escape the country.
Concerns were quickly raised about the thousands of refugees who had fled Taliban advances elsewhere in the country and now found themselves stuck in Kabul. In the evening, the National Museum of Afghanistan posted a statement on Facebook stating "huge concern about safety of Museum's Artifacts and goods for Museum Employees". World Health Organization mobile health teams in the city were placed on hold because of safety concerns, and the delivery of medical supplies via the airport was significantly impacted.
The Taliban has countered accusations of discrimination against women as "propaganda".
Kabul Airport evacuations.
Since the Taliban had seized all border crossings, the Hamid Karzai International Airport remained the only