The 2024 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 12 May 2024, to elect the 15th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.
The coalition government formed by Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) had broken up in October 2022, with president Pere Aragonès having to rely in the support of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) and In Common We Can (ECP) for stability. After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget in Parliament on 13 March 2024, as a result of differences with ECP over the Hard Rock mega resort, Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.
Salvador Illa's PSC secured a commanding victory in both votes and seats in a Catalan regional election for the first time in history, whereas support for Catalan nationalist parties in general—and for ERC and the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) in particular—collapsed, bringing their combined totals well below the absolute majority threshold for the first time since 1980. The conservative People's Party (PP) surged from three to 15 seats, benefiting from the wipeout of Citizens (Cs), whereas the far-right, pro-independence Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat) party of Sílvia Orriols was able to secure parliamentary representation thanks to strong support in traditionally pro-independence strongholds. Illa was elected as new president on 8 August 2024 with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and amidst a failed attempt by Puigdemont to thwart his investiture by returning to Barcelona while evading Spanish and Catalan police forces.
The election outcome and Illa's election were widely seen as signaling the end of the Catalan independence process starting in 2012 and seeing at its height a major constitutional crisis in Spain and its subsequent trials. The conciliation policies carried out by the Spanish government of Pedro Sánchez, as well as the controversial amnesty law that was agreed for in the 2023 Spanish government formation process, were said to be among the factors that influenced the loss of the pro-independence majority.
Overview.
Electoral system.
The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.
The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.
Election date.
The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 14 February 2021, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 February 2025. The election was required to be called no later than 30 January 2025, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 31 March 2025.
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.
After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget on 13 March 2024, president Pere Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May. The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 19 March 2024 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).
Parliamentary composition.
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.
Parties and candidates.
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
Ahead of the election, it was revealed that the People's Party (PP) and Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) were negotiating an electoral alliance that could be extended to the European Parliament election in June as well, but talks broke down on 22 March—causing the resignation of Adrián Vázquez as secretary-general of CS—after the regional branch of CS in Catalonia rejected its dissolution. The PP was also concerned on whether to keep Alejandro Fernández as the party's candidate or to replace him by another figure, such as former Health minister Dolors Montserrat. On 26 March, the PP confirmed Fernández as the party's candidate and Montserrat as campaign manager.
On 21 March, Together for Catalonia (Junts) leader Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium to avoid charges brought by Spanish authorities following the unrecognized referendum on Catalan independence from Spain in 2017, held a rally in Elne, France, near the Spanish border, saying that he would stand for office in the Parliament of Catalonia and seek to become regional president, which he had previously held prior to his exile. On 26 March, Puigdemont announced the "Vernet Accord", an electoral alliance between Junts and several minor pro-independence parties: his former allies of Action for the Republic (AxR), The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV), Independence Rally (RI.cat), Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement of Catalonia (MESCat), and new ones such as Catalan State (EC) and Republican Youth of Lleida (JRL). The next day, it was revealed that Puigdemont would run under the "Together+Puigdemont for Catalonia" (Cat–Junts+) platform. Later, EV–AV announced that their party had not signed nor negotiated the alliance and were not a part of Junts since 2020. Puigdemont pledged to return to Spain for the election of the Catalan presidency, by which time he expects to avail of a proposed amnesty on Catalan separatists raised by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Puigdemont also pledged to retire from politics if he loses the election.
On 25 March, Catalan Alliance, a far-right party that led the local governments in the municipalities of Ripoll and Ribera d'Ondara, announced that they would be contesting the election with their leader, Sílvia Orriols, as their main candidate.
On 27 March, Podemos announced that they would not contest the election. The party had contested previous elections within the En Comú Podem alliance, alongside Catalonia in Common (CatComú). In a statement, the party stated that they did not wish to contribute to the fragmentation of the left-wing vote, as it had intended to contest the election on its own if an agreement could not be reached with their previous election partners, while blaming Catalunya en Comú for making an agreement "impossible". The relationship of Podemos with other Spanish left-wing parties had been deteriorating since it broke with the Sumar coalition and joined the Mixed Group in the Spanish Congress of Deputies. Following Podemos' withdrawal, CatComú and Sumar announced a joint list for the election under the name Comuns Sumar, with Jéssica Albiach as their main candidate.
On 8 May, PSC, ERC, Junts, Comuns Sumar and CUP announced an "Acord antifeixista" (English: "Anti-fascist Accord"), an agreement that those parties would not enter into any coalition with Catalan Alliance or Vox.
Timetable.
The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):
Opinion polls.
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.
Voting preferences.
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
Victory preferences.
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Victory likelihood.
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Preferred President.
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.
Voter turnout.
The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).
Aftermath.
Following the release of the election results, Salvador Illa said that "Catalonia has decided to open a new era". He was also congratulated by Pedro Sánchez for the "historic result". Carles Puigdemont observed that his party was the "only pro-independence force to increase in votes and seats" but acknowledged the offset suffered by other separatist parties. He also ruled out joining a coalition that included the PSC and suggested that Junts would try and restore their previous coalition with ERC. On 13 May, Pere Aragonès announced his retirement from politics and ruled out ERC joining a coalition with Junts or the PSC, while the latter said that it was seeking to form a coalition with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and ruled out a Puigdemont-led government.
On 29 July, ERC announced that it had reached an agreement to elect Illa as new regional president in exchange for executive powers to the Catalan government for collecting, managing and inspecting taxes. The agreement was validated by ERC's membership by 53% in favour to 44% against, as well as by the Republican Youth of Catalonia (JERC). On 31 July, the Comuns also reached an agreement with the PSC to support Illa's investiture, thus ensuring enough votes for an election in the first round of voting.
References.
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