Elections in England and Wales
The 2024 United Kingdom local elections took place on 2 May 2024 to choose 2,658 councillors on 107 councils in England, 11 directly elected mayors in England, the 25 members of the London Assembly, and 37 police and crime commissioners in England and Wales. The 2024 Blackpool South parliamentary by-election was held on the same day. These local elections were the last set of routine elections before the general election.
This election cycle returned to its usual four-year cycle after the majority of these elections were last held in the 2021 local elections, having been delayed by a year from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results were a strong showing for the Labour Party, who finished first at the expense of the governing Conservative Party, who finished third and suffered their worst local election defeat since 1996, losing over 500 council seats. The Liberal Democrats finished second for the first time in a local election cycle since 2009.
Background.
Significance of these elections.
When local elections were held in 2021 the Conservative Party made gains, mainly at the expense of the Labour Party. Since then, the Conservative Party has had several high-profile political scandals and crises and has seen a decrease in their popularity in opinion polling. This was reflected in the poor results for the Conservative Party at both the 2022 and 2023 local elections. As a result of the 2023 local elections, Labour became the party with most members elected to local government for the first time since 2002.
These are to be the second set of local elections held under the Elections Act 2022, a controversial voter identification law that requires voters to show photo ID when attending a polling station. This act also means that the mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections will use a first-past-the-post voting system rather than the previously used supplementary vote system.
These local elections were the last set of routine elections before the general election. For this reason, the results were speculated by the media to influence both the date the general election would be scheduled for and the election strategies for each party.
Some Conservatives suggested framing the London Mayoral election as a de facto referendum on the ULEZ, which could impact parties' attitudes towards environmental policy.
In late 2023, Labour suggested persistently high interest rates were going to cause a surge in mortgage costs affecting 630,000 homeowners who would re-mortgage between then and the local elections in May. They described the situation as a "financial time-bomb" and implied this would influence the electorate in the elections.
Lord Hayward suggested that community activists and smaller parties may drain support away from the three main parties due to the directions of those parties and because the Liberal Democrats "are no longer the obvious choice for voters disillusioned with the two main parties".
As the elections neared, there were suggestions that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's leadership would be challenged if the results went poorly for his party, particularly if the Conservatives lost either the West Midlands or Tees Valley mayoralties. Sunak quickly sought to insist to his own MPs that he would still be the Prime Minister after these elections, even if the results were poor for his party.
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden insisted that this year's elections would be safe from cyberattacks whilst discussing Chinese state-linked hacking.
Predictions.
In March 2024, "The Observer" reported that the Conservative Party was expected to lose half its seats at this election, explaining that most of these seats were won at the peak of the "vaccine bounce". Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden also cited the "vaccine bounce" as a reason to expect these elections to be "much tougher" for his party than the last time they were contested.
Also in March 2024, Lewis Baston, a political analyst and author, posted that his analysis showed the Conservative Party was due to lose over 50% of their seats which are not changing boundaries. He found that of 613 seats being defended, they would lose 328 based on the swing seen in the 2023 local elections, but would gain eight elsewhere. However, after more work, by 1 April 2024 he said he thought the Conservatives wouldn't lose half their seats because one third of the seats up for election were not last fought in the 2021 local elections, but were actually fought in tougher elections in 2019, 2022, and 2023.
Analysts Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings also said the Conservative Party was expected to lose half its seats at this election if a similar result to 2023 was repeated. They said the Conservatives would lose around 500 seats while Labour would gain around 300 and the Liberal Democrats and Green Party would both make gains.
Sky News' Sam Coates quoted Michael Thrasher's prediction that the Conservatives would lose around 500 seats while Labour would gain around 350, but added that they consider Gloucester Council likely to switch directly from Conservative to Liberal Democrat-controlled.
YouGov conducted an MRP poll on 14–29 April 2024. They said their key findings were that they "expected Labour to make significant gains across the country, but that stories will emerge from specific local authorities which could leave every party with pleasing news". They predicted Labour to gain control of Hyndburn and Milton Keynes councils from no overall control, and to make significant gains in North East Lincolnshire, Peterborough, Thurrock, and Walsall. The Conservatives were expected to make gains in Reigate and Banstead.
Campaign.
Both Labour and the Conservatives were defending just under 1,000 seats each, the Liberal Democrats about 400 and the Greens just over 100.
Liberal Democrats.
On 20 March 2024, the Liberal Democrats launched their local election campaign in Harpenden, Hertfordshire where Ed Davey turned a giant hourglass which revealed the words "Time's running out Rishi!". Davey said he was confident of toppling the "Tory Blue Wall in Surrey".
Conservative.
On 22 March 2024, Rishi Sunak launched the Conservative's local election campaign by appearing at a bus depot in Heanor, Derbyshire, alongside East Midlands mayoral candidate Ben Bradley. Due to "human error" 13 of the 35 Conservative candidates were invalidly nominated for Castle Point Borough Council seats, meaning they would not appear on the ballot.
Labour.
On 28 March 2024, Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner launched Labour's campaign for the local elections at an event in Dudley. Starmer's speech mentioned the levelling-up policy of the government in the Black Country.
Green.
The Green Party of England and Wales officially launched its national campaign at an event in Bristol on 4 April 2024. Co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay gave speeches at the event with a focus on affordable housing.
Results analysis.
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By party.
The Conservatives suffered the worst defeat at a local election by a government since 1996, losing over 450 seats. The Conservatives only retained control of 6 out of the 107 councils; Broxbourne, Solihull, Walsall, Epping Forest, Fareham and Harlow. Their only mayoral success was the re-election of Ben Houchen as Tees Valley Mayor.
Labour won the newly created mayoralties of East Midlands Combined County Authority and the York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority. Labour's Richard Parker gained the West Midlands Combined Authority from Andy Street.
BBC analysis of the 2024 United Kingdom local election results said that Labour vote share had fallen 21 percentage points in council wards where more than 20% of residents are Muslim and analysis by Number Cruncher Politics found that Labour lost 33 percentage points in majority-Muslim areas.
The Liberal Democrats gained Tunbridge Wells council and Dorset Council, resulting in the party finishing in second place ahead of the governing Conservative Party. They have added more council seats than any other party over the last parliament, gaining more than 750 in the last five years, largely in southern England.
The Greens had their best ever local election result. However, they were unable to win a majority in Bristol City council, missing a majority of seats by two, while staying the largest party in the council.
The Workers Party of Britain won four seats: two in Rochdale, one in Manchester, and one in Calderdale.
Reform UK underperformed nationally but did win two seats on Havant Borough Council.
The Women's Equality Party won a seat on Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council, their first ever borough seat in the UK in their nine-year history.
The Social Democratic Party won their third seat on the Leeds City Council in the Middleton Park ward, defeating the sitting Labour councillor.
Post-election vacancies.
A number of seats remained vacant following the elections resulting in a number of post election vacancies:
England.
Metropolitan boroughs.
There are thirty-six metropolitan boroughs, which are single-tier local authorities. Thirty of them elect a third of their councillors every year for three years, with no election in each fourth year. These councils hold their elections on the same timetable, which includes elections in 2024. Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council has held its elections on a four-year cycle from 2016, so is also due to hold an election in 2024.
Due to boundary changes, some other councils which generally elect their councillors in thirds will elect all of their councillors in 2024.
Elections for one third of councillors.
By-elections or uncontested wards can cause the seats up for election to be above or below one third of the council.
Unitary authorities.
There are sixty-two unitary authorities, which are single-tier local authorities. Fifteen of them elect a third of their councillors every year for three years, with no election in each fourth year. These councils hold their elections on the same timetable, which includes elections in 2024. Two unitary authorities hold all-out elections on a four-year cycle that includes 2024, and the recently established Dorset Council held its first election in 2019, with its next election in 2024 and subsequent elections every four years from 2029.
District councils.
There are 164 district councils, which are the lower tier local authorities in a two-tier system, with county councils above them. Forty-eight elect their councillors in thirds and seven elect their councillors in halves. Three district councils elect all their councillors on a four-year cycle that includes 2024, with North Hertfordshire changing from the thirds system for the first time. Due to boundary changes, some other councils which usually elect their councillors in thirds or halves electeed all of their councillors in 2024.
Mayoral and council leader elections.
Mayor of London.
Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan was re-elected for a third four-year term, with 43.8% of the vote.
Combined authority mayors.
Nine combined authority mayors were be up for election. Labour won eight of the mayoral elections, including gaining the West Midlands mayoralty from the Conservatives. The Conservatives held Tees Valley.
Single-authority mayors.
One single-authority mayor was up for election.
Police and crime commissioner elections.
All police and crime commissioners (PCC; or police, fire, and crime commissioners) in England were up for election. Labour gained ten commissioner positions from the Conservatives.
Wales.
Police and crime commissioner elections.
All four police and crime commissioners in Wales were up for election, to represent the four police force areas of Dyfed-Powys, Gwent, North Wales and South Wales. All positions were held by the incumbent parties.
Notes.
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References.
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