[Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] [Tag] Several models were produced. The worst case scenario was for carrying on as normal. 
Have you thought of w better excuse for why <PERSON> said there would be less than 15 deaths yet? That is MORE inaccurate.