Only if state actors are perfectly rational, the simulations are (or at least are universally believed to be) a perfect model of reality, and there are no private simulations. And even then only kinda. (So, no.)
The outcome of a simulated war is binding only insofar as all potential belligerents recognize that the simulation provides an accurate projection of the outcome of a conflict. Even then, it's only the state leadership that will accept the simulation's projection, and only because we helped ourselves to this premise by hypothesis: the citizenry will not necessarily take it well that they either have to move or have a new government. Therefore, the violence of warfare would simply be transmuted to the violence of police action. Of course, if the power of the state is truly overwhelming or broad respect for the simulation is high enough (Divine Right of Kings 2.0), it could work out. (Even <PERSON> worked for Baron <PERSON> when he found himself a prisoner in Baron <PERSON>'s fiefdom.)
If the simulations are known to provide only the most likely outcome or a range of likely outcomes, states may still decide to press their sub-50% chances for victory in conflicts and warfare is not eradicated. 494
It's important to note, however, that only a belief in the simulation's infallibility is necessary. The simulation can be a coin flip and still do the job if sufficiently obfuscated-from and believed-in by all decision-makers. The story of the first leader to reject the simulations after X generations of peace would probably be fairly interesting.
Finally, all simulations would have to be observed in common by all state decision makers. Private simulations would become tools of war, not of peace. This message gets a negative response: "Hey <PERSON>, we ran a simulation that said the mineral wealth of Siberia is rightfully ours, fork it over." He wouldn't trust YOUR simulation. But you would, so you'd attack when he refused to cede the territory. So, the simulations have to be neutrally managed and shared in common by all in order to promote international peace. Maybe there'd be a priest-like class of simulation scientists. 159