What’s wrong with mainstream media’s interpretation of Taiwan’s referendum results? · Global Voices
The candidates in Taiwan usually need to go to the markets and talk to people on the streets to show that they really care about the need of their voters. We call it ‘street sweeping.’ Photo by <PERSON>, published with permission.
Taiwan finished its mid-term elections and multiple-referendums on November 24, 2018. Several western mainstream media outlets have interpreted the results as a victory for China and the comeback of conservatism; however, this type of analysis overlooks the political dynamics within Taiwan. This post attempts to clarify the picture by providing readers with more political context on the elections and referendum results.
There was an obvious setback for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as it has only retained 6 out of the 22 mayoral and county magistrate seats. President <PERSON> took responsibility for the election losses and stepped down as party chief on the same day.
The multiple-referendum voting consisted of 10 questions ranging from LGBTQ rights and same-sex marriage, the choice between “Taiwan” or “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events, the development of nuclear power, among others. Below shows the referendum results:
Screen capture from Wikipedia: 2018 Taiwan Referendum.
Is China the winner of Taiwan's elections?
Quite a number of mainstream media outlets saw China as the biggest winner in last year's Taiwanese elections as the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) party won a majority. The KMT opposition party is seen as the preferred political party by Chinese leaders because it has traditionally sought closer economic ties with China. <PERSON>, a professor in Lingnan University in Hong Kong, even wrote an opinion piece on CNN arguing that the election results were a setback for U.S foreign policy and suggested an adjustment of its China policy.
Figure 1. Data from the Central Election Commission.
Figure 2. 871
Data from the Central Election Commission. To compute the percentage, ‘yes’ and ‘no’ votes are divided by total valid votes.
The analysis has made a mistake by assuming that voter support for the KMT means support for China. Many people think that a better relationship with China, which would lead to resumed diplomatic contact that was suspended after <PERSON> took over the presidential office, would be good for Taiwan in the long run. In fact, some analysts, like sociologist <PERSON>, see the DPP's loss at the polls as the result of unpopular domestic policies like annuity reform more than any positive public sentiment for the cross-strait relationship.
The result of the Olympic referendum is a better reflection of public sentiment towards China.
Do you agree that Taiwan should apply to participate in all international sporting events and the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, using the name ‘Taiwan?’
For years, Taiwanese athletes have competed under the name “Chinese Taipei” because of pressure from China which claims the island as Chinese territory. In the November elections, a 55 percent majority voted to keep the name “Chinese Taipei” (Figure 2). The choice reflects a preference for the status quo for fear that the name change would jeopardize Taiwanese athletes’ right to participate in international games.
Although some media outlets see this loss as a victory for China, it is important to note the fact that, despite decades of threats from China, 45 percent of the voters still voted for a name change — a move which is taken as a declaration of Taiwan’s independence. Also worth considering is the fact that polls still show that many Taiwanese citizens favor Taiwan's independence.
Has anti-LGBTQ sentiment led to a U-turn on same-sex marriage?
It is true that the results of several referendums related to same-sex marriage disappointed LGBTQ rights advocates. However, the results can not be taken as an outright rejection of same-sex marriage — a mistake made by a number of mainstream media outlets such as CNN.
The right to same-sex marriage is guaranteed by Taiwan’s Constitutional Court, and no referendum can override such decision. The wording of the referendum on same-sex marriage is directed at the marriage regulation in the “Civil Code” :
Do you agree that marriage defined in the Civil Code should be restricted to the union between one man and one woman? (Majority 72.48 percent agree)
Do you agree to the protection of the rights of same-sex couples in co-habitation on a permanent basis in ways other than changing of the Civil Code? (Majority 61.12 percent agree)
Do you agree to the protection of same-sex marital rights with marriage as defined in the Civil Code? (Majority 67. 871