It would ignite an already incendiary part of the world, with the added risk of global economic collapse if the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth to one-third of the world’s oil passes, is blocked. On this view, if America is determined to use force to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state, it would have to establish a quasi-permanent empire in the Middle East.
对伊朗的军事介入可能会有两种结果。伊朗可能像美国轰炸利比亚时的利比亚那样，和平屈服，或者它会变成另一个伊拉克。我自己的直觉是这会引起无法控制的后果。它会点燃世界上本来就不稳定的地区的愤怒情绪，而且，如果输送世界石油的五分之一到三分之一的霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）被封锁，这也增加了全球经济崩溃的风险。从这一点上考虑，如果美国决定使用武力阻止伊朗成为一个拥有核武器的国家，它将不得不在中东建立一个似乎永久的帝国。