To make matters worse, the eurozone depends on oil imports even more than the United States does, and oil prices are rising, even as the political and policy environment is deteriorating. France may elect a president who opposes the fiscal compact and whose policies may scare the bond markets.
更坏的是，欧元区对原油进口的依赖比美国更甚，而原油价格在不断上涨，政治和政策环境却在不断恶化。法国可能诞生一位反对财政契约、采取令债券市场恐慌的政策的总统。希腊选举——那里的衰退正在向萧条迈进——可能会有40—50%的选票投给支持立刻违约并退出欧元区的政党。爱尔兰选民可能在公投中拒绝财政契约。西班牙和意大利也存在厌倦紧缩和改革的信号，反对痛苦紧缩的游行、罢工和群众抗议比比皆是。