Moreover, China’s fiscal position remains strong: even after accounting for all sorts of contingent liabilities – such as local-government loans, large project loans, and commercial banks’ non-performing loans in the event of a housing-market crash, China’s public debt/GDP ratio is still below 60%. Finally, the PBOC still has ample room to lower the reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate, which still stand at 20% and 6% (for one year loans), respectively, without much fear of stoking inflation.
期盼已久的经济反弹终于在2012年最后一个季度出现了。我个人就一直坚信经济反弹会出现。毕竟，中国的潜在增长率还在8%左右。此外，中国的财政状况仍然强劲：即使是承担了各种各样的不确定债务——比如地方政府的贷款、大型工程贷款以及商业银行在房地产市场崩溃中的不良贷款，中国的公共债务对GDP比率仍然在60%以下。最后，中国人民银行仍然有下调准备金比率和基准利率的充裕空间——这两个利率分别保持在20%和6%（针对一年期贷款），而不用担心引起通胀。