What makes monetary policy tricky at this point is that the German economy—which has been Europe’s locomotive during the current cyclical upturn—may be reaching a turning point. Surveys of business and investor confidence have softened—the respected IFO index of German business sentiment fell from 107.0 to 106.4 in Julyamp#45;amp#45;and the so-called “hard data”—industrial production, retail sales, etc.amp#45;amp#45;- has been mixed.
德国经济让货币政策在这一结骨眼上很为难。德国经济是当前欧洲经济周期上升的火车头，现在可能到达了一个转折点。企业和投资者信心调查变软，受人尊重的德国企业感觉IFO指数在七月从107.0下降到106.4。而所谓的“硬性数据”，即工业生产以及零售等等则好坏参半。德国第二季度GDP在第一季度令人惊讶地强劲以后放缓。