Indeed, economists failed to forecast most of the major crises in the last century, including the severe 1920-21 slump, the 1980-82 back-to-back recessions, and the worst of them all, the Great Depression after the 1929 stock-market crash. In searching news archives for the year before the start of these recessions, I found virtually no warning from economists of a severe crisis ahead.
诚然，经济学没有预见到上个世纪的大部分重大危机，包括1920—21年大崩盘、1980—82年背靠背衰退，以及最糟糕的1929年股市崩盘后的大萧条。检索这些衰退前一年中的新闻报道，我发现几乎不存在来自经济学家的事先严重危机警告。相反，报纸强调企业高管或政客的观点，而他们总是非常乐观。