When the US has confronted a “negative watershed” – a lethal threat to the country – it committed meaningful financial and human resources in order to address the risks. Positive watersheds – opportunities to engineer seismic shifts in international or regional political affairs through nation-building, or to use economic and military assistance to prevent plausible negative watersheds – demand an equal level of commitment.
我将这一战略称为“分水岭主义”。分水岭可以是触发点，可以是转折点，也可以是博弈局势变换器。当美国面临“消极分水岭”——即致命国家安全威胁——时，它应该动员财政和人力资源来消除风险。积极分水岭——即能对国际或地区政局产生地震偏移影响、走向建立新生国家的机会；或是可使用经济和军事援助以防止可信消极分水岭的机会——也要求同等的承诺。