Thus, the first danger to worry about for 2005 and beyond - when world interest rates will most likely rise - is another wave of emerging-market financial crises. For countries like Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Argentina, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, the record of the 1990's demonstrates that interest-rate spreads can widen and capital flows reverse remarkably rapidly, regardless of how favorably IMF officials and analyses by major banks view a country's policies.
因此，2005年及以后的首要危险是，如果世界利率真如预想中那样提高，就会再次引发新兴市场金融危机。20世纪90年代的记录表明，像墨西哥、巴西、土耳其、阿根廷、韩国、马来西亚和泰国这样的国家，无论国际货币基金组织和各大银行分析家对其政策持怎样的乐观态度，利率波动的幅度都可能突然加大，资本流向的逆转也可能非常迅猛。