If there is a sharp spike in interest rates – caused either by capital flight in anticipation of a dollar decline or by tight monetary policy in reaction to a dollar decline comes to pass – we will see how good the Federal Reserve really is. If interest rates rise too far, then the collapse in housing values will lead to large-scale foreclosures and a collapse in consumption spending as well.
如果出现了利率的急剧波动—不论是由于预见到美元贬值而发生的资本逃逸造成的，还是由于应对美元贬值所采取的紧缩的财政政策造成的—我们都有机会看到美联储究竟有多大的本领。如果利率过度提高，那么房产价值的崩溃将导致大规模的抵押赎取权丧失和消费支出的崩溃。