The second problem with emerging-economy forecasts was their failure to account for the vigor with which vested interests and other political forces would resist reform – a major oversight, given how uneven these countries’ reform efforts had been prior to 2008. The inevitable time lag between reforms and results has not helped matters.
新兴经济体预测的第二个问题是没有考虑既得利益和其他政治势力对改革的抵制力——这是重大疏漏，因为这些国家在2008年以前的改革措施是非常不平均的。改革和改革效果之间难免有时滞，而这一时滞对改革形势不利。