Given this, only a change in fundamentals – the US economy outperforms the consensus forecast and the Fed initiates monetary tightening earlier than anticipated, or other economies’ performance is even worse than expected – would cause the dollar to strengthen further. In short, with the market’s best guess already incorporated into the exchange rate, the dollar is as likely to fall as it is to rise.
因此，只有基本面的变化——美国经济表现比一致预测还要强、美联储开始货币紧缩比预计的还要早、其他经济体的表现比预期还要糟糕——能让美元进一步升值。简言之，市场的最佳猜测已经体现在汇率中，美元升值与贬值的可能性一样大。