The main risk in 2006 is that America’s long-brewing problems come to a head globally: investors, finally taking heed of the large structural fiscal deficit, the yawning trade gap, and the high level of household indebtedness, may pull money out of the US in a panic. Alternatively, rising interest rates and a downturn in the real estate market could so weaken consumer demand that the economy slips into recession, squeezing exporters in other countries that depend on the US market.
2006 年的主要风险是美国长期酝酿的问题在全球达到了顶峰：投资者在最终注意到巨额结构性财务赤字、巨大的贸易缺口、 高水平的家庭负债后，可能会在恐慌中将资金从美国抽出。另一种情况是：利率上涨、房地产市场衰落可能会严重减弱消费需求，使经济滑坡，直至萧条，给依赖于美国市场的其它国家的出口商造成巨大压力。