Syrian militants, including Islamic State fighters, have penetrated Lebanon, threatening to rekindle the country’s ethnic war and undermining Hezbollah’s legitimacy as the guarantor of its security. Assad’s fall would deny the organization its vital logistic hinterland in Syria, making it vulnerable to challenges by insurgent Sunni militias.
3000多名真主党战士已经死于叙利亚，另有4，000人受伤。包括伊斯兰国战斗人员在内的叙利亚武装分子已经渗透到黎巴嫩，威胁重燃该国民族战争的战火，并破坏作为安全保障的真主党合法性。阿萨德倒台会使该组织失去叙利亚腹地的重要后勤保障，使该组织更容易受到逊尼派反叛民兵的威胁。