After all, small enterprises rely on collateral-based lending, and the value of real estate – the main form of collateral – is still down one-third from its pre-crisis level. Moreover, given the magnitude of excess capacity in real estate, lower interest rates will do little to revive real-estate prices, much less inflate another consumption bubble.
但即使银行变得更加健康，贷款也不会有很大起色。毕竟，小企业依赖于抵押贷款，而房地产——最重要的抵押品——价格距离危机前水平仍有三分之一。此外，房地产业产能严重过剩，这意味着低利率并不能提振房地产价格，从而不能吹起新的消费泡沫。