Without fundamental changes in its economic-growth pattern, it is difficult to imagine how China can become an immature creditor-lender and a mature creditor-lender. A more likely scenario is that China will continue to have a trade surplus (though much smaller) and an investment-income deficit, mirrored by America’s trade deficit and investment-income surplus.
如果缺乏对经济发展模式的根本性改革，我们也难以想象中国如何才能成为一个不成熟债权国-出借国以及成熟债权国-出借国。更可能出现的状况是中国将继续出现贸易顺差（虽然规模更小）以及一个投资收入逆差，与美国的贸易逆差和投资收入顺差形成正反对应。如果两个国家都能拥有平衡的经常账户，它们的国际收支头寸就是可持续的。