The forecast errors have three potential sources: failure to recognize the time needed for economic recovery after a financial crisis; underestimation of the “fiscal multipliers” (the size of output loss owing to fiscal austerity); and neglect of the “world-trade multiplier” (the tendency for countries to drag each other down as their economies contract).
预测误差的潜在原因有三：对金融危机后经济复苏所需时间的误判；对“财政乘数”（因财政紧缩导致的产出损失）的低估；以及对“世界贸易乘数”（随着经济收缩各国互拖后腿的倾向）的忽视。