The dollar appreciated much faster than anyone expected; and, as data for the first quarter of 2015 suggest, the impact on net exports, inflation, and growth has been larger and more rapid than that implied by policymakers’ statistical models. Moreover, strong domestic demand has failed to materialize; consumption growth was weak in the first quarter, and capital spending and residential investment were even weaker.
但如今，情况已有所不同。美国官员的汇率神经过敏症正在日益显露。美元升值速度比所有人的预期都要快；而2015年一季度数据显示，美元升值对净出口、通货膨胀和增长的影响也比决策者的统计模型所表明的更大更快。此外，强劲的内需没有成为现实；一季度消费增长十分疲软，资本支出和住房投资更是萎靡不堪。