All of this implies lower growth rates for China – though perhaps not as low as the 6-7% rates that economists like Liu Shijing and Cai Fang are predicting for the next decade. In fact, relying on China’s past growth record to predict future performance is inherently problematic, owing not only to important shifts in the labor force, but also to the fact that the speed and scale of China’s pre-2008 growth was unprecedented.
所有这些都体现出中国更低的增长率——虽然可能不会像经济学家刘世锦，蔡方所预计的那样低到6~7%。事实上，依靠中国过去的增长记录去预测未来的经济表现显然是站不住脚的，不仅仅是因为劳动人口方面的重大转换，还必须认识到中国在2008年之前的发展速度和规模都是前所未有的。