NEW YORK – A year ago, I predicted that the losses of US financial institutions would reach at least $1 trillion and possibly go as high as $2 trillion. At that time, the consensus among economists and policymakers was that these estimates were exaggerated, because it was believed that sub-prime mortgage losses totaled only about $200 billion.
纽约&#45;&#45;一年前，我预计美国金融机构的亏损将会达到一万亿美元，甚至可能高达两万亿美元。当时，经济学家和决策者的共识是这些估计言过其实，因为人们相信次贷损失总共只有大约两千亿美元。