A recent McKinsey Global Institute study identifies five mutually reinforcing “game changers” that could have a significant effect on GDP growth, productivity, and employment in the US by 2020: shale energy, big-data analytics, exports in knowledge-intensive industries, infrastructure investment, and talent development. Two of these – shale energy and big-data analytics – build on ongoing technological breakthroughs in which the US has a strong lead and depend primarily on private-sector action, not macroeconomic or structural policies.
但是，一些常被忽视的理由表明，美国未来潜在增长前景乐观。最新的麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）研究提出了五大相互强化的“局面改变因素”，能极大地影响2020年的GDP增长、生产率和美国就业。它们是页岩能源、大数据分析学、知识密集型产业出口、基础设施投资和人才开发。其中的两者——页岩能源和大数据分析学——建立在不断的技术突破上，而技术突破主要取决于私人部门行为，而不是宏观经济和结构性政策，美国在这方面领先优势明显。