Inflation falls at last, but growth slows more than desired, owing to the overcapacity that resulted from excessive investment in the earlier phase of the cycle. At this point, policy becomes expansionary again, and the cycle begins anew: led by investment growth, the economy rebounds.
中国经济的表现因此保持了过去二十年来极为常见的循环模式:由经济扩张政策支撑的快速投资增长抬高了经济增长率。由此引发了通货膨胀，于是政策紧缩，导致经济增长放缓。但通货膨胀率依然居高不下，甚至仍在上涨，所以需要强制实施更多的紧缩政策。最终通货膨胀降了下来，但经济增长的减速程度超过了预期，这是经济周期早期的过度投资导致的产能过剩所引起的。此时政策又变成了扩张性的，而周期又重新开始了：在投资增长的牵引之下，经济再度实现反弹。