The Italians and Spaniards are right: the principal reason for the size of the spread between the periphery and Germany is convertibility risk. Investors are demanding a hefty premium to insure against the chance that Italy and Spain are ultimately forced out of the eurozone – thus bringing that day closer by weakening countries’ fiscal positions and raising their private-sector borrowing costs (which are set by government bond yields).
意大利和西班牙是对的：外围和德国利差如此大的主要原因是兑换风险。投资者要求的是巨额风险溢价，以确保抵消意大利和西班牙最终被迫脱离欧元区的风险，而这削弱了两国财政状况、提高了私人部门借贷成本（由国债收益率决定），从而将两国向脱离欧元区又推了一把。