Even small changes in fundamentals can have large effects on exchange rates, with up-front movements that far exceed what long-run adjustment requires. And the potential for volatility is particularly great if domestic corporations have large foreign-currency debts, which is true in all of the emerging economies under stress today.
但这要到冲击发生好几个月甚至多年后才会成为现实。在短期，汇率完全由金融条件决定。因此，汇率很容易超调。即使是微小的基本面变动也可能对汇率产生重大影响，导致远超长期调整需要的事先波动。而如果国内企业存在大量外币债务，潜在波动将非常巨大，所有如今陷入压力的新兴经济体莫不如此。