When left to the market, many firms and individuals try to innovate, so the overall probability of success can increase dramatically. The market allows the law of large numbers to work, whereas concentrated government support for a few favored firms undermines it.
事实上，中国的做法是在与概率对着干。成功的高技术创新属于随机事件，遵从大数定律。在市场经济中，大量公司和个人做着创新尝试，因此极大地提升了成功概率。市场机制可以让大数定律显灵，而政府集中支持少数企业与此南辕北辙。