An ex ante debt restructuring that reduces the size of any new loans and renders the debt sustainable before any reforms are implemented stands a good chance of crowding in investment, stabilizing incomes, and setting the stage for recovery. In sharp contrast, a debt write-down like Greece’s in 2012, which resulted from a program’s failure, only contributes to maintaining the downward spiral.
答案本应该显而易见。事先债务重组能降低在改革实施前让债务达到可持续水平所需要的新贷款规模，从而增加吸引投资、增加收入、为复苏打好基础的机会。与此形成鲜明对比的是，2012年希腊债务减记——作为计划失败的结果发生——只是让下降螺旋继续维持下去。