Experience suggests that China’s external position is highly sensitive to global conditions, with the surplus/GDP ratio rising during boom times for the world economy and falling during slumps. Europe’s malaise has hit China’s exports badly, and undoubtedly is the most important factor underlying the current decline in the ratio.
IMF对最近中国经常账户盈余与GDP比率下降的解读大体上是正确的。经验表明，中国的外部头寸极易受到全球经济状况的影响，中国的外部盈余对GDP比率在全球经济繁荣时期就会上升，在萧条时期则下跌。欧洲经历的危机严重打击了中国出口，而这无疑是最近比率下降背后的最重要原因。