But the key external factor in ensuring a peaceful succession will be the policies of South Korea and the US, which must decide whether they can work with the North in the post-Kim Jong-il era. Will they wait to see what happens to the new leader, and thus continue their policy of “strategic patience,” which focuses mainly on denuclearization, and not move on to other areas until the North moves first?
但韩美政策才是确保和平继承顺利实现的关键外部因素，这两国必须确定能否在后金正日时代与朝鲜合作。他们是否会继续奉行以无核化为主的“战略耐心”政策，让朝鲜率先在其他领域采取行动，静候新领袖出现结果？如若真是如此，即便拥有中国的支持，朝鲜仍将因为经济萎缩会影响其准合法领导地位而逐渐丧失稳定局面。