Sudden fiscal contraction would reduce domestic aggregate demand faster than the economy’s deleveraging and structural shifts could replace it, thereby killing off growth and hiring, with adverse feedback effects on budget deficits. But delaying the debt reckoning for too long would undermine confidence in the US government’s capacity for fiscal discipline.
这就让我们面临着奥巴马的预算方案。首先，存在多快减少政府赤字和公共债务积累的问题。突然的财政收缩拉低国内总需求的速度会快于经济去杠杆化和结构变化弥补需求损失的速度，造成预算赤字的负反馈效应。但将债务清算推迟过长时间会侵蚀人们对美国政府财政纪律执行力的信心。