The rebalancing of growth away from fixed investment and toward private consumption is occurring too slowly, because every time annual GDP growth slows toward 7%, the authorities panic and double down on another round of credit-fueled capital investment. This then leads to more bad assets and non-performing loans, more excessive investment in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity, and more public and private debt.
首先是中国的硬着陆风险。实现增长的再平衡从固定投资转向私人消费的进展太过缓慢，这是因为每当年GDP增长率向7%靠拢，当局都会慌忙采取新一轮信用推动的资本投资。而这会造成更多的坏账和不良贷款、房地产、基础设施和工业产能的过度投资以及更多的公私债务。明年或许已无空间施展旧伎俩。