First, with asset prices like housing fueled by global liquidity, goods prices kept quiescent by excess capacity and global trade, and interest rates held down by muted investment, domestic and external imbalances have been easily financed. The traditional signals provided by inflation expectations, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates have not started flashing.
我们有理由担心上诉必要的过渡能否顺利实现。首先，随着住房等资产价格在全球市场流动性的推动下上涨，商品价格因过剩的生产力和全球贸易而低迷不振，以及利率随着投资的萎缩而下降，很容易出现国内和对外收支不平衡的现象。而预期通胀、长期利率和汇率等传统信号还没有开始示警。