With a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce, tax revenue will contract, while expenditure on pensions and health care will expand, undermining the fiscal position. Various estimates by private-sector economists and World Bank officials suggest that the government’s accumulated “net implicit pension debt” could balloon to 75-110% of GDP.
中国的人口趋势对其经济会带来很多负面的影响。因为人口的急剧老化以及劳动力的减少，税收收入将会萎缩，而养老金和医疗费用的增长会严重破坏财政状况。由私营部门的经济学家和世界银行的官员所作出的种种预测表明政府累积得越来越高的“净隐性养老金债务”可能会膨胀到GDP的75-110%。