The US unemployment rate may seem to hint at the risk of rising inflation, but the employment-to-population ratio continues to signal an economy in deep distress. Indeed, wage patterns suggest that this ratio, not the unemployment rate, is the better indicator of slack in the economy – and nobody ten years ago would have interpreted today’s employment-to-population ratio as a justification for monetary tightening.
如今，美联储似乎马上又要开启紧缩周期了。这次紧缩正逢经济的微妙时刻。美国失业率也许暗示存在通胀抬头的风险，但就业-人口比仍表明经济举步维艰。事实上，工资形势表明，该比率，而非就业率，才是更好的经济松弛度指标——而在十年前，没有人会将今天的就业-人口比作为货币紧缩的依据。