The economy was still expanding in the late summer of 2007, when I spoke at the US Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference about serious risks to the economic outlook. I warned that house prices had begun to fall in the summer of 2006 from dangerously high levels, implying a future collapse of construction activity and large losses of household wealth.
2007年夏末，当我在美联储杰克逊霍尔年度会议上谈到经济前景的严重风险时，经济仍在扩张。我警告说，房价已经在2006年夏天从危险的高水平开始下跌，这意味着未来建筑业的崩溃和家庭财富的巨大损失。家庭财富减少将反过来导致消费支出下降，进一步遏制GDP增长。