Policy responses will have very limited effect in stemming the US economy’s deceleration toward stall speed: even with only a mild fiscal drag on growth, the US dollar is likely to strengthen as the eurozone crisis weakens the euro and as global risk aversion returns. The US Federal Reserve will carry out more quantitative easing this year, but it will be ineffective: long-term interest rates are already very low, and lowering them further would not boost spending.
政策应对措施对于防止美国经济滑向停滞效果极其有限：即使财政拖累对增长的影响很小，美元也可能因欧元区危机拖累欧元以及全球避险行为回潮而升值。美联储将在今年追加量化宽松，但这不会起效：长期利率已然很低，进一步压低它们不会提振支出。事实上，信用渠道已经冻结，货币流速极慢，银行纷纷以超额储备的形式囤积基础货币。此外，在其他国家也推出量化宽松的情况下，美元也不可能贬值。