The US faces two distinct fiscal challenges: the tax increases and spending cuts that threaten to derail the economy in 2013; and a long-term structural deficit that is likely to mean higher interest rates, less investment, and slower growth once the economy has recovered and the output gap has disappeared. Unlike the fiscal cliff, the structural deficit problem is not imminent: contrary to deficit hawks’ dire warnings, the US does not face a time-sensitive debt crisis.
首先是困惑。美国要面对两个独特财政挑战:一是有可能危及美国2013年经济的增税和开支削减；二是一个结构性的长期赤字很可能意味着更高的利率，更少的投资，以及一旦经济恢复增长及产出缺口消失就会减速的增长。不像财政悬崖，结构性的赤字问题并非迫在眉睫的问题：与赤字鹰派危言耸听的警告相反，美国面对的并不是一个相对紧迫的债务危机。