Third, if you plug an unemployment rate of 10% to 11% into any model of loan defaults, you get ugly figures not just for residential mortgages (both prime and subprime), but also for commercial real estate, credit cards, student loans, auto loans, etc. Thus, banks losses on their toxic assets and their capital needs will be much larger than recently estimated, which will worsen the credit crunch.
第三，如果把10%~11%的失业率延伸到其他信贷领域，将会得到同住房按揭（不论是优级按揭还是次级按揭）一样悲观的数字，比如商业地产、信用卡、教育贷款、购车贷款等等。银行的有毒资产损失和拨备资本金将大大超过目前估计的水平，从而导致更严重的信贷紧缩。