In a paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association published in July 2005, I showed that refutation is very common, even for the most prestigious research findings. I examined the 45 clinical research findings that had received the greatest recognition in the scientific world, as documented by the number of times other scientists had cited them over the last 15 years.
事实上，根据以往的经验我们可以认识到这种危险是非常大的。2005年7月我在《美国医学协会期刊》上发表了一篇文章，指出即便是看上去最受人尊敬的研究发现也会经常被人驳倒。这是我在研究了在科学界中受到最广泛认同的45个临床研究成果后得出的结论，它们在过去15年间被其他科学家引用的次数最多。