And it is failing today, leading the Fed consistently to overestimate underlying inflation. Indeed, with oil prices having plunged by 50% over the past year, the Fed stubbornly maintains that faster price growth – and the precious inflation rate of 2% – is just around the corner.
这一方针在20世纪70年代开始采用时就是一场彻头彻尾的失败，导致美联储低估了恶性通胀。今天，它也是一场失败，导致美联储持续高估基础通胀。事实上，去年油价暴跌50%，但美联储顽固地坚持认为物价上升加速——以及2%这一神奇通胀率——就在眼前。