The basic idea was to solicit thousands of predictions from hundreds of experts about the fates of dozens of countries, and then score the predictions for accuracy. We find that the media not only fail to weed out bad ideas, but that they often favor bad ideas, especially when the truth is too messy to be packaged neatly.
在《专家政治判断：到底有多准确？我们又怎么知道？》一书中，我详细说明了项目的具体状况。一个基本的想法是就几十个国家的命运向几百名专家征求数千条预测，然后打分确定预测的准确性。我们发现媒体不仅没有淘汰不正确的看法，反而经常对错误看法青眼有加，尤其当真相过于复杂，很难说清时更是如此。