Indeed, I expect that while the rate of US contraction will slow from -6% in the last two quarters, US growth will still be negative (around -1.5 to -2%) in the second half of the year (compared to the bullish consensus of +2%). Moreover, growth next year will be so weak (0.5 to 1%, as opposed to the consensus of 2% or more) and unemployment so high (above 10%) that it will still feel like a recession.
我认为，这种一致的乐观情绪并没有事实的支撑。实际上，我预计尽管美国经济收缩的速度将比过去两个季度的-6%有所放缓，但今年下半年的美国经济增长（较之+2%的乐观估计）仍将维持在负数（约为-1.5到-2%）。此外，明年的经济增长仍将微弱（较之2%或者更高的普遍观点）、而失业率仍将高企（约为10%），以致于让我们感到仍然处在衰退之中。