Lin argues that China can achieve 8% annual growth for another two decades, owing to its enduring “latecomer advantage,” which, among other things, entails rapid productivity gains brought about by technological catch-up with the United States. But this fails to account for the standard growth theory of “conditional convergence”: only economies with comparable structural characteristics, such as labor skills and institutional quality, converge to similar per capita income levels.
类似地，世界银行前首席经济学家林毅夫的观点也有缺陷。林毅夫认为，中国可以继续以每年8%的速度增长二十年，因为它拥有持久的“后发优势”，这一优势与其他因素一起，通过技术赶超美国带来生产率的快速提高。但这一观点没有考虑“条件趋同”的标准增长理论：只有拥有可比结构特征（比如劳动力技能和制度质量）的经济，它们的人均收入水平才会趋同。