With the country’s fiscal position still positive, it is difficult to image that the Chinese leadership would be so headstrong about “accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development” as to risk such an outcome. Even if it is, GDP-obsessed and debt-ridden local governments are likely to strive to achieve the highest possible growth rates for themselves, while paying lip service to Wen’s call for a slowdown.
中国的财政状况依然坚挺，因此中国领导人不太可能不惜风险一根筋地“加速经济发展模式转型”。就算中央政府确实如此，迷信GDP又债务缠身的地方政府仍有可能勉力追求尽可能高的增长率，同时在口头上鼎力支持温家宝的减速呼声。这就是为何大部分中国经济学家在官方目标大幅下调的情况下仍预测2012年的增长率将远高于8%。