A breakthrough might compel a phase of intense diplomacy, giving Iran a pathway to diplomatic normalization and opening the door for grand bargains that could begin to restore order and stability to the rest of the region. A breakdown, by contrast, though unlikely to lead immediately to war, could easily foment developments that lead in that direction, and the region as a whole could be pulled even deeper into the current vortex of chaos and violence.
现已进入最后阶段的洛桑会谈仅限于商讨伊朗核问题；但协议之外还有更大的风险和机遇。一旦突破可能会开启频繁的外交努力，为伊朗铺就外交正常化道路并致使地区其余国家开始恢复稳定与秩序。相比之下，谈判破裂虽然不太可能立即引发战争，但很容易助长朝那个方向发展的态势，此外还会导致地区更深地陷入当前的混乱和暴力。