Before January, this sequence of events was quite likely, but the ECB’s bond-buying program put a firebreak at each point of the contagion process. If holders of Portuguese bonds are alarmed by a future Greek default, the ECB will simply increase its bond buying; with no limit to its buying power, it will easily overwhelm any selling pressure.
在1月之前，这一连串事件发生的可能性相当大，但欧洲央行的债券购买计划扼杀了整个传染链。如果葡萄牙债券持有人收到警告，希腊有可能违约，那么欧洲央行只需要加码债券购买力度；欧洲央行拥有无穷购买力，可以轻易地战胜任何抛压。