If the underlying rate of TFP growth has in fact fallen from its historical norm of 1.5% per year to near zero in countries like the United States, then the living standards of today’s young adults will rise much more slowly than those of their parents. Any increase will depend entirely on improvements in education and training, which are absent from the data, and from investment in equipment and structures, which is depressed relative to historical levels.
如果连美国这些国家的全要素生产力基本增长速度实际上都已经从过去每年1.5％的常态降到接近零，那么当今年轻人的生活水平将比其父辈提升得更慢。任何提升都将完全取决于在教育和培训方面的改善，而这并未在数据中显示；或者依靠对设备和基础设施的投资来改善，但这方面也已经低于历史水平。