If you announce that you intend to balance the books over five years and pencil in a lot of spending cuts, consumers, relieved of their fears of future tax increases, will start spending more freely. This will cause national income to rise, and, with luck, the budget deficit will start shrinking, more or less according to plan, without requiring any, or much, retrenchment.
经济学家称之为“信号效应”。如果你宣布你想在五年后平衡预算，并列出各种支出削减项，消费者就会不再担心未来增税，会开始更加自由地花钱。这将让国民收入有所上升，如果幸运的话，预算赤字将或多或少地根据计划开始减少，并且不必要求任何（或较少）节约措施。