First, although a once-in-a-century event is as likely to occur at the beginning of the century as at any other time, it is much less likely to occur in the first decade of the century than later. Politicians with limited terms of office and thus foreshortened political horizons are likely to discount low-risk disaster possibilities, since the risk of damage to their careers from failing to take precautionary measures is truncated.
对那种规模的大海啸并没有采取措施的原因有好几个。首先，尽管一个世纪一次的事件有可能在本世纪的任何时间发生，在本世纪头十年发生的可能性要远远低于以后发生的可能性。政客们任期有限因而政治抱负受到局限，有可能不重视低风险灾害的可能性，这是因为不采取预防性措施而对其生涯造成的损害有限。