When it comes to national leadership at a time of fragility and transition, so much seems to depend on the luck of the draw. Will a country find itself with a Milošević or a Mugabe; an Atatürk or an Arafat; a Rabin who can see and seize the moment, and change course, or someone who never will?
挑选脆弱和过渡时期的国家领袖似乎对运气有着过多的依赖。一个国家会选出米洛舍维奇还是穆加贝；阿塔图尔克还是阿拉法特；发现并抓住机会走改革路线的拉宾，还是不撞南墙不回头的顽固派？