For the Fed, it is important to ask whether the 1930’s, when its premature policy tightening precipitated a double-dip recession, really is the best historical analogy to consider when contemplating how to time the exit from its current accommodating stance. Certainly, the Great Depression is not the only alternative on offer.
货币政策也存在同样的危险。对美联储来说，重要的是当考虑如何计算退出当前适应性立场的时机时，要搞清楚上世纪30年代——当其过早政策紧缩引发了双重衰退——是否真是用以类比的最佳历史时期。当然，大萧条并不是唯一的类比选择。