If the US pursues a predominantly confrontational approach, East Asian politics will inevitably become polarized, just as multipolar nineteenth-century Europe gave way to an increasingly bipolar order in lockstep with rising tensions between Germany and Britain. America’s so-called “pivot to Asia” might have been necessary from its point of view, given the concerns of its Asian allies about China.
美国的外交政策是另一个关键因素。如果美国采取的主要是对抗的态度，那么东亚政坛将免不了出现极化，一如19世纪的多极欧洲随着德国和英国的剑拔弩张而步入两极秩序。照此看来，美国的所谓“亚洲支点”可能是不要的，因为它担心其亚洲盟友对中国的态度。但是，除非美国想让亚洲回到冷战时期的对峙状态，否则它必须更加致力于将中国纳入可行的地区安全结构内。