Eventually, central banks will need to exit quantitative easing and zero-interest rates, putting downward pressure on risky assets, including commodities. Or the global recovery may turn out to be fragile and anemic, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment on commodities – and in bullishness about the US dollar.
但是，黄金毕竟缺乏内在价值，因此市场向下调整的风险巨大。各国央行终将择机退出量化宽松和零利率阶段，这会对高风险资产包括大宗商品资产价格形成向下压力。此外，全球经济复苏有可能是脆弱乏力的，这会导致大宗商品市场的熊市情绪，并加强美元的看多预期。