Most of us are not very good at giving proper weight to future events, especially if they are uncertain. So we may tell ourselves that the geologists could be wrong, and perhaps no tsunami will hit Padang in the next 30 years, and by then perhaps we will have new and better technologies for predicting them, giving people more time to get to higher ground.
尤其当未来事件无法确定时，大多数人并不擅长为它们授予适当的权重。于是我们可能告诉自己地质学家也会预测错误，未来三十年中巴东也许不会发生海啸，而真到那时我们可能已经掌握了更新更好的预测技术，让人们有更多时间到高地躲开海啸。