After two decades of low growth and deflation, Japanese gross public debt is now above 240% of GDP (and above 140% of GDP on a net basis); and, with the fiscal deficit at 9.5% of GDP, the debt burden continues to increase. According to the IMF, to reduce its net public debt to 80% of GDP by 2030, Japan would have to turn today’s 8.6% primary budget deficit (the balance excluding interest payments) into a 6.7% primary surplus by 2020 and maintain such surpluses continuously until 2030.
我预测日本会在事实上将一些政府债务实施长期货币化。在经历了20年的低增长和通缩之后，日本的总公共债务已经超过了GDP的240%（如果以净债务计算的话则超过GDP的140%）；同时在相当于GDP9.5%的财政赤字之下，债务负担依然在不断增长。据国际货币基金组织统计，如果要在2030年将净公共债务总额降低到相当于GDP80%的话，日本必须在2020年将当前8.6%的基本预算赤字转变为6.7%的基本盈余，并维持这一状况到2030年。