If the oil price stays at $40 a barrel, expect it to have next to no effect on short-term world GDP growth. But if the oil price remains at or near $60 a barrel, expect everyone's forecasts of GDP growth to be reduced by 1% per year.
持这种观点的绝非西奈一人。如果油价保持在每桶40美元的水平，那么短期内对各国国内生产总值的影响可以忽略不计。可如果油价在60美元或附近居高不下，那么预计人均国内生产总值的增长每年将下降1%。