Japanese manufacturing set the international standard; and some books even predicted an eventual war with a Japanese nuclear superpower. Such views extrapolated from Japan’s impressive postwar economic growth; today, after more than two decades of malaise, they simply remind us of the danger of linear projections.
三十年前，许多人都在评价日本时犯了严重的错误。在日本人均收入超过美国后，许多美国人担心美国会被日本拉下。日本制造业树立了国际标准；有些书甚至预言与超级核大国日本最终战争的爆发。这种观点源自日本令人印象深刻的战后经济增长；如今，经过二十多年的经济不景气，当年的推断只能提醒我们线性预测是危险的。