LONDON – In late 1979, I began work on my PhD thesis, an empirical investigation of the OPEC surplus and its disposal. It was the end of a decade in which oil prices had undergone two dramatic increases, and most of the various geniuses of the day were confidently predicting that they would continue to soar, from under $40 per barrel – a historic high at that time – to above $100.
发自伦敦&mdash;&mdash;1979年末，我开始撰写自己的博士论文，内容是对欧佩克国家贸易顺差及其使用方式的实证研究。在之前近十年间，石油价格经历了两场戏剧性的增长，当时各个领域的绝大多数领袖人物也都预测油价将继续飙升，从每桶40美元（当时的历史高点）飙升到100美元以上。等我在1982年完成研究时，石油价格已开始了长达20年的暴跌。油价一直未达到每桶100美元，直到2008年1月。