Discretionary consumption is typically deferred during recessions, especially for long-lasting durable goods such as motor vehicles, furniture, and appliances. Once the recession ends and recovery begins, a “stock-adjustment” response takes hold, as households compensate for foregone replacement and update their aging durable goods.
这就把我们带到了反对乐观的第二个理由：分析。经济学学生在基础宏观课程中接触的第一批概念之一是“被抑制的”消费者需求。自由裁量消费通常会在衰退中被推迟，特别是汽车、家居和电器等长期耐久品。当衰退结束、复苏开始时，“存货调整”反应就会出现，家庭开始补偿此前的替代，升级老旧的耐久品。