US Army Chief of Staff Eric Shinseki warned that although it would be possible to win the war with the 160,000 troops that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld used, it would take double that number to win the peace. But because Rumsfeld wanted to prove a point about transforming American military strategy, and his neo-conservative advisors had ideological blinders that distorted their appraisal of Iraqi reality, Shinseki’s advice was rejected.
许多军事专业人士预料到了这一问题。美国陆军参谋长辛塞奇警告说，尽管有可能用国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德所使用的16万名士兵赢得战争，但是赢得和平却需要两倍的军力。但是由于拉姆斯菲尔德想要证明让美国军事战略脱胎换骨的道理，以及他的新保守派顾问们因意识形态一叶障目、扭曲了对伊拉克现实情况的评估，辛塞奇的建议遭到了拒绝。国防部副部长沃尔福威茨在国会作证说，辛塞奇对士兵数量的估计“不着边际”。 实际上，结果证明其实是拉姆斯菲尔德和沃尔福威茨的估计才不着边际。现在两个人都以不在任了，而布什则开始转向增兵。