But we are not careful enough to distinguish situations in which equilibrium-restoring forces are strong from those in which such forces are weak. The dollar will fall and US long-term interest rates will rise, but only when traders on Wall Street and elsewhere decide that holding dollars and long-term US bonds is more risky in the short run.
经济学家们相信市场力量会驱使价格回到基点。但我们总是不够仔细，不能把平衡恢复力强与弱的情况区分开来。只有华尔街和别的地方的交易者都认定从短期看，持有美元和长期美国债券风险更大时，美元才会下跌，美国长期利率才会上升。等到这种情况发生时，长远的未来形势还是会和现在一样。