Historically, rising powers tend to become too confident too soon, leading them to behave imprudently, which frightens their neighbors. For example, Kaiser Wilhelm II dismissed Otto von Bismarck as chancellor in 1890, less than 20 years after the formation of the Second Reich, and began to destroy Bismarck’s carefully crafted alliance network.
从历史上看，崛起势力总是太过自信，操之过急，从而导致鲁莽行事，引起邻国担忧。比如，1890年，德皇威廉二世撤去俾斯麦总理之职，并开始破坏俾斯麦精心打造的同盟网，而此时第二帝国形成不过20年。他的强硬外交令法国、英国和俄国大惊失色，轻易地使它们形成了反德同盟。