The Germans encouraged their ally Austria to respond by invading Serbia, under the clear expectation that this would trigger war, but in a way that Germany would not be blamed. Fromkin shows that the assassination of Ferdinand merely provided Germany an excuse to fight a European War while it still had, according to its calculations, a chance of winning.
斐迪南的被暗杀提供了一个完美的借口。德国鼓励盟国奥地利作出回应侵占塞尔维亚，并明确这将引发战争，但这样德国将不会遭到指责。戴维·弗罗姆金认为，斐迪南的暗杀只是给德国发动欧洲战争提供了一个借口，因为当时德国通过预测认为还有一线希望赢得战争。