Pessimists stress the feared reversal of private capital flows, owing to the US Federal Reserve’s tapering of its purchases of long-term assets, as well as the difficulties of so-called second- and third-generation structural reforms and the limits to “catch up” growth outside of manufacturing. Optimists argue that the potential for rapid growth remains immense, owing to better macroeconomic fundamentals and the promise of best-practice technology spreading throughout the emerging world.
发自柏林——对于新兴市场国家增长前景的讨论如今已经呈现两极化。悲观主义者们对美联储收缩长期资产购买规模所导致的私人资金恐慌性回流忧心不已，再担心所谓第二代和第三代结构改革的艰巨性以及在制造业以外实现“赶超性”增长的局限性。乐观主义者则认为还存在极大的快速增长空间，因为宏观经济基本面已经大有改善，而且最先进技术也被广泛引入各国，带来更可靠的前景。