I have spent many hours trying to guide, cajole, and beg my energy analysts to create a model that might identify it, just as we have for currencies, bond yields, and equities. I have also discussed the idea with industry experts, most of whom believe that one exists, but that it moves around a lot, because it is greatly influenced by the marginal cost of oil production – itself an unstable variable.
在职业生涯中，我曾试图确定是否存在油价平衡点。我已经花了很多时间试图引导，哄骗，乞求我的能源分析师创建一个模型来识别它，就像我们对货币、债券收益率和股票所做的那样。我还与行业专家讨论了这个观点，他们大多相信存在这样一个平衡点，但它常常波动，因为受石油生产的边际成本影响极大，而这个成本本身是一个不稳定的变量。