Most current projections of a shift in the global balance of power are based primarily on one factor: projections of countries’ GDP growth. They thus ignore the other dimensions of power, including both hard military power and the soft power of narrative, not to mention the policy difficulties of combining them into successful strategies.
大多数与全球权力均衡转换有关的预测都主要基于一个指标：对某国GDP发展的预测。但这一方法也忽视了权力的其他方面，比如军事硬实力和述事的软实力，更不用说将这两大因素整合到国家战略中的政策难度了。