And, given America’s political polarization and policy gridlock, we can expect more fights on the budget and the debt ceiling, another rating downgrade, and no agreement on a path toward medium-term fiscal consolidation and sustainability – regardless of whether President Barack Obama is reelected in November. On the contrary, we should expect agreement only on the path of least political resistance: avoidance of tough fiscal choices until the bond vigilantes eventually wake up, spike long rates, and force fiscal adjustment on the political system.
在美国，最新经济数据——包括疲软的劳动力市场数据——确认了增长不振的现状，2012年下半年产出不可能大大超过1—6月份的1.6%的年增长率。此外，由于美国政坛的两极分化和政策僵局，不难预期，在预算和债务上限问题上还会有更多争论，信用评级降级还会再次发生，关于中期财政整合和可持续性问题的协议也将难以达成，不管奥巴马是否能在11月连任总统。相反，协议只可能在政治阻力最小的方向上达成：在债券卫士最终觉醒、长期利率大幅上升、政治制度不得不进行财政调整之前避免痛苦的财政选择。