The alternative forecast implies that the annual budget deficit at the end of ten years will be back up to 4.7% of GDP, with the debt/GDP ratio at 83% and rising. And those estimates are based on the optimistic assumption that the economy will have returned gradually to full employment with low inflation and moderate interest rates.
为了提供更好的指导，CBO给出了“替代财政情景”，在这一情景中，可能性极低的内容被剔除出预测。替代预测表明，十年后的年度预算赤字将回升至GDP的4.7%，债务/GDP比率为83%并呈上升趋势。且这些估算基于乐观的假设——经济将逐渐恢复充分就业，通胀较低，利率也很温和。