For most of 2005, Americans behaved as if they didn’t really believe that oil prices would remain high, at least for a while. This is less startling than it may appear: econometric studies suggest that it takes a year to two before the full effects of oil-price increases are felt.
在 2005 年大多数时间，美国消费者的表现好像是没有真正相信油价会居高不下，或至少暂时会居高不下。这种现象并不像表面上那样惊人：计量经济学研究表明，油价上涨所带来的种种后果要在一到两年之后才会全面感觉到。现在，由于期货交易市场预测在未来两年里，油价将会达到 50-60 美元一桶，对高耗油车辆的需求已经逐渐消散，与之一起消散的还有美国汽车公司的前景。这些公司的战略将赌注押在低油价和美国与 SUV的良好关系上。