Iraq may be in trouble, but about 90% of its oil is produced in the south, near Basra, which is fully under Shia control, or in the north, under the control of the Kurds. Only about 10% is produced near Mosul, now under the control of the Islamic State.
第四，中东动荡没有像1973、1979或1990年那样导致大规模石油供给和价格冲击。相反，全球石油市场处于产能过剩状态。伊拉克也许麻烦重重，但其90%左右的石油产自什叶派完全控制的南部巴格达附近或库尔德人控制的北部。只有大约10%的石油产于目前被伊斯兰国控制的摩苏尔附近。