We have to examine the issue with some care, understanding that the issue that Mandeville raised is really a statistical one: the outcome of government deficit reduction is never entirely predictable, so we can ask only how likely such a plan is to succeed in restoring economic prosperity. And the biggest problem here is accounting for possible reverse causality.
我们必须谨慎地研究这个问题，并意识到曼德维尔所提到的状况实际上是一个统计学上的现象：你永远无法全面预测政府紧缩政策的结果，因此我们只能询问这么一个计划成功推动经济复苏的可能性究竟有多大。而其中最重要的问题则是解释可能存在的逆向因果关系。