Consequently, some analysts suspect a “hidden opposition vote,” such as occurred in Nicaragua in 1990, when Violeta Chamorrro won the presidency, or in Mexico in 2000, when Vicente Fox emerged victorious. According to this logic, the “undecided” are actually leaning toward Capriles, and if their number is larger than Chávez’s margin in the polls, the caudillo will lose.
在高度极端化和政治化的委内瑞拉，不可能出现高达20%的选民尚未决定投票方向的情况。因此，一些分析者怀疑存在一批 “潜在的反对票”，当时1990年的尼加拉瓜和2000年的墨西哥都出现过这类选票，最后查莫罗（Violeta Chamorrro）和福克斯分别在两国获胜。根据这一逻辑，“未决定”选票实际上是倾向拉东斯基的，只要这部分选票大过查韦斯的民调优势，查韦斯就可能失败。