But a hard landing becomes more likely in 2013, as the stimulus fades, non-performing loans rise, the investment bust accelerates, and the problem of rolling over the debts of provincial governments and their special investment vehicles can no longer be papered over. And, given a new leadership’s caution as it establishes its power, reforms will occur at a snail’s pace, making social and political unrest more likely.
但2013年，由于刺激措施停止、不良贷款增加、投资泡沫破裂加速以及省政府及其地方融资平台债务展期问题无法再掩盖，发生硬着陆的可能性会更大。此外，新领导层掌权阶段将会谨慎为上，因此改革进度将极为缓慢，导致社会和政治动荡可能性大增。