Add the region’s eastern and western peripheries – Afghanistan and North Africa (including the Sahel and South Sudan) – and the picture becomes even grimmer. Indeed, Libya is increasingly unstable, al-Qaeda is actively engaged in the Sahel (as the fighting in Mali shows), and no one can foresee what will happen in Afghanistan after the US and its NATO allies withdraw in 2014.
若再考虑东西方边缘——阿富汗和北非（包括萨赫勒和南苏丹），前景就更加悲观了。事实上，伊比亚正在日渐动荡，基地组织在萨赫勒活动频繁（马里内战就是明证），没人可以预见阿富汗在2014年美国和北约盟军撤走后会发生什么。