No one can tell when the first will happen; and no governments are prepared to do the second. So the most likely outcome is more of the same: continued drift in a state of semi-stagnation.
无法获知第一种情形什么时候会发生；也没有哪个政府准备走第二条路。因此最有可能的结果大概是老方一帖：在半停滞状态中继续漂泊。