With high - and volatile - oil prices, businesses will focus their investments less on boosting productivity and more on maintaining flexible energy usage. At $40 a barrel, expect oil prices to slow the long-run growth rate of the world's potential output by 0.1% per year.
高油价还可能对长期生产率的增长构成威胁。如果油价居高不下、动荡不稳，企业就会把资金投向的重点放在保持灵活的能源利用，而忽略对生产率的提高。40美元一桶的油价预计会使全球潜在产出的长期年增长率降低近01.%，而60美元一桶的油价将会"可衡量的"全球潜在产出长期年增长率降低近0.3%。