In the event that the coalition of NATO forces in Afghanistan is defeated, a wave of Islamic extremism will submerge the Central Asian states, inciting local civil wars. For Russia, this could mean (in the best case) tens of thousands of refugees or (in the worst case) the arrival of armed militias on its territory.
当来自西边的军事威胁还要不可及之时，中亚这边的威胁却已经摆在眼前了。随着北约联军在阿富汗战场上的节节败退，一股伊斯兰极端主义的浪潮正席卷中亚各国，甚至可能挑起内战。对俄罗斯来说，幸运的话要应付的只是数万名难民，万一运气不济，迎来的可能就是武装到牙齿的伊斯兰极端分子。