Many economists are becoming even more pessimistic, pointing to Japan as evidence that, after three decades, China’s breakneck growth may be coming to an end. Japan’s economy, they point out, achieved more than 20 years of sustained rapid growth; but, in the 40 years since 1973, annual growth has exceeded 5% only a handful of times, and output has stagnated for the last two decades.
许多经济学家甚至更为悲观，指出经过三十年的快速发展，中国经济的高速增长期可能像日本那样结束。他们认为日本经济实现了超过20年的持续快速增长；但在1973年后的40年中，日本年度经济增长超过5%的情况屈指可数，并且20年来产能一直处于停滞状态。