If the real interest rate on Greek debt were 4% (more or less what Greece is paying now for the emergency loans from the European Union) and annual GDP grew by 2% on average, the required primary fiscal surplus each year for the next quarter-century would be 5.7% of GDP. That is an unimaginably large burden, and it risks condemning Greece to permanent recession and social unrest.
希腊的公共债务总额已经相当于该国官方GDP的160%，如果要下降到《马斯特里赫特条约》中公共债务不得超过GDP60%的限制条件估计得花上25年。如果这些债务的实际利率为4%（与希腊从欧盟取得紧急贷款利率相近）而希腊年均GDP增长为2%的话，意味着在未来25年内都要取得想当于GDP5.7%的基础财政盈余。这显然是个无法想象的巨大包袱，而希腊也很可能由此陷入长期的经济衰退和社会动荡。