Over the past 33 years, I have had plenty of opportunity to study both oil prices and foreign exchange rates, including overseeing a research department of talented people trying to predict their movements. The experience has left me with a good deal of skepticism – not to mention bruises.
在过去的33年里，我有足够的机会来研究石油价格和汇率，包括带领一个汇集众多人才尝试预测石油价格走势的研究部门。这一经历使我产生了一大堆的怀疑&mdash;&mdash;更别说挫折了。但是我相信还是有可能对石油价格走势进行一个大范围的预测。