While both interest-rate liberalization and deleveraging are critical to the long-term health of China’s economy, the skyrocketing cost of borrowing is forcing many low-risk companies, which are unable to offer sufficiently high rates of return, out of the market. At the same time, real-estate developers who have borrowed heavily from shadow-banking institutions, based on the assumption that property prices would continue to rise steadily, may struggle to repay their debts, with a sharp decline in prices inevitably leading to defaults.
尽管利率自由化和去杠杆化对中国经济的长期健康至关重要，但高企的借贷成本迫使许多低风险公司因为无法提供足够高的回报率而被挤出市场。与此同时，认为房价将继续稳步上升而大量从影子银行机构举债房地产开发商可能难以偿还债务，价格的急剧下跌将不可避免地导致违约。考虑到影子银行金融的很大一部分资金来自正式银行部门，这可能导致影响整个金融业的连锁反应。