Of course, the drag will be much smaller, as tax increases and spending cuts will be much milder. But, even if the fiscal cliff turns out to be a mild growth bump – a mere 0.5% of GDP – and annual growth at the end of the year is just 1.5%, as seems likely, the fiscal drag will suffice to slow the economy to stall speed: a growth rate of barely 1%.
第三，财政悬崖将对2013年GDP形成4.5%的拖累作用，如果减税和转移支付到期停止且严厉的支出削减被触发的话。当然，如果增税减支较为温和的话，拖累作用也会大大降低。但是，即使财政悬崖最后只是增长的小趔趄——GDP只损失0.5%——且年末年增长率最后只有1.5%（看起来很有可能），财政拖累仍将把经济增速压低到停滞水平——经济增长率低于1%。