The renminbi’s gradual yet sustained appreciation against the US dollar is the cost shock’s main driver, but the demand shock that followed the 2008 global financial crisis aggravated the situation. It is likely that TFP has declined substantially as China’s economy has slowed in response to these shocks.
外部冲击还解释了中国GDP在2007年之后的减速。人民币逐渐而持续的对美元升值是成本冲击的主要推动力，但随2008年金融危机到来的需求冲击加重了困局。有可能中国经济因为这些冲击而出现的减速导致了TFP大幅下降。