So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight. They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown.
目前，投资者对预算斗争所隐含的风险并不担心。他们认为——与过去一样——财政摊牌将会在最后一刻达成妥协，避免违约和政府关门。但投资者似乎低估了美国国家政治功能紊乱的程度。大部分共和党对政府支出怀有如圣战主义者一般的敌意，因此财政爆炸在今秋并非不可能发生之事。