Some changes will be evolutionary, taking many years to manifest themselves; others will be sudden and more disruptive. Yet, as complex as all of this sounds – and, by definition, paradigm changes are complicated affairs that, fortunately, seldom occur – a simple analytical framework may help shed light on what to look for, what to expect and where, and how best to adapt.
有些挑战是革命性的，需要许多年才能彻底显露出来；而另外一些则会突然爆发并造成一定混乱。而虽然这一切听上去非常复杂——幸运的是，从定义上来说范式变革作为一种结构复杂的事物其实发生率极低——因此一个简单的分析框架将告诉我们应该寻找什么，期待什么，从哪里寻找以及什么适应方式才是最优选项。