The key to this scenario is that China’s leaders move the economy onto a more balanced and sustainable growth path, based on realistic expectations. They cannot afford to mishandle unavoidable challenges, such as those stemming from domestic institutional weaknesses, political uncertainty, and external shocks.
和林毅夫不同，我认为难以避免的中国经济减速很快就会到来。但是，和萨默斯不同，我不认为前景必然苍凉。这一情景的关键是中国领导人让中国经济转向更平衡、可持续的增长路径，以现实的预期为基础。他们决不能错误地处理不可避免的挑战，比如那些来自国内制度缺陷、政治不确定性和外部冲击的挑战。