But China’s export-led growth model has limits – and the country is reaching them. Unless change comes soon, the foreign-exchange regime and capital controls on which the model relies will become too deeply entrenched, and the window of opportunity for adjustment will be missed.
第一个问题是中国对出口战略的可能的长期依赖。在经济发展的早期阶段，几乎所有增长战略都可以归结为贸易战略。但中国的出口拉动型增长模式存在极限，并且已肯快靠近那个极限。除非很快采取变化，否则作为这一模式的基础的外汇机制和资本管制将会变得过于根深蒂固，调整的机会窗口也会错失。