There is, of course, a danger that at some point Putin may choose to lash out and create a truly massive international crisis, and perhaps precipitate some new form of direct East-West warfare. But to say that, one must also assume that to some extent he himself is unbalanced and has shifted from a kind of guerilla warfare against the West, always with some possibility of retreat, to all-out combat.
当然，在某个点上普京也许会选择孤注一掷，制造真正的大规模国际危机，也许还会引爆新形式的东西方直接战争，这种危险是存在的。但果真如此的话，我们还必须假设，在某种程度上，他本人已经失衡，从对西方的某种游击战——永远存在撤退的可能——转变为孤注一掷的战争。这一情况的结果具有内在不可预测性，但也许无论如何对俄罗斯人的福祉来说都是一场灾难。如果俄罗斯经济继续衰退，并且西方继续威慑普京使之不敢扩大武力，我们仍然可以认为可以形成某种可接受的解决方案（我在谈及芬兰模式时曾公开建议过）。但这反过来取决于西方在支持乌克兰稳定自身方面有多坚定。