It reflects the same error made by scholars of technology who argue that all of the radical breakthroughs have already been made. As this view is sometimes put, the next 20 years will see no breakthrough as revolutionary as the steam engine or the transistor.
这一推论几乎肯定是错误的。这一错误就好比是技术学者认为所有的重大突破都已经完成了那样。这一观点时不时地指出，未来二十年不可能出现蒸汽机或晶体管这样的革命性突破。技术进步将是渐进性的，而不可能是革命性的。事实上，由于进步不大，其结果可能是生产率增长的放缓和“大停滞”。