In 2004, the investment share of GDP rose to 45%—one of the highest levels in recorded financial history—as banks financed a huge expansion of property development and manufacturing capacity. Now, the largest banks are claiming significant increases in non-performing property loans, while the glut of new industrial capacity implies that some firms may not have adequate profits to service their debts.
然而，最大的忧患在于不断增加的不良贷款。交通银行的业绩说明，中国2003和2004年的贷款高峰可能在今年和明年引发另一波坏账。2004年，随着银行向巨幅增长的房地产开发和制造业放款，投资占GDP的比例上升到45%——这是有记录的金融史上最高的水平之一。现在，最大的几家银行都声称不良房地产贷款数额大大增加，同时新的工业生产能力过剩，说明某些企业可能没有足够的利润偿还债务的利息。