Third, we have little idea about how the public forms expectations about the central bank’s future actions. If the Fed announces that it will tolerate 4% inflation, could the public think that the Fed is bluffing, or that, if an implicit inflation target can be broken once, it can be broken again?
第三，我们对公众如何形成关于央行未来行动的预期一无所知。如果美联储宣布可以接受4%的通胀率，那么公众是会把这当做美联储在虚张声势，还是认为既然通胀目标可以提高一次，那么就能提高第二次？公众预期会指向通胀率大大提高吗？增加的风险升水如何影响长期利率？美国要经历怎样的衰退才能将通胀压回适宜水平？