Even if they overcome their reservations and back Ribadu or Buhari, and either candidate goes on to beat Jonathan at the polls, angry Delta youths could respond with fresh violence against oil workers, disrupting production. Other trouble spots – central Nigeria, where ethnic tensions are simmering, and the far north, the stomping ground of Boko Haram, a violent Muslim sect – could get sucked into election-related violence.
即便他们真的脱离人民民主党，转而支持利巴杜或布哈里，而且其中一位能在民意调查中打败乔纳森，但愤怒的三角洲青年可能会以袭击石油工人，打乱生产作为回应。其他较麻烦的地方——包括尼日利亚中部（那里的民族矛盾较为突出）和北部边境（激进穆斯林派系博科圣地的地盘）——也可能遭受与大选有关的暴力袭击。