With a fast-rising RMB, net capital outflows will increase, which is what Japan experienced after the Plaza Accord of 1985 pushed the yen upward. As a result, balance-of-payments equilibrium would be reached at a certain exchange-rate level, but a current-account surplus (albeit smaller) would still exist.
那么如果人民币汇率可以浮动的话，是不是就能实现经常账户平衡？答案可能是否定的。随着人民币的快速升值，资本净流出可能增加，而日本在1985年签订了《广场协议》之后正是经历了这一幕。结果是，贸易支付差额将在某个汇率水平上达到均衡，但经常账户的顺差（虽然变得更小）依然会继续存在。