Even if the US avoids the full fiscal cliff of 4.5% of GDP that is looming at the end of the year, it is highly likely that a fiscal drag amounting to 1.5% of GDP will hit the economy in 2013. With the US economy currently growing at a 1.6% annual rate, a fiscal drag of even 1% implies near-stagnation in 2013, though a modest recovery in housing and manufacturing, together with QE3, should keep US growth at about its current level in 2013.
即便美国避免了可能在今年年末出现的相当于GDP4.5%的全面财政削减，也很有可能会有一场相当于GDP1.5%的财政拖累来对2013年的经济造成打击。美国经济目前的年均增长为1.6%，即便住宅和制造业都已经出现温和复苏，加上QE3，都能将美国2013年的增长保持在这一水平，但即便是1%的财政拖累都将意味着经济增长会在2013年近乎停滞。