In my ongoing quest to become better at forecasting, I began, a few years ago, to pay attention to the five-year forward oil price as it compares to the Brent crude oil spot price, the price of a barrel of oil today. I suspect that the five-year forward price is much less influenced by speculation in the oil market than the spot price, and more representative of true commercial needs.
在寻找预测石油价格更完美方式的过程中，我从几年前开始注意五年远期石油价格与布伦特原油现货价格，即今天每桶石油价格的对比。我猜想5年远期价格比现货价格更少受到石油市场投机的影响，更能代表真正的商业需求。因此，当五年远期价格开始与现货价格移动方向不同时，我就会留神。