Of course, China’s savings rate will also decline, but Japan’s experience since the 1980’s demonstrates how a sharp fall in investment can generate large and persistent current-account surpluses, even when the savings rate is falling and the currency is appreciating. Indeed, a stronger currency can paradoxically feed external surpluses, while discouraging investment in export-oriented industries.
当然，中国的投资率也将下降，但日本20世纪80年代以来的经验表明，投资的急剧下降可能造成大规模持续性经常项目盈余，即使储蓄率也在下降且货币在升值。事实上，货币升值反而会助长外部盈余，同时妨碍对出口导向行业的投资。