The most likely form of the fiscal compact now seems to be a very mild agreement requiring each country to “balance its budgets over the business cycle.” Although failure to comply would in principle lead to automatic financial penalties, it is difficult to imagine how such failure could be determined in a country like Spain.
目前，财政契约的最有可能形式是一份折中协议，要求各国“在商业周期内平衡预算”。尽管违反这一规定在原则上会引发自动财政惩罚，但你很难想象在西班牙这样的国家如何定义“违反”。西班牙的失业率持久地超过15%，应该在什么时候要求它增加税收、削减社会转移支付？是否强制西班牙这样做取决于欧洲委员会，因此这是一项政治决定，而不是契约支持者所宣称的是一项“自动的”技术要求。