Once the link between “reform” and growth is broken – as it has been in Greece – his argument collapses. With no path to growth, the creditors’ demand for an eventual 3.5%-of-GDP primary surplus is actually a call for more contraction, beginning with another deep slump this year.
布兰查德应该了解情况，不至于出现如此失策。只要“改革”和增长之间的关系不成立——希腊的情况正是如此——他的观点也就破产了。由于找不到增长之路，债权人所要求的最终达到相当于GDP的3.5%的初级盈余实际上相当于要求进一步收缩，而今年的深度衰退只是开始。