But the problem for Cowen (and for the EU) is that this level of support does not seem to translate to the ballot box: the Irish rejected EU treaties on two of the last three occasions when they were asked to vote. The gap between the Yes and No sides remains within the margin of error and could easily reverse itself, as it did in the weeks leading up to the June referendum.
最新一轮针对《里斯本条约》的民意调查也显示对条约的支持态度有所反弹。但是科恩（以及欧盟）面对的问题是：这种程度的支持似乎并不会转化成投票箱里的赞成票。在过去三次针对欧盟条约的投票中，爱尔兰人两次都投的死反对票。支持派和反对派在人数上相差无几，并且很有可能会发生逆转，就像在六月那次公民复决的几周之前发生过的那样。