Since the true value of long-term assets is so hard to estimate, it is human nature to focus on the rate of increase in their observed prices, and to allow one’s attention to become fixated on these assets just as their value is increasing very fast. This can lead people to make serious mistakes, paying more for long-term assets than they should, even assuming that the economy will perform spectacularly well in the future.
由于长期资产的真正价值很难预测，人们会自然而然地把注意力集中到观察价格的上涨比率，并仅仅由于价值的迅速提升而去关注这些资产。这样会让人犯下严重的错误，为长期资产付出太多的代价，甚至预期未来经济也能够保持强劲的发展势头。在瞬间的兴奋而不是对经济基本原理测算的驱使下，人们会透支自己的财力，受到广告的蛊惑，不小心投资错误的资产、投资不恰当的地区以及经济行为。