The most likely outcome is that all will be fine, and the Fed doesn’t really care if a modest equity-price correction ensues. No, the real risk is that, if the Fed starts hiking, it will be blamed for absolutely every bad thing that happens in the economy for the next six months to a year, which will happen to coincide with the heart of a US presidential election campaign.
让我们假设美联储会在12月的会议上提高利率0.25个基点，并尽可能弱化对市场的影响。最可能出现的结果是一切都相安无事，同时美联储不会为随之出现的适度股票价格调整而担忧。但其实真正的风险在于，如果美联储开始加息，就要为经济在未来半年到一年内出现的所有坏情况承担罪责，并与即将举行的美国总统大选产生联动。就因为一个小加息，无论造成坏结果的真实原因是什么，都要由美联储来背黑锅。