The “surge” will end sooner or later, and the Iraqis, crippled by violence and corruption, will still be incapable of uniting their polity, and, with their military still unable to take over from the Americans, jihadi and inter-ethnic violence is bound to erupt again. As Iraqi Colonel Omar Ali, the Iraqi battalion commander in Mosul, the main focus of the insurgency today, recently put it, “Without the Americans, it would be impossible for us to control Iraq.”
这一战争把伊拉克社会碾成了粉末，各个教派分化林立。“增兵”早晚要结束，而惨遭暴力和腐败侵袭的伊拉克民众还是无法团结其政治组织。而且，由于他们的军队还是无法从美国人那里接管过来，因此伊斯兰圣战组织以及不同族裔之间的暴力还是肯定会再次爆发。摩索尔是当今反叛力量的主要据点，伊拉克军队驻在那里的一位营长阿里说：“没有美国人，我们根本不可能控制伊拉克。”