Those who wanted to see Ukraine anchored in the West, or imagined that sanctions on Russia would incite regime change in the Kremlin, by palace coup or popular uprising, have seen their hopes dashed: President Vladimir Putin’s popularity is as high as ever. In Russia, those who predicted the immediate collapse of Ukraine and the establishment in its eastern and southern provinces of a pro-Russian “Novorossia” have been similarly disappointed.
但哪一方可以声称占优？有些人希望乌克兰归属西方，有些人想象对俄制裁能够通过宫廷政变和群众暴动让克里姆林宫改换门庭，这些人的希望都落了空：总统普京的支持率和往常一样高。在俄罗斯，预测乌克兰马上就会崩溃、其东部和南部省份马上就会建立亲俄的“诺沃罗沙”（Novorossia）的人也收获了失望。