And in the US, even if President Barack Obama and the Republicans in Congress agree on a budget plan that avoids the looming “fiscal cliff,” spending cuts and tax increases will invariably lead to some drag on growth in 2013 – at least 1% of GDP. In Japan, the fiscal stimulus from post-earthquake reconstruction will be phased out, while a new consumption tax will be phased in by 2014.
2013年，全球增长下行风险将因财政紧缩扩大到大部分发达国家而被放大。到目前为止，衰退性财政拖累集中在欧元区外围国和英国。但现在正在向欧元区核心国蔓延。而在美国，即使总统奥巴马和国会共和党在预算计划问题上达成一致，避免跌入“财政悬崖”，支出削减和税收增加也必将拖累2013年的增长至少1%的GDP。在日本，地震后重建财政刺激将退出，2014年将启动新的消费税。