He argued at that time, and rightly in my view, that short-term tax reductions and transfers would be partly saved, not spent, and that public debt would multiply and create a long-term shadow over the fiscal balance and the economy. Even if interest rates are currently low, he noted, they will rise, thereby increasing the debt-service burden on the newly accumulated debt.
货币政策起效是一个好消息，因为财政刺激对短期需求管理而言不是一个强力工具。讽刺的是，在著名的1998 年的文章中，克鲁格曼解释过个中缘由。当时他指出——也正如我意——短期减税和转移支付会部分地储蓄起来而不是花掉，而公共债务会成倍增长，给财政平衡和经济带来长期影响。即使目前利率处于低位，他说，它们也终会上升，从而增加新增债务的偿付负担。