Given the EU’s fundamental interconnectedness – in economic, financial, geopolitical, and social terms – the disruptive impact of each shock would amplify the others, overwhelming the region’s circuit breakers, leading to recession, reviving financial instability, and creating pockets of social tension. This would increase already-high unemployment, expose excessive financial risk-taking, embolden Russia, and strengthen populist movements further, thereby impeding comprehensive policy responses.
但如果三大风暴汇聚成一个灾难性超级风暴，这些缓冲将受到重创。欧盟从根本上是一个互联互通的实体——经济、金融、地缘政治、社会等维度都是如此——每起冲击的破坏性影响将彼此放大，击穿地区断路保护器、导致衰退、重现金融动荡、制造各种社会紧张。这将导致已然高企的失业进一步增加、暴露过度金融冒险、给俄罗斯壮胆，并进一步加强民粹主义运动，从而妨碍全面的政策应对措施。