In 1994, rising short-term rates caused increases in long-term rates - and declines in long-term bond prices - that were at least double what standard models at the time were predicting. Moreover, interest rates in the world's peripheral, developing economies rose far more than rates in the advanced industrial core.
因此，如果央行开始提高利率会怎样？1994年，短期利率的增长引起了长期利率的提高，以及长期债券价格的下降，波动的幅度至少是人们预计的正常水平的两倍。另外，处于经济边缘的发展中国家的利率增幅远远超过了处于经济核心的发达工业国家。