The unemployment rate has dropped to 5%, just above the Fed’s current median estimate for the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). While the true NAIRU level is probably lower, and we are likely witnessing a secular decline in the workforce participation rate, the US labor market should still tighten in 2016.
与此同时，我们应该看到，多年来第一次出现了有意义的工资上涨压力。失业率已经降到5%，略高于美联储最新的不引起通胀加速的失业率（NAIRU）中位估计值。尽管真正的NAIRU水平可能还要更低一些，并且劳动参与率可能出现长期下降，但2016年美国劳动力市场仍应该趋紧。