The US unemployment rate has fallen well below 6% – not quite full employment, but close. If output and employment were rising this year as rapidly as in 2014, the Federal Reserve would probably have felt the need to start raising interest rates as early as this June.
无论如何，重商主义逻辑已不再重要。美国失业率已经下降到6%以下——虽然没有达到充分就业，但也距离不远了。如果今年产出和就业增长和2014年一样快，美联储可能认为有必要最早从今年6月开始升息。从目前的情况看，美联储几乎肯定会将升息决定推迟一段时间。如果贸易协议对美国出口的刺激作用确实大于进口，美联储也许不得不大大提前给经济踩刹车。