The first component of the bet – more inclusive global growth – anticipates continued economic recovery in the United States, with a 3% growth rate this year bolstered by robust wage growth. It also assumes China’s annual growth rate will stabilize at 6.5-7%, thereby enabling the risks posed by pockets of excessive leverage in the shadow-banking system to be gradually defused, even as the economy’s growth engines continue to shift from exports and public capital spending toward domestic consumption and private investment.
这一赌注的第一项——更包容的全球增长——认为美国经济将持续复苏，强健的工资增长将让今年的增长率达到3%。该赌注还认为中国年增长率将稳定在6.5—7%，因此影子银行体系杠杆过高的风险将可以逐步消化，即使经济增长引擎继续从出口和公共资本支出转变为国内消费和私人投资。