A state is far more likely to go to war to defend its unity. The United States and Spain did it in their civil wars, and today’s Spain would go to the outer limits of its capacity to prevent a Catalan or Basque referendum, let alone independence.
更有可能的是国家发动战争捍卫统一。美国和西班牙的内战都是如此，今天的西班牙也会竭尽全力阻止加泰罗尼亚或巴斯克公投，更不用说独立了。