It is hard for me to believe that if Greece had abandoned the euro in 2010, the economic fallout would have amounted to even a quarter of that. Furthermore, it seems equally improbable that the immediate impact of exiting the eurozone today would be larger than the long-run costs of remaining, given the insistence of Greece’s creditors on austerity.
如果用爱尔兰作为衡量标杆，那么希腊不退出欧元区的代价是一年GDP的75%。我很难相信，如果希腊在2010年就放弃欧元，经济损失回达到这个数字的四分之一。此外，考虑到希腊债权人坚持紧缩要求，现在退出欧元区的即时影响也不太可能大过留在欧元区的长期成本。