The timing of the inevitable policy shift back to tightening depends on overall inflation, particularly house prices. The problem is that the investment share of China’s GDP is already about 50%, while double-digit investment growth in 2013 is expected to push that rate still higher.
不可避免的政策回转到紧缩的时机取决于总体的通货膨胀，尤其是房价。问题在于投资占中国GDP的比重已经达到了50%，而2013年高达两位数的投资增长预计会使得这一比率更高。这样的增长模式根本是不可持续的。