A back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests that a five-year lesser depression every 50 years that pushes the economy an extra 10% below its potential would reduce average investment returns and retard private investment by enough to shave two-tenths of a percentage point from economic growth every year. As a result, America would not just end this episode 3% poorer than it might have been; the gap would grow – to 7% by 2035 and 11% by 2055.
我不知道这一额外风险会对美国和全球经济增长造成怎样的阻碍作用。无需复杂计算就能看出，50年一遇的5年小萧条将会导致经济潜力降低10%，这将抑制平均投资回报和私人投资，使每年的经济增长率下降0.2个百分点。因此，美国的经济将不会仅仅下降3%，空缺会持续增长，到2035年增长到7%，到2055年增长到11%。