Under the flexible exchange-rate system that now prevails around the world, if each country focuses its monetary policy on achieving ideal inflation and employment conditions at home, the result will be reasonably stable – or even so-called Pareto-optimal – macroeconomic conditions. To be sure, the US may respond to China’s devaluation by postponing interest-rate hikes or moderating the pace of its withdrawal from quantitative easing, and Japan may intensify its own QE to cope with negative spillovers.
尽管如此，关于人民币贬值将引发“货币战争”的警告是站不住脚的。当今世界，弹性汇率制度是主流，如果每个国家的货币政策都专注于实现理想的国内通胀和就业条件，结果将是相当稳定——甚至所谓的帕累托最优——的宏观经济环境。当然，美国也许会通过暂停升息或调整退出量化宽松的节奏来应对人民币贬值，而日本可能加码其自身的量化宽松以应对消极溢出效应。但竞争性累计贬值不会发生。