In the first, a century ago, confidence was underpinned by gold; in the more recent wave of globalization, it depended upon the power of the human intellect to solve policy problems. The end of inflation and “the great moderation” of the past three decades were fundamental to the liberalization of large parts of the world and to increased confidence, trade, and prosperity.
历史上曾两度达成这种共识。第一次是在一个世纪前，当时信心的保证是黄金；后一次是在最近的全球化浪潮中，这回信心的基础是人类智慧解决政策难题的能力。通货膨胀的终结和所谓“大温和时期”（the great moderation）——人们以此来描述最近30年经济动荡几乎消失的现象——构成了某种基础，在此基础之上，世界的大部分都经历了自由化过程，信心、贸易与繁荣也得到增进。