NEW YORK – After the Greek and Irish crises and the spread of financial contagion to Portugal, Spain, and possibly even Italy, the eurozone is now in a serious crisis. There are three possible scenarios: “muddle through,” based on the current approach of “lend and pray”; “break-up,” with disorderly debt restructurings and possible exit of weaker members; and “greater integration,” implying some form of fiscal union.
纽约——继希腊、爱尔兰分别爆发危机之后，财政瘟疫传染到了葡萄牙、西班牙甚至意大利，欧元区已陷入严重危机之中。前景有三种可能：一是“蒙混过关”（继续现在的“贷款加祈祷”）；二是“分崩离析”（债务重组陷入无序状态，某些脆弱的成员国退出货币联盟）；三是“加强一体化”（预示着某种形式的财政联盟）。