The Fed seems poised to make a similar – and possibly even more serious – misstep in the current environment. For starters, given ongoing concerns about post-crisis vulnerabilities and deflation risk, today’s Fed seems likely to find any excuse to prolong its incremental normalization, taking a slower pace than it adopted a decade ago.
从当前环境看，美联储可能要重蹈覆辙——后果可能更加严重。首先，由于人们一直担心后危机时代的脆弱性和通缩风险，今天的美联储可能会寻找一切借口延长其渐进式正常化，采取比十年前还要慢的正常化节奏。