In reality, the trade imbalance reflects the difference between China’s large savings surplus and the even bigger US saving deficiency (largely explained by the US fiscal deficit). Indeed, the wholesale price index – the best measure of tradable-goods prices in China – has been falling by about 1.5% annually, which suggests that the renminbi may even be slightly overvalued.
热钱问题的恶化不但来自国际上对人民币升值的压力一直存在（通常是来自西方经济学家和政客，他们指责汇率造成了中国对美国和其他发达经济体的经常项目盈余）。在现实中，贸易失衡反映了中国巨大的储蓄盈余和美国更大的储蓄赤字（大部分可用美国的财政赤字解释）之间的差异。事实上，批批发价格指数——衡量中国可贸易商品价格的最佳指标——一直在以么年约1.5%的幅度下降，这表明人民币甚至有可能略微高估了。