The US and NATO would prefer to avoid an abrupt and complete withdrawal – a preference that Afghanistan’s neighbors share, fearing that any resulting disorder would spill over their borders. The problem is that Karzai has refused to sign a painstakingly negotiated bilateral security agreement governing a post-2014 US-NATO mission in Afghanistan, leaving Obama with little choice but to begin contingency planning.
美国和北约更想避免突然而完全的撤军——阿富汗的邻国也不想这样，它们担心这会带来失序，并且其效应会溢出到它们境内。问题在于卡尔扎伊拒绝签署好不容易谈成的关于2014年后美国-北约阿富汗任务的双边安全协议，导致奥巴马别无选择，只能启动备选计划。唯一想得到的替代方案是等到下任总统上台，寄希望于卡尔扎伊的继任者能正式接受协议。