A back-of-the-envelope calculation suffices to show that, unless the government is prepared to tolerate a further increase in the investment rate, achieving a GDP growth target of 7.5% implies a significant fall in the growth rate of investment. To compensate for the negative impact on GDP growth, and with export growth constrained by weak global demand, consumption must rise even more sharply, which is hard to imagine.
无需复杂的计算就可以得出，除非政府已做好了忍受投资率进一步攀升的准备，否则达到GDP增长7.5%的目标意味着投资增长率的大幅下降。为了补偿由此产生的对GDP增长的不利冲击，在出口增长仍受全球需求萎靡约束的情况下，消费必须出现迅速增加，而这一点很难实现。换句话说，降低GDP增长率至7.5%而又不让中国增长模式更加非理性是一个不可能完成的任务。