But the track record of charting this recovery has been discouraging. In his book The Signal and the Noise, the American statistician Nate Silver says that forecasters perform worst when faced with a circumstance that they have not encountered before.
经济预测家仍然认为增长会重振。他们告诉我们，事情将在2013年下半年好转。但此次复苏的历史记录令人沮丧。美国统计学家奈特·希尔沃（Nate Silver）在其著作《信号与噪音》（The Signal and the Noise）中指出，在面临此前未遇到过的环境时，预测表现会变差。现在的环境就属于从未遇到过的范畴。