All of these challenges have led former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and his Harvard colleague Lant Pritchett to argue that China’s growth could slow to 2-4% over the next two decades, as the country succumbs to the historically prevalent growth pattern implied by “regression to the mean.” But, given that China’s growth pattern has, so far, been exceptional, the notion that it will suddenly start following a common trajectory seems unlikely.
所有这些挑战让美国财政部前部长劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）及其哈佛大学同时兰特·普利切特（Lant Pritchett）认为，根据“回归均值”理论所隐含的历史增长模式，中国增长在未来二十年可能下降至2—4%。但是，到目前为止，中国的增长模式一直是“不走寻常路”，因此它一夜之间回归常规轨道似乎也不太可能。