A formal recession, however, is not an overwhelming probability, and is likely to be small. The prospect of a truly hard landing – that global investors wake up one morning, suddenly recognize the US current account’s cannot be sustained, dump dollars, and bring about a crash of the global economy – is becoming less likely with each passing day.
是的，美国可能会出现一次低强度的经济衰退—发生的几率大约是50%。是的，美国的衰退可能会波及到世界其他地方，造成世界性的经济衰退。是的，全球经济在未来五年的增长率可能难以保持在过去五年里的水平。而出现真正硬着陆的可能性—全球的投资者在某一天早晨突然醒悟，发现美国的经常账目难以为继，抛售美元，从而引发全球经济的崩溃—正随着时间的推移而变得越来越小。