Moreover, we are now experiencing a fundamental change in expectations about oil prices: not only are today’s prices quite high in real terms by historical standards, but the futures markets indicate that prices are expected to remain high for years to come. In contrast, real oil prices were flat leading up to 1929, and down nearly 50% in real terms from the 1925-6 “fuel folly” peaks.
不仅如此，我们对石油价格的预期也在发生着根本的变化：不仅今天的油价与历史标准相比确实处于高位，而且期货市场表明石油价格在今后几年内都会居高不下。恰恰相反，实际油价在1929年之前几年波动不大，与1925到26年的“燃料危机”的高峰时期相比反而降低了近50%。