Nonetheless, though predictions that China would abandon its exchange-rate controls in order to uphold monetary autonomy have proved wrong over the last decade, this time may be different. With China’s liberalization of interest rates and short-term capital flows making it increasingly difficult for the country to juggle Mundell’s “irreconcilable trinity,” one hopes that Chinese leaders will finally allow the renminbi to float, while keeping in place existing capital controls.
即便如此，虽然中国将放弃其汇率管制以提升货币自主性的预测在过去十年内都被证伪，但这此情况可能有所不同。随着中国放宽利率和短期资本流动，该国也日渐难以反抗蒙代尔的“无可调和三角定律”，希望中国领导人最终能在维持现有资本管制的情况下，允许人民币自由浮动。