Second, while the succession arrangement that the Castros designed years ago has the advantage of stability and predictability, Raúl will be unable to replace the old guard with younger leaders (his successor in the Armed Forces is 72 and his vice-president is 77). Doing so would give whomever he chooses an edge when Raúl, who is 76, passes on, and he and Fidel do not necessarily agree on who should come next.
第二，尽管卡斯特罗兄弟多年以前设计的继任安排有着稳定和可以预见的优势，劳尔却无法做到用年轻的领导人来接替老兵（他在军队中的继承人已经72岁，而他的副总统则已77岁高龄）。当76岁的劳尔去世时，这样做会让他选中的任何人获得优势，而他和菲德尔却并不一定能在由谁接任的问题上达成一致。