The Secular Stagnation Hypothesis accounts well for the mistakes made in the eurozone in the aftermath of the global recession, when sovereigns attempted to deleverage while companies and households were unwilling to spend, and the ECB was keeping monetary policy relatively tight. The BIS’s explanation reads like a summary of the woes of China, where growth has slowed from 10% to 7% or less, but the authorities still push investment amounting to almost half of GDP and promote all sorts of low-return projects.
长期停滞假说很好地考察了欧元区在全球衰退后所犯的错误——主权实体试图去杠杆，公司和家庭不愿支出，欧洲央行则保持相对较紧的货币政策。BIS的解释就像是对中国问题的总结——中国增长从10%放缓到7%，但当局仍保持投资占GDP的近半壁江山并推进各种低回报项目。