If it loosens monetary policy further – by, say, cutting banks’ reserve requirement ratio – the momentum for restructuring could be lost; and there is no guarantee that the additional liquidity would flow into the real sector. But if the PBOC refuses to budge, the combination of high interest rates and slow growth may send the economy into a tailspin.
情况或许并不悲观，但也远远称不上理想——特别是在中国当局正在追求结构性改革时。人行目前面临着两难。如果继续宽松货币——比如降低银行准备金要求——重组就可能失去动力；新增流动性也不一定必然会流向实体部门。但如果人行不动摇，高利率和慢增长的合力或将导致经济陷入混乱。