This would mean a depression not just for the US, but for Asia and probably Europe as well, for the US can remain the world’s importer of last resort and guarantor of effective demand only as long as its domestic consumption is strong. But if interest rates don’t rise far enough, the value of the dollar will spiral downward and US inflation will spiral upward like in the 1970’s, setting the stage for the type of extremely painful measures imposed by then Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.
这将会意味着经济萧条的出现，不仅在美国，还会在亚洲甚至欧洲。因为美国只有在国内消费强劲的情况下，才能够保持其世界终极进口国和有效需求保证国的地位。但如果利率的提升不到位，美元的价值就会螺旋式下跌，而通货膨胀则会螺旋式上升，就像70年代那样。这样的情况一旦发生就会为实施前美联储主席保罗·沃尔克曾采用过的那种极端痛苦的措施创造条件。