As it stands, the Chinese government is keen to maintain decent growth of about 7% annually while pushing for rebalancing and reform. The risk is that, until reform measures take effect, the authorities may rely on short-term stimulus to meet growth targets, aggravating resource misallocation and structural vulnerabilities.
中国之谜的最后一块拼图是现实主义。目前，中国政府急切地要保持每年7%的漂亮增长数字，同时又要推进再平衡和改革。风险在于，在改革措施起效前，当局仍可能需要依赖短期刺激以实现增长目标，从而加剧资源配置不当和结构性弱点。考虑到去年中国总债务水平已达GDP的282%——已经超过了美国——影子银行部门继续鲁莽地向地方政府和民营企业借贷可能给经济带来金融危机的危险。