In short, as long as China’s government is not so unnerved by the slowdown in output growth that it changes its current policy stance, the current-account surplus is more likely to continue to fall relative to GDP than it is to rebound in 2013 and thereafter. In fact, such an outcome is not only likely, but also desirable.
简言之，只要中国政府不为产出增长放缓而匆忙改变当前的政策立场，其经常账户盈余在2013年及以后将更有可能相对GDP继续下跌，而不是反弹。事实上，这种结果不光是有可能的，也是令人满意的。毕竟，面对“无穷无尽的量化宽松”，作为一个纯债权大国意味着在当今全球经济中处于最不利的位置。