Based on current policies, the government forecasts that Medicare spending per beneficiary will grow at an average annual rate of 4.3% and will rise to 6.7% of GDP over the next 75 years. If, instead, Medicare spending per beneficiary grew by only 3.6% a year, the average rate of the last five years, Medicare’s share of GDP would remain unchanged.
2011年，医疗保险支出占GDP的3.7%。基于当前政策，政府预测，在未来75年中，医疗保险覆盖者人均支出平均年增长率为4.3%，占GDP比重将升至6.7%。但是，如果医疗保险覆盖者人均支出增长只有每年3.6%——即过去五年的平均值——医疗保险占GDP的比重将维持不变。这将让财政缺口——广泛使用的长期预算失衡指标——缩小近三分之一。