But those historical rates prevailed at times when fiscal deficits and federal government debt were much lower than they are today. With budget deficits that are projected to be 5% of GDP by the end of the coming decade, and a debt/GDP ratio that has roughly doubled in the past five years and is continuing to grow, the real interest rate on Treasuries should be significantly higher than it was in the past.
从历史上看，十年期美国国债的实际利率一直高于2%；因此，眼下约2%的利率低于历史平均水平。但历史利率是在财政赤字和联邦政府债务远比今天低的时期录得的。再过十年，预算赤字预计将达GDP的5%，而债务/GDP比率在过去五年中翻了一番且将继续上升，因此美国国债实际利率应该远比过去高。