The Fed will almost certainly start raising rates in December, but monetary tightening will be much slower than in previous economic cycles, and it will be motivated by concerns about financial stability, not inflation. As a result, fears – bordering on panic in some emerging markets – about the impact of Fed tightening on global economic conditions will probably prove unjustified.
这并不意味着永远实施接近零的美元利率。美联储几乎肯定会在12月开始加息，但货币紧缩会比以往的经济周期要慢得多，主要动机也将是金融稳定而非通胀。这样一来，围绕在一些新兴市场对美联储政策收紧对全球经济形势影响的恐慌状况的担忧，可能会证明是站不住脚的。