In the first, the region risks a cycle of weak growth, retreat from market-oriented policies, and increasing disillusionment. As a result, convergence with Western Europe could slow, with many countries lagging far behind – a far different outcome from that envisioned during the boom of the mid-2000s, when convergence within a generation seemed almost like a birthright.
放眼未来，我们可以看到两种总体前景。第一种，该地区面临增长萎靡周期，市场政策出现呢倒退，幻想日益破灭。结果，与西欧的趋同之路有所放缓，许多国家将远远落后——这一结果与2005年左右时所构想的愿景截然不同，当时，在一代人的时间里实现趋同看起来大有希望。