To be sure, recent research suggests that increased government spending can be effective in temporarily raising output and employment during deep, long-lasting recessions when the central bank has reduced its short-term policy interest rate to zero. But the same research suggests that the government spending multiplier is likely to be small or even negative in a variety of circumstances and, in any event, would quickly shrink.
诚然，最新的研究表明，当经济陷入长期深度衰退，而央行已将短期政策利率降至零水平时，增加政府支出能有效地暂时增加产出和就业。但同样的研究还表明，在很多环境下，政府支出乘数很小甚至为负，而且在任何情况下都会迅速衰减。