Many economists outside of China have argued that the December depreciation resulted from betting by investors that Chinese policymakers, facing the prospect of a hard landing for the economy, would slow or halt currency appreciation. But if that were true, we would now be seeing significant long-term capital outflows and heavy selling of RMB for dollars in China’s foreign-exchange market.
许多外部经济学家指出，12月贬值的原因是投资者认为中国决策者在面临经济硬着陆的前景时，将延缓甚至叫停人民币的升值。但如果这种观点正确，那么我们现在应该看到大量长期资本流出以及中国外汇市场上出现大量抛售人民币换取美元的现象。