What would most benefit commercial banks is not an immediate increase in interest rates, but a monetary policy that contributes to ensuring that the economy is capable of supporting higher interest rates in the future. If history is any guide, tightening monetary policy in the near term will only lead to further economic turbulence, followed by a rapid retreat to low interest rates.
果真如此的话，这将反映出银行家没有理解银行业的实质利益（material interest）。让商业银行获益最大的不是立即提高利率，而是有利于确保经济能够支持未来更高利率的货币政策。如果历史能够作为指引，那么在短期内收紧货币政策只能导致更多的经济动荡，然后是迅速回归低利率。升息之路应该引起所有人的警觉。