The collapse in imports suffered by bailed-out countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain – was entirely predictable, given how sharply their economies declined. But few economists expected that these countries’ exports would improve as quickly as they did, especially in a subdued international environment.
令人惊奇之处在于欧盟盈余的持续增长。被援助国（希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙）的进口暴跌是完全可以预料的，因为这些国家的经济出现了严重衰退。但很少有经济学家预期到这些国家的出口能改善得如此之快，特别是在考虑到国际环境不利的情况下。尽管德国经常项目盈余还在2007年的水平，但援助受益国加上意大利（它也是贸易局面改变的一部分）的总外部余额从危机前的3,000多亿美元赤字变为今年的（预期）6,000亿美元左右盈余。