CAMBRIDGE – When the United States’ current account fell into deficit in 1982, the US Council of Economic Advisers accurately predicted record deficits for years to come, owing to budget deficits, a low national saving rate, and an overvalued dollar. If the US did not adjust, knowledgeable forecasters intoned, it would go from being the world’s largest creditor to its largest debtor.
美国剑桥—1982年，当美国经常项目陷入赤字时，美国经济顾问委员会（US Council of Economic Advisers）准确地预测出多年后创纪录的赤字，经常项目赤字的原因包括预算赤字、低国民储蓄率和美元高估。学富五车的预测者指出，如果美国不调整，它将从世界最大债权国变为最大债务国。我们中有许多人担心这些失衡不可持续，有可能以美元的“硬着陆”告终——如果全球投资者不再愿意持有美元的话。