Stocks-to-use ratios are a primary driver of commodity prices, because they give us an indication of the cushion that we have for shortfalls somewhere in the world. The ratio tells us essentially how many months of stocks we have, and today they are around 15% for some key commodities – meaning two months of stocks.
即便今年的全球粮食生产维持正常，我们依旧会在年末面对历史上最低的库存使用比率。这一比率是商品价格的主要驱动因素，因为它显示出如果在全球某处出现短缺的话我们究竟能有多大的缓冲能力，并告诉我们究竟还剩下能维持多少个月的库存，而如今某些关键商品的比率为15%——意味着我们只有两个月的库存。