Third, geopolitical and political tensions are more likely to trigger global contagion when a systemic factor shaping the global economy comes into play. For example, the mini-perfect storm that roiled emerging markets earlier this year – even spilling over for a while to advanced economies – occurred when political turbulence in a few countries (Turkey, Thailand, and Argentina) met bad news about Chinese growth.
第三，如果决定全球经济的系统性因素发生作用，那么地缘政治和政治紧张就更有可能引起全球传染。比如，今年早些时候就发生了席卷新兴市场、甚至一度蔓延到经济体的迷你完美风暴。当时，一些国家的政治动荡（土耳其、泰国和阿根廷）和关于中国增长的坏消息形成了共振。具有系统重要性的中国成为点燃地区和地方不确定性火药桶的火柴。