Even if China suffers no major domestic political setback, many current projections based on GDP growth alone are too one-dimensional: they ignore US military and soft-power advantages, as well as China’s geopolitical disadvantages in the internal Asian balance of power. My own estimate is that among the range of possible futures, the more likely scenarios are those in which China gives the US a run for its money, but does not surpass it in overall power in the first half of this century.
即使排除中国发生任何重大政治动荡的可能性，当前许多基于GDP增长的预测依然是过于狭隘的：他们忽视了美国的军事以及软实力优势，以及中国在亚洲内部实力平衡方面所面临的地理劣势。逼着本人的预测则是在本世纪上半叶，最可能出现的情景是中国在财富方面超过美国，但却在总体实力上屈身于美国之下。