Had Greece defaulted on its debt in 2010, imposing the same “haircut” on private creditors as it has imposed now, it would have reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio to a more manageable 80%. That would have been painful, but it could have spared the Greeks from a 7% decline in GDP and a rise in unemployment to 22% (including an increase in youth unemployment to a whopping 48%).
但是，虽然私营部门的损失已降到最低，但这样做的代价是什么？要是希腊在2010年就违约，如同现在一样对私人债权人实行扣减，它可能已经把债务和GDP的比率降低到更易于管理的80%了。这样可能很残酷，但是它可以让希腊人免于遭受国内生产总值7%的下降以及上升至22%的失业率（包括高达48％的青年失业率的增加）。