But the fourth explanation seems the simplest: America’s dysfunctional fiscal politics in 2011-2013 – years that featured the “fiscal cliff,” debt-ceiling standoffs, flirtation with federal default, a government shutdown, and budget sequesters. One does not need to assume big Keynesian “multiplier effects” to conclude that the combined impact of these conflicts shaved at least one percentage point from growth each year, especially if one believes that the risk created by such behavior discourages firms from hiring or investing.
但最简单的解释还是第四种：2011—2013年间美国混乱不堪的财政政治——“财政悬崖”、债务上限僵局、联邦违约闹剧、政府关门、自动减赤等事件层出不穷。你不必假设存在巨大的凯恩斯主义“乘数效应”就能看出，这些冲突的合力每年至少拖累了一个百分点的增长，特别是如果你认为这一模式让企业不愿雇人和投资的话。（根据一项指标，2011年债务上限危机和2013年政府关门所导致的不确定性可以与2001年9月恐怖袭击和2008年雷曼兄弟公司倒闭相提并论。）