Barring a disorderly breakup of the eurozone, which seems unlikely, the International Monetary Fund’s baseline forecast of 4% annual growth in world trade for 2012 seems reasonable. That would be subpar relative to the 6.4% growth trend from 1994 to 2011, but nowhere near the collapse recorded during 2008-2009.
在排除了欧元区发生无序解体的情形后（可能性极低），IMF对2012年全球贸易的基线预测是全年增长4%，这一预测颇为合理。该数字要低于1994—2011年间的趋势增长率6.4%，但仍比2008—2009年的崩盘水平高出不少。而中国经济对出口导向部门危险的抵御力远高于两三年前，因此硬着陆不会发生。