Given that property prices are unlikely to fall by such a large margin, the bubble’s collapse would not bring down China’s banks. Even if real-estate prices fell by more than 50%, commercial banks could survive – not least because mortgages account for only about 20% of banks’ total assets.
不妨假设房地产泡沫已经破裂。中国不存在次贷，要获得按揭，首付比例可能超过50%。给定房地产价格难以出现如此大幅的下跌，则泡沫的破裂拖不垮中资银行。即使房地产价格下跌超过50%，商业银行也可以存活下来——次贷仅占银行总资产的20%左右。