Likewise, Iraq could return to center stage if the positive momentum of recent months were suddenly reversed, perhaps following a new outbreak of violence between the country’s Sunnis and Shia. The US and Iran could go to war not over nuclear issues but because of reckless behavior by the Revolutionary Guards (as occurred recently in the Strait of Hormuz), with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad possibly seeking to provoke a crisis in order to distract domestic attention from his economic failures.
同样地，如果近几个月伊拉克好转的形势发生突然的倒转，比如这个国家的逊尼派和什叶派爆发新一轮的暴力冲突，那么伊拉克问题就会重新回到人们视野的中心。美国和伊朗也许会走向战争，不是因为核问题，而是因为国民卫队的鲁莽行为（就像最近在霍尔姆兹湾发生的事件），以及伊朗总统内贾德可能会寻求挑起危机以分散国内对于他在经济问题上的失败的注意力。巴基斯坦国内的秩序可能会遭到无法挽回的破坏。一次恐怖袭击可能会提醒美国人他们在本质上的脆弱性。这里存在着种种的可能性。