CAMBRIDGE – For the past six years, I have been skeptical about the standard optimistic forecasts of the pace of US economic growth in the year ahead. Where most forecasters and policy officials saw green shoots and reasons for confidence, I saw strong headwinds that would cause an economic downturn and then a subpar recovery.
发自剑桥——在过去的六年中，我一直对那些对下一年美国经济增速持续乐观的预测持怀疑态度。当大多数预测者和政策官员看到复苏的苗头和信心依据之时，我却看到了会令经济衰退并随之导致复苏疲软的强大阻力。