As one of my predecessors as Chairman of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers famously put it, “that which is not sustainable will not be sustained.” Economists, as opposed to those who make their living gambling on stocks, make no claim to being able to predict when the day of reckoning will come, much less identifying the event that will bring down the house of cards.
作为美国总统经济顾问委员会主席，我的一位前任曾有一句名言：“不可持续的东西是不会受到支撑的。”相对于那些靠在股市搏杀为生的人，经济学家们从未声称能预测清算日何时到来，更别说确认什么事件会令房产市场崩盘。但有些征兆是系统的，其后果也随着时间的推移逐渐而痛苦地显露出来。