The economy is contracting so much that the debt/GDP ratio is actually increasing, and the actual deficit is improving only marginally, because government revenues are falling along with GDP. But a side effect of the fall in GDP is a strong decline in imports – and thus a strong improvement in the current account, which is why the risk premium continues to fall, despite the political turmoil unleashed by the country’s inconclusive recent election.
意大利的经验是具有启迪性的：2012年前总理马里奥·蒙蒂（Mario Monti）技术官僚政府实施的大幅度税收增加对需求的影响超过了预期水平。经济水平收缩得很厉害，以致债务对GDP比率仍然在上升——而实际赤字只是略微提高，因为政府收入跟GDP一起不断下降。但GDP下降的副作用是进口大幅度下降——从而使得经常帐户收支平衡水平得到改善，所以尽管该国近期的无成果选举引发了政治动荡，其溢价水平却仍在继续下降。