Second, markets could be incorrect in their assessment that conflicts like that between Russia and Ukraine, or Syria’s civil war, will not escalate or spread. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy may become more aggressive in response to challenges to his power at home, while Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are all being destabilized by Syria’s ongoing meltdown.
其次，市场可能对俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突或叙利亚内战等冲突存在误判，错误地认为它们不会升级或蔓延。为了应对国内权力挑战，俄罗斯总统普京的外交政策可能变得更加激进，而约旦、黎巴嫩和土耳其都因为叙利亚的崩溃而正在受到冲击。