For Robert Gordon of Northwestern University, information and communication technologies have already delivered most of the productivity boost that can be expected from them; there is no major innovation wave in sight that could offset the slowdown in potential growth. Laggards can look forward to reaping catch-up dividends; but countries at the technology frontier should accept that very slow annual per capita growth – little more than 1% – is the new normal.
供给端的挑战来自经济学家和技术专家关于技术进步速度的新争论。西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）指出，信息和通信技术已经贡献了绝大部分可以期待的生产率提升效应；放眼未来，已不再能够看到可以抵消潜在增长放缓的较大的创新潮。落后者可以着眼于收获赶超红利；但身处技术前沿的国家应该接受缓慢的人均年增长——可能不到1%——成为新常态。