With its population set to contract by 0.5% annually over the next 30 years, even if per capita income in Greece were to rise at the German rate of 1.5% per year, the debt would be difficult to service. Assuming that Greece could borrow at a real interest rate of only 3% (the current level is 17%), the government would need to run an annual 2.6%-of-GDP primary budget surplus (the fiscal balance minus debt-service costs) for the next 30 years just to keep the debt burden stable.
然而，就是这种削弱的级别还是不可持续。未来30年，由于每年0.5%的人口递减率，即便希腊人均收入以德国1.5%的水平增长，债务仍将难以偿还。假设希腊借款的实际利率仅为3%（目前的利率为17%），未来30年内，政府将需要达成每年2.6%的GDP初级预算盈余（财政结余减去债务服务费用）才能勉强稳定债务负担。