The first account relied on the view, most closely associated with the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, that recovery from a recession takes longer if the cause was a crash in housing and financial markets. But this historical pattern is more a statement about the magnitude of the initial decline and the time needed to recover fully than a prediction about the annual rate of growth during the recovery phase.
第一种解释的观点主要与经济学家卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）有关。这一解释认为如果衰退原因是房地产和金融市场崩盘，那么从衰退中复苏就需要花更长时间。但这一历史模式更多是关于初始下跌程度和充分复苏所需时间的描述，而不是关于复苏阶段年增长率的预测。