In 2011, after both prices had recovered from the collapse induced by the 2008 credit crisis, the five-year price started to come down gradually, while the spot price continued to surge for a while. This jibed with what I had identified as two big factors fundamentally driving the price of oil: the early days of the exploitation of shale oil and gas in the United States, and the shift in China’s economic focus from quantity to quality, which implied that the Chinese economy would no longer be consuming energy at the frenetic rate it had been.
2011年，在上述两个价格已经从2008年的信贷危机引起的崩溃中恢复过来后，现货价格继续飙升了一段时间，而五年远期价格逐渐开始回落。这个转向伴随着我认为的从根本上推动石油价格的两大因素：早期美国的页岩油气开发，以及中国经济重点从数量转向质量，这意味着中国经济将不再以疯狂的速度消耗能源。