The negative impact of the fall in real-estate investment since 2010 has been deeper and longer than expected; indeed, almost all categories of imports that fell by 10% or more in August were related to real-estate investment. As a result, it is possible that the fall in investment growth will reverse the declining external surplus/GDP ratio in 2012, unless the global economy deteriorates further and/or the Chinese government launches a new stimulus package.
此状况有可能在2012年有所改变。2010年以来房地产投资减少带来的负面影响比预期深远。事实的确如此，几乎所有在8月下跌超过10%的各类进口项目都与房地产投资有关。因此，投资增长下滑可能会在2012年扭转下跌的外部盈余对GDP比率，要想此情况不发生，除非全球经济进一步恶化同时/或者中国政府采取新一轮刺激方案。