An even more spectacular example of a statistical error and sleight of hand is the widely cited claim of Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff that countries’ growth slows sharply if their debt/GDP ratio exceeds 90%. This finding reflected the massive overweighting of one country in their sample, and there was the same confusion between correlation and causation seen in Alesina’s work: high debt levels may cause a lack of growth, or a lack of growth may cause high debt levels.
而统计方法错误和捏造事实的更惊人例子是哈佛经济学家卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）最为广泛引用的断言——如果一国债务对GDP比率超过90%，其经济增长会大幅度放缓。这个结论反映了他们加重了一国在其所有调查国家的比重，同时还有混淆相关性和因果性的错误（在阿尔塞纳的论文中也是如此）：高债务水平也许会导致经济增长停滞，或经济增长停滞会导致高的债务水平。