On top of already modest inflation expectations – characterized by a five-year break-even inflation rate of 1.9% – the dollar has appreciated by around 10% this year, and by almost 25% since the beginning of last year. Given the deflationary impact of a stronger currency – and the Fed’s general intolerance of deflation – there is good reason to believe that the Fed will exercise caution in raising interest rates.
在已算温和的通胀预期之外—以五年相对通胀率1.9％为标志—今年美元汇率已经升值了10％左右，去年至今涨了近25%。考虑到更强势货币所带来的通货紧缩影响—美联储一般不会容忍通缩—有充分的理由相信，美联储将再加息上保持谨慎。