Until recently, the OBR, broadly in line with the IMF, assumed a fiscal multiplier of 0.6: for every dollar cut from government spending, the economy would shrink by only 60 cents. This assumes “Ricardian equivalence”: debt-financed public spending at least partly crowds out private spending through its impact on expectations and confidence.
直到最近，预算责任办公室——大致与国际货币基金组织一样——都依然采用0.6的财政乘数：也就是政府每减少一美元的支出，经济只会收缩60美分。这就假定了“李嘉图等价定理”：举债融资的公共支出通过对预期和信心的影响至少会在某种程度上挤压私人消费。如果家庭和公司预期到由于政府借款而导致未来增税的话，他们就将减少相应的消费和投资。