True, China’s economy is now growing robustly and is not likely to face actual deflation anytime soon, but if China does fall into a zero-interest rate trap, the PBC, like the BOJ, would be unable to offset deflationary pressure in the event of a large exchange-rate appreciation. With short-term interest rates locked at zero, pressure for further appreciation would leave the PBC helpless to re-expand the economy.
当然，这样的手段是一种不幸的舍近求远。诚然，中国经济现在正稳健地增长，并且在短期内不太会遭遇实际的通货紧缩。但如果中国真地陷入了零利率陷阱，那么中国人民银行和日本银行一样，将不能在汇率大幅升值的情况下抵消通缩压力。由于短期利率锁定为零，进一步升值的压力将使中国人民银行无法再扩大经济规模。