Given the current expected inflation rate of 2%, the real rate on ten-year bonds is still less than 1%. Past experience implies that the real rate will rise to at least 2%, taking the total nominal interest rate to more than 4%, even if expected inflation remains at just 2%.
但未来如何？当前长期利率的上升只是涨势的开端，下注于长期债券寻求超额收益率的投资者将受到惩罚。由于目前通胀预期为2%，因此十年期债券的真实利率仍然低于1%。过去的经验表明，真实率将至少升至2%，即使通胀预期继续维持在2%，总名义利率也将升至4%以上。