On the downside, one of the most important risks is further financial contagion in Europe if the eurozone’s problems spread – as seems likely – to Portugal, Spain, and Belgium. Given the current level of official resources at the disposal of the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, Spain now seems too big to fail yet too big to be bailed out.
而在这种情况中，下行风险和上升机遇是同时存在的。在下行风险方面，其中一个最严峻的问题就是如果欧元区的问题向葡萄牙，西班牙和比利时蔓延（这种可能性极大），欧洲国家的财政危机将进一步恶化。考虑到国际货币基金组织以及欧盟当前掌握的官方资源总量，他们一方面无法承受西班牙财政崩溃的后果，另一方面却又无力拯救如此庞大的一个国家。