The irrationally exuberant were not thinking of the returns they would garner if the authorities intervened to maintain the economy and the flow of credit (or, in extreme cases, moved to bail out their bank or enterprise). Such possibilities were a marginal consideration in the euphoria preceding the 2007-2009 crisis: those selling at inflated prices were making profits; and buyers “knew” they were doing the right thing – even when they weren’t.
相反，我们的观点（在大量数据支持下）认为价格的快速上升通常意味着非理性繁荣，而且是由钓鱼行为所助力和唆使的。非理性繁荣的参与者根本没想过如果当局出手维持经济以及信贷流（或者在极端情况下援助银行或者企业）后自己收回多少。这样的可能性在2007~2009年间那种极度兴奋的情绪下被抛到了一边：那些高价卖出者确实赚到了钱；而接盘者则“知道”自己在做正确的事——即便他们根本是错的。