Rating agencies would consider this debt exchange a “credit event,” but only for a very short period – a matter of a few weeks. Consider Uruguay, whose rating was downgraded to “selective default” for two weeks while the exchange was occurring, and then was upgraded (though not to investment grade) when, thanks to the exchange’s success, its public debt became more sustainable.
评级机构可能会把这种债务互换视作“信贷事件”，但只会持续很短时间，不过几周而已。想一想乌拉圭当年搞互换时，曾有两周被降级为“选择性违约”，后来又升级了（虽然未达投资级），恰恰是互换的成功，令其公债变得可持续了。希腊临时降级两三周，欧洲央行和其他的债权银行不会受不了。