For these reasons, I take a more moderate view, predicting that China’s average potential GDP growth will fall to 5-6% by 2030. This expectation is based on a conditional convergence framework that relies on data generated by China’s unique growth experience, as well as those of other economies, over the last three decades.
出于这些原因，我提出一个较为中庸的观点。我预测，到2030年，中国平均潜在GDP增长率将下降至5—6%。这一预期基于一个条件趋同框架，而该框架又基于过去三十年中国独特的增长经验以及其他经济体的增长经验所产生的数据。