If the journey to the crossroads is accelerated by a large geopolitical shock (originating in, say, the Middle East or North Korea) and/or a serious political breakdown in Europe (for example, a meltdown in Cyprus or prolonged political paralysis in Italy), the probability of taking the adverse path rises to an uncomfortably high level. If, however, central banks can contain domestic and global inconsistencies long enough, the combination of endogenous healing and eventual political progress would significantly improve the probability distribution.
在这样的条件下，时机或许不是万能的，但将是可能性的关键决定因素。如果走向十字路口的进程因重大地缘政治冲突（比如来自中东或朝鲜）和/或严重政治分裂（如塞浦路斯崩溃或意大利政治僵局迟迟得不到解决）而加速，那么走上死路的可能性就会大大增加。但是，如果央行能够在足够长的时间里遏制国内和全球性矛盾，那么内生恢复和最终的政治进步将大大改善概率分布。