Many factors other than exchange rates affect a country’s trade balance. A key determinant is national savings. America’s multilateral trade deficit will not be significantly narrowed until America saves significantly more; while the Great Recession induced higher household savings (which were near zero), this has been more than offset by the increased government deficits.
在一个需求总量不足的全球经济中，经常账户盈余是一个麻烦。但事实上，中国的经常账户盈余小于日本和德国叠加的数字；从比例上看，中国的经常账户盈余占国民生产总值的5%，而德国的比例是5.2%。除了汇率以外，影响一个国家贸易平衡的因素还有很多。一个关键的决定因素是国民储蓄。如果美国人不大幅增加储蓄的话，美国的多边贸易逆差将不能大幅减少；尽管大萧条使居民储蓄有所增加（在那之前，居民储蓄率接近零），但是它被膨胀的政府赤字轻易抵消了。