The net result in the first half of this year – an average decline of 0.3% – is broadly in line with the 0.2% contraction now estimated for the fourth quarter of 2013. With the trajectory of real (inflation-adjusted) growth having moved into negative territory, on average, for three consecutive quarters, Japan may once again be reverting to recessionary form.
日本的问题甚至更加严重，消费者因为预计销售税将有所提高而扩大了支出。这使得一季度经济大幅增长了6.1%，但二季度却出现了6.8%的收缩，将一季度的涨幅吞噬殆尽。净结果是今年上半年平均衰退0.3%，与目前所估算的2013年一季度水平——收缩0.2%基本一致。平均实际（经通胀调整的）增长趋势已经连续三季度落入负值区间，日本可能再一次陷入衰退深渊。