Creating an independent fiscal institution that provides its own budget forecasts works, insofar as it reduces the bias in deficit projections. When forecasting while in violation of the eurozone’s Excessive Deficit Procedure, eurozone members with an independent budget-forecasting institution have a mean bias that is 2.7% of GDP smaller at the one-year horizon than members without such an institution.
创建一个能自行做出预算预测的独立财政机构是可行的，因为它减少了赤字预算的偏差。当预测违反了欧元区的过度赤字程序机制时，拥有独立预算预测机构的欧元区成员国的一年期平均偏差比没有这类机构的成员国要小，且小于的幅度达到GDP的2.7%。