As China increases its consumption, it will not necessarily buy more goods from the United States. In fact, it is more likely to increase consumption of non-traded goods – like health care and education – resulting in profound disturbances to the global supply chain, especially in countries that had been supplying the inputs to China’s manufacturing exporters.
如果不增加国内储蓄，并对全球货币安排实施更加根本性的改革，美国的总体贸易逆差就不会消失。然而前者会加剧美国经济的放缓，而且这两种变革似乎都遥遥无期。随着中国不断提高其消费，它不一定会购买更多来自美国的商品。事实上，中国很有可能增加其非贸易商品的消费——比如医疗和教育——这将对全球供应链造成深刻的扰乱性影响，尤其会影响到那些过去一直为中国制造业出口商提供输入产品的国家。