That is, China’s annual GDP growth rate would drop by four percentage points if its exports did not grow at all. In addition, a study by the China Center for Economic Research has found that a 20% appreciation against the dollar would entail a 3% drop in employment – more than 20 million jobs.
但这样的动作对中国经济来说不啻自杀。从2001年到2008年，出口增长要占中国总体经济增长的40%强。也就是说，如果出口增长被完全消除，那么中国的GDP年增长率将下降4个百分点。此外，中国经济研究中心的研究表明，人民币对美元升值20%将导致就业人口下降3%，相当于2000万人。