Professional forecasters are considerably more sanguine, with the consensus forecast for US growth in 2009 at around -1.5%, after a similar contraction in the second half of 2008. This would be a painful recession, but far short of the 10-15% output drop normally associated with a full-blown depression.
在2008年下半年美国经济出现大约1.5%的收缩之后，舆论预计2009年还将出现同样的负增长。而专业人士的预测要乐观得多。这将是是痛苦的衰退，但还远不是彻头彻尾的经济萧条，后者的标准是产量下滑10%至15%。当然，经济预测人士在最近的每一个转折时刻总是过于乐观，所以可以理解大众对他们的预测持怀疑态度。