Although it is possible to argue about the precise appropriate level of the fed funds rate, the Fed’s own analysis points to a long-term rate of about 4% when the long-term inflation rate is 2%. The most recent value of the consumer price index was up 1.7% year on year, and the 12-month figure would have been even higher but for the anomalous decline in the most recent month.
联邦基金利率的准确合适水平或许有待争议，但美联储自身的分析表明，当长期利率在2%时，长期利率应在4%左右。最新的消费物价指数同比上涨1.7%，12个月数字应该还会更大，但其原因是最近一个月的异常下降。今年二季度，年化通胀率为4%。