According to official data, China’s old-age dependency ratio – the ratio of those aged 65 and up to working-age people (aged 15-64) – currently stands at 13%. As the one-child generation ages – adding some ten million retirees annually – this ratio will skyrocket, with the labor surplus that supported China’s economic miracle giving way to a severe shortage that depresses growth.
一胎政策的长期人口影响也是灾难性的。据官方数据，中国老龄赡养比——65岁及以上人群与工作年龄人口（15—64岁）之比——目前为13%。随着独生一代老龄化——每年将增加大约1,000万退休者——这一比例将会猛增，支持中国经济奇迹的劳动力剩余将变成遏制增长的严重短缺。