The OBR, reviewing its recent mistakes, accepted that “the average [fiscal] multiplier over the two years would have needed to be 1.3 – more than double our estimate – to fully explain the weak level of GDP in 2011-12.” The IMF has conceded that “multipliers have actually been in the 0.9 and 1.7 range since the Great Recession.”
预测机构最终承认他们低估了财政乘数。预算责任办公室回顾了其近期的错误，承认“这两年的平均财政乘数应该是1.3——比我们原来预测的两倍还要多——这才能解释2011到2012年GDP的疲弱水平。”国际货币基金组织已经承认“自从大萧条以来财政乘数实际上已经处于0.9到1.7之间的水平。”对财政乘数的低估已经导致了“财政巩固”对经济影响的系统性判断失误。