The first is America’s self-imposed fiscal cliff, which, if not avoided, could throw the United States into recession, with massive repercussions for the world economy, and thus for Europe. Second, a hot war in the Persian Gulf, in which Israel and/or the US confronts Iran over its nuclear program, would result in a sharp rise in global energy prices.
毫无疑问，欧盟需要内部改革，但在今年，两大外部政治因素对其前景也很关键。首先是美国自动触发的财政悬崖，如果不能避免，可能将美国再次拖入衰退，世界经济也将广受抑制，欧洲亦然。其次，波斯湾的热战——以色列和/或美国与伊朗因后者的核计划而产生冲突——可能导致全球能源价格飙升。