Although the Iranian government could most likely be deterred from using a nuclear weapon, the price of a nuclear Iran could well be a regional arms race – a nuclear Saudi Arabia, possibly followed by Turkey and Egypt. Nuclear weapons, components, and materials in a region that is already volatile and violent, and that determines the world’s oil prices, is an appalling scenario.
虽然伊朗政府在很大程度上都无法使用核武器，但一旦该国拥有核武，代价将是整个地区的军备竞赛——沙特可能进行核武装，随后则是土耳其和埃及。一个本已如此动荡并充满着暴力的区域中遍布核武器及其组件、材料，并左右着世界油价，这堪称一个骇人听闻的情景。市场也已经对上周的紧张局势做出的反应，某些石油合约价格已经飙升到了8个星期以来的最高位。