If this continued for a few years, a euro breakup would become possible without a meltdown, but it would leave the creditor countries with large claims against debtor countries, which would be difficult to collect. In addition to intergovernmental transfers and guarantees, the Bundesbank’s claims against peripheral countries’ central banks within the Target2 clearing system totaled €644 billion ($804 billion) on April 30, and the amount is growing exponentially, owing to capital flight.
如果这一趋势持续几年，欧元崩溃或许能够不引发灾难，但仍会让债权国拥有大量债务国债权，而债务国偿还起来困难重重。4月30日，除了政府间的转移和担保，德国央行在Target2清算系统中对外围国央行的总债权已高达6440亿欧元，且资本外逃的推动下，该数字还在以指数速度增长。