In fact, as psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky have shown, there is a systematic human tendency to downgrade the perceived probability of low-probability events, so that people go about their lives as if the probability of these events’ occurrence is zero. Similarly, humans tend to accept large downside risks in order to avoid small certain losses, such as insurance premiums.
造成这种情况的一个基本原因就是，保险是一个还未被广泛接受的理念。事实上，正如心理学家Daniel Kahneman和Amos Tversky说得那样，人类总是系统性地倾向于降低低概率事件的发生概率，于是乎他们就可若无其事地继续生活，宛若视此事件发生概率为零一样。同样道理，人们愿意为了避免某些小损失而接受正呈下降趋势的巨大风险，譬如保费。