There is a perennial temptation to focus on – even to overemphasize – the short-term, tactical drivers of commodity-price movements, at the expense of giving longer-term, structural factors their due. While short-term factors – for example, political instability, weather-related disruptions, and speculative activity – are important determinants of prices, they tell only part of the story.
人们总是倾向于关注——甚至过分强调——短期的、策略性的商品价格波动因素，而忽略长期的结构性因素。短期因素——如政治动荡、与气候有关的干扰和投机行为——虽然也是价格的重要决定因素，但只是部分因素。