With a war-exhausted US having run out of patience, outside forces are in no position to prevent Afghanistan’s partition along Iraqi (or even post-Yugoslav) lines, with the bloodiest battles expected to rage over control of ethnically mixed strategic areas, including Kabul. In this scenario, Pakistani generals, instead of continuing to sponsor Afghan Pashtun militant groups (like the Taliban and their allies like the Haqqani network), would be compelled to fend off a potentially grave threat to Pakistan’s unity.
随着厌战的美国逐渐失去耐心，外部势力已无法阻止阿富汗沿伊拉克（甚至后南斯拉夫）边境发生分裂，最血腥的战争可能出现在喀布尔等民族混居的战略地带。在这种情况下，巴基斯坦的将军们不仅不能继续资助阿富汗普什图族激进团体（比如塔利班及其盟友哈卡尼网络），反而可能被迫抵御严重威胁巴基斯坦团结的因素。