In the late 1950’s, after the Soviet Union launched the first spacecraft, eminent Western economists predicted that Soviet income would overtake that of the United States in a few decades. After all, the Soviet Union was investing close to 40% of its GDP, twice the ratio in the West.
基于短期趋势的长期预测通常是错误的。在20世纪50年代末，苏联发射了第一艘宇宙飞船后，西方经济学名家纷纷预测苏联收入在几十年内就能超过美国。毕竟，苏联将其GDP的近40%用于投资，这一比例是西方的两倍。