In 1988, just months before the election, Raymond Barre (a former Prime Minister) was the arch-favorite, but did not even qualify for the second-round run-off. A few weeks before the election in 1995, Jacques Chirac looked so weak that a journalist bluntly asked him on live TV whether it would not be better for him to give up.
而且，法国的民意调查是变化无常的征兆。自从1981年以来，民意调查的宠儿从未赢得总统宝座。根据民调，应当是德斯坦而非密特朗在1981年当选。1988年，在大选前几个月，前总理巴尔是大热门，但是连第二轮都没有进入。1995年选举前几个星期，希拉克看起来不堪一击，有的记者甚至在电视直播中直截了当地问他退出竞选是否更好。若斯潘在2002年被认为是唯一可能的胜利者，结果名列第三，排在希拉克和勒庞之后。