Indeed, these effects are likely to be larger than expected compared to conventional multiplier estimates, which rest on two assumptions: the economy is close to full employment; and the contraction in demand caused by a cut in government spending will be offset by a drop in interest rates. Neither assumption applies today.
事实上，与传统乘数估计相比，这些效应可能比预计的更大。传统乘数估计基于两个假设：经济接近充分就业、因政府支出削减导致的需求下降会被利率下降抵消。如今，这两个假设均不成立。