In the decades following World War II, the doctrine that inflation needed to be traded off against employment – based on the relationship that William Phillips described in 1958 – dominated economic thinking. But the Phillips curve fared poorly in the 1970’s, when many countries experienced “stagflation” (high levels of both inflation and unemployment).
第一个有益教训与预期有关。在二战结束后的几十年中，需要在通胀和就业之间进行权衡的思想——其基础是威廉·菲利普斯（William Phillips）1958年提出的关系——主宰着经济思想界。但菲利普斯曲线在20世纪70年代表现不佳，当时许多国家经历了“滞涨”（高通胀和高失业并存）。