In 2007, the economists Dwight Perkins and Thomas Rawski estimated that, in order for China’s economy to maintain a 9% growth rate and a 25-35% investment ratio until 2025, it would need to maintain an annual TFP growth rate of 4.3-4.8%. Given that China’s TFP growth has averaged 4% for more than 30 years, and is likely to slow in the coming decade, this scenario is improbable.
2007年，经济学家德怀特·珀金斯（Dwight Perkins）和托马斯·罗斯基（Thomas Rawski）估算，中国要想在2025年之前维持9%的增长率和25—35%的投资比率，需要将年TFP增长率保持在4.3—4.8%。三十多年来，中国TFP平均增长率为4%，并且可能在未来十年有所下降，因此这一情景可能无法实现。