Entrenched incumbent regimes everywhere are under severe stress from advances in information technology, shifts in demographics, rising expectations, and the obsolescence of Cold War exigencies. In the absence of a willingness and ability to use violent repression, regime survival can be achieved only through concessions, accommodation, and periodic reinvention.
发自曼谷——对那些关注中东北非政治动荡的人来说，7月3日泰国大选所产生的震撼结果仿佛似曾相识。随着信息技术进步、人口结构转换，人民期望上升以及冷战理念的逐渐淡化，世界上那些看似无法撼动的政权纷纷摇摇欲坠。同时由于本身不具备使用暴力镇压的意愿和能力，这些政权只能依靠妥协，调整和周期性重塑自身来赢得生存。