The risk of a global crash has been low, because deleveraging has proceeded apace in most advanced economies; the effects of fiscal drag are smaller; monetary policies remain accommodative; and asset reflation has had positive wealth effects. Moreover, many emerging-market countries are still growing robustly, maintain sound macroeconomic policies, and are starting to implement growth-enhancing structural reforms.
全球崩溃的风险很小，因为大部分发达经济体都在迅速去杠杆化；财政拖累的影响较小；货币政策仍然有利；资产再通胀也造成了积极的财富效应。此外，许多新兴市场国家仍在强健增长，保持着可靠的宏观经济政策，并开始实施强化增长的结构性改革。而美国的增长目前已超过潜在产出，至少在目前可以提供充分的全球支持。