The belief that the fiscal multiplier is usually low may have contributed to underestimation of the short-run economic costs of austerity policies – and thus to persistently optimistic forecasts of growth and employment. Recent research by the International Monetary Fund on the context-specific variability of fiscal multipliers has raised serious questions about the costs and effectiveness of rapid fiscal consolidation.
那种认为财政乘数通常很低这种观点也导致人们低估了财政紧缩政策的短期经济成本——从而促使人们坚持乐观地预测经济增长和就业前景。国际货币基金组织对特定情况下财政乘数可变性的近期研究已经对快速财政调整的成本和有效性提出了严重的质疑。