What is needed is not more sophisticated statistical methods, but serious historical analysis of the political and economic particulars of specific historical cases in which countries were burdened with heavy debts. A proper historical analysis would help to identify cases in which debt was incurred for reasons other than the state of the economy, so that causality arguably runs from debt to growth, rather than the other way around.
这些都是困难的问题，而解决方案却很简单的。我们所需要的并不是更复杂的统计方法，而是要认真分析那些高负债国家在特定历史事件中的政治和经济细节。一个适当的历史分析能帮助确认那些在经济因素之外发生债务的原因，从而得出债务与经济增长之间的因果关系，而不是颠倒过来。