In the case of violent suppression, the West will find it a lot harder to hold talks with Iran over its nuclear program, because the regime will be able to rely for its survival solely on isolation and confrontation with the outside world. Moreover, talks with the regime would give rise to substantial legitimacy problems in the West.
伊朗发生的选举欺诈在城市里引发了群众抗议运动，这将从根本上改变伊朗的国内局势，即使在现阶段这也是不言自明的事实。实际上伊朗政权或者借助暴力镇压抗议群众，并自此撕下民主合法性的伪装露出军事独裁的本来面目，若非如此，它将不可能降服颠覆性的民主妖怪，重新把它装回到瓶子里，伊朗也会慢慢走向开放和改革。如果发生暴力镇压事件，西方与伊朗的核问题谈判会遭遇更大的困难，因为与外界的隔离和对抗将成为伊朗政权赖以生存的基础。此外，与伊朗政权的谈判将在西方国家引发严重的合法性问题。