That will have ramifications in the post-authoritarian context. A study published by Columbia University on civil resistance has shown that the probability of a country relapsing into civil war following a successful anti-dictatorship armed campaign is 43%, versus 28% when the campaign is unarmed.
于是，为了取胜，利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲上校故意把一次民间抵抗运动演变为一次武装冲突。类似的武装冲突将在后独裁时期造成后果。哥伦比亚大学对于民间抵抗运动的研究表明，一个国家在爆发反抗独裁的武装运动后有43%的几率会陷入内战，而倘若民主运动不涉及暴力，内战爆发的几率只有28%。