Having tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in the central bank’s vault sounds reassuring until you realize that dollar debt coming due in the next 12 months may not be that much smaller. The data are not fully reliable or comparable across countries, but quick calculations reveal that there are many emerging markets where such short-term debt is 50% or more of the stock of international reserves.
在中央银行的金库中存放数百上千亿美元看上去相当可靠，直到你认识到未来12个月中到期的美元债务并不比这个数字小多少。尽管数据并不完全可靠，国家之间也未必可比，但稍做计算即可发现，许多新兴市场的短期债务可达国际储备存量的50%甚至更多。