Indeed, there are now greater geopolitical uncertainties as well: the risk of an Iran-Israel military confrontation remains high as negotiations and sanctions may not deter Iran from developing nuclear-weapons capacity; a new war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is likely; the Arab Spring is turning into a grim winter of economic, social, and political instability; and territorial disputes in Asia between China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam are inflaming nationalist forces.
事实上，如今地缘政治不确定性也在增加：由于谈判和制裁可能都无法阻止伊朗开发核武器实力的动作，伊朗-以色列军事冲突风险仍然很高；以色列和加沙哈马斯可能爆发新战争；阿拉伯之春可能会演变为经济、社会和政治动荡的严冬；而中国、韩国、日本、中国台湾、菲律宾和越南的领土纠纷正在点燃民族主义力量。