If we apply to catastrophic risks the same prudent analysis that leads us to buy insurance – multiplying probability by consequences – we would surely prioritize measures to reduce this kind of extreme risk. The decisions that we will make both individually and collectively in the foreseeable future will determine whether twenty-first century science yields benign or devastating outcomes.
这个相互联系越来越多的世界上存在新的危险，其后果可能影响广泛——或许是全球性的。全球性的灾难，即便只有极小的可能性，也是不可接受的。对于灾难风险，如果我们像购买保险时一样进行谨慎的分析——用后果乘以可能性——我们肯定会把降低这种极端风险的措施排在第一位。我们在可预见的未来个人和集体所做的决定将决定21世纪的科学带来的后果是良性的还是破坏性的。