The most likely outcome in Syria is that the human catastrophe will continue until President Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapses, after which the country very likely could be divided along ethnic and religious lines. And Syria’s disintegration could further balkanize the Middle East, potentially unleashing new violence.
叙利亚最有可能的结果是，人道灾难将一直持续到总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政权倒台，此后，叙利亚极有可能会因种族和宗教原因分裂。叙利亚的分裂将导致中东的进一步巴尔干化，形成新的保暴力。前线国家，如黎巴嫩、伊拉克和约旦等国，不可能在叙利亚分裂时独善其身。叙利亚库尔德人和巴勒斯坦人，或基督徒、德鲁兹派以及人数更少的穆斯林少数派命运会如何？阿拉维派（巴沙尔政权的基石）将面临可怕的命运，不管叙利亚是否分崩离析。