Abundant capital inflows caused their exchange rates to appreciate, making imports cheap and unleashing consumption (and sometimes investment) booms that eroded their trade balances, even as rising commodity prices boosted the value of their exports. Now the cycle is being reversed and exchange rates must depreciate to facilitate external adjustment.
受打击最大的经济体有一个共同点：存在巨额外部赤字。过多的资本流入造成它们的货币升值，使进口品变得便宜，形成了侵蚀贸易平衡的消费（有时还有投资）繁荣，尽管商品价格的上涨同时还提高了它们的出口品的价格。如今，周期正在逆转，汇率必须贬值以助外部调整。外资预测到了这一变化——利率提高到接近国内的水平——纷纷逃离，这加速了和深化了汇率崩溃。