Successful transitions depend from the start on factors that are still crucially missing in Libya – a relatively cohesive leadership, an active civil society, and national unity. Without these, Libya will most likely fail to find its footing and, much like post-Saddam Iraq, suffer from persistent political division and volatile civil disorder, in addition to a multifaceted array of geopolitical pressures.
从一开始，利比亚就缺少过渡所必须的要素——相对团结的领导层、活跃的公民社会以及民族团结。没有这些要素，利比亚就找不到自己的根，与后萨达姆时代的伊拉克相似，利比亚也将遭受旷日持久的政治分裂和动荡的社会失序，还有多层次的地缘政治危机。