If the massive wave of defaults on securitized mortgages was purely the result of bad luck, we would expect that the characteristics reported to investors would not differ from those recorded in the banks’ databases. This is especially true of characteristics that are relevant to default risk, such as whether the borrower was an owner or an investor, or whether there was a second lien on the property.
如果大规模的证券化抵押贷款违约完全是运气不好的结果，我们就会看到报告给投资者的数据特征与银行数据库所记录的数据特征是一样的。与违约风险相关的数据特征更是如此，比如借款人是业主还是投资者，或者该财产是否有二次质押。事实上，论文的作者们发现超过6%的抵押贷款错报了借款人的房屋使用状况，同时有7%的抵押贷款记录并未公开二次质押状况。