The economic factors driving these (and other) conflicts will worsen: global climate change is accelerating desertification and depleting water resources, with disastrous effects on agriculture and other economic activity that then trigger violence across ethnic, religious, social, and other cleavages. Nothing short of a massive, Marshall Plan-style outlay of financial resources, especially to rebuild the Middle East, will ensure long-term stability.
而大中东（包括阿富汗和巴基斯坦）和非洲的问题无法光靠军事和外交手段解决。这些（和其他）冲突背后的经济因素将恶化：全球气候变化正在加速沙漠化和水资源的耗竭，对农业和其他经济活动带来灾难，引发种族、宗教、社会和其他形式的暴力。至少必须有规模相当于马歇尔计划的金融资源援助——特别是以重建中东为目标的援助——才能确保长期稳定。欧洲能够并且愿意承担它应该承担的部分吗？