Looking at the monetary tightening that began in February 1994 and June 2004, the dollar strengthened substantially in both cases before the first rate hike, but then weakened by around 8% (as gauged by the Fed’s dollar index) in the subsequent six months. Over the next 2-3 years, the dollar index remained consistently below its level on the day of the first rate hike.
对美国来说，证据模棱两可。在始于1994年2月和2004年6月的两次货币紧缩中，美元较第一次升息前大幅升值，但在随后的六个月中贬值约8%（以美联储的美元指数衡量）。在此后的2—3年中，美元指数一直低于首次升息当日的水平。因此，对货币交易员来说，前两次美联储紧缩周期似乎是“在流言中买进，在新闻中卖出”的经典案例。