People’s discomfort with the findings stemmed largely from faulty intuition: if earlier and more frequent screening increases the likelihood of detecting a possibly fatal cancer, then more screening is always desirable. If more screening can detect breast cancer in asymptomatic women in their 40’s, wouldn’t it also detect cancer in women in their 30’s?
其实我们可以在数学和心理学之间的模糊区域中找到解读这一公众回应的关键点。人们对于上述发现的不满在很大程度上源自于一种错误的直觉：如果更早且更频密的筛查可以增加发现某种可致命癌症的几率，那么更多的筛查就是应该的。这么说来倘若更多的筛查可以在40岁年龄段的临床无症状妇女中发现乳腺癌，那何不把它提前到30岁？如果这也可行的话，按照逻辑上的归缪法，干脆从15岁开始每月照一张X光片好了。