Gold prices started to rise sharply in the first half of 2008, when emerging markets were overheating, commodity prices were rising, and there was concern about rising inflation in high-growth emerging markets. Even that rise was partly a bubble, which collapsed in the second half of 2008, when – after oil reached $145, killing global growth –the world economy fell into recession.
过去两年的金价走势符合上述规律。2008年上半年，金价开始猛涨，当时，新兴市场经济过热，大宗商品价格不断走高，人们担心新兴市场在高增长的同时出现高通胀。即便是这种由对冲通胀导致的金价上涨也不乏泡沫成分，到了2008年下半年，当高达145美元的油价开始扼杀全球增长势头之时，世界经济滑入衰退。对通缩的担忧取代了对通胀的恐惧，金价也随其他大宗商品价格一道开始向下调整。