The meager professional rewards for breadth, coupled with the inaccuracy and reputational risk associated with forecasting, leads to disengagement for most academics. And it may well be that academic economists have little to say about short-term economic movements, so that forecasting, with all its errors, is best left to professional forecasters.
专业上对跨领域研究的轻视，再加上预测的低准确性以及可能给名誉带来的损失，都让大多数专业经济学家对预测敬而远之，也导致专业经济学家甚少对短期经济活动发表意见，因此预测这件动辄得咎的事情只好留给专业预测者去做了。