LAGUNA BEACH – When I consider the prospects for the global economy and markets, I am taken aback by the extent to which the world has collectively placed a huge bet on three fundamental outcomes: a shift toward materially higher and more inclusive global growth, the avoidance of policy mistakes, and the prevention of market accidents. Though all three outcomes are undoubtedly desirable, the unfortunate reality is that they are far from certain – and bets on them without some hedging could prove exceedingly risky for current and future generations.
拉古娜海滩—当我思考全球经济和市场前景时，我都会大吃一惊：世界在三大基本结果上下了巨大的集体赌注。这三个结果是：向实质性更高、更包容的全球增长的转变、避免政策错误以及预防市场事故。尽管所有者三个结果毫无疑问都是值得追求的，但不幸的现实是，它们还远远不能称之为确定——下注于它们而不对冲也许会给我们和子孙后代带来巨大的风险。