BEIJING – After four disappointing years, Chinese economists have realized that slowing GDP growth – from a post-crisis peak of 12.8% in 2010 to about 7% today – is mainly structural, rather than cyclical. In other words, China’s potential growth rate has settled onto a significantly lower plateau.
北京—在经历了令人失望的四年后，中国经济学家已经意识到，GDP增长的放缓——从2010年危机后峰值12.8%下降到今天的7%左右——主要是结构性的，而不是周期性的。换句话说，中国潜在增长率已经下降到显著更低的平台。尽管中国应能避免硬着陆，但可以预期未来十年年增长率保持在6—7%。但这未必是坏消息。