There are no easy choices: defending the currency by hiking interest rates would kill growth and harm banks and corporate firms; loosening monetary policy to boost growth might push their currencies into free-fall, causing a spike in inflation and jeopardizing their ability to attract capital to finance their external deficits.
印度、巴西、土耳其、南非和印尼尤其如此，它们都经受着多重宏观和政策疲软——巨额经常项目赤字、大量财政赤字、增长放缓、通胀超标——而在大选之前的未来12—18个月中，它们还需要面对日渐升级的社会动荡和政治不确定性。没有容易的选择：通过提高利率捍卫货币会扼杀增长、伤害银行和公司；放松货币政策以刺激增长可能导致货币暴跌，造成通胀飙升、破坏吸引资本融资外部债务的能力。