New Caliphate, where Islamic religious identity challenges the dominance of western norms; and Cycle of Fear, in which non-state forces create shocks to security that produce Orwellian societies. Like any exercises in futurology, such scenarios have their limits, but they help us ask which three or four major political factors will help shape the outcome.
Comme tout exercice de futurologie, ces scénarios ont leurs limites, mais ils nous amènent à nous interroger sur les trois ou quatre déterminants politiques majeurs qui vont façonner l'avenir.