Despite debate over the details, the conclusion of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff – that a high debt/GDP ratio can inhibit economic growth – remains widely accepted; so it is unlikely that raising the debt ratio to 100% would be in China’s long-term interest.
Dans un tel scénario, les prêts non performants au sein du système bancaire chinois vont probablement s'élever à environ 1 trillion de dollars.