Wummbere ngaandirere ko laawol juumnowol hakkille saanga nde o gollotoo. E binndanɗe men ɗiɗi cakkitiiɗe (Fooyre t 198 e t 200), en njeewtii fannuuji miijagol e caɗeele mum. E ndee winndannde en njokkat lappol ngol, njeewten gummbe tati ganndinooje en huunde e leefndam hakkillaaji men.
1. Wummbere baɗdal : Ndee wummbere kewata ko ɗo neɗɗo woppata laabi miijagol pawiiɗi e rewriwal, o huutoroo tan maale mehe ɗe o yiyri neɗɗo maa fiyaaku ngu o woni e ɓetde. O taƴoo kala miijo teeyngo, huutoriingo kuule rewriwal, o rewnoo tan ɗeen maale ngam o ñaawira ɗe alhaali mo o woni e dow mum oo. Wiyee o waɗdii fiyaaku nguu e maale mehe ɗee. Heewii ɗo wummbere baɗdal ɗowi joomum e juumre mawnde.
Ƴetten yeru: “Aysata nde famɗi ndee ko suka debbo tiiɗniiɗo wonnoo. Omo darinoo e duɗal Pulaar wuro maɓɓe, o yuɓɓinii ñalɗi pinal e jeewte gannde keewɗe. Hannde Aysata heɓii duuɓi 35.
Hol e geɗe les-ɗoo ɗee ɓuri hasaade?
a) Aysata wonti ko jeeyoowo
b) Aysata wonti ko jeeyoowo tawa ina janngina Pulaar ”
Ɗoo, heewɓe njaabotoo ko b). Ɓeeyno (sondage) wayngo nii waɗanooma tawa yuɓɓini ngo ko Daniel Kahneman, fiɗtiweejo (psychologue), faggiyanke (economiste), jom njeenaari Nobel Faggudu 2002, golliiɗo e gummbe gaandireeje.
Tawaa 89% njaabii ko b). Wadde ina hasii sanne tawa aan taroowo oo e hoyre maa, njaabi-ɗaa ko b). Jooni pamminen ko saabii ko jaabtowol a) ngol ɓuri hasaade e ngol b) ngol. Eɗum weeɓi no feewi : So neɗɗo wonii jeeyoowo, jannginoowo Pulaar, o wonii kam jeeyoowo ! Wadde, kala ko aaɓani wonde “jeeyoowo jannginoowo Pulaar” ina aaɓanori wonde “jeeyoowo”. Tawa noon neɗɗo ina wona jeeyoowo mo janngintaa Pulaar, oon sahaa wonaa ko aaɓani wonde jeeyoowo fof aaɓanori wonde “jannginoowo Pulaar”. Ndeen noon, ko Aysata waawnoo wonde e nguurndam mum cukaaku fof, wonde mo “ jeeyoowo ” ɓurata aaɓande mo e wonde “jeeyoowo tawa kadi ko jannginoowo Pulaar”.
Tesko : nde wiyaa jeeyoowo ndee, wiyaaka jeeyoowo mo janngintaa.
2. Wummbere ɓayre : Ndee wummbere arata ko ɗo neɗɗo tuugnotoo tan e won e sifaaji keeriiɗi goɗɗo ngam ñaawde ɗum, walla ñaawirde ɗum sifaaji ɗi o anndiri mo oon jiydi jeyaande. Njiyren ɗum ɗii yeruuji:
a) Heewii ɗo jom lone e montoor baɗɗo dadungal baraayee jaggiraa jannguɗo maa gollotooɗo e yuɓɓo laamu tawa huutoraa ɗoon tan ko ɗii sifaaji keeriiɗi. Sahaa nii, so o tawdaama e jom caaya, ko kanko nanngirtee jannguɗo oo tawa hay ɓeto wooto waɗaaka haa anndee ko woni heen. Won ɗo debbo koybuɗo kadduki nanngatee cangarteweejo, o jaasnee yeeso, timmuɗo kadduki, tawa ko oon ɓuri wonde cangarteweejo. Ɗum fof addi ɗum ko haaɗde e maale ɗe jikku maaniwu ɓayirta ngam ñaawde wonde kala jogiiɗo ɗeen maale ko jom jikku nguu e hoyre mum. Ngati hayso yoga e ɓe nganndu-ɗen e cangarteweeɓe ko jom koltu ndooɓaangu en, firtaani kala jom nguun koltu ko cangarteweejo. Ko noon ne, hay so ɓe nganndu-ɗen, njogi-ɗen yaakaare ngonaa cangarteweeɓe ɓee ko timmuɓe kadduki, addanaani kala timmuɗo kadduki waasde ɗum wonde cangarteweejo. Ɗum ina yaha e simmotooɓe nanngeteeɓe kellifaaka, deeƴɓe ɓe ngalaa haala nanngateeɓe ko jom nehdi e hakkillaaji, ekn… Haala kaa roondii ko wonde alaa no wayataa, haaɗde e maale ɗe nganndir-ɗen won yimɓe jogiiɓe won jikkuuji ngam ñaawde wonde jogiiɓe ɗeen maale ina poti jogaade ɗiin jikkuuji, ko juumre hakkille mawnde.
b) Heewii ɗo neɗɗo ñaawraa golle goɗɗo: Hammadi e Sammba ina mbaawi jiydude iwdi, walla jeyaande maa enɗam ; Hammadi wona neɗɗo ganndiraaɗo won ŋakkere walla won baawal, tan hono hojom, jooɗtoroo wonde Sammba ina jogii ndeen ŋakkere walla ngaal baawal. Yeru : Ngannden tuubaak baawɗo ganndal tan, hanti njaggen tuubak fof ina waawi ganndal haa hankati hay so tuubaak muddo waddaama e ɓaleejo peɗɗitiiɗo, ko tuubaak oo ruttatee ganndal ngal tawa hay ɓeto wooto waɗaaka. Hono ɗee ñawanɗe ina tawee e ɓernde ko wiyatee “ Leñamleñaagu ” ngu nganndu-ɗaa, wonaa tan leñol pawangol dow ngol ñawi ɗum kono hay pawangol les ngol, ina golla ɗum e won e mbaydiiji.
E nder leydi mbayndi no Amerik, wiɗtooji kollirii wonde ɓurɓe njoolɗude ina heewi to njoɓaa ko ɓuri heewde tawa ɓe mbaɗ-daa ko e ɓe ɓe poti baawal e golle, tawa ɓeen ŋakkiraa tan ko darnde! So ƴeewaama meeɗɓe laamaade Amerik ɓee fof, ko jom darɗe en ɓuri waawde heen taweede. Renndo ngoo, e ballal sinemaa teleeji, ina waɗda darnde e ganndal maa e mbaawka, jiiɓondira ɗum en. Ko ɗum addata hono ɗee ɓurɓure ɗe ngalaa ɗo pawii ɗo laaɓti.
3. Wummbere jejjol gaaɓe cakke : Ndee wummbere no fuuntirta yimɓe nii ina hulɓinii. Miɗo heewi jarriboraade nde almuɓɓe am jaaɓi-haaɗtirde; kono, hay e ngoon tolno toowngo, ina heewi e maɓɓe fergittooɓe e mayre nde potti heen gadanol mumen. Cattam mayre fawii ko e wonde nde lutndam-waayowere (contre-intuitif).
Ƴetten nguu yeru : “Nder renndo wooto ina waɗi rafi mo innirten R, tawa ko gooto e nder ujunere 1/1000 jogii mo. Rafi oo dañanaa ƴeewndal (test). Ƴeewndal noon waawaa hollude ko yiilotoo koo 100 nder 100, ɗum jogotoo tan ko tolno hoolaare mawnde, kono nde wonataa timmunde (hono 100%). Tolno hoolaare Ƴeewndal ganndinowal so neɗɗo ina wondi e rafi R ngal ko 99%. Ɗum woni :
a) So ngal yaltinii wonde neɗɗo ƴeewndateeɗo oo ina jogii rafi oo, e nder 99 e nder teemedere laawol tawata ko oon ne jogii mo. Ko noon so ngal wi’ii joomum ina selli ;
b) Laawol gootol nder 100 (1%), ƴeewndal ngal ina juuma, ngal wiya neɗɗo oo ina wondi e R tawa oon wonndaani heen. Ko noon ne ngal juumirta wonande ñawɗo mo ngal jaggirta ko celluɗo.
Jooni, so neɗɗo ƴettaama e renndo hee, o ƴeewndaama, ƴeewndal ngal hollii omo wondi e rafi R oo. Hol gaaɓe (hasre) makko wonndude e R e jaati ? ”
Hono ngal laaɓndal so fawaama, ɓurɓe heewde njaabotoo ko gaaɓe neɗɗo oo wonndude e R ina toowi, walla nii o wiya ɗe tolnii ko e 99%, sabu ƴeewndal hollota goonga ko tolno 99%. Kono jaaboraade noon ko juumre fattamlamre !! Saabii juumre ndee ko jaabiriiɗo noon laaɓndal ngal oo, huutorii e ɓeto mum tan ko no ƴeewndal ngal gollortoo nii, o yejjitii gaaɓe cakkiiɗe ɗee ; hono hasre neɗɗo wonde dafaaɗo R tawa haala ƴeewndal haalaaka nii boom. Etee ndeen hasre ina famɗi no feewi, ko nde 1/1000. So neɗɗo yejjitii ɗum e miijagol mum, o waɗat juumde mawnde e ñaawoore makko. Jooni ƴeewen mo ƴeewndal wiyi koko ñawi oo, hol gaaɓe maɓɓe wonde ñawɗo e jaati ?
Ɓayri so en ƴettii 1000 neɗɗo ko gooto heen rafaa, waɗde nder 100 000 neɗɗo ko 100 ndafaa heen. Ndeen noon, so 100 000 neɗɗo ƴeewndaama ; nder 100 ñawɓe ɓee woodat 99 yaltuɓe e ƴeewndal hee ina ñawi, gooto oo yaltata ko rafaaka (sabu juumre ndee). 99 900 heddiiɓe ɓee ko selluɓe, kono heen 1% njaltata e ƴeewndal hee ko ina njogii rafi oo ; ɗum hawra 999 neɗɗo. Wadde kawtal yaltooɓe e ƴeewndal ngal ina ngonndi e rafi oo fotata ko e 99+999 = 1098. Tawa noon ko heen 99 tan ñawi e jaati, 999 heddiiɓe ɓee ñawaani, ko e juumre 1% ƴeewndal hee ɓe njalti. So en kiisiima gaaɓe kawrooje e ƴeewndeede tawee ko ñawɗo tawa ko ñawɗo e jaati, keɓen 99/1098, tolnoo e 9 %. Ndeen noon mo ƴeewndal wiyi ko ñawɗo ina jogii 91 % gaaɓe waasde ñawde !! Etee ndii njeñtudi ina woɗɗondiri e jaaɓtowol dartoringol wonde “ so ƴeewndal wiyii eey tawata ko ina hasii wona eey ” ngol. Njeñtudi ndii lutndi ɗum nii ! Etee, hono no hiisa kaa holliri ɗum nii, ko kayri woni e goonga.
Yejjitde gaaɓe cakke (hono taƴre diiñorde ñawɓe e nder renndo hee, wonande yeru men nguu) ko juumre mawnde.
Nguu-ɗoo yeru ina holla en wonde miijo yaawngo waawaa lomtaade teeynoragol kisindirtoongal ɓeto sellungo, dartiingo. Miijooji men jaawɗi mbaawaa yiyde geɗe goongɗuɗe kaawniiɗe lutndotooɗe waayo (intuition) men.
E ndee winndannde, en njahndiima seeɗa nder lowre gaandiro (cognition), en mbiɗtindiima heen juume ɓutte, kollu-ɗen no ɗe ndeentortee. Maa en ngartu e hono ɗee juume, njaajtino-ɗen heen.
Muhammadu Faalil Sih
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