title:  Democrats Need To Mobilize, Stick Together, And Get Out The Vote – And Fast
text: Hillary Clinton has had a bad two weeks. Whereas it may not be her fault (rather, the fault of a bloodthirsty, spineless media), she s still suffering at the polls. Her chances of winning, all across the board, have declined. The New York Times currently gives Clinton a 73 percent chance of winning the election, down from a near 90 percent chance at the beginning of the month. Nate Silver s FiveThirtyEight gives her a dismal 61 percent chance, down from a soaring 86 percent just one month ago. Hillary has taken a nose dive (10 points) in just one week alone.Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, all crucial swing states, were once comfortably in Clinton s camp. Now? They are all in Trump s camp, and continue to head in his right-wing direction.As Nate Silver puts it: Democrats should panic, if polls look like this in a week. Why? States that are also considered  safe  for democrats are becoming highly competitive:That s not to imply the events of the weekend were necessarily catastrophic for Clinton: In the grand scheme of things, they might not matter all that much (although polling from YouGov suggests that Clinton s health is in fact a concern to voters). But when you re only ahead by 3 or 4 points, and when some sequence of events causes you to lose another 1 or 2 points, the Electoral College probabilities can shift pretty rapidly. A lot of light blue states on our map have turned pink, meaning that Trump is now a narrow favorite there instead of Clinton.Look at it this way, also. Democrats rely heavily on early voter turnout. With the media overwhelmingly slamming Hillary unfairly (and giving Trump unprecedented bias), that could spell trouble for early voting gains for Democrats because the atmosphere is more unfavorable to Hillary than it is to Trump.Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming all begin early voting in September, with 11 other states (including thee swing state of Ohio) conducting early voting within a month. So in the next month, a third of the states will be heading to the polls already. And this election, early voting will play a key factor into how the nation will decide:Historically, early voting has favored the Democrats in some key states, and in 2008 35 percent of votes are cast before the election according to the Associated Press. That s up from 22 percent in 2004.This election is expected to see an uptick in early voting. Considering the GOP is beating Democrats at the registration game, Democrats need to mobilize, and quickly. Take for example:In Pennsylvania   where Democrats  registration advantage has fallen by a fifth since the 2012 election, to 915,000 voters   more than 85,000 former Democrats have become Republicans this year, almost three times the number of voters who made the opposite switch.If Hillary wants to win the election, she ll need to win Pennsylvania, as it s a safeguard if she loses Florida. Pennsylvania is one of fourteen states that doesn t allow early voting, and Hillary is holding her own due largely in part to metropolitan Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. However, one crucial demographic is becoming problematic: white, working class blue dogs who reside in the mid and western part of the state. With Republicans gaining ground in registration, Democrats should be on high alert and working diligently to register not just Democrats in the metropolitan areas, but the rust-belt towns and counties that usually lean Democratic but are turning red.Then there s the enthusiasm gap. Democrats were elated and fired up for President Obama s candidacy, and sadly, due to the media and GOP smear tactics, have turned off many of those in the Obama coalition from excitement regarding Hillary Clinton. As President Obama told black voters, he would be personally insulted if they did not show up for Hillary, who polls in the mid 90s with black voters.But like GOP registrants, there is a glimmer of hope for Democrats: Hispanic voters, who traditionally lag 20 points behind whites in voter turnout, may see an opportunity to be enthusiastic and get out to vote:Hispanics are a part of the Democratic coalition and their turnout rates have been low, about 20 points lower than whites or blacks in presidential elections. There is speculation that Trump s rhetoric could entice Hispanics to vote against him, and there is some evidence in polls that Hispanic voting enthusiasm is running higher than normal. In Georgia, Florida and North Carolina race and ethnicity are tracked on these states  voter files, so it is possible to look at the individual level data to see if Hispanics are showing up at unusually higher numbers than the past.Democrats have the chance to get out and bring back the Obama coalition to deliver a win for Hillary, but they need to act fast. Early voting is paramount to Democrats having an early lead, and mobilizing to push back against the unfair treatment of Hillary will help alleviate a bad taste in the voter s mouths heading into the November election. Having  a strong lead will also inspire Democrats to not give up and continue to push for a major blow-out on November 8th. But like everything else, Democrats have to want it.Democrats, do not get discouraged. Do not give up when the polling is bad. Do not waste your vote on a  protest  candidate. Get out, mobilize, work together, and vote for Hillary Clinton.Featured image via Justin Sullivan/Getty Images