title:  Three National Polls Show Hillary Is Now Leading Trump
text: One of the arguments against nominating Hillary Clinton for president has always been that Bernie would be stronger against Donald Trump. There was some ammunition to that argument. Bernie was doing better in a lot of polls. Now, Hillary supporters have argued that Bernie hasn t yet had full media scrutiny, but new polls show that that doesn t even matter. Hillary is doing just fine on her own.A new Reuters/Ipso poll shows that Hillary s lead over Trump is quite comfortable and way outside the margin of error. According to the poll, she will beat Trump by about eight points.Rasmussen is showing a tighter race, with only a four point lead, but still, a lead. Even Fox News shows a three point lead for Hillary.More significant, though, is what s happening, or not happening with Donald Trump. First off, the Bernie or Bust crowd doesn t seem to be as big a factor as many feared. Only 17 percent of voters say they wouldn t vote or that they will vote for someone else. You can chalk that trend up to Trump disillusionment at least as much as Clinton disillusionment.While Hillary s approval ratings are going up, Trump s are going down, and now, we re seeing a serious crack in his campaign. We know that Trump is losing badly with women and every minority, but he s also not doing as well with white people as he needs.FiveThirtyEight argues that Trump could win, if he brings in enough white voters, but he s not doing that:Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in every national poll for roughly the last three weeks. He s led in only three of 34 polls since knocking Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the race in early May. In fact, the only two pollsters who had Trump ahead and have released a more recent poll (Fox News and Rasmussen Reports) now show him trailing by 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively.One big reason Trump is trailing   by an average of 4 to 6 percentage points, depending on which aggregator you use   is because, despite all the bluster, he isn t doing any better than Romney did among white voters. According to Cohn s estimate, based on pre-election surveys, Romney beat President Obama by 17 percentage points among white voters. To win, Trump would need to improve on Romney s margin by a minimum of 5 percentage points if the electorate looked exactly the same as it did in 2012 and every other racial group voted in the same manner as it did in 2012.The column goes on to say that Trump is doing better than Romney in what Trump would call  the poorly educated,  but he s doing much worse than Romney with college educated white people. Without women and minorities, that leaves Trump in a losing situation. Then, of course, there are the white people who aren t bigots.Featured image via Getty Images. 