title: Factbox: Wall Street's take on possible outcome of U.S. elections
text: (Reuters) - U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump are in a tight race ahead of the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election. Following is a roundup of Wall Street’s take on the likely outcome of the U.S. elections.  Analysts still expect a Clinton win, but with a lower probability after the FBI revealed it is examining newly found emails related to Clinton's use of a private server while she was secretary of state.(reut.rs/2eVjseK) Prior to this revelation, analysts were largely focused on the likelihood – albeit a small one – of a Democratic sweep of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives this election, and the implications of such a scenario on financial markets. (reut.rs/2fcIZ2O) MORE COVERAGE: bit.ly/2dOgcoE Tina Fordham, Chief Global Political Analyst, Citigroup “Our probability of a 75 pct probability of a Clinton victory remains unchanged due to our longstanding caution over the risks of Black Swans, but these developments (FBI’s latest announcement on Clinton email probe) have added a significant obstacle to the Clinton campaign, and are likely to further dent voter confidence.”  “The FBI announcement could increase the risk that if Trump loses he does not accept the result, as he has threatened. If a Clinton victory transpires and she presides over a Republican-controlled or divided Congress, the risk of continuous investigations and future impeachment risk is non-negligible.” Shawn Golhar, Head of Public Policy Research, Barclays Capital “While the FBI Director’s letter may drive reluctant GOP voters to the polls and convince some remaining undecided voters to support Donald Trump, it is unclear if this will sway the election enough for Trump, given the Democratic electoral firewall, early voting indications, and Trump’s lack of a voter turnout campaign.” “The 2016 elections continue to have two tail end risks: Donald Trump wins, or the Democrats sweep the White House and both chambers of Congress. Friday’s announcement will likely increase Trump’s chances of winning and whittle down the already slim chances of a Democratic sweep.” Alec Phillips, U.S. Political Economist, Goldman Sachs “The probability implied by online prediction markets that Sec. Clinton wins the White House has declined over the last several days, from between 80 pct and 90 pct in most markets over the last couple of weeks, to between 64 pct and 75 pct as of November 1... That said, Secretary Clinton is still seen by prediction markets to be twice as likely to win the election as Mr. Trump.”         “Polls have tightened in the U.S. presidential election... However, even after adjusting Sec. Clinton’s lead in state polls for her diminished margin nationally, she still appears likely to win more than the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the White House.” “As a starting point, note that the reliably Democratic states that Sec. Clinton currently leads by at least mid-single digits are worth 263 electoral votes. To reach 270, she must add to this North Carolina (15 EVs, Clinton leads by around 2pp), Colorado (9 EVs, Clinton leads by 1-2pp); and/or Nevada and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine (6 EVs plus 1 EV, Clinton leads by around 1pp in both).”  “By contrast, Mr. Trump has a solid lead in states worth 186 EVs; to reach 270 he would need to add to this Arizona (11 EVs, Trump leads by around 1pp), Florida (29 EVs, Trump leads by around 1pp), Ohio (18 EVs, Trump leads by around 2pp), plus Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina, or some other combination that scores electoral votes even deeper into Democratic territory.” “This is still a significant polling deficit for Mr. Trump to overcome in a large number of states, particularly in contrast to Sec. Clinton, who simply needs to win one of the very competitive states she currently leads (Colorado, Nevada, or North Carolina) and maintain her sizable lead in the others to win.” Stephen Gallagher, Americas Head of Research, Societe Generale “Our baseline outcome is for Secretary Clinton to win the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Donald Trump’s chances are modest but still viable. The latest FBI interest in emails demonstrates that, ‘It isn’t over till it’s over.’”     “Traditionally, the losing candidate in a race concedes on the basis of incoming results, and that call is typically an early morning exercise. The challenge for 2016 is Trump’s promise to maintain the suspense. Without a concession, markets and general public may presume the outcome on the basis of results, but difficult to confirm until states certify the results.”  Thomas Block, Washington Policy Strategist, Fundstrat Global Advisors “Fundamentals continue to point to a Clinton victory with 75 percent chances of a Clinton/Kaine win, but margins are likely to be closer in key swing states. However, Trump surprised and outperformed in primaries, and with recent events impossible to capture in polling, nothing is certain.” 