title:  This Method Has Predicted Every Modern Election And Trump Is Screwed
text: It s not about polls, it s not about personalities, it s not about unfavorable (or favorable) ratings, it s not even about policy. Moody s, who has predicted every election since Reagan in 1980, says that the Democrat will win the White House and the odds are getting progressively worse for Trump.According to Moody s, it s the economy. It s always the economy, and despite Trump s insistence that we are stuck in an apocalyptic nightmare of 40 percent or more unemployment, people are pretty happy overall, which favors the party in office: Democrats.It s a bad sign for Trump. Moody s has been predicting a Democratic triumph since last August, but the margin of victory is getting bigger for the left as the economy has stayed relatively strong and President Obama s approval rating has risen.The reason a Democrat will win isn t about polling or personalities, it s about economics, says Moody s. The economy is the top issue in just about every election. When the economy is doing well, the party currently in office usually wins again. When the economy is tanking, Americans vote for change.So far, the U.S. economy is chugging along. It s growing. Millions of people are getting jobs, home prices are rising and gas is cheap. All of this favors Democrats. The bad thing is that this puts Trump right in his comfort zone. Just two years before the housing collapse, Trump, on the Howard Stern Show, actually hoped that the real estate market would collapse. You can bet that he s hoping something similar for 2016.Right now, Moody s says the thing most likely to put a wrench in Democrats  plans is if the price of oil was to dramatically rise. Nationally, that level would have to be about $3.00 per gallon. Right now, the national average is about $2.31, which Americans are pretty comfortable with.The other thing Americans are comfortable with, which bodes well for Democrats, is President Obama. His approval rating is over 50 percent for the first time in three years. If it holds at current levels, the two-year increase in the president s approval rating running up to the election would surpass even that of President Ronald Reagan at the end of the Cold War,  notes Moody s.Best yet, the swing states are all looking pretty good. Moody s predicts that Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Colorado (no wonder Republicans hate legalized pot, it helps the economy and helps Democrats win) and Nevada will all swing for the Dems. North Carolina should go Republican unless the transgender bathroom laws get enough Dems to the polls.Featured image via Joe Raedle at Getty Images (Clinton)/Isaac Brekken with Getty Images (Trump)