title:  Reality Check: New Iowa Poll Shows Bernie In The Lead; Second Iowa Poll Shows Hillary Leading
text: The news media thrives on political drama, so whenever a new poll drops in the increasingly heated Democratic primary contest, you can expect the everyone to lose their minds, and the sensationalistic headlines will be frantically shared all over social media.The latest CNN/ORC poll is just another example of this phenomenon. The headline from The Hill is indicative of headlines on this story throughout the political internet on Thursday:  Poll: Sanders overtakes Clinton in Iowa. That d be excellent news for Sanders if it held water:A CNN-ORC poll released on Thursday found Sanders receiving 51 percent support in Iowa to Clinton s 43 percent. Clinton led by 18 points in the December version of the poll.Again, seemingly great news for Bernie. But the next two paragraphs completely undermine The Hill s headline and lede.Reality check:But among Iowans who participated in the 2008 caucuses, the survey found, Clinton leads Sanders 55 percent to 38 percent.The difference between the first part and the second part is the difference between  voters  and  likely voters    the latter being a more accurate measure of Democratic preferences. The next sentence is even more sobering.Clinton still leads in the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls by 4.7 points, but recent surveys show the Democratic presidential race has tightened considerably since the fall, when she appeared to be pulling away.So, yes, while the race might be tightening, the polling average shows Clinton in the lead.Meanwhile, a second poll dropped on Thursday showing Hillary Clinton leading in Iowa, contradicting the CNN/ORC poll.Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a nine-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) among Iowa Democrats, according to a poll released Thursday by the Emerson College Polling Society.Clinton has the support of more than half of Iowa Democrats, with 52 percent of respondents intending to vote for her. By contrast, support for Sanders stood at 43 percent and support for former Maryland Gov. Martin O Malley at 3 percent.So, which poll is correct? Perhaps neither. All we need to do is reference the gold standard for polling, Nate Silver, whose algorithm still shows Clinton comfortably in the lead in Iowa, according to both the odds and the polling averages. According to Silver, Clinton s chances of winning Iowa have increased in the last 24 hours to 83 percent. Silver s polling average, by the way, shows Clinton leading 47.7 percent to Sanders  40.9 percent.To be abundantly clear: this isn t intended to take the wind out of the sails of Bernie s momentum or to crap all over his supporters. It s merely both a reality check as well as an illustration of what we can expect from the political press as the primary season heats up. Bottom line: read everything with a critical eye before sharing or retweeting.Featured image via video screen grab.