 Morgan et al.complained in their response to that vos Savant still had not actually responded to their own main point.Later in their response to Hogbin and Nijdam (2011), they did agree that it was natural to suppose that the host chooses a door to open completely at random, when he does have a choice, and hence that the conditional probability of winning by switching (i.e., conditional given the situation the player is in when he has to make his choice) has the same value, , as the unconditional probability of winning by switching (i.e., averaged over all possible situations).