 In all likelihood, these warnings went unheeded because "those who doubted they amounted to compelling evidence won the argument.In effect, they were right.Only in early July did U.S. observers note the movement of Iraqi assets out of garrison with war-related 'basic loads' of ammunition", and it was not until September 17 that the CIA indicated "the intensification of border clashes between Iran and Iraq has reached a point where a serious conflict is now a distinct possibility."