from recent levels of approximately 31.5 million barrels per day as Iranian production and exports recover.

The company estimates that net oil-equivalent production in 2016 will be flat to 4 percent growth compared to 2015. This estimate is subject to many factors and uncertainties, including the duration of the low price environment that began in second-half 2014; quotas or other actions that may be imposed by OPEC; price effects on entitlement volumes; changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on the scope of company operations; delays in construction, start-up or ramp-up of projects; fluctuations in demand for natural gas in various markets; weather conditions that may shut in production; civil unrest; changing geopolitics; delays in completion of maintenance turnarounds; greater-than-expected declines in production from mature fields; or other disruptions to operations. The outlook for future production levels is also affected by the size and number of economic investment opportunities and, for new, large-scale projects, the time lag between initial exploration and the beginning of production. Investments in upstream projects generally begin well in advance of the start of the associated crude oil and natural gas production. A significant majority of Chevron’s upstream investment is made outside the United States.

In the Partitioned Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production was shut-in beginning in May 2015 as a result of difficulties in securing work and equipment permits. Net oil-equivalent production in the Partitioned Zone in 2014 was 81,000 barrels per day. During 2015, net oil-equivalent production averaged 28,000 barrels per day. As of early 2016, production remains shut-in and the exact timing of a production restart is uncertain and dependent on dispute resolution between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The financial effects from the loss of production in 2015 were not significant and are not expected to be significant in 2016.

Net proved reserves for consolidated companies and affiliated companies totaled 11.2 billion barrels of oil-equivalent at year-end 2015, an increase of 1 percent from year-end 2014. The reserve replacement ratio in 2015 was 107 percent. Refer to Table V beginning on page FS-65 for a tabulation of the company’s proved net oil and gas reserves by geographic area, at the beginning of 2013 and each year-end from 2013 through 2015, and an accompanying discussion of major changes to proved reserves by geographic area for the three-year period ending December 31, 2015.

Refer to the “Results of Operations” section on pages FS-6 through FS-8 for additional discussion of the company’s upstream business.

Downstream Earnings for the downstream segment are closely tied to margins on the refining, manufacturing and marketing of products that include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, fuel oil, fuel and lubricant additives, and petrochemicals. Industry margins are sometimes volatile and can be affected by the global and regional supply-and-demand balance for refined products and petrochemicals, and by changes in the price of crude oil, other refinery and petrochemical feedstocks, and natural gas. Industry