45th Canadian federal election
The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.

The election will potentially be the first contested using a new 343-constituency electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundary sets for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14, 2023 and July 8, 2023, and are expected to be officially proclaimed in September 2023. If this schedule is maintained, any election that occurs after April 2024 will use the new boundaries, while any called prior will re-use the 338-seat boundary set presently in force.

Background
The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding 2019 election. The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition. On September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, which came into effect on November 10.

Electoral redistribution

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution of seats following each decennial Canadian census. Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and is expected to be completed in September 2023. On October 15, the chief electoral officer announced that allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution. Bill C-14 amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause". The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15, the Senate on June 21, and received royal assent on June 23. The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021. The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022.  The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023, and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023. The Chief Electoral Officer is now obliged to use the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a Representation Order, which is expected to be proclaimed in September 2023. 

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries may take effect at the earliest in 2024, which based on a September 2023 proclamation will more specifically occur in April 2024. If the election occurs before the new electoral boundaries have been established, it will occur with the current electoral district boundaries, which have been in effect since the 2015 federal election was called on August 4, 2015.

Parties and standings
The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent.

Incumbents not running for re-election

Timeline

2021
September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.
November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party. The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.
November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole. Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order. The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.
November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.
December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.

2022 
February 2 – Erin O'Toole was removed as the leader of the Conservative Party, by a caucus vote. Candice Bergen was selected by the party caucus to serve as interim leader.
March 22 – The Liberal and New Democratic parties reached a confidence and supply agreement, with the NDP agreeing to support the Liberal government until June 2025 in exchange for specific policy commitments.
May 24 – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election officially began, pursuant to the party's constitution.
 May 28 – Liberal Sven Spengemann resigned as the MP of Mississauga–Lakeshore to accept a role in the United Nations.
September 10 – The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election concluded. Pierre Poilievre was announced as the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
 September 13 – MP Alain Rayes left the Conservative Party to sit as an independent.
 November 19 – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election was concluded. Elizabeth May was announced as the new leader of the Green Party of Canada.
 December 12 – Liberal MP for Winnipeg South Centre Jim Carr died of cancer.
 December 12 – A federal by-election was held in Mississauga–Lakeshore, with Liberal Charles Sousa elected.
 December 12 – Bob Benzen resigned as the Member of Parliament for Calgary Heritage.

2023 
 January 27  – Dave MacKenzie resigned as the Member of Parliament for Oxford.
 February 28 – Candice Bergen resigned as the Member of Parliament for Portage—Lisgar.
 March 8 – Marc Garneau resigned as the Member of Parliament for Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount.
 March 22 – Han Dong left the Liberal Party to sit as an independent.
 June 19 – A federal by-election was held in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, with Liberal Anna Gainey elected.
 June 19 – A federal by-election was held in Oxford, with Conservative Arpan Khanna elected.
 June 19 – A federal by-election was held in Portage—Lisgar, with Conservative Branden Leslie elected.
 June 19 – A federal by-election was held in Winnipeg South Centre, with Liberal Ben Carr elected.
 July 24 – A federal by-election was held in Calgary Heritage, with Conservative Shuvaloy Majumdar elected.
 July 26 – The prime minister conducted a major cabinet reshuffle.
 August 1  – Erin O'Toole resigned as the Member of Parliament for Durham.

Opinion polls

Notes

References

Federal, 45
2025