Preliminary results indicated that the Christian Social Union (CSU) received 37.3 percent of the vote, falling short of an absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. This outcome is expected to lead to internal conflicts within the conservative party, which has been a challenging partner for Merkel in Berlin. Bavarian premier Markus Soeder acknowledged the disappointing result, stating that today is a difficult day for the CSU. Despite this setback, he expressed a desire to establish a stable government promptly. The CSU will now need to form a coalition, a situation that is seen as a humiliation for a party accustomed to governing independently, especially with the pro-immigration Greens coming in second and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) entering the state assembly for the first time. The Greens significantly increased their share of the vote to 17.8 percent, gaining support from more liberal CSU voters and those who typically vote for the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD), who only received 9.5 percent. Fred Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington, referred to the election results in Bavaria as a political earthquake with potential implications for Berlin. Although not directly mentioning Merkel, SPD leader Andrea Nahles criticized the federal government in Berlin, where the SPD is in a coalition with the conservatives, as a factor in her party's poor performance in Bavaria. She emphasized the need for change. Horst Seehofer, leader of the CSU, has been causing problems for Angela Merkel since 2015 when she decided to open Germany's borders to over 1 million migrants. He has gradually shifted his party to the right in an unsuccessful attempt to combat the rise of the AfD. The Bavarian State Prime Minister Markus Soeder reacted to the first exit polls in the Bavarian state election on October 14, 2018. According to political scientist Michael Weigl from the University of Passau, Seehofer's personal attacks on Merkel and his tough stance on asylum seekers were responsible for the CSU's poor performance. This strategy led to a polarized political climate that benefited the Greens and the AfD the most. When asked about resigning as CSU leader, Seehofer mentioned to ZDF that he was considering it but needed to analyze the various reasons for the party's poor performance. The preliminary results showed that the AfD had won 10.7 percent of the vote, while the Free Voters, a protest party that could potentially be the CSU's coalition partner, won 11.6 percent. The CSU has already ruled out forming an alliance with the AfD. The divisions between Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and the CSU have deepened since they were forced into a coalition with the Social Democrats in March following an inconclusive national election. The Bavarian election will be followed by another test for Merkel's conservative alliance, the Union, in two weeks when her CDU is expected to remain the largest party but lose votes in the election in Hesse, which is home to the financial center of Frankfurt. Merkel will seek re-election as party chairwoman at the annual CDU congress in December, a move supported by senior conservatives despite the recent ousting of her ally, Volker Kauder, as leader of the parliamentary party. Before the Bavarian vote, Merkel called for an end to infighting within the CDU and CSU allies. Her fourth and likely final government has faced near-collapse twice due to disputes over immigration and a scandal involving a former spymaster. Jan Techau from The German Marshall Fund of the United States think-tank described Merkel as "exhausted and weakened." He mentioned that despite initial doubts, her decision to stay neutral may not be as foolish given the recent outcome for the CSU. The future of this decision will be determined by the results in Hesse.