Russia has expanded its military presence to the borders of several NATO countries, including the Baltic nations, after invading Ukraine and deploying troops in Belarus. If Russia successfully takes over Ukraine and maintains bases in Belarus, its forces will stretch from the Baltics and Poland to Slovakia, Hungary, and northern Romania. This poses a significant challenge for NATO in defending its eastern flank. The proximity of Russian forces in Belarus to Kaliningrad, which is armed with missiles capable of reaching Europe, poses a new level of risk for NATO. Ian Lesser and Ian Bond, former officials, warn of the increased danger of conflict with Russian forces in Europe and other regions for years to come, changing the dynamics for NATO. Russia is trying to eliminate Ukraine as an independent country in Europe, which is causing concern and prompting a serious response from NATO. Additional troops and aircraft have been deployed to member states close to Russia, with further deployments being considered. There are talks of abandoning the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act due to Russia's actions violating it. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that Russia's actions are a serious threat to Euro-Atlantic security and additional defensive forces are being deployed. Discussions with Moscow regarding Europe's security are complicated by Russian troops on NATO's eastern flank. Even if there is a significant increase in military spending in response to the recent Russian invasion, similar to what happened after Russia annexed Crimea, the permanent deployment of forces, equipment, planes, and missiles will have a significant impact on the peace, prosperity, and complacency that the alliance has enjoyed for the past 30 years. NATO has been focused on non-core issues like climate and cyber, but it is now realizing the importance of addressing ruthless adversaries who see foreign policy as a blood sport. The organization is already revising its strategic concept and discussing a replacement for Stoltenberg, who will step down on October 1. These tasks have become more urgent as NATO reevaluates its purpose. According to Benjamin Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe, deterring a newly aggressive Russia will not be an easy task. The process of moving troops and equipment in post-Cold War Europe has become more complicated due to some bridges and railways being unable to support heavy armor. Hodges warned that political leaders may be surprised by the amount of time it takes to move equipment, especially with EU road regulations and limitations on the German rail system. Additionally, NATO lacks sufficient air and missile defenses for a modern air war that targets critical infrastructure like airports, roads, and railways. Hodges suggested that protecting the US air base at Ramstein in Germany would require an entire battalion of Patriot missiles, but there is only one available in Europe. In the past, the Fulda Gap in Germany was a major concern for Cold War strategists, as it was heavily defended by US troops to prevent the Warsaw Pact from advancing tanks from East Germany to the Rhine River. The current worry is centered on the Suwalki Corridor, a narrow passage between Poland and Lithuania that, if taken control of, would isolate the Baltic nations from NATO. This corridor separates Belarus from Kaliningrad, the base of the Russian Baltic Fleet which became disconnected from Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. There are concerns that Putin may try to establish direct access from Belarus to Kaliningrad, leading to a new Russian strategy to separate the Baltics from NATO. This poses a significant threat to Poland, prompting calls for the United States to deploy two heavy battalions in Poland and increase military presence in the Baltic states. In 2016, NATO decided to deploy battalions in Poland and the Baltic nations for the first time, known as an "enhanced forward presence." These battalions are made up of approximately 1,100 soldiers each, ready for combat but relatively small, serving more as tripwires than a significant obstacle to a Russian advance. Additionally, in 2014 NATO created a "very high readiness joint task force" led by Turkey, designed to respond quickly to threats against NATO sovereignty. This force includes a land brigade with around 5,000 troops, along with air, sea, and special forces support, with additional reinforcements able to be deployed within 30 days. However, the effectiveness of the smaller force remains unproven, and the larger Response Force it belongs to is only a quarter of the size of the Russian invasion force in Ukraine. The larger force, established in 2002 for rapid deployment, consists of 40,000 members who are based in their home countries, making it difficult to gather them quickly. There are doubts about NATO members' commitment to provide weapons to Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, as well as concerns about the potential interception of arms shipments by the Russian military. The risk of accidental confrontations and escalation in this tense environment is significant. Analysts are pointing to the incident in 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane near the Syria-Turkey border as a potential escalation point. The arms control agreements that helped keep the Cold War in check are no longer in effect, leading to new threats from conventional forces and medium-range missiles. Russia has been actively engaging in cyberwarfare, such as hacking the German Parliament and interfering in elections. These new threats highlight the need for stronger cooperation between the European Union and NATO on defense. Coordinating with the EU on areas like economic sanctions, cyber resilience, energy security, and information warfare can benefit both organizations, especially since many EU members are also part of NATO. Bond stated that while the Americans are needed, it is important not to abandon the idea of European autonomy and self-reliance. There are concerns in Europe about the possibility of President Joe Biden not running or winning again in 2024, as well as fears that a Republican aligned with former President Donald Trump's isolationist, America-first beliefs could come into power. Bond emphasized the need for Europe to increase military spending and efficiency in order to address real capability needs, stating that this is now crucial and not just a theoretical concept.