Democrats have gained control of the US House of Representatives from Trump's Republicans in the recent midterm elections, which were viewed as a judgment on his presidency thus far. This shift in power allows the opposition party to block Trump's domestic plans and investigate his business dealings and possible connections to Russia. However, Trump's authority in foreign policy is still strong, and Democrats may not be able to significantly impact his trade disputes with China or his stance on Iran. Norbert Roettgen, head of the foreign affairs committee in the German Bundestag, noted that the president's executive powers, especially in foreign policy, remain unaffected. Peter Trubowitz, director of the United States Centre at the London School of Economics, warns that if Trump is defeated in the House, he may become even more polarizing and aggressive, focusing heavily on China, Iran, and the Mexican border. Trubowitz believes that Trump's incentives have changed, leading him to prioritize foreign policy leading up to the 2020 election. Trump's first two years in office caused concern among traditional US allies due to his actions such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord, criticizing trade surpluses and defense spending of allies like Germany, and forming relationships with authoritarian leaders in North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. Although some European politicians did not openly express it, the general hope in Berlin, Paris, and Brussels was that American voters would strongly reject Trump's Republicans in the midterms, leading to a change in direction and increasing the possibility of a change in government in 2020. Some European politicians viewed the Democratic gains in the House as evidence of a shift in American politics. Frans Timmermans, the first vice president of the European Commission, stated that Americans had chosen "hope over fear, civility over rudeness, inclusion over racism". However, the results did not meet the expectations of a significant "blue wave" that some had anticipated. Despite this, Republicans were able to strengthen their majority in the Senate, a chamber that has historically had a significant impact on foreign policy. In various significant House, Senate, and governor races, Republicans closely aligned with Trump emerged victorious in states like Iowa, Florida, Georgia, and Texas. According to Roettgen, this outcome signifies a "normalisation" of Trump and confirms the success of his "hostile takeover" of the Republican Party. One way Democrats could control Trump is through Saudi Arabia, as the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has sparked backlash in Congress and threats to block arms sales. By focusing more on Russia's alleged interference in the 2016 election, Trump's ability to work with President Vladimir Putin may be limited. Additionally, Democrats in the House may push for increased sanctions against Moscow, including measures targeting European companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated with confidence that there are no positive signs of improving Russian-American relations in the near future. Trade is an area where presidents can make decisions without needing approval from Congress. European diplomats and analysts believe that President Trump may continue or escalate the conflict with China as his domestic agenda faces challenges. There is also a possibility that Trump will impose tariffs on car imports from Germany as tensions rise. A visit by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in June led to a temporary halt in trade disputes. Last month, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross claimed that the EU was hindering trade progress and mentioned that President Trump's patience was not endless. Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official and research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, stated that Trump feels strongly that the EU, particularly the Germans, are exploiting the US. Shapiro anticipates that if Trump faces challenges domestically, he will seek out new conflicts.