President Emmanuel Macron, who is 44 years old, is currently the favored candidate in the upcoming election. He has decided to delay announcing his candidacy until close to the March deadline, a strategy that reflects his preference for keeping his opponents on edge. Macron, who is comfortable in his centrist position, has observed as the right and extreme-right parties attack each other. The dominant issues in the election campaign are immigration and security, overshadowing other topics such as climate change and the country's increasing debt due to the coronavirus pandemic. Éric Zemmour, a far-right candidate, has gained popularity by spreading anti-immigrant sentiments, claiming he is the only one standing between French civilization and being overtaken by Islam and American political correctness. Similar to former President Donald Trump, Zemmour relies on continuous provocation to remain in the spotlight, as seen in his recent conversation with Trump. Despite this, Macron is currently leading in polls, with approximately 25% of the vote projected for the first round of the election on April 10. Zemmour and two other right-wing candidates are polling in the range of 12%-18%. On the other hand, left-wing parties are lagging behind and appear to be mere bystanders for the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. France, which typically leans right, has taken a sudden shift this time. According to Pascal Bruckner, an author and political philosopher, the left lost support from the popular classes due to its lack of a stance on immigration and Islam, causing many to shift to the far right. As a result, Macron is now seen as a versatile candidate who is up against the right. Macron's strong position is attributed to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the economy, with the economy growing by 7% in the last quarter and unemployment at a low of 7.4% in France. It is likely that COVID-19 measures, including mask requirements, will be lifted before the election, serving as a significant symbolic gesture. The challenge of attacking Macron lies in his ability to represent both the remaining aspects of social democracy in France and policies typically associated with the right, such as his strong stance against "Islamist separatism." Macron's flexibility has been noted by Bruno Le Maire, while his predecessor François Hollande has criticized him for shifting his beliefs. The upcoming election will see the top two candidates from the first round facing off on April 24, with a focus on securing a spot in a runoff against Macron. Marine Le Pen, a vocal anti-immigrant candidate, has been critical of rival Zemmour and accused him of supporting extremist views. Zemmour, known for his extreme belief that Islam is not compatible with France, has criticized Macron for attempting to differentiate between extremist Islamism and the religion itself. Zemmour has also criticized Macron for not accepting the idea of the "great replacement," a racist theory suggesting that white Christian populations are intentionally being replaced by nonwhite immigrants, leading to what Zemmour refers to as the "Creolization" of societies. The president is confident in his chances against either Le Pen or Zemmour, despite Zemmour's ability to challenge taboos and appeal to conservative French voters on the hard right. While France is facing challenges such as rising energy costs and pandemic fatigue, a disruptive choice like the election of Trump in the US or Brexit in Britain would come as a surprise. Retirement Paulette Brémond, who voted for Macron in 2017, is now torn between supporting the president or Zemmour. She remarked that the immigration issue is serious and she is eagerly awaiting to hear Mr. Macron's stance on it. While she doubts he will take as extreme a position as Zemmour, if he sounds effective, she may vote for him again. She feels that until Macron officially announces his candidacy, the campaign has not really begun, a sentiment shared by many in the country where political maneuvering seems like mere shadow boxing for now. This does not seem to bother the president, who has emphasized his focus on important state matters such as his diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and Mali. If Mali has been a notable disappointment, even though it is not likely to influence many voters, the Ukraine crisis has given Macron the opportunity to appear as Europe's unofficial leader in seeking positive engagement with Russia, as long as it does not escalate into war. Zemmour and Le Pen, who together make up around 30% of the vote, openly admire Putin. A member of Macron's potential reelection team, who requested anonymity as per government protocol, expressed more concern about potentially facing the center-right Republican candidate, Valérie Pécresse, in a runoff rather than facing Le Pen or Zemmour in the second round. Pécresse, a graduate of the same prestigious school as Macron, a competent two-term president of France's most populous region, and a centrist by nature, could potentially attract center-left and left-wing voters who view Macron as a traitor in the second round. However, Pécresse's chances may have been diminished by a poor performance in her first major campaign speech in Paris this month, although not necessarily irreparably. One recent poll showed her support dropping to 12% from 19% in December. Pécresse has shifted to the right due to the prevailing atmosphere in France, a country heavily impacted by Islamist terrorism. She referenced "the great replacement" in her campaign speech, causing controversy. In a TV interview, she defended herself against accusations of aligning with the extreme right. Pécresse also criticized the idea of a Macron-Zemmour duel, stating that voting for Le Pen or Zemmour ultimately supports Macron. Macron's initial presidency focused on modernizing the French economy through changes to labor laws, tax reforms, and attracting foreign investment. Following the Yellow Vest movement's protest against growing inequality and wealthy financiers, including Macron himself, who was criticized for being indifferent to widespread social suffering, the coronavirus pandemic hit. This forced Macron to shift from a free-market reformer to a proponent of state intervention, declaring in 2020 that "We have nationalized salaries" without hesitation. The consequences of these actions will need to be faced in the future, but for now, Macron, known for his tendency to shift positions frequently, appears to be enjoying the success of controlling the pandemic. “He was fortunate,” a member of his campaign team remarked. "The COVID pandemic prevented him from having to implement more unpopular reforms." While unforeseen events such as a European war, a new virus variant, a major terrorist attack, or a surge in social unrest could still occur, Macron's strategy of staying detached from the chaos appears to be successful for now. "Unless a disaster happens, it is hard to imagine Mr. Macron not being reelected," Bruckner commented. However, the true campaign will only begin when the current leader finally enters the tumultuous fray. ©2022 The New York Times Company.