The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which previously decided against reducing supply to maintain market share against higher-cost competitors, has increased its global supply projections for tight oil, including shale, in its 2015 World Oil Outlook. Despite the drop in prices, OPEC anticipates that demand for its crude oil will reach 30.70 million barrels per day in 2020, which is slightly lower than the expected 30.90 million barrels per day next year. OPEC is projected to produce about 1 million barrels per day more than the expected demand in 2020. Oil prices have significantly decreased over the past year and a half, reaching an 11-year low of $36.04 per barrel. While the drop in prices has led to increased oil consumption in the short term, OPEC believes that this demand boost will diminish over time. OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri stated in the report's foreword that the recent oil price decline has had a significant impact on demand, especially in the short term, but this impact diminishes in the medium term. OPEC is currently divided over the effectiveness of the market-share strategy implemented in 2014 by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. At a meeting on Dec 4, OPEC failed to agree on a production ceiling for the first time in decades. However, the report indicates that OPEC's medium-term outlook has improved, as they supply a third of the world's oil. The 2014 report predicted a decrease in demand for OPEC crude to 29.0 million bpd by 2020. OPEC announced that it ceased working on the report in the middle of the year and has since updated its forecast for a decline in 2016 non-OPEC supply. The report does not include Indonesia, which rejoined in December. The main figures in the report, which show OPEC's medium-term market share under pressure, remain the same as in a confidential report obtained by Reuters in November. OPEC initially underestimated the impact of shale oil, but acknowledged in its 2012 annual outlook that it could have a significant effect. Years of high prices, supported by OPEC's previous supply-cutting policy, have made non-conventional oil like shale economically viable. OPEC's latest report indicates a shift in perspective, stating that many projects are profitable at lower prices than previously thought. The report predicts that global tight oil output will increase to 5.19 million bpd by 2020, peak at 5.61 million bpd in 2030, and then decrease to 5.18 million bpd in 2040, with Argentina and Russia becoming major producers alongside North America. In a more optimistic scenario, tight oil production could expand to Mexico and China, potentially reaching almost 8 million bpd by 2040. As recently as 2013, OPEC believed that tight oil would only affect North America. The report suggests that OPEC's market share will increase in the future as rival supply growth diminishes. OPEC predicts that their crude demand will reach 40.70 million bpd by 2040, making up 37 percent of global supply, up from 33 percent in 2015. OPEC slightly raised their medium-term world oil demand forecast, anticipating oil usage to reach 97.40 million bpd by 2020, which is 500,000 bpd more than in the previous year's report. However, factors such as slower economic growth, the limited impact of crude costs on pump prices, and the weakening value of some domestic currencies against the dollar will restrict the response to lower crude prices, according to OPEC. OPEC predicts that by 2040, demand for oil will be 109.80 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million barrels per day less than the previous year due to increased energy efficiency and efforts to mitigate climate change. The report suggests that there will only be a slight increase in oil prices, with OPEC's basket of crude oils starting at $55 in 2015 and gradually increasing by $5 each year to reach $80 by 2020.