According to government data and independent research, the payments that began in July and provided hundreds of dollars a month for most families have been crucial in helping millions of American families cover expenses like food, rent, and child care, as well as keeping children out of poverty and boosting the US economy. However, as the child tax credit expansion comes to an end amid a new wave of coronavirus cases, economists are concerned about the impact on the economy and the potential hardship for families living near the poverty line. For example, Anna Lara, a mother of two in West Virginia, is anxious about the financial challenges that lie ahead. Lara, 32, who lost her job during the pandemic, finds it difficult to imagine going back to life without the extra assistance for parents. Despite her partner keeping his job, the child benefit has been crucial in helping the couple make ends meet during a time of financial strain. Lara emphasized the importance of not worrying in front of children, and the extra cushion provided by the benefit allowed them to worry less. The end of this assistance is just one of many benefits cliffs Americans have faced as pandemic aid programs come to an end, including the Paycheck Protection Program in March. Unemployment benefits were no longer available as of September, and some states ended them even earlier. The federal eviction moratorium expired during the summer. The most recent stimulus payments were distributed to Americans in the spring. In comparison to these programs, the reduction in the child tax credit is minor. The Treasury Department dispersed approximately $80 billion in checks and direct deposits over a six-month period, providing up to $300 per child each month. The child benefit program, unlike many other pandemic relief initiatives, was not meant to be temporary, according to its supporters. It was approved for one year as part of the American Rescue Plan, but many progressives hoped it would continue due to its popularity. However, public opinion on extending the program was divided along party and generational lines. The expanded tax credit did not convince Sen Joe Manchin, whose opinion was crucial, to support President Joe Biden's Build Back Better Act. Manchin expressed concerns about the cost and structure of the program, leading to his opposition. Without his support, the bill cannot move forward in the Senate. Many are disappointed by this outcome, especially supporters of the child benefit program, which has been shown to be successful in reducing child poverty and improving overall economic conditions for recipients. In the spring, Congress expanded the child tax credit by increasing the amount per child to $3,600, paying it in monthly installments, and making the full benefit available to more people who previously did not qualify due to low income. This change, known as "full refundability," is important for alleviating child poverty, especially for minority and single-parent families who were previously unable to receive the full credit. Biden's proposal aimed to make the child tax credit provision permanent, as stated by Megan Curran, director of policy at Columbia's Center on Poverty and Social Policy. The policy has shown success in reducing child poverty and food insufficiency, but it benefits not only low-income families but also couples earning up to $150,000 a year and even wealthier families. Critics of the policy, including Manchin, have argued that providing aid to relatively well-off families does not make sense. Many supporters of the credit are willing to restrict its availability to wealthier households in exchange for keeping it for poorer families. Manchin has also expressed doubts about the wisdom of giving unconditional cash payments and has privately raised concerns about recipients potentially using the money on opioids. However, a survey by the Census Bureau revealed that most recipients used the money for essential items like food and clothing, while some saved or paid off debt. Other surveys have shown similar findings. One of Manchin's constituents, Lara, received her first monthly check last year at a crucial time. Her dishwasher had just broken, and the $550 monthly government assistance she and her family received enabled them to replace it. Lara, who has a 6-year-old daughter and a 3-year-old son and whose partner earns around $40,000 annually, stated that the family had always lived on the verge of financial need - not impoverished, but unable to save enough to handle more than a minor setback. She mentioned that the monthly child benefit allowed them to step back slightly from the brink, enabling her to purchase new shoes and a car seat for her daughter, stock up on laundry detergent during sales, and repair the brakes on her car. “It's incredible that none of the warning lights are illuminated,” she remarked. Some experts have raised concerns about the effectiveness of the policy, especially in the long run. Bruce D Meyer, an economist at the University of Chicago who focuses on poverty, has suggested that while direct cash payments during the peak of the pandemic were necessary, a permanent policy of giving unconditional cash to parents could have unintended negative effects. Meyer and his colleagues recently published a study showing that the child benefit might discourage individuals from working, partly because it removes the work incentives that were previously included in the tax credit. Meyer explained, "Initially, our priority was to provide financial assistance to people - we were concerned about a recession and people's ability to afford groceries." He stated that it is important to consider the long-term impacts, particularly on labor supply. However, studies on the new child benefit have not shown any evidence that it discourages people from working. In fact, some researchers believe it could actually encourage more people to work by making child care more affordable for parents. Samuel Hammond of the Niskanen Center in Washington stated that the child tax credit enables work in the current labor market and has not been proven otherwise. He also believes the child benefit will have broader economic benefits, estimating that it could increase consumer spending by $27 billion nationally and create 500,000 full-time jobs. The largest impact would be seen in rural states with larger families and lower incomes. Some Republican critics, such as Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, believe that the expanded child tax credit has led to increased spending and contributed to inflation by providing people with more money to spend during a time when the supply chain is already strained. However, many economists are doubtful that the tax credit has significantly impacted inflation, as it is relatively small compared to the economy and previous rounds of pandemic aid. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM, described the program as noninflationary and focused on essentials rather than luxuries. Despite concerns about inflation, recipients of the benefit argue for its continuation, citing rising prices for groceries, utilities, and gas, which have stretched their budgets even further. She stated that at the moment, both of her vehicles require fuel, and she is unable to fill up the car. However, she mentioned that she has groceries at home and her children can play outside, so everything is fine.