Ankara is set to hold a crucial parliamentary election on Sunday, with the ruling AK Party facing off against the secular elite. The AK Party is expected to win, but likely with a smaller majority that may not be enough to change the constitution. This has led to positive reactions in Turkish financial markets. Investors support the party's economic policies but are wary of potential conflicts with secularists, including the military. The European Union is monitoring the election closely, hoping for a new government that can jumpstart Turkey's reform process, which has been stagnant. Some analysts believe that investors are not taking the risks seriously. According to Wolfango Piccoli of Eurasia Group, the upcoming elections in Turkey will not resolve the institutional deadlock, and the country's issues have only been delayed. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was forced to hold early elections after facing opposition from the secular elite. The new parliament is now tasked with electing the next president of Turkey. Secularists are concerned that Erdogan and Gul may undermine the separation of state and religion, although both men deny this claim. If the AK Party were to secure a majority of two thirds or more, they would have the ability to make changes to Turkey's secular constitution and appoint their presidential candidate without considering opposition objections. To alleviate concerns from secularists and appeal to the urban middle class, Erdogan has removed many of the more Islamist-oriented members of his party and has nominated more centrist and female candidates for the upcoming election. Erdogan has also hinted at the possibility of compromising on the presidency, which has traditionally been a stronghold for secularists. Despite polls indicating that the AK Party may receive around 40 percent of the vote, an increase from the 34 percent they received in 2002, it is expected that they will secure fewer seats in parliament due to more parties surpassing the 10 percent threshold. The main opposition party, the centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP), the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and a significant number of independent, mostly pro-Kurdish candidates are expected to win seats in the 550-member parliament. According to Ayse Ayata, a professor at Ankara's Middle East Technical University, the upcoming parliament is likely to be characterized by polarisation. Ayata suggests that a coalition government could help reduce this polarisation. A total of 42.5 million Turks will have the opportunity to vote in the election, out of a population of 74 million. Additionally, four million young people will be participating in a national election for the first time. Analysts anticipate confrontations between the AK Party ex-Islamists and the arch-secularists of the CHP, as well as heated debates between Kurdish deputies advocating for more rights for their community and MHP ultra-nationalists who see these demands as a direct threat to Turkish national security and identity. Mehmet Ali Birand, a seasoned TV commentator, believes that the new parliament will test whether Turks and Kurds can come to a consensus on resolving the Kurdish issue. The ongoing conflict between Turkish security forces and Kurdish separatist rebels in the southeast region, which has resulted in over 30,000 deaths since 1984, remains a pressing issue. Despite the nationalist focus in current election rallies, there has been little mention of Turkey's EU membership aspirations, indicating a growing public disillusionment with the EU project.