A group of US economists has stated that China is emitting more carbon dioxide (CO2) than previously thought, which will hinder global efforts to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases. China is the world's second-largest CO2 emitter, with some studies suggesting it may have already surpassed the United States. The report may lead to increased pressure for China to commit to mandatory emissions reductions, a step it has so far resisted. Researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, and UC San Diego have predicted that China's CO2 emissions will increase by at least 11 percent annually between 2004 and 2010, significantly higher than previous estimates used by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The article is being released at a time when energy and environment ministers from the top 20 greenhouse gas emitting nations are getting ready to meet in Japan to discuss climate change, clean energy, and sustainable development. These countries, including the United States, China, Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa, are responsible for about 80 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. There is increasing pressure on these nations to come to an agreement to stop and reverse the rising levels of CO2 emissions, which are the main cause of global warming. According to U.S. researchers mentioned in the article, China is expected to see a 600 million metric ton increase in CO2 emissions by 2010 compared to 2000 levels. This increase from China alone would outweigh the 116 million metric ton reduction in carbon emissions that all developed countries combined pledged to achieve under the Kyoto Protocol during its first commitment phase from 2008 to 2012. According to the text, China is not required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 2008-2012 as part of the Kyoto agreement. However, China, along with almost 190 other countries, agreed in Bali in December to participate in two years of discussions led by the United Nations to develop a global agreement to combat emissions starting in 2013. The researchers analyzed pollution data from 30 provinces in China and the country's official emissions data to gain a more detailed understanding of CO2 emissions up to 2004. Maximillian Auffhammer, an assistant professor at UC Berkeley, had anticipated that China's power generation efficiency would improve as income per person increased, which would slow the growth of CO2 emissions. However, the data showed that emissions growth was actually exceeding expectations, making it much more challenging to achieve the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels. According to the report, one of the issues was the decision to allow provinces more control over constructing power plants after 2000. Wealthier coastal provinces opted for modern, clean-burning technology while poorer interior provinces chose outdated Soviet technology from the 1950s. Richard Carson, an economics professor at UC San Diego, highlighted the problem of long-lasting power plants locking provinces into higher emissions levels than expected. China is now facing the consequences of having many inefficient and polluting power plants.