President Emmanuel Macron, who is 44 years old, is a popular choice and has decided to delay announcing his candidacy until close to the March deadline. This is just one way he enjoys keeping his opponents guessing. Macron is comfortable in his central position and has observed the right and extreme-right parties attacking each other. The focus on immigration and security has pushed other issues, such as climate change and France's increasing debt due to the coronavirus crisis, to the background. Éric Zemmour, a far-right candidate, believes that naming a child "Mohammed" is a form of colonization in France. He presents himself as the only one who can protect French civilization from being taken over by Islam and American political correctness. Similar to former President Donald Trump, Zemmour maintains his position in the news by constantly provoking, as evidenced by his recent conversation with Trump. Despite this, Macron is currently leading in polls with approximately 25% of the vote in the upcoming election on April 10th. Zemmour and two other right-wing candidates are polling in the 12%-18% range. On the other hand, left-wing parties are lagging behind and appear to be mere spectators for the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. While France typically leans right, this time the political landscape has shifted. Pascal Bruckner, an author and political philosopher, stated that the left lost the support of the popular classes due to its lack of response on immigration and Islam, causing many to shift to the far right. As a result, Macron is now facing off against the right as an unpredictable figure. Macron's perceived success in handling the coronavirus pandemic and navigating economic challenges has strengthened his position. With the economy growing by 7% in the last quarter and unemployment at a low 7.4%, Macron appears to be in a strong position. It is likely that COVID-19 restrictions, including mask mandates in public places, will be lifted before the election, serving as a significant symbolic gesture. The difficulty of attacking Macron lies in his ability to embody elements of both social democracy and right-wing policies in France. He has been praised for his flexibility by some, while others criticize him for shifting his convictions. The upcoming election will see a fierce battle on the right for a chance to face Macron in the runoff. Marine Le Pen has become a strong critic of rival Zemmour, accusing him of having Nazi supporters and seeking to destroy her political party. Zemmour, known for his extreme belief that Islam is not compatible with France, has mocked Macron for attempting to differentiate between extremist Islamism and the religion itself. Zemmour has criticized Macron for not accepting the idea of the "great replacement" theory, which suggests that white Christian populations are intentionally being replaced by nonwhite immigrants, leading to what Zemmour describes as the "Creolization" of societies. The president is confident in his chances against both Le Pen and Zemmour, despite Zemmour's ability to challenge taboos and appeal to conservative voters. France is facing challenges such as rising energy costs and fatigue from the pandemic, but a disruptive choice like the election of Trump in the US or Brexit in the UK would be unexpected. A retiree named Paulette Brémond, who voted for Macron in 2017, is torn between supporting the president and Zemmour. She mentioned that the issue of immigration is serious and she is eager to hear what Mr. Macron has to say about it. She believes he may not take as extreme a stance as Zemmour, but if his approach is effective, she may vote for him again. She feels that the campaign has not truly begun until Macron officially announces his candidacy, which is a common feeling in a country where political maneuvering can feel like a mere simulation. Despite this, the president is focused on important state matters such as his role in diplomatic efforts to prevent a war in Ukraine and his involvement in ending the French anti-terrorist campaign in Mali. If Mali's failure has been noticeable, although it is unlikely to affect many voters, the Ukraine crisis, as long as it doesn't escalate to war, has allowed Macron to be seen as Europe's leader in efforts to engage constructively with Russia. Zemmour and Le Pen, who together make up approximately 30% of the vote, openly admire Putin. A member of Macron's potential reelection team, speaking anonymously as per government protocol, expressed more concern about a potential runoff against centre-right Republican candidate Valérie Pécresse than facing Le Pen or Zemmour in the second round. Pécresse, a graduate of the same prestigious school as Macron, a competent two-term president of France's most populous region, and a centrist by nature, may attract centre-left and left-wing voters who see Macron as a betrayer in the second round. However, Pécresse's chances appear to have been damaged by a poor performance in her first major campaign speech in Paris this month, although not necessarily beyond repair. One recent poll showed that Pécresse's voter support has decreased from 19% in December to 12%. Pécresse has shifted towards right-wing views due to the prevalent atmosphere in France, which has been heavily impacted by Islamist terrorism. She referenced "the great replacement" in her campaign speech, leading to criticism. She stated in a TV interview that she will not participate in a Macron-Zemmour rivalry, as she believes voting for Le Pen or Zemmour ultimately supports Macron. Macron's initial presidency focused on reforming the French state-centric model by making it easier to hire and fire, eliminating the wealth tax, and implementing policies to attract foreign investment and boost the economy. Revolt came next, in the form of the Yellow Vest movement which protested against increasing inequality and wealthy financiers like Macron, who was once part of that group and was seen as indifferent to widespread social suffering. Shortly after the protest subsided, the coronavirus pandemic hit, causing Macron to shift from a free-market reformer to a proponent of state intervention, declaring in 2020 that "We have nationalised salaries" without hesitation. The consequences of such actions will eventually need to be faced, but for now, Macron, known for constantly changing his stance on issues, appears to be enjoying the success of his handling of the pandemic. "He was fortunate," stated a member of his campaign team. The COVID pandemic prevented him from having to implement more unpopular reforms. Although there are still potential threats such as a European war, a new virus variant, a major terrorist attack, or a resurgence of social unrest, Macron's strategy of staying detached from the chaos seems to be effective for now. "Unless a disaster occurs, it is difficult to see how Mr. Macron will not be reelected," Bruckner commented. However, the true campaign will only begin once the current leader enters the tumultuous arena. ©2022 The New York Times Company.