Australia's conservative Prime Minister John Howard is facing a decline in support as opinion polls favor his new rival, Kevin Rudd. Despite this setback, analysts believe Howard still has a chance to win a fifth term in office during the upcoming national elections in the second half of 2007. Howard, 67, has experienced his worst poll ratings in six years and has struggled against Rudd, 49, who became leader of the Labour opposition party in December. Rudd's promises to withdraw Australian forces from Iraq and sign the Kyoto protocol on climate change have boosted his party's chances of victory. However, analysts predict that Howard, known for his economic policies and national security focus, will regain support as the election approaches. Monash University political analyst Nick Economou stated that the fate of the government lies in the hands of the Reserve Bank. With Australia experiencing record-low unemployment and easing inflationary pressures, supporters of Howard are hopeful that the central bank will cease its cycle of interest rate hikes and consider a rate cut by the end of the year. Economou suggested that an early rate cut could be detrimental for Labour, causing Howard to call for early elections as soon as August. However, it is more likely that the government will use its May budget to shift the focus of the debate back to the economy. Economou speculated that the government may propose significant tax cuts to redirect the conversation towards the economy, which plays to Howard's strengths. The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which analyzes the three main published opinion polls in Australia, revealed that Howard's Liberal-National Party coalition was trailing Labour by 13.4 points in February - the worst result for the government since March 2001. The latest poll results show that Howard's strong lead as the preferred prime minister has dwindled, with Rudd now ahead for the first time since May 2001. Howard's slip-up in parliament, where he initially denied a connection between greenhouse gases and global warming before later correcting himself, has caused further scrutiny on his government's stance on environmental issues. Additionally, Howard's recent comments criticizing Barack Obama's plan to withdraw US forces from Iraq have stirred controversy both at home and abroad, risking Australia-US relations due to his close ties to President George W. Bush. Laura Tingle, the chief political correspondent for the Australian Financial Review, wrote on Friday that the government has had a challenging fortnight. Despite relying on their usual strengths of economic management, national security, and leadership, they have not been very effective. Former diplomat Kevin Rudd has emphasized his youth and family image, while John Howard has highlighted his experience compared to Rudd's inexperience. Greg Craven, a government professor at Curtin University, pointed out that Rudd, who may have appeared middle-aged as a child, is now focusing on Howard's age as a weakness for the government. According to Craven, he is getting older and appears to be aging faster. Howard has overcome similar poll slumps in the past and analysts caution against prematurely counting him out. Economou believes Howard is in a better position on defense and foreign policy, with the economic debate still to come.