It was previously reported that Elon Musk's SpaceX would be responsible for creating a crater on the lunar surface, but it is now believed that a piece of a rocket launched by China's space agency is the likely cause. Bill Gray, the developer of Project Pluto, announced last month that the upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was on a trajectory to intersect with the moon's path. This rocket had launched the Deep Space Climate Observatory for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in February 2015. Gray had been monitoring this rocket part for years, and in early January, it came within 6,000 miles of the moon's surface, causing the moon's gravity to alter its path towards a potential crash on a subsequent orbit. Reports from amateur astronomers who witnessed the object passing Earth once again confirmed the imminent collision within Hertzsprung, a large crater measuring 315 miles in diameter. However, a communication received on Saturday from Jon Giorgini, an engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, provided a different perspective. Giorgini oversees Horizons, an online database capable of generating orbits and locations for nearly 1.2 million objects within the solar system, including approximately 200 spacecraft. When a user inquired about the likelihood of the object being associated with the DSCOVR rocket, Giorgini decided to investigate further. He discovered that the orbit didn't match the path DSCOVR took, so he reached out to Gray. Gray initially believed he was correct, but he reviewed his old emails to recall when the object was first seen in March 2015, shortly after the launch of DSCOVR. Typically, new objects seen in the sky are asteroids, and this object was also assumed to be one. It was labeled WE0913A. However, it was discovered that WE0913A was actually in orbit around Earth, not the sun, making it more likely to have originated from Earth. Gray suggested that it could be a part of the rocket that launched DSCOVR. Additional data showed that WE0913A passed by the moon two days after DSCOVR was launched, further supporting this theory. Gray now understands that he was mistaken in assuming DSCOVR was launched on a trajectory toward the moon, using its gravity to propel the spacecraft to its final destination 1 million miles from Earth where it monitors solar storms. Giorgini clarified that DSCOVR was actually launched on a direct path that did not involve passing by the moon. Gray expressed regret for not reviewing the information before making his January announcement, acknowledging that he had made a mistake. SpaceX did not comment on the situation, but it is likely that they were not monitoring the rocket stage in question as it is typically burned up in the atmosphere. The rocket needed all of its propellant to deliver DSCOVR to its destination. However, the unpowered and uncontrolled second stage of the rocket was in an orbit that posed no threat to satellites, and likely went unnoticed by most people. Gray expressed a desire for transparency from companies launching boosters into high orbits, so that he wouldn't have to search for information on his own. Gray then investigated other recent launches, particularly those headed towards the moon, but found very few in that category. The leading candidate for the mission was a Long March 3C rocket that launched China's Chang'e-5 T1 spacecraft on October 23, 2014. The spacecraft circled the moon before returning to Earth, releasing a small return capsule that landed in Mongolia. This test was a precursor to the successful Chang'e-5 mission in 2020, which collected moon rocks and dust for study on Earth. By running a computer simulation of the orbit of WE0913A, it was determined that it would have passed close to the moon on October 28, just five days after the Chinese launch. Additionally, data from a cubesat attached to the rocket's third stage closely matched that of WE0913A. The case is strong enough to bring to a jury for a conviction, according to recent observations that have slightly adjusted the predicted time and location of impact on the moon. Christophe Demeautis, an amateur astronomer in northeast France, believes it is still the same object. There is no chance of it missing the moon, with the crash expected to occur at 7:26 am Eastern time. However, the impact will be on the far side of the moon, out of view of Earth's telescopes and satellites. The whereabouts of the Falcon 9 part, specifically the DSCOVR second stage, are still being investigated. It is most likely that the object ended up circling the sun instead of the Earth, and it may still be in orbit. This would make it currently out of sight. There have been instances of old rocket pieces reappearing, such as in 2020 when a mystery object was found to be from a rocket launched in 1966 for NASA's Surveyor missions to the moon.