President Emmanuel Macron, aged 44, is the favored candidate who has chosen to remain distant from the ongoing conflict, delaying his announcement to run until close to the March deadline. This is another tactic to maintain an element of surprise for his opponents. Macron, comfortable in his moderate position, has observed the right and far-right factions attacking each other. The focus on immigration and security has overshadowed other important issues like climate change and the increasing debt due to the pandemic. Éric Zemmour, a far-right candidate, has gained popularity by spreading anti-immigrant sentiments, claiming that naming a child "Mohammed" is a form of colonization in France. Zemmour believes he is the only one standing in the way of French civilization being taken over by Islam and American political correctness. Similar to former President Donald Trump, Zemmour employs continuous provocation to remain in the spotlight, as evidenced by his recent conversation with Trump. However, current polls indicate that Macron is leading with approximately 25% of the vote in the upcoming election on April 10. Zemmour and two other right-wing candidates are polling in the 12%-18% range. On the other hand, left-wing parties are lagging behind and appear to be mere spectators for the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. While France typically has a right-leaning tendency, this time there has been a significant shift. Pascal Bruckner, an author and political philosopher, stated that the left lost support from the popular classes due to its lack of response on immigration and Islam, leading many to shift to the far right. As a result, Macron is now seen as a versatile leader facing off against the right. Macron is currently benefiting from the perception that he has effectively managed the coronavirus pandemic and economic challenges, making him appear stronger than he has in a while. The economy grew by 7% in the last quarter, and unemployment is at a low rate of 7.4% in France. It is likely that COVID-19 restrictions, such as mask requirements in public places, will be lifted before the election, which would hold significant symbolic value. It is difficult to attack Macron because he represents both what is left of social democracy in France and policies embraced by the right, such as his tough stance against "Islamist separatism." Macron has been described as flexible in his beliefs, with some criticizing him for shifting positions. The upcoming election will see a fierce battle on the right for a second-place spot in the runoff against Macron. Marine Le Pen has become a strong critic of Zemmour, accusing him of having supporters who are Nazis and seeking the downfall of her party. Zemmour, known for his extreme belief that Islam is not compatible with France, has mocked Macron for attempting to differentiate between extremist Islamism and the religion itself. Zemmour has criticized Macron for not accepting the concept of the "great replacement," a racist theory claiming that white Christian populations are deliberately being replaced by nonwhite immigrants, resulting in what Zemmour refers to as the "Creolization" of societies. The president is confident in his chances against either Le Pen or Zemmour, despite Zemmour's ability to appeal to conservative French voters. France is facing challenges such as increasing energy costs and pandemic fatigue, but a radical choice like voting for Trump in the US or choosing Brexit in the UK would be unexpected. Retiree Paulette Brémond, who voted for Macron in 2017, is undecided between the president and Zemmour. She expressed concern about the seriousness of the immigration issue and mentioned that she is waiting to hear Mr. Macron's stance on it. She believes that while Macron may not be as extreme as Zemmour, if he appears effective, she may vote for him again. She feels that the campaign has not truly begun until Macron announces his candidacy, a sentiment shared by many in the country. Macron, on the other hand, seems unconcerned with the political jostling and has focused on matters of state such as his diplomatic efforts with Putin to prevent war in Ukraine and ending the French anti-terrorist campaign in Mali. If Mali has been a noticeable failure, though not likely to impact many voters, the Ukraine crisis has allowed Macron to appear as Europe's leader in pursuing positive relations with Russia, as long as it does not escalate into war. Zemmour and Le Pen, who together represent approximately 30% of the vote, openly admire Putin. A member of Macron's potential reelection team, speaking anonymously as is customary, expressed more concern about potentially facing the centre-right Republican candidate, Valérie Pécresse, in a runoff rather than Le Pen or Zemmour in the second round. Pécresse, a graduate of the same prestigious school as Macron, a competent two-term president of France's most populous region, and a centrist by nature, could attract centre-left and left-wing voters who view Macron as a betrayer. However, Pécresse's lackluster performance in her recent major campaign speech in Paris seems to have harmed her chances, though not necessarily beyond repair. One recent poll showed that Pécresse's support has dropped to 12% from 19% in December. She has shifted towards right-wing positions due to the rise of Islamist terrorism in France. Pécresse referenced "the great replacement" in her campaign speech, leading to criticism. She expressed her opposition to a Macron-Zemmour presidential duel, stating that voting for Le Pen or Zemmour is essentially voting for Macron. Macron's first term focused on reforming the French state by making it easier to hire and fire, eliminating the wealth tax, and attracting foreign investment. The Yellow Vest movement emerged as a response to growing inequality and criticized global financiers, including Macron. Following this, the coronavirus pandemic led Macron to shift from a free-market reformer to a proponent of state intervention, declaring in 2020 that salaries had been nationalized. The financial consequences of these actions will eventually need to be faced, but for now Macron is enjoying the apparent success in controlling the pandemic. "He was fortunate," stated a member of his campaign team. "The COVID-19 pandemic prevented him from having to implement more unpopular reforms." While anything could still happen, such as a European war, a new variant of the virus, a major terrorist attack, or a surge in social unrest, Macron's strategy of staying detached from the chaos appears to be effective for now. "Unless a disaster occurs, I can't see how Mr. Macron won't be reelected," Bruckner remarked. However, the real campaign will only begin when the current leader finally enters the turbulent political arena. ©2022 The New York Times Company.