The popularity of Australia's conservative Prime Minister John Howard has declined in recent opinion polls, with support shifting towards his new rival Kevin Rudd. Despite this, analysts believe that Howard still has a chance to win a fifth term in office in the upcoming national elections. Howard, 67, has faced a significant drop in poll numbers, particularly against Rudd, 49, who became the leader of the centre-left Labour opposition party in December. Rudd has garnered support with promises to withdraw Australian troops from Iraq and sign the Kyoto protocol on climate change. However, analysts believe that Howard can regain support when voters focus on his strengths in the economy and national security. Monash University political analyst Nick Economou stated that the government's fate lies in the hands of the Reserve Bank. With unemployment at a record low and inflationary pressures easing in Australia, supporters of Howard are optimistic that the central bank will cease its cycle of interest rate hikes and possibly consider a rate cut by the end of the year. Economou suggested that an early rate cut could be detrimental for Labour and might prompt Howard to call for elections as soon as August. However, it is more likely that the government will use its May budget to shift the focus back to the economy. Economou speculated that the government may announce significant tax cuts in the budget, which would redirect the debate back to the economy and play to Howard's strengths. According to the latest Reuters Poll Trend, Howard's Liberal-National Party coalition was trailing Labour by 13.4 points in February, marking the worst result for the government since March 2001. The latest polls indicate that Howard's lead as preferred prime minister has diminished to Rudd, marking the first time since May 2001 that Howard has fallen behind. Howard seemed shaken by the February polls, as evidenced by a rare mistake in parliament where he initially denied a link between greenhouse gases and global warming. Although he later corrected himself, the damage was done as his comments were already broadcast on evening news bulletins, further weakening his government's support on environmental issues. Additionally, Howard faced criticism and backlash for his unscripted remarks regarding Barack Obama's plan to withdraw US troops from Iraq in 2008, sparking a heated debate and accusations of meddling in US politics, which in turn put Australia-US relations at risk due to his close ties with President George W. Bush. Laura Tingle, the chief political correspondent for the Australian Financial Review, stated that the government has had a challenging fortnight. They have relied on their usual strategies of economic management, national security, and leadership, but they have not been very effective. Kevin Rudd, a former diplomat who speaks Mandarin, has emphasized his youth and family image, while John Howard has focused on his experience compared to Rudd's inexperience. Greg Craven, a government professor at Curtin University, pointed out that Rudd has highlighted Howard's age as a weakness for the government. Craven stated that he is getting old and appears to be aging rapidly. Howard has overcome similar poll slumps in the past and analysts believe it is premature to count him out politically. Economou noted that Howard has experience in defense and foreign policy and there is still more to discuss regarding the economy.