The Turkish people will vote for a new parliament on Sunday in what is seen as a crucial election due to the ongoing conflict between the ruling AK Party and the secular elite. The AK Party is expected to win, but with a smaller majority, which has led to a positive response from financial markets. Investors support the party's economic policies but are concerned about potential tensions with secularists if the AK Party gains a large majority. The European Union is monitoring the election closely in hopes that a new government will jumpstart Turkey's reform process. According to some analysts, investors are not sufficiently concerned about the risks involved in the upcoming elections. Wolfango Piccoli from Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, believes that the elections will not resolve Turkey's institutional deadlock and that the country's issues have simply been delayed. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan had to call for early elections after facing opposition from the secular elite, who were against his choice for the next president. The new parliament will now be responsible for electing Turkey's next president. Secularists are worried that Erdogan and Gul, who have ties to Islamism, aim to weaken the separation of state and religion in Turkey, although both men have denied these claims. The AK Party could potentially make changes to Turkey's secular constitution and secure their presidential candidate with a majority of two thirds or more, disregarding opposition concerns. In an effort to ease fears among secularists and appeal to the urban middle class, Erdogan has replaced some of the more Islamist members of his party with centrist and female candidates for this election. Erdogan has also shown willingness to compromise on the presidency, which has typically been controlled by secularists. Despite polling at around 40 percent, up from 34 percent in the 2002 election, the AK Party may end up with fewer seats due to more parties expected to pass the 10 percent threshold to enter parliament. Polarisation is expected in the upcoming parliamentary elections, with the main opposition party, centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP), far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and pro-Kurdish candidates all likely to win seats. According to Ayse Ayata, a professor at Ankara's Middle East Technical University, the parliament is expected to be divided along polarities, and she believes a coalition government could help reduce polarization. 42.5 million Turks will be eligible to vote, out of a total population of 74 million, with four million young people participating in a national election for the first time. Analysts anticipate that there will be heated debates in the new parliament between the AK Party ex-Islamists and the arch-secularists of the CHP, as well as between Kurdish deputies advocating for more rights for their community and the MHP ultra-nationalists who see these demands as a threat to Turkish national security and identity. Mehmet Ali Birand, a veteran TV commentator, believes that the new parliament will be a significant test of whether Turks and Kurds can come to an agreement on resolving the Kurdish issue, which has been a source of conflict for decades. The conflict between Turkish security forces and Kurdish separatist rebels in the southeast region has resulted in over 30,000 deaths since 1984. Despite the focus on terrorism in election rallies, there has been little mention of Turkey's EU membership bid, indicating a growing disinterest in the EU project among the public.