Critics suggest that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who initially promised cautious reforms upon taking office, may actually be keeping the Kremlin seat warm for a return by Vladimir Putin. Despite being almost halfway through his term, there is little evidence that Medvedev is making progress on opening up Russia's political system, modernizing its economy, combating corruption, and establishing the rule of law. Opposition leaders have labeled the recent local elections in October as the dirtiest in Russia's history, while NGOs and business leaders report that corruption remains rampant. Additionally, Kremlin-aligned regional leaders accused of misconduct have been reappointed to their positions. Every day, there are reports of police and court power being abused. According to Vladimir Ryzhkov, who was the last independent deputy in the Russian parliament until he was unable to run for reelection in 2007 due to changes in election law, Medvedev has not shown a real desire to reform. He is only making minor changes to give the appearance of reform without actually implementing any significant changes. The Kremlin stated that they are preparing detailed information to highlight Medvedev's achievements since his election in March 2008, but this information is not currently available. Medvedev's spokeswoman, Natalya Timakova, mentioned that the president plans to focus on political system reforms, improving the investment climate, stabilizing the North Caucasus region, and finalizing a nuclear arms agreement with Washington this year. An analysis by the Interfax news agency found that Russian state-run media has been attempting to improve the president's reputation. The analysis noted that mentions of Medvedev in Russian media last year were more frequent than those of Putin. However, pollsters suggest that Putin's popularity among the general population has been boosted by the economic growth and stability experienced during his presidency from 2000 to 2008. This popularity has continued during Putin's current role as prime minister. The elite in Russia also hold Putin in high regard, as evidenced by Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov's recent comments in a Reuters interview praising Putin as a "very strong leader of world stature." He did not mention Medvedev. Western powers had hoped that Medvedev would be more flexible and accommodating than Putin, but those hopes quickly faded when Medvedev led Russia into a conflict with Georgia in 2008. Last year, Moscow raised expectations for entering the World Trade Organization, signing a nuclear arms reduction treaty with the United States, and agreeing to harsh sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program, but has not followed through on any of these agreements. Officials say that in each case, Putin had the final say, not Medvedev, revealing where the true power lies in Russia's ruling partnership. Officials from both the Kremlin and the White House, which is Putin's prime ministerial offices, publicly assert that the "tandem" is a close and productive working relationship between two equals who have respect for each other's constitutional areas of expertise. For instance, Medvedev recently called a meeting to discuss reforms to Russia's political system, which is mainly controlled by the Kremlin's United Russia bloc, likened by critics to the Soviet-era Communist Party. However, Putin had the final say, emphasizing the importance of carefully considering any changes to the political system and ensuring it remains stable and not easily influenced. According to a senior diplomat, Putin's message was straightforward: there will be no significant political reforms in Russia. Investors are also aware of where the power lies. When asked about the potential reaction of Russian markets to a departure by Medvedev, a chief strategist at a Moscow bank said it would not have much impact. However, the same strategist predicted chaos if Putin were to leave. However, the frequent differences in public demeanor between Putin and Medvedev have led some observers of Russia to speculate about disagreements between them, or even suggest that there might be a power struggle occurring within the elite. Supporters of Medvedev are particularly eager to promote this idea in order to enhance his image as a reformer, according to diplomats. According to this narrative, Medvedev's lack of progress in implementing reforms is attributed to his cautious approach so as not to antagonize Putin. Advocates for the president argue that Medvedev will eventually take more decisive action at an unspecified point in the future. However, many individuals with connections to those in power dismiss such speculation. Opposition journalist Yulia Latynina argues that there cannot be a real struggle between a man in power (Putin) and a man without power (Medvedev). Critics also believe that Medvedev, an experienced insider who has worked closely with Putin for nearly two decades, is unlikely to have a hidden reform agenda that he has not shared with his well-informed boss, a former KGB spy. Many analysts predict that unless there is a major financial crisis, Putin will likely return to the presidency in 2012, taking advantage of a constitutional reform that extended the term of the Kremlin chief to six years, which was the most significant political reform enacted by Medvedev. If re-elected, Putin, who is currently 57 years old, could remain in office until 2024 before being required to step down by the constitution. Olga Kryshtanovskaya, an expert on the Russian elite and a member of United Russia, stated that Putin is more popular and trusted than Medvedev. I recently returned from a trip to the provinces where I found that the general belief is that Putin will return in 2012. This is a popular opinion that I also hold, as I believe Putin has greater resources and support.