There is increasing speculation that Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard may be removed from her position by her party before the end of the year. This has led senior ministers to publicly show their support for Gillard following a challenging start to 2012. Despite media reports suggesting that Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd may challenge her leadership, Defense Minister Stephen Smith and other cabinet ministers have expressed their backing for Gillard. Many political analysts now believe it is unlikely that Gillard will lead her party into the next election, scheduled for the second half of 2013, with a potential leadership change expected later in the year. According to Monash University political analyst Nick Economou, some MPs are beginning to worry and believe that Gillard's leadership may not last until the next election. The initial major opinion polls for 2012 showed government backing at a standstill near all-time lows. Online bookmakers Sportsbet revealed that the odds of Rudd becoming leader again by the end of the year have decreased to $1.20 for a $1.00 bet. Smith, who expressed strong support for the Prime Minister, stated that she is performing well despite challenging circumstances. Other ministers, including Greg Combet, Stephen Conroy, and Simon Crean, have also urged an end to party discord, with Crean criticizing Rudd for not being a team player. Despite being ousted as prime minister due to his government's struggles with reforms, polls indicate that Rudd remains popular with voters despite being viewed as a lone operator by his Labor colleagues. The government is facing a dilemma because Gillard governs with support from two independents and the Greens, and any leadership change could result in a change of government or an early election if a new leader cannot negotiate similar support. This means that a leadership spill could lead to a change of government, with the conservative opposition planning to abolish a new 30 percent mining tax and a carbon tax set to begin on July 1. Gillard dismissed the recent rumors on Friday, stating that she is focused on delivering good policy and does not pay attention to media chatter. Despite a challenging end to 2011, Gillard's position was strengthened as a disaffected opposition member became parliamentary speaker, increasing her majority from one vote to three. However, her performance in 2012 has been lackluster. She lost the backing of an independent in January due to breaking a promise to alter gambling laws, and later had a staff member resign for his involvement in a disruptive protest against Opposition Leader Tony Abbott. This has left the government with a slim majority in parliament and facing scrutiny over a lawmaker involved in a police investigation regarding union funds and prostitution. Additionally, economic challenges such as declining house prices and job cuts persist, but there may be some relief if the central bank lowers interest rates as predicted. While there has been a shift in support away from Gillard, many Labor lawmakers remain strongly opposed to Rudd. Tingle wrote on Friday that there has been a shift in sentiment against Julia Gillard, with a quiet but strong threat. Economou mentioned that any action against Gillard is not expected until July, when both the carbon tax and mining tax are implemented. This timeline would give Labor the opportunity to present its budget in May and focus on campaigning for the Queensland state election on March 24, where polls indicate Labor may lose power. Economou warned that the real challenge for Gillard will come after the carbon tax is in effect, and if there is no improvement by then, she may have to step down.