The purchase of a greenhouse in Exeter three years ago was expected to bring high-paying jobs and make the community a major hub for Canada's legal pot industry. However, before any of the anticipated jobs were filled or any marijuana seeds were planted, it was clear that Canada was already producing more marijuana than the market demanded. The greenhouse sat empty for two years before being sold for significantly less than its original purchase price. This experience in Exeter reflects the challenges faced by Canada's legal pot industry as a whole, with high expectations followed by disappointment. Analysts attribute this to the tightly regulated distribution system in Canada, which restricts advertising and marketing. The slow opening of stores in certain provinces, especially Ontario, is contributing to the delay. Additionally, surveys indicate that a large number of Canadians are not interested in trying out a new habit. The mayor, George Finch, expressed disappointment, mentioning that they were excited about it but it seems like it was too good to be true. When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government legalized marijuana in 2018, the main objective was to achieve a fairer justice system rather than to create a significant new business sector. However, investors had a different perspective, and prior to legalization, there was a surge of interest in the Toronto Stock Exchange known as the "green rush." This led to a influx of funds into companies catering to the Canadian market and looking at opportunities in the US as more states were embracing legalization. Abandoned greenhouses were renovated and sold at high prices, like the one in Exeter, while new indoor growing facilities emerged nationwide. Newspapers, which had been reducing staff, hired journalists to cover the emerging marijuana industry. Similar to the plastics industry in the movie "The Graduate," marijuana was expected to be the next big thing in Canada. The hype around investments in the industry resembled the dot-com stock boom of the late 1990s, but ultimately led to a similar crash. Despite some recovery due to increasing legalization in the United States, with New York legalizing marijuana recently and four states voting for legalization in November, one marijuana stock index remains significantly lower than its peak in 2018. Even 2 1/2 years after legalization, most marijuana producers in Canada are still experiencing substantial financial losses. A significant new rival is on the horizon; Mexico recently approved the use of recreational marijuana. This could make the business environment even more difficult for Canadian growers. According to Kyle Murray, vice dean at the University of Alberta School of Business, there may be a series of industry shakeouts ahead. The situation is reminiscent of the dot-com boom and subsequent bust. Canopy Growth, the largest producer in Canada, reported a loss of CA$1.2 billion in the first nine months of its current operating year. Layoffs have affected the industry, leading to mergers among large producers in an effort to increase strength through size. Many greenhouses in various provinces have permanently shut down. Analysts had high hopes for the marijuana industry in Canada, expecting sales to follow a similar trend to the sharp increase in liquor sales in the United States after Prohibition ended. However, the industry has not progressed as quickly as anticipated, according to Brendan Kennedy, CEO of Tilray, a major grower based in Nanaimo, British Columbia, which reported a $272 million loss last year. Kennedy is one of the few remaining leaders in Canada's marijuana industry, facing challenges in competing with the illicit market due to strict regulations. Despite losses and stock declines forcing many pioneers out, Kennedy will continue as a director after a planned merger between Tilray and Aphria, creating potentially the world's largest cannabis company. In Ontario, initial plans to sell marijuana through government-owned liquor stores were scrapped by a new Conservative government in 2018, leaving online sales as the only option. The province has modified its plans twice since then, resulting in a inconsistent rollout of privately owned shops. Despite a recent uptick in licensing, Ontario has only given approval for 575 shops, while Alberta, with a smaller population, has 583 shops. Although initial expectations for marijuana profits were too high, Murray believes a successful business will eventually develop, as evidenced by the increasing number of shops in Ontario. The fact that prices have become more competitive with street prices will also benefit legal sales. Murray mentioned that the poor start does not indicate a bad market. He noted that initially there was an excess of money and companies involved, but eventually some companies will become very successful and possibly global leaders. One positive aspect is the growth in legal marijuana sales in British Columbia, which was previously known for its illegal marijuana industry. Sales in legal stores in the region increased by 24% from June to October 2020. In Quebec, the government-owned cannabis store operator, Société Québécoise du Cannabis, initially lost nearly CA$5 million in its first fiscal year but has since become profitable. Despite disappointment among larger growers in Canada, some are looking to foreign markets, particularly for medical marijuana, as their next opportunity. However, many analysts are doubtful. Brent McKnight, a professor at McMaster University, believes Mexico's move towards creating the world's largest legal market could pose a threat to marijuana growing in Canada. Trade agreements may make it difficult for Canada to limit imports from Mexico, which has lower labor costs and a warmer climate, potentially giving it a competitive edge. He stated that this would cause prices to decrease for local growers. There are concerns about the impact of Canada's industry consolidation on smaller players as large publicly traded companies take control. Prior to legalization, non-profit "compassion clubs" were selling cannabis to those using it for medicinal purposes. Dr. Daniel Werb from St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto, a public health researcher and drug policy analyst, mentioned that the current system favoring corporate growers has marginalized individuals from minority communities. Research has shown a lack of diversity in the leadership of legal suppliers. Vendors in Indigenous communities have also been in a state of uncertainty, not typically targeted in police raids but also operating outside of the legal framework. Ontario has started licensing shops in some of these communities, but there are concerns about the lack of diversity and creativity in the cannabis industry. Werb expressed worry about the missed opportunity to approach the industry in a more innovative way.