Preliminary results indicated that the Christian Social Union (CSU) received 37.3 percent of the vote, losing its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. This outcome is expected to cause internal conflicts within the conservative party, which is already a challenging partner for Merkel in Berlin. Bavarian premier Markus Soeder acknowledged the disappointing result at a party gathering, stating that it was not an easy day for the CSU. Despite this setback, he expressed the party's desire to establish a stable government as soon as possible. The CSU will now need to form a coalition, a new experience for a party accustomed to ruling alone, as the pro-immigration Greens came in second and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) entered the state assembly for the first time. The Greens significantly increased their vote share to 17.8 percent, gaining support from more liberal CSU voters and traditional SPD supporters. The political impact of this shift was felt in Bavaria, with potential repercussions in Berlin. Fred Kempe of the Atlantic Council think-tank suggested that the Merkel era may be coming to an end. SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed the federal government's poor performance in Berlin, where the SPD is in a coalition with conservatives, for her party's weak showing in Bavaria. This situation has become a challenge for Merkel. Horst Seehofer, leader of the CSU, has been a constant source of frustration for Merkel since her controversial decision in 2015 to open Germany's borders to over 1 million migrants. He has gradually moved his party to the right in an attempt to combat the rise of the AfD, but this effort has ultimately been unsuccessful. According to political scientist Michael Weigl, Seehofer's personal attacks on Merkel and his harsh rhetoric towards asylum seekers have contributed to the CSU's poor performance. Weigl believes that this strategy has led to a polarized political climate, benefiting the Greens and the AfD, who have clear stances on immigration. When asked if he would step down as CSU leader, Seehofer stated to broadcaster ZDF that he was considering it but needed to analyze the various reasons for the party's poor performance. The preliminary results showed that the AfD garnered 10.7 percent of the vote, while the Free Voters, a protest party likely to be the CSU's coalition partner, secured 11.6 percent. The CSU has ruled out forming an alliance with the AfD. Tensions between Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and the CSU have increased since they were forced into a coalition with the Social Democrats after an inconclusive national election in March. The Bavarian election will be followed by another test for Merkel's conservative alliance, the Union, in two weeks. The CDU is expected to remain the largest party but lose votes in an election in Hesse, which is home to Frankfurt, the financial center. Merkel will seek re-election as party chairwoman at the CDU annual congress in December, a move supported by senior conservatives despite recent ousting of her ally, Volker Kauder, as leader. Before the Bavarian vote, Merkel called for an end to infighting among her CDU and CSU allies. Her fourth government has faced near collapses twice due to disputes over immigration and a scandal involving a former spymaster. Jan Techau from The German Marshall Fund of the United States think-tank described Merkel as "exhausted and weakened." He stated that despite initial doubts, her plan to maintain a neutral stance within the Union seems more reasonable now, given the outcome for the CSU. The success of this strategy moving forward will rely on the results in Hesse.