Contrary to previous reports, including by The New York Times, it is not Elon Musk's SpaceX that will be responsible for causing a crater on the lunar surface. Instead, the likely culprit is a piece of a rocket launched by China's space agency. Bill Gray, the developer of Project Pluto, recently announced that the upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was on a trajectory that could intersect with the moon's path. This rocket had launched the Deep Space Climate Observatory for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in February 2015. Gray had been monitoring this rocket part for years, and in early January, it passed within 6,000 miles of the moon's surface, with the moon's gravity potentially causing it to crash on a subsequent orbit. Observations made by amateur astronomers as the object passed by Earth once again confirmed the expected impact inside Hertzsprung, an ancient crater measuring 315 miles wide. However, a Saturday email from Jon Giorgini, an engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, altered the narrative. Giorgini oversees Horizons, an online database capable of providing locations and orbits for nearly 1.2 million objects within the solar system, including approximately 200 spacecraft. A Horizons user inquired about the likelihood of the object being part of the DSCOVR rocket, prompting Giorgini to investigate further. He discovered that the orbit did not match the path that DSCOVR had taken, so he reached out to Gray. Gray initially believed he was correct in his assessment. However, he reviewed his old emails to recall when the object was first seen in March 2015, shortly after DSCOVR was launched. Typically, newly spotted objects in the sky are assumed to be asteroids, and this object was no exception. It was labeled as WE0913A. However, it was discovered that instead of orbiting the sun, WE0913A was actually orbiting Earth, indicating it likely originated from Earth. Gray suggested it could be part of the rocket that launched DSCOVR, which was confirmed by additional data showing WE0913A passing the moon two days after the DSCOVR launch. Gray now understands his error in thinking DSCOVR was headed towards the moon for a gravity-assisted swing to its final destination, while Giorgini noted that DSCOVR was actually launched on a direct path that did not involve passing the moon. Gray admitted that he should have reviewed the information before making his January announcement, acknowledging that he had made a mistake. Jon Giorgini pointed out the error, prompting Gray to realize the extent of his error. SpaceX did not provide a comment in response to inquiries regarding the rocket stage WE0913A. It is likely that they have not been monitoring it, as the second stage of a Falcon 9 rocket is typically burned up in the atmosphere. However, in this instance, the rocket needed all of its propellant to successfully deliver DSCOVR to its intended destination. However, the second stage, which was not powered or controlled, was in an orbit that was not likely to pose a threat to any satellites, and it is probable that people did not monitor it. Gray expressed a desire for the individuals responsible for launching these boosters into high orbits to publicly disclose what they are putting up there and where they are going, rather than him having to investigate on his own. Gray then questioned if the unidentified object was not the DSCOVR rocket, what could it be? He looked into other launches from the previous months, particularly those heading towards the moon, but found limited information in that category. The leading candidate was a Long March 3C rocket which launched China's Chang'e-5 T1 spacecraft on Oct. 23, 2014. Following a swing around the moon, the spacecraft returned to Earth, releasing a small return capsule that landed in Mongolia. This was a test in preparation for the Chang'e-5 mission in 2020, where moon rocks and dust were successfully collected and brought back to Earth for study. By running a computer simulation of the orbit of WE0913A backwards in time, it was discovered that it would have had a close lunar flyby on Oct 28, just five days after the Chinese launch. Additionally, orbital data from a cubesat attached to the third stage of the Long March rocket closely matched that of WE0913A according to Gray. "It's a case that could likely result in a conviction if taken to a jury," stated Christophe Demeautis, an amateur astronomer in northeast France, regarding the prediction of an object striking the moon. Recent observations have slightly adjusted the timing and location of the impact, but it is still expected to occur at around 7:26 am Eastern time. The crash will unfortunately be on the far side of the moon, out of view of Earth's telescopes and satellites. The whereabouts of the Falcon 9 part, specifically the DSCOVR second stage, are still being investigated. The most likely explanation is that it entered into orbit around the sun rather than the Earth, meaning it may still be out there and currently out of sight. This scenario has happened before with old rocket pieces returning, as seen in 2020 when a mystery object was found to be part of a rocket launched in 1966 for NASA's Surveyor missions to the moon.