Preliminary results indicated that the Christian Social Union (CSU) received 37.3 percent of the vote, falling short of an absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. This is expected to lead to internal conflicts within the conservative party, which has been a challenging partner for Merkel in Berlin. Bavarian premier Markus Soeder acknowledged the disappointing outcome, stating that it was not an easy day for the CSU. Despite this, he expressed humility and a desire to establish a stable government promptly. The need to form a coalition, following the rise of the pro-immigration Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the state assembly, represents a significant setback for the CSU, accustomed to governing independently. The Greens significantly increased their vote share to 17.8 percent, attracting support from more liberal CSU voters and traditional SPD supporters, who only received 9.5 percent. The impact of the Bavarian election will be felt in Berlin, leading to discussions about the end of Merkel's era. SPD leader Andrea Nahles pointed out the poor performance of the federal government in Berlin as a factor in her party's weak showing in Bavaria, hinting at the need for change. Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, has caused difficulties for Merkel since her 2015 decision to open Germany's borders to over 1 million migrants. He has shifted his party to the right in an unsuccessful attempt to combat the rise of the AfD. The Prime Minister of Bavaria, Markus Soeder, reacted to the first exit polls in the Bavarian state election in Munich, Germany on October 14, 2018. According to political scientist Michael Weigl from the University of Passau, Seehofer's personal attacks on Merkel and his tough rhetoric against asylum seekers led to the CSU's poor performance. Weigl believes that this strategy created a polarized political environment, benefiting the Greens and the AfD the most due to their clear positions on immigration. Ultimately, this strategy backfired for the CSU. When asked about resigning as CSU leader, Seehofer stated to ZDF that while he was not ruling it out, there were multiple factors contributing to the party's poor performance that needed to be examined. The AfD received 10.7 percent of the vote according to preliminary results, while the Free Voters, a protest party likely to be the CSU's coalition partner, received 11.6 percent. The CSU has ruled out forming an alliance with the AfD. Tensions between Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and the CSU have escalated since they were forced into a coalition with the Social Democrats following a national election in March. The Bavarian election will be followed by another test for Merkel's conservative alliance, the Union, in two weeks when her CDU is expected to remain the largest party but lose votes in a Hesse election. The CDU will then hold its annual congress in December, where Merkel will seek re-election as party chairwoman, despite recent ousting of her ally Volker Kauder. Before the Bavarian vote, Merkel called for an end to infighting between CDU and CSU allies. Techau from The German Marshall Fund described Merkel as "exhausted and weakened" after her government nearly collapsed twice due to immigration disputes and a spy scandal. He mentioned that despite initial doubts, her decision to maintain a neutral stance for the Union seems more reasonable given the recent outcome for the CSU. The success of this approach moving forward will hinge on the results in Hesse.