The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, after refusing to reduce supply to maintain market share against higher-cost competitors last year, has increased its global supply projections for tight oil, including shale, in its 2015 World Oil Outlook, despite a significant price drop. OPEC predicts that demand for its crude will reach 30.70 million barrels per day in 2020, lower than the expected 30.90 million barrels per day next year. The organization is currently producing about 1 million barrels per day more than the expected demand in 2020. Oil prices have dropped by more than half in the past 18 months, hitting an 11-year low of $36.04 per barrel this week. While the decrease has increased oil consumption in the short term, OPEC believes that the demand boost from low prices will diminish over time. OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri stated in the report's foreword that the recent oil price decline has had the most impact on demand in the short term, with a decrease in significance over the medium term. OPEC is currently facing divisions over the effectiveness of the market-share strategy implemented in 2014, and a recent meeting on Dec 4 failed to establish a production ceiling for the first time in decades. Despite this, the report indicates an improved medium-term outlook for OPEC, as they are a major supplier of one-third of the world's oil. In the 2014 report, it was projected that demand for OPEC crude would decrease to 29.0 million bpd by 2020. OPEC announced that it ceased working on the report in the middle of the year and has since updated its forecast for 2016 non-OPEC supply to show a decline. The figures in the report do not include Indonesia, which rejoined in December. The key data in the report indicating OPEC's medium-term market share being under pressure remains the same as in a previous confidential report obtained by Reuters in November. Despite initially downplaying the impact of shale oil, OPEC's outlook in 2012 acknowledged for the first time that it could have a "significant" effect. The years of high prices, supported by OPEC's previous strategy of reducing supply, played a role in making non-conventional oil like shale economically viable. OPEC has changed its stance on oil production projects, now stating that many projects can be profitable at lower prices. According to their report, certain areas within oil fields can break even at prices lower than those seen in 2015, leading to increased production. The report predicts that global tight oil output will reach 5.19 million bpd by 2020, peak at 5.61 million bpd in 2030, and then decrease to 5.18 million bpd by 2040, with Argentina and Russia becoming major producers alongside North America. Previous estimates were lower, at 4.50 million bpd by 2020 and 4 million bpd by 2040. In a more optimistic scenario, tight oil production could expand to Mexico and China, potentially reaching almost 8 million bpd by 2040. As recently as 2013, OPEC believed that tight oil would only affect North America. The report suggests that OPEC's market share will increase in the future as competition from other suppliers decreases. OPEC predicts that their crude demand will reach 40.70 million bpd by 2040, accounting for 37 percent of global supply, up from 33 percent in 2015. In the short term, OPEC has raised its forecast for world oil demand to 97.40 million bpd by 2020, 500,000 bpd higher than in the previous year's report. However, factors such as slower economic growth, the small portion of crude cost in pump prices, and depreciating domestic currencies against the dollar will limit the response to lower crude prices, according to OPEC. OPEC predicts that by 2040, demand for oil will reach 109.80 million barrels per day, which is 1.3 million barrels per day lower than the previous year due to increased energy efficiency and climate change mitigation efforts. The report suggests that there will only be a slight increase in oil prices, with OPEC's basket of crude oils starting at $55 in 2015 and expected to rise by $5 annually, reaching $80 by 2020.