Turks will vote for a new parliament on Sunday in a crucial election that has been marked by tensions between the ruling AK Party and the secular elite. The AK Party is expected to win, but with a smaller majority that may not allow them to change the constitution. This has led to a boost in Turkish financial markets, as investors support the party's economic policies but are wary of potential conflicts with secularists and the army. The EU is monitoring the election closely, hoping for a new government that can push forward with reforms in Turkey. According to some analysts, investors are not adequately concerned about the risks involved. Wolfango Piccoli from Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, believes that the recent elections in Turkey will not resolve the institutional deadlock, but rather postpone the country's issues. Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was forced to hold early polls after facing opposition from the secular elite, including the army, top judges, and opposition parties, in his attempt to have Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul elected as the next president. The new parliament is now responsible for electing Turkey's next president. Secularists are worried that Erdogan and Gul, who were once affiliated with Islamists, aim to weaken Turkey's separation of state and religion, a claim both men have denied. A two-thirds majority would give the AK Party in Turkey the power to make changes to the secular constitution and elect their preferred presidential candidate, regardless of opposition. To ease concerns from secularists and appeal to urban middle-class voters, Erdogan has replaced some more conservative members of his party with centrist and female candidates. Erdogan has also shown willingness to compromise on the presidency, which has traditionally been held by secularists. Polls suggest the AK Party may receive around 40% of the vote, an increase from 34% in 2002, but may end up with fewer seats due to more parties surpassing the 10% threshold to enter parliament. Polarisation is expected in the upcoming election, with the main opposition parties and independents, including pro-Kurdish candidates, likely to win seats in the parliament. A professor at Ankara's Middle East Technical University, Ayse Ayata, believes a coalition government could help reduce polarization. 42.5 million Turks will be voting out of a total population of 74 million, including four million young people voting for the first time in a national election. Analysts anticipate heated debates in the new parliament between AK Party ex-Islamists and CHP arch-secularists, as well as between Kurdish deputies advocating for more rights and MHP ultra-nationalists who see these demands as a threat to Turkish national security. Mehmet Ali Birand, a seasoned TV commentator, believes the upcoming parliament will test whether Turks and Kurds can come to a consensus on resolving the Kurdish issue. The conflict between Turkish security forces and Kurdish separatist rebels in the southeast region, ongoing since 1984 and resulting in over 30,000 casualties, has been a major focus in the current nationalist political climate. Despite this, discussions about Turkey's EU membership bid have been minimal, indicating a growing disillusionment among the public with the EU project.