Australia's conservative Prime Minister John Howard has seen a decline in support in opinion polls, with many now favoring his younger rival Kevin Rudd. Despite this setback, analysts believe that Howard still has a chance to win a fifth term in office. Howard, who has been in office since 2004, has faced criticism for his handling of parliament in comparison to Rudd, who has garnered support for his promises to withdraw Australian troops from Iraq and sign the Kyoto protocol on climate change. However, analysts suggest that Howard's focus on the economy and national security could help him regain support as the election approaches later in 2007. Monash University political analyst Nick Economou noted that the decisions of the Reserve Bank could greatly impact the outcome of the election. Howard's supporters are optimistic that Australia's record-low unemployment and decreasing inflationary pressures will lead to a halt in interest rate hikes by the central bank and possibly even a rate cut by the end of the year. Economou believes that an early rate cut could negatively impact Labour and prompt Howard to call for early elections as soon as August. However, it is more likely that the government will use the May budget to shift the focus of the debate back to the economy, possibly through significant tax cuts. The latest Reuters Poll Trend shows that Howard's Liberal-National Party coalition is trailing Labour by 13.4 points in February, marking the government's worst result since March 2001. The latest poll results show that Howard has lost his strong lead as the preferred prime minister to Rudd. This is the first time since May 2001 that Howard has not been the preferred prime minister. The polls from February seem to have unsettled Howard, as he made a rare mistake in parliament by denying a connection between greenhouse gases and global warming. He later corrected himself, claiming he misheard the question, but not before his comments were broadcasted on television news, further hurting his government's support on environmental issues. Additionally, Howard sparked controversy by criticizing US presidential candidate Barack Obama's plan to withdraw troops from Iraq in 2008, leading to backlash both at home and in the United States. This move was seen as interference in US politics and risked straining Australia-US relations due to Howard's personal ties and support for President George W. Bush. Laura Tingle, chief political correspondent for the Australian Financial Review, commented that the government has faced challenges in the past fortnight. They have emphasized their strengths in economic management, national security, and leadership, which have historically been effective against opposition leaders, but have not been as successful recently. Rudd has highlighted his youth and family image, while Howard has emphasized his experience. Greg Craven, a government professor, noted that Rudd has pointed out Howard's age as a weakness for the government. He is getting older, and it appears that he is aging faster all of a sudden. He has faced similar poll slumps in the past, but has managed to come back and win elections. Analysts and commentators caution against writing him off too soon. He is stronger on defense and foreign policy, and there is still more to be seen in the economic debate.