Australia's Prime Minister John Howard is facing a decline in support as polls favor his new opponent, Kevin Rudd. Despite Howard's recent setbacks, analysts believe he still has a chance to win a fifth term in office during the upcoming elections in 2007. Rudd, the leader of the Labour opposition party, has gained popularity by promising to withdraw Australian troops from Iraq and support the Kyoto protocol on climate change. However, Howard is expected to regain support as voters focus on his strong track record in the economy and national security. Monash University political analyst Nick Economou believes that the government's fate lies in the hands of the Reserve Bank. With Australia experiencing record-low unemployment and a decrease in inflationary pressures, supporters of Howard are hopeful that the central bank will halt its cycle of interest rate hikes and possibly implement a rate cut before the end of the year. Economou suggested that an early rate cut could negatively impact Labour and prompt Howard to call for elections as soon as August. However, it is more likely that the government will use the May budget to shift the focus of the debate back to the economy, potentially by introducing significant tax cuts. The latest Reuters Poll Trend indicates that Howard's Liberal-National Party coalition is currently trailing Labour by 13.4 points, marking the government's worst result since March 2001. The latest poll trend indicates that Howard is no longer the preferred prime minister over Rudd, marking the first time since May 2001 that Howard has trailed in this aspect. The polls from February seem to have unsettled Howard, as evidenced by a rare mistake he made in parliament by denying a link between greenhouse gases and global warming. Although he later corrected himself, the initial comments were already broadcast on television news bulletins, further damaging his government's already weakening support on environmental issues. In a recent development, Howard sparked controversy by criticizing US presidential candidate Barack Obama's plan to withdraw American troops from Iraq in 2008, leading to backlash both in Australia and the United States. He was accused of interfering in US politics, risking Australia-US relations due to his close ties to President George W Bush. Laura Tingle, the chief political correspondent for the Australian Financial Review, wrote on Friday that the government has had a challenging fortnight. They have relied on their usual strategies of economic management, national security, and leadership to combat opposition leaders, but these tactics have not been as effective this time. Kevin Rudd, a former diplomat who speaks Mandarin, has emphasized his relative youth and family image, while John Howard has emphasized his experience over Rudd's inexperience. Greg Craven, a government professor at Curtin University, pointed out that while Rudd may have seemed middle-aged as a child, he has highlighted Howard's age as a weakness for the government. According to Craven, Howard's greatest weakness is his age, which is obvious but difficult to address. Craven wrote on Friday that he is getting older and seems to be aging more rapidly. Howard has been able to recover from similar polls slumps in the past, winning elections and serving 11 years in power. Analysts and commentators caution against counting him out too soon, as he has bounced back before. Economou believes Howard is in a better position on defense and foreign policy, and there is still the economic debate to come.