The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which previously refused to reduce supply to maintain market share against more expensive competitors, has increased its global supply forecasts for tight oil, including shale, in its 2015 World Oil Outlook despite a significant drop in prices. OPEC predicts that demand for its crude will be 30.70 million barrels per day in 2020, slightly lower than the expected 30.90 million barrels per day next year. This anticipated demand in 2020 is approximately 1 million barrels per day less than OPEC is currently producing. Oil prices have fallen by more than half in the past 18 months, reaching an 11-year low of $36.04 per barrel this week. While this drop has led to increased medium-term oil consumption, OPEC believes that the demand boost from low crude prices will diminish over time. OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri stated in the report that the recent oil price decline has had a significant impact on demand, particularly in the short term, but this impact lessens over time. OPEC is facing internal divisions regarding the market-share strategy implemented in 2014, and at a meeting on Dec 4, they failed to set a production ceiling for the first time in many years. Despite this, the report indicates a more positive medium-term outlook for OPEC as the supplier of a third of the world's oil. In the 2014 edition of the report, it was projected that demand for OPEC crude would decrease to 29.0 million bpd by 2020. OPEC has stopped working on the report in the middle of the year and has updated its forecast for 2016 non-OPEC supply to a decline. The report does not include Indonesia, which rejoined in December. The main figures in the report that show OPEC's medium-term market share is under pressure remain the same as a confidential report obtained by Reuters in November. OPEC initially underestimated the impact of shale oil but acknowledged in its 2012 annual outlook that it could have a significant effect. Years of high prices, supported by OPEC's previous policy of cutting supply, have made non-conventional oil like shale economically viable. OPEC's latest report indicates a shift in perspective, stating that many projects can be profitable at lower oil prices. The report predicts that global tight oil output will increase to 5.19 million bpd by 2020, peak at 5.61 million bpd in 2030, and then decrease to 5.18 million bpd in 2040. Argentina and Russia are expected to become major producers alongside North America. In a more optimistic scenario, tight oil production could expand to Mexico and China, potentially reaching almost 8 million bpd by 2040. In 2013, OPEC believed that tight oil would only affect North America. The report suggests that OPEC's market share will increase over time as other sources of supply decline. OPEC predicts that by 2040, their crude demand will be 40.70 million bpd, making up 37 percent of global supply, up from 33 percent in 2015. OPEC has raised its forecast for world oil demand in the medium term, estimating it to reach 97.40 million bpd by 2020, 500,000 bpd more than in the previous year's report. However, factors such as slower economic growth, the small portion of crude costs in pump prices, and the depreciation of some currencies against the dollar will limit the response to lower crude prices, according to OPEC. OPEC predicts that by 2040, demand will reach 109.80 million bpd, which is 1.3 million bpd lower than the previous year due to energy efficiency and climate-change mitigation efforts. The report also suggests a gradual increase in oil prices, with OPEC's basket of crude oils starting at $55 in 2015 and rising by $5 annually to reach $80 by 2020.