In the recent election results, Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi surpassed Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, potentially leading to prolonged political negotiations and a dangerous power vacuum in Iraq. These new results, which overturned the previous lead held by Maliki, were announced amidst a backdrop of violence, with twin bomb attacks killing eight people in Mussayab. These attacks highlight Iraq's vulnerability as it faces the prospect of significant political changes and the impending withdrawal of US troops. The recent violence, including a car bomb in Anbar province, raises concerns about Iraq's fragile security during what is expected to be a lengthy and contentious process of government formation. Allawi's slight advantage in the national vote count over Maliki's predominantly Shi'ite State of Law bloc underscores Iraq's deep divisions following years of sectarian conflict. Allawi, a secular Shi'ite leader whose multi-sectarian, secularist Iraqiya list is currently leading in five provinces, has garnered support from Sunni minorities looking to regain their lost influence since Saddam Hussein's regime ended in 2003. With approximately 80 percent of an estimated 12 million votes tallied, there is only a slim margin of about 9,000 votes between Maliki's coalition and Allawi's. It may take weeks to determine the final results. One of the two blocs is expected to form an alliance with either the largely Shi'ite Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which includes some of Maliki's former allies and is currently in third place, or with the Kurdish parties that dominate the northern Kurdish region of Iraq. Despite Maliki's strong support for his efforts to restore stability in Iraq, Allawi's allies, including the sophisticated physician and critic of the dominant Shi'ite religious parties since 2003, are feeling optimistic. Thaer al-Naqeeb, a close associate of Allawi, expressed confidence that the final election results would show Allawi in the lead over Maliki, despite Maliki currently leading in Baghdad, which has the most seats in Iraq's parliament. Joost Hiltermann, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, warned that the post-election period, already marred by fraud allegations, may see the loser refusing to accept defeat and trying to surpass the winner after the vote count is completed. How Iraq plans to establish a government that is acceptable to rival factions such as Maliki and Allawi, as well as other competing groups, will be crucial in ensuring security as the deadline for US withdrawal approaches at the end of 2011. A coalition of the two main Kurdish parties currently holds the lead in three Kurdish provinces in northern Iraq, but is closely following Allawi's bloc in Kirkuk, a province known for its oil production and a contested area between Arabs and Kurds. Allawi is currently ahead of the Kurdish bloc in Kirkuk by a small margin. Toby Dodge, an expert on Iraq at the University of London, suggested that Iran's influence on Iraq, which has a Shi'ite majority, could play a significant role in forming a new government alliance involving Maliki, the INA, and the Kurds. He stated that this could somewhat resemble the coalition that governed Iraq poorly from 2006 to 2010. The Iranian government welcomed the elections, hoping for a leader representing Shi'ite interests in Iraq. The Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, praised the Iraqi elections, stating that all international supervision had validated their legitimacy. He called it a success and congratulated the Iraqis.