According to a senior UBS analyst, many Asian companies are not fully aware of the potential financial impacts of carbon pricing in the region, nor are they prepared for the possibility of carbon import duties on their products. Sectors such as airlines, cement and steel firms, computer manufacturers, and shipping lines are likely to be affected depending on their profit margins, ability to pass on costs, and exposure to the US and Europe. The analyst also mentioned that a major climate conference in Denmark in December could lead to a wider adoption of carbon pricing in Asia, and that within three years, a carbon tax or emissions trading could impact companies across all Asian markets. The analyst criticized investors in Asia for not focusing on this issue, stating that they tend to be short-term oriented and underestimate the importance of climate change policies in countries like India and China. Smiles, the author of a prominent UBS report titled "How could carbon pricing impact Asian company earnings?", recently examined three different scenarios. These scenarios included domestic carbon pricing in Asian countries, implementing "equalising" carbon import duties between richer and poorer nations, and imposing harsher climate change carbon import duties. He suggested that the second option was the most likely to occur in the medium term, citing signals from the United States and the European Union regarding the potential imposition of duties on goods from countries without greenhouse gas caps. The Waxman-Markey climate bill, which has yet to be voted on in Congress, includes a proposal for an international reserve allowance programme. This scenario would require American companies to purchase energy-intensive products from countries that do not share the same emissions goals as the United States. These US companies would need to purchase allowances to compensate for the carbon emissions associated with foreign goods like cement or steel. According to Smiles, under this second scenario, marine transport companies, airlines, steel manufacturers, and computer companies would be impacted, as exporters would be responsible for paying for the carbon emissions based on their CO2 output, while domestic companies would not. With the implementation of carbon pricing in the US, more than half of global private consumption nations would also have carbon pricing in place. The report suggests that Asian airlines, including Taiwan's Eva Airways, Thailand's Siam City Cement, and South Korean Hyundai Merchant Marine, could experience significant decreases in earnings per share if carbon-related import duties are implemented. The study focuses on industries such as airlines, power utilities, marine transport, and cement makers, which would be most affected by domestic carbon taxes or trading schemes aimed at reducing CO2 emissions by 20 percent. China Airlines is expected to experience a significant decrease in its 2010 EPS due to its high exposure to the United States and EU, 30 percent fuel cost exposure, and slightly negative earnings margin. On the other hand, Singapore Airlines' EPS is projected to only drop by 8.6 percent because of its 9.5 percent net profit margin and slightly lower fuel cost exposure. The report suggests that the third scenario, where exporters of manufactured goods pay for the CO2 emissions of their home countries, is currently less likely to occur. This scenario was originally intended to push China, India, and other developing nations to participate in global efforts to combat climate change. Smiles explained that the report aims to estimate the potential cost of a domestic carbon pricing regime for these countries. It was believed at that time that the US and Europe placed the full financial burden of carbon costs on all manufactured exports from various countries through a uniform tax. In 2007, China's estimated carbon cost was $55 billion, while India's was $9 billion.