Hogir Fathi, a 24-year-old fighter in the Kurdish peshmerga forces, was eagerly anticipating a visit to his village in autonomous Kurdistan when he was killed by a bomb on the frontline against Islamist militants. His father, Mehdi, also a peshmerga fighter, expressed pride in his son's martyrdom and emphasized the importance of sacrifice for an independent Kurdistan. The Kurds, who have long sought their own state, have recently seen an opportunity for independence as conflict among Iraq's Arab population raises the possibility of partition. Despite calls for secession and support for independence in a referendum, economic and external pressures may delay a final break from Iraq. Kurdistan Vice President Kosrat Rasul Ali, a seasoned peshmerga commander, stated that while all Kurdish people support independence, the leadership must carefully consider whether the timing is appropriate. He emphasized the importance of assessing the political climate to avoid any misadventures. The threat of secession has historically benefited the Kurds in negotiations with Shi'ites and Sunnis in post-Saddam Iraq.

The five million Iraqi Kurds, predominantly Sunni Muslims, have significant autonomy, with their own armed forces and oil exports, much to the displeasure of Baghdad. Turkey's previous hostility towards Kurdish independence may no longer pose a major obstacle, as Ankara has collaborated with Iraqi Kurds to secure its borders and purchase oil. Iran, on the other hand, opposes Kurdish secession, viewing it as an attempt to unfairly claim Iraq's resources.

Tensions within Kurdish politics stem from differing allegiances to Turkey and Iran, with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) aligning more closely with Turkey and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) having stronger ties to Iran. These factions control separate territories and peshmerga units within Iraqi Kurdistan. A senior member of the PUK, which includes Iraq's President Jalal Talabani and Kurdistan Vice President Rasul, warned that failure to balance relations between Iran and Turkey could have negative consequences. An Iranian official accused the KDP of being part of a conspiracy with Turkey and Sunni forces to support the Islamic State. The US is pressuring Kurds not to break away from Iraq and to join a coalition with Shi'ites and Sunnis. Many Kurds are unhappy with this policy but are reluctant to lose powerful allies. Kurdish leaders are using their influence to negotiate for concessions, particularly on oil exports. Baghdad reduced the Kurds' budget share in response to independent oil sales, causing an economic crisis. It may take years for the Kurds to make as much money through oil exports as they would from a share of Baghdad's revenues. While some believe in the cause of sovereignty, others argue that delaying independence may be more economically beneficial. A practical Kurdish leadership might wait to observe how Iraq's various groups and their international allies handle the Islamist offensive before making any decisions. According to a Western diplomat familiar with Iraqi politics, the Kurds are currently in a strong position and pursuing independence could have more drawbacks than benefits.