In the latest results from Iraq's March 7 election, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has surpassed current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. These results could lead to prolonged political negotiations and a potential power vacuum. The reversal of Maliki's previous lead comes amid a backdrop of violence, with twin bomb attacks in Mussayab killing eight people. These attacks highlight Iraq's vulnerability as it faces possible political change and the impending withdrawal of US troops. The recent violence, along with previous attacks, raises concerns about Iraq's fragile security during what is expected to be a lengthy and contentious government formation process. Allawi's slim lead over Maliki's mainly Shi'ite State of Law bloc underscores the country's deep divisions following years of sectarian conflict. Allawi, a secular Shi'ite leader whose Iraqiya list is currently leading in five provinces, has garnered support from Sunni minorities looking to regain their lost influence after Saddam Hussein's regime ended in 2003. With approximately 80 percent of the estimated 12 million votes tallied, there is a narrow margin of about 9,000 votes between Maliki's and Allawi's coalitions. It may take weeks to determine the final results. One of the two blocs is expected to form an alliance with either the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a predominantly Shi'ite bloc, or with the Kurdish parties in the north. Despite Maliki's popularity for stabilizing Iraq, Allawi's allies are feeling confident in their chances, as he is known for his criticism of the Shi'ite religious parties that have dominated Iraq in recent years. Thaer al-Naqeeb, a close associate of Allawi, expressed confidence that Allawi would ultimately be shown to be ahead of Maliki in the final election results, despite Maliki currently leading in Baghdad. Joost Hiltermann from the International Crisis Group warned that the post-election period, which has already been marred by claims of fraud, may see the loser refusing to accept defeat gracefully and trying to overturn the outcome. How Iraq can create a government that is acceptable to rival factions like Maliki and Allawi, as well as other factions in the country, is crucial for maintaining security as the US aims to withdraw by the end of 2011. A Kurdish alliance is leading in three provinces in northern Iraq and is close behind Allawi's bloc in Kirkuk. Allawi currently has a slight lead over the Kurdish bloc in Kirkuk. Toby Dodge, an expert on Iraq at the University of London, believes that Iran's influence could play a key role in forming a government alliance between Maliki, the INA, and the Kurds. He stated that this could somewhat resemble the coalition that poorly governed Iraq from 2006 to 2010. The Iranian government, hoping for a Shi'ite representative to lead Iraq, commended the elections. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast expressed approval of the Iraqi elections, stating that international supervision has verified their validity.