The traditional belief for many years was that Israel relied on the United States for its survival. However, experts now suggest that Israel has been able to establish a level of independence from the US, despite still benefiting from their assistance. This shift towards autonomy has been noted by security experts and political analysts, indicating a change in Israel's relationship with Washington. Israel no longer relies on US security guarantees for protection from neighboring states, as it has mostly made peace with them. It also does not see the need for American mediation in the Palestinian conflict, which Israelis generally support maintaining as it is. Previously dependent on US arms transfers, Israel now manufactures many of its essential weapons domestically. Diplomatically, Israel has become more self-sufficient by cultivating allies outside of Washington. Israelis are also less concerned with US approval culturally and exert less pressure on their leaders to maintain good relations with Washington. US aid to Israel has remained high, but Israel's strong economic growth over the years has made the country less dependent on it. In 1981, US aid made up almost 10% of Israel's economy, but in 2020, it was only about 1%. The US has also shown a decreasing role in the conflict, as seen in their call for a cease-fire only after an Egyptian-brokered agreement was almost finalized. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be visiting the region, but he has stated that he does not plan to restart formal Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. The shift comes at a time when some Democrats and liberal activists are questioning the traditional US support for Israel due to concerns about its treatment of Palestinians. Despite some American support for Israel, there is a growing backing for Palestinians among Democratic voters. The US still has influence over Israel through arms and diplomatic support, but this leverage may be diminishing as Israel continues to act independently, regardless of bipartisan agreements. Former President Trump's strong support for Israel showed that the relationship is still beneficial for Israel, but US influence may be waning. Steps towards achieving independence
When Americans reflect on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they often think back to the Second Intifada, a period marked by Israeli tanks entering Palestinian towns and bombs exploding in Israeli cafes and buses. However, this was 15 years ago. Israel has since altered the dynamics of the conflict in ways that are generally acceptable to Israeli voters and leaders. Incidents of violence against Israelis in the West Bank are now less frequent and less severe, and even rarer within Israel itself. While there have been sporadic outbreaks of fighting between Israel and groups in Gaza, Israeli forces have managed to shift most of the burden onto Gazans. The number of deaths in the conflict used to be heavily skewed in favor of Palestinians, but now the ratio is closer to 20-to-1. Many Israelis have become disillusioned with the peace process and see periodic fighting as the best option. The occupation is a constant burden for Palestinians but is often ignored by Jewish Israelis. This approach has become more accepted by Israelis, who are willing to tolerate the cost. Israel is able to maintain this status quo without much assistance from outside sources. In previous years, Israel heavily relied on US-made military equipment, which needed approval from Congress and the White House. Now, they have shifted to using domestically-produced missile defense technology, showcasing their determination for self-sufficiency. Despite initial skepticism, Israel now has an effective missile defense system at a reasonable cost, thanks to past US funding. The decision to pursue military autonomy was made in the 1990s, influenced by strained relations with the George HW Bush administration and a perceived lack of American support during the Iraqi missile attacks on Israel. This belief strengthened over time with successive presidents, as their efforts to make peace with the Palestinians clashed with Israeli desires to maintain control of the West Bank and blockade Gaza. Israel has sought to develop independent capabilities to lessen dependence on US influence and pressure, including independent intelligence gathering. Israel has also shifted away from relying heavily on US protection against international isolation, seeking acceptance from Western democracies and enjoying a warmer international climate. Powers that used to oppose Israel with an "anti-imperialist" stance have shifted their focus. Although opinions about Israel vary internationally and are particularly negative in Muslim-majority countries, Israel has managed to establish relationships in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Even neighboring Arab states like Jordan and Egypt, former enemies, are now pursuing peace, and tensions with other Arab nations have decreased. In the past year, agreements such as the Abraham Accords, facilitated by Trump, have led to Israel normalizing relations with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, as well as establishing diplomatic ties with Morocco and Sudan. Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli political analyst and pollster, mentioned that there used to be discussions about an impending diplomatic crisis, but it never happened. She conducts an annual poll where Israelis rank national challenges, with security and the economy consistently being the top priorities. Foreign relations have now fallen to the bottom of the list. European diplomats issue warnings without consequences, Democrats discuss the future of the alliance, but Israelis see their international standing as strong. Israel has also aimed to distance itself from American diplomacy. In the mid-2010s, Benjamin Netanyahu opposed Obama's reelection due to his Middle East policies, straining relations. Netanyahu has since built relationships with illiberal democracies like Brazil, Hungary, and India, who admire Israel's treatment of Palestinians. This strategy, dubbed the "other friends policy" by Scheindlin, has led Israelis to believe US acceptance is no longer essential for their survival. The increasing nationalism has led to a greater willingness to ignore international criticism, making Washington's support for Israel's democratic credentials less significant. It has been traditionally believed in Israel that one of the main responsibilities of any prime minister is to maintain bipartisan support from Washington. However, when Netanyahu sided with Republicans in the mid-2010s, including criticizing Obama in Congress, he was expected to face backlash at home. Despite this, Obama and congressional Democrats did not adjust their support. Americans elected Trump, who showed more support for Netanyahu than any previous president, which led to a feeling of confidence among Israelis. They learned that they can manage any tensions in the relationship. In recent focus groups conducted after Biden's election, it was found that Israelis no longer worry about backlash from American politicians. They are not as concerned and see it as just part of dealing with America. Many Israelis have become disinterested in the peace process, viewing it as hopeless and not a top priority due to the current tolerable status quo. This shift in Israeli public opinion has altered the relationship with the US, as Israeli leaders no longer feel the need to show they are seeking peace sincerely. Instead, they are facing more pressure to go against American wishes, such as expanding settlements in the West Bank or even annexing it. Israel is not the first small state to seek independence from a powerful patron, but what makes this case unique is that it was the Americans who helped build up Israel's military and diplomatic independence, reducing their own influence. After almost 50 years of not using this leverage to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it may soon be lost forever. Mizrahi-Arnaud believes that Israel now feels emboldened to act without consequences, questioning the last time the United States pressured Israel.