Preliminary results indicated that the Christian Social Union (CSU) garnered 37.3 percent of the vote, marking only the second time since 1962 that the party lost its absolute majority. This outcome is expected to spark internal conflicts within the conservative party, which has already proven to be a challenging partner for Merkel in Berlin. Bavarian premier Markus Soeder acknowledged the disappointing result, stating that it was not an easy day for the CSU. Despite this setback, Soeder expressed a desire to establish a stable government promptly. The election results placed the pro-immigration Greens in second place and allowed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to secure seats in the state assembly for the first time. As a result, the CSU will need to form a coalition, a significant blow for a party accustomed to governing independently. The Greens, who saw their share of the vote more than double to 17.8 percent, gained support from liberal CSU voters and traditional Social Democrats (SPD) supporters, who only received 9.5 percent. Fred Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington, described the election results in Bavaria as a political earthquake with potential repercussions in Berlin. SPD leader Andrea Nahles criticized the federal government's poor performance, hinting at the need for change. This outcome is seen as a challenge to Merkel's leadership. Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, has been a source of conflict for Merkel since her decision in 2015 to allow over 1 million migrants into Germany. He has shifted his party further to the right in an unsuccessful attempt to combat the rise of the AfD. According to political scientist Michael Weigl, Seehofer's personal attacks on Merkel and his harsh rhetoric towards asylum seekers contributed to the poor performance of the CSU in the Bavarian state election. Weigl believes that this strategy created a divisive political environment in which the Greens and the AfD thrived due to their clear positions on immigration. Ultimately, this approach backfired for the CSU. When asked if he would step down as CSU leader, Seehofer stated to broadcaster ZDF that he was considering it, but there were multiple factors contributing to the party's poor performance that needed to be examined. The AfD received 10.7 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results. The Free Voters, a protest party that could potentially form a coalition with the CSU, won 11.6 percent. The CSU has ruled out forming an alliance with the AfD. Tensions between Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and the CSU have increased since the two parties were forced into a coalition with the Social Democrats after the inconclusive national election in March. The Bavarian election will be followed by another test for Merkel's conservative alliance, the Union, in two weeks when the CDU is expected to experience a decrease in votes in the Hesse election. Merkel will seek re-election as party chairwoman at the CDU's annual congress in December, despite facing challenges from within her party. The German Marshall Fund of the United States think-tank described Merkel as "exhausted and weakened" due to recent challenges faced by her government. He stated that despite previous doubts, her plan to maintain a neutral stance within the Union seems more sensible in light of the recent outcome for the CSU. The future success of this strategy will rely on the results in Hesse.