President Emmanuel Macron, aged 44, is the favored candidate who has chosen to remain neutral, delaying his announcement to run for a close deadline in March. This is a strategic move to keep his opponents uncertain. Macron, comfortable in his moderate position, has observed the right and extreme-right parties fight amongst themselves. Immigration and security have become the main focus, overshadowing other issues like climate change and the increasing debt due to the coronavirus crisis. Éric Zemmour, a far-right candidate, believes that naming a child 'Mohammed' is a form of colonization in France. He presents himself as the only barrier between French civilization and the influence of Islam and American political correctness. Similar to former President Donald Trump, Zemmour relies on continuous provocation to remain in the spotlight, as evidenced by his recent conversation with Trump. However, Macron currently holds a significant lead in polls, with around 25% of the vote projected for the first round of the election on April 10. Zemmour and two other right-wing candidates are polling in the 12%-18% range. On the other hand, left-wing parties are fragmented and lagging behind, appearing to be mere onlookers for the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. Despite France traditionally leaning right, this election season has seen a noticeable shift in dynamics. Pascal Bruckner, an author and political philosopher, stated that the left lost support from the popular classes who moved to the far right due to its lack of response on immigration and Islam. Macron, seen as a chameleon, is now facing off against the right. Macron is benefiting from the perception that he has successfully managed the coronavirus pandemic and the economy, making him appear stronger than in the past. The economy grew by 7% in the last quarter and unemployment is low at 7.4%. It is likely that COVID-19 measures, including mask requirements in public places, will be lifted before the election, which would be a powerful symbolic gesture. It is a challenge to attack Macron because he represents both the remaining elements of social democracy in France and right-wing policies, such as his strong stance against "Islamist separatism." Macron is described as adaptable by some, while others criticize him for constantly changing his beliefs. The upcoming election will see a battle for the second spot in the runoff against Macron, with right-wing candidates vying for the opportunity. Marine Le Pen has become a vocal critic of Zemmour, accusing him of attracting supporters with extreme views and trying to destroy her party. Zemmour, known for his extreme belief that Islam is not compatible with France, has criticized the president for attempting to differentiate between extremist Islamism and the religion itself. He has also condemned her for not accepting the concept of the "great replacement" - a racist conspiracy theory suggesting that white Christian populations are deliberately being replaced by nonwhite immigrants, leading to what Zemmour refers to as the "Creolization" of societies. The president remains confident in his chances against both Le Pen and Zemmour, despite the latter's ability to break through conservative French voter taboos. While France is facing challenges such as high energy costs and pandemic fatigue, a disruptive choice like the election of Trump in the US or Brexit in Britain would be unexpected. Retiree Paulette Brémond, who voted for Macron in 2017, is now torn between supporting the president or Zemmour. She stated that the issue of immigration is serious and she is waiting to hear what Mr. Macron's stance on it will be. She believes he may not take as extreme of a position as Zemmour, but if he appears effective, she may vote for him again. She feels like the campaign has not truly begun until Macron officially announces his candidacy, a sentiment shared by many in the country. Macron, however, seems unconcerned by the early political maneuvering, as he has emphasized his focus on important state matters such as diplomacy with Putin to prevent war in Ukraine and ending the French anti-terrorist campaign in Mali. If Mali has been a clear failure, although it is unlikely to influence many voters, the Ukraine crisis has allowed Macron to appear as Europe's unofficial leader in seeking positive engagement with Russia, as long as it does not result in war. Zemmour and Le Pen, who together represent around 30% of the vote, openly admire Putin. A member of Macron's potential reelection team expressed concerns about facing the centre-right Republican candidate, Valérie Pécresse, in a runoff rather than Le Pen or Zemmour. Pécresse, a graduate of the same prestigious school as Macron and a competent two-term president of France's most populous region, may attract center-left and left-wing voters who see Macron as a betrayer in the second round. However, Pécresse's chances have been somewhat diminished by a poor performance in her first major campaign speech in Paris this month, although not necessarily beyond repair. One recent poll showed that Pécresse's support has decreased from 19% in December to 12%. She has shifted towards the right due to the prevailing climate in France, a country heavily impacted by Islamist terrorism. Pécresse referenced "the great replacement" in her campaign speech, leading to criticism. She stated in a television interview that she will not accept a Macron-Zemmour showdown, as voting for Le Pen or Zemmour ultimately benefits Macron. Macron's initial term focused on reforming the French state-centric model by simplifying labor laws, eliminating the wealth tax, and attracting foreign investment to stimulate the economy. Then there was a rebellion in the form of the Yellow Vest movement against increasing inequality and wealthy financiers who travel the world - Macron was one of them - who were perceived as being unaware of the widespread social suffering. Just as that unrest settled down, the coronavirus pandemic hit, causing the president to suddenly shift from a supporter of free-market reforms to advocating for state intervention at any cost. Macron confidently declared in 2020, "We have nationalized salaries," without hesitation. The consequences of these actions will eventually have to be faced, and they will likely be burdensome. However, for now, Macron, who is known for constantly changing his stance and being referred to as the "at the same time" president, appears to be enjoying the success of controlling the pandemic. "He was fortunate," a member of his campaign team remarked. "The presence of COVID prevented him from having to implement more unpopular reforms." Despite the possibility of unforeseen events such as a European war, a new virus variant, a major terrorist attack, or a surge in social unrest, Macron's strategy of staying detached from the chaos appears to be effective at the moment. "Unless a disaster occurs, I believe Mr. Macron will be reelected," Bruckner stated. However, the true campaign will only commence once the current leader finally enters the tumultuous arena. ©2022 The New York Times Company.