Australia's conservative Prime Minister John Howard is facing a decline in support as polls favor his new rival Kevin Rudd. Despite this setback, analysts believe Howard still has a chance to win a fifth term in office. Howard, 67, has experienced his worst drop in polls in six years, struggling against Rudd, 49, who became the leader of the Labour opposition party in December. Rudd's promises to withdraw Australian troops from Iraq and sign the Kyoto protocol on climate change have boosted his party's chances of victory. However, analysts believe Howard can regain support by focusing on his strengths in the economy and national security. Monash University political analyst Nick Economou stated that the fate of the government lies in the hands of the Reserve Bank. With unemployment at a record low and inflationary pressures easing in Australia, supporters of Howard are optimistic that the central bank will cease its cycle of interest rate hikes and possibly consider a rate cut by the end of the year. Economou suggested that an early rate cut could harm Labour and lead Howard to call for early elections as soon as August. However, it is more likely that the government will use the May budget to shift the focus back to the economy. Economou mentioned that the government may introduce significant tax cuts in an attempt to redirect the discussion towards the economy, which is one of Howard's strong suits. The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which analyzes three main published opinion polls in Australia, revealed that Howard's Liberal-National Party coalition is trailing Labour by 13.4 points as of February - the worst result for the government since March 2001. The latest poll trend shows that Howard has lost his significant lead as the preferred prime minister to Rudd, marking the first time since May 2001 that Howard has not been the preferred prime minister. The February polls seemed to have unsettled Howard, as he made a rare mistake in parliament by denying a connection between greenhouse gases and global warming. Although he later corrected himself, the initial comments were already broadcast on television news, further weakening his government's support on environmental issues. Howard also sparked controversy by criticizing US presidential candidate Barack Obama's plan to withdraw troops from Iraq in 2008, facing backlash both at home and internationally for interfering in US politics and potentially jeopardizing Australia-US relations due to his close ties with President George W. Bush. Laura Tingle, the chief political correspondent for the Australian Financial Review, wrote on Friday that the government has had a rough fortnight. They have relied on their usual strategies of economic management, national security, and leadership to combat opposition leaders, but these tactics have not been very effective. Rudd, a former diplomat who speaks Mandarin, has emphasized his youth and family image, while Howard has emphasized his experience compared to Rudd's lack of it. Professor Greg Craven from Curtin University pointed out that Rudd, despite seeming middle-aged as a child, has criticized Howard's age as a weakness for the government. Howard's biggest weakness, according to Craven, is his age, which is clear but uncomfortable to mention. He is getting older, and it appears that he is aging rapidly. Howard has successfully recovered from similar poll slumps in the past and has been in power for 11 years. Analysts and commentators believe it is premature to count him out. Despite his current situation, he is strong on defense and foreign policy, and there is still the economic debate to come.