 An urn contains an unknown number of black and white tickets, where the proportion p of black tickets is also unknown. The data consists simply in a report of the relative frequency \(r/k\) of black tickets in a large number k of draws with replacement from the urn. In the light of the data we propose the hypothesis that \(p = (r/k)+\epsilon\) for some suitable \(\epsilon\) depending on k. This hypothesis is, according to standard statistical lore, very well supported by the data from which it is clearly constructed. (1990: 231) 