 The second point is a far-reaching moral: that the fates of claims about confirmation often turn crucially on what assumptions we make about the values of \(p\). Nicod’s criterion fails in situations like Good’s, where \(p\) assigns a lower value to \(p(R \wedge B\mid H)\) than to \(p(R \wedge B\mid \neg H)\). But in another situation, where things are reversed, Nicod’s Criterion does apply. Likewise, a diagnosis of the raven paradox like the standard one only applies given certain assumptions about \(p\), like assumptions (i) and (ii) of the Raven Theorem. The probability axioms alone generally aren’t enough to tell us when Nicod’s Criterion applies, or when confirmation is small or large, positive or negative.