 Uncertain conditional judgements create difficulties for all propositional theories. As we have seen, it is easy to construct probabilistic counterexamples to Hook’s theory; and it is easy to do so for the variant of Stalnaker’s theory according to which “If \(A, B\)” is true iff \(B\) is true at all nearest \(A\)-worlds (as Lewis (1973) holds for counterfactuals). (It is very close to certain that if you toss the coin ten times, you will get at least one head; but it is certainly false that the consequent is true at all nearest antecedent-worlds.) It is rather harder for Stalnaker’s theory, because nearness is so volatile, and also because it is not fully specified. But here is a putative counterexample: the short straws. (An example of this type I learned from James Studd.)