 Section 3.4  already presented one analysis of the paradox. On Pearl’s causal analysis, the appearance of a paradox results from a conflation between causal and probabilistic reasoning. If one interprets the claim that taking the drug raises the probability of recovery as the causal statement that intervening to give the drug will make patients more likely to recover, and plausibly assumes that taking the drug has no influence on gender, then the drug cannot lower the probability of recovery both among males and among females. But, of course, if one is considering ordinary conditional probabilities without any do-operators, such reversals can occur. Accordingly, the appearance of paradox results from conflating ordinary conditional probabilities with conditional probabilities representing the results of interventions.