  The most common realist response to this argument is to restrict realism to theories with some further properties (usually, maturity, and novel predictive success) so as to cut down the inductive base employed in (i) (see Psillos 1996). Moreover Peter Lewis (2001), Marc Lange (2002) and Magnus and Callender (2004) regard the pessimistic meta-induction as a fallacy of probabilistic reasoning. However, there are arguments from theory change that are not probabilistic. Note first that there are several cases of mature theories which enjoyed novel predictive success, notably the ether theory of light and the caloric theory of heat. If their central theoretical terms do not refer, the realist's claim that approximate truth explains empirical success will no longer be enough to establish realism, because we will need some other explanation for the success of the caloric and ether theories. If this will do for these theories then it ought to do for others where we happened to have retained the central theoretical terms, and then we do not need the realist's preferred explanation that such theories are true and successfully refer to unobservable entities.