 So far, there is no mention of chances. Now, we allow probabilistic theories to enter the competition. We are not yet in a position to speak of such theories as being true. Instead, let us introduce another theoretical virtue: fit. The more probable the actual history of the universe is by the lights of the theory, the better it fits that history. Now the theories compete according to how well they combine simplicity, strength, and fit. The theorems of the winning theory are the laws of nature. Some of these laws may be probabilistic. The chances are the probabilities that are determined by these probabilistic laws.