 Hook and the suppositional theorist (call her Supp) come spectacularly apart when \(\mathbf{p}({\sim}A)\) is high and \(\mathbf{p}(A \amp B)\) is much smaller than \(\mathbf{p}(A \amp{\sim}B)\). Let \(\mathbf{p}({\sim}A) = 90\)%, \(\mathbf{p}(A \amp B) = 1\)%, \(\mathbf{p}(A \amp{\sim}B) = 9\)%. \(\mathbf{p}_A (B) = 10\)%. \(\mathbf{p}(A \supset B) = 91\)%. For instance, I am 90% certain that Sue won’t be offered the job \(({\sim}O)\), and think it only 10% likely that she will decline the offer \((D)\) if it is made, that is \(\mathbf{p}_O (D) = 10\)%. \(\mathbf{p}(O \supset D) = \mathbf{p}({\sim}O \text{ or } (O \amp D)) = 91\)%.