 If we represent epistemic self-doubt as a violation of Synchronic Reflection (Self-Respect), then it is not rational for a coherent person who knows what her beliefs are. This is a general rule giving the same verdict in all cases, that the orders must match, and it gives the form of that matching in terms of a conditional probability. The second-order is in the driving seat since the condition in SR’s conditional probability that determines a value for the first-order proposition q is itself a statement of probability, but SR can’t lead to change of first-order belief unless one does not know what one’s belief in q is. As in the approach via categorical statements above, this simple approach via conditional probability does not represent the cycle of self-doubt and resolution as available to a rational subject.