 Once again, our formalization vindicates the truism. Suppose as before that \(H\) predicts \(E\) and thus \(p(E\mid H) = 1\), or nearly so. A novel prediction is one where \(p(E)\) is low, or at least not very high. It’s a prediction one wouldn’t expect. Our previous analysis exposed that, in such circumstances, we multiply \(p(H)\) by a large ratio in Bayes’ theorem. Thus \(p(H\mid E)\) comes out significantly larger than \(p(H)\), making \(c(H,E)\) large. So novel predictions turn out especially confirmatory.