 Unfortunately, experts—like all humans—are notoriously bad decision makers. Cognitive psychologists have established a large number of cognitive biases to which human experts are subject: they suffer from overconfidence (e.g., Dawes and Mulford 1996) and hindsight bias (e.g., Fischhoff 1975; Hugh and Dekker 2009); are regularly outperformed by simple mechanical algorithms (e.g., Grove and Meehl 1996); commit the conjunction fallacy (Tversky and Kahneman 1983; Rao 2009), and many others.