 Figure 1(b)  plots the median values for the probability weighting function \(w(\cdot)\) that takes the exogenous probability p associated with prospects, as reported in Tversky &amp; Kahneman 1992. Roughly, below probability values of one-third people overestimate the probability of an outcome (consequence), and above probability one-third people tend to underestimate the probability of an outcome occurring. Traditionally, overweighting is thought to concern the systematic miscalibration of people’s subjective estimates of outcomes against a known exogenous probability, p, serving as the reference standard. In support of this view, miscalibration appears to disappear when people learn a distribution through sampling instead of learning identical statistics by description (Hertwig, Barron, Weber, &amp; Erev 2004). Miscalibration in this context ought to be distinguished from overestimating or underestimating subjective probabilities when the relevant statistics are not supplied as part of the decision task. For example, televised images of the aftermath of airplane crashes lead to an overestimation of the low-probability event of commercial airplanes crashing. Even though a person’s subjective probability of the risk of a commercial airline crash would be too high given the statistics, the mechanism responsible is different: here the recency or availability of images from the evening news is to blame for scaring him out of his wits, not the sober fumbling of a statistics table. An alternative view maintains that people understand that their weighted probabilities are different than the exogenous probability but nevertheless prefer to act as if the exogenous probability were so weighted (Wakker 2010). On this view, probability weighting is not a (mistaken) belief but a preference.