 A consensus is growing that the Drowning Problem should not be “solved” (see Pelletier and Elio 1994; Wobcke 1995, 85; Bonevac, 2003, 461–462). Consider the following variant on the problem: birds fly, Tweety is a bird that doesn’t fly, and birds have strong forelimb muscles. Here it seems we should refrain from concluding that Tweety has strong forelimb muscles, since there is reason to doubt that the strength of wing muscles is causally (and hence, probabilistically) independent of capacity for flight. Once we know that Tweety is an exceptional bird, we should refrain from applying other conditionals with Tweety is a bird as their antecedents, unless we know that these conditionals are independent of flight, that is, unless we know that the conditional with the stronger antecedent, Tweety is a non-flying bird, is also true.