 The flaw in this proposal is that the conditional gets the same value in every possible situation in which the antecedent is false. In our second example, in the “pick left and win” situation, “If pick right, win” deserves 0, not 0.5, despite its false antecedent, and in the “pick left and lose” situation, “If pick right, win” deserves 1, not 0.5. In the werewolf example, in the “goes out front door and is killed” situation, “If back door, killed” deserves 1, not 0.5, despite its false antecedent. This point is made by Bradley (2012), who has a different approach.