 When working with propositional logic, we often translate ordinary ‘If …then …’ statements using the material conditional, \(\supset\). But the probability of a \(\supset\)-statement often exceeds that of the corresponding ‘If …then …’ statement. For example, it’s very improbable that I’ll win an Olympic gold medal in diving (\(G\)) if I train five hours a day (\(T\)). Olympic divers retire by the time they’re my age. Yet \(p(T \supset G)\) is quite high, for the simple reason that \(T \supset G\) is equivalent to \(\neg T \vee G\) and \(\neg T\) is very probable. I won’t be training for Olympic diving one minute a day, much less five hours. I don’t even swim. So it’s hard to accept \(\supset\) as a good model of ‘If …then …’, though some philosophers do nevertheless think it’s correct (Grice 1989; Jackson 1987).