 But this analysis represents taking into account the evidence about one’s memory only implicitly, as an effect that that evidence already had on one’s prior probability that the student is Sarah. That effect is the difference between a .99 and a .90 prior probability, or degree of belief. The distinction that is then derived between the effects that counterevidence can have on the self-doubter and the non-self-doubter is just the familiar point that counterevidence will have a greater effect the lower one’s initial probability. 