  Critics of this decision-theoretic approach, such as Laudan (2006), argue that it’s difficult or impossible to bridge the gap between the evidence admissible in court, and the real probability of the defendant’s guilt. The probability guilt depends on three factors: the distribution of apparent guilt among the genuinely guilty, the distribution of apparent guilt among the genuinely innocent, and the ratio of genuinely guilty to genuinely innocent defendants who go to trial (see Bell 1987).  Obstacles to calculating any of these factors will block the inference from a judge or jury’s perception of apparent guilt to a true probability of guilt.