 In principle a counterfactual analysis of causation is well placed to deal with chancy causation, since counterfactual dependence does not require that the cause was sufficient, in the circumstances, for the effect – it only requires that the cause was necessary in the circumstances for the effect. The problem posed by abandoning the assumption of determinism, however, is that pervasive indeterminism undermines the plausibility of the idea that – preemption and overdetermination aside – effects generally counterfactually depend on their causes. In the Geiger counter case above, for example, suppose that the chance of the bomb exploding can be altered by means of a dial. (A low setting means the Geiger counter needs to register a lot of clicks in order for the bomb to go off in the next ten minutes, thus making the explosion very unlikely; a high setting means it needs to register very few clicks, thus making the explosion very likely.) The dial is on a low setting; I increase the chance of the bomb exploding by turning it up. My act was a cause of the explosion, but it’s not true that, had I not done it, the bomb would not have exploded; it would merely have been very unlikely to do so. 