 The incriminating evidence, combined, brings the probability of guilt from .0789 to .7019. This is a significant increase, but not quite enough for a conviction. If one wishes to perform sensitivity analysis—see earlier discussion in  §1.4—by  modifying some of the probabilities, this can be easily done. During the appeal trial, new evidence was discovered, in particular, evidence that son \(A\) was affected by a disease. Once this evidence is taken into account, the probability of guilt drops to .00459 (and if signs of disease were also present on \(B\), the guilt probability would drop even further to .0009). For a general discussion on how to elicit probabilities, see Renooij (2001) and Gaag et al. (1999).