 Subjective chance does not suffice for objective chance. To demonstrate the impossibility of long-term prediction, Daniel Kahneman, Oliver Sibony and Cass Sunstein invite the reader to “consider the fact that at the instant of conception, there was an even chance that every significant figure in history (and also the insignificant onces) would be born with a different gender”. (2021, 141) Those who believe in the necessity of origins will disagree. According to Saul Kripke (1990, 112–113), Socrates could not have originated from a sperm-egg combination other than the one from which he actually originated. Since the Y chromosome of his father dictated Socrates’ biological gender, Socrates is as essentially male as he is essentially human. When we imagine Sophroniscus siring a daughter with Phaenarete in 469 BC, we are imagining Socrates failing to exist. Kripke’s metaphysics also precludes the consolation Richard Dawkins offers in Unweaving the Rainbow: “We are going to die, and that makes us the lucky ones. Most people are never going to die because they are never going to be born. The potential people who could have been here in my place outnumber the sand grains of Arabia.” (1998, 1). From Kripke’s perspective, the number of non-existent people is zero. When we speak of those who are never conceived, we are imagining a possible world with a population originating from alternative sperm-egg combinations. They would have existed but do not exist. 