 Question (i) is essentially a question about the psychology of reasoning: one must offer an account of why the (mathematically innocent) association reversals seem paradoxical to many. Such accounts help to identify valid forms of inference that leads individuals to mistakenly rule out association reversals, and thereby provide answers to question (ii). Such analyses can differentiate among subtly different forms of reasoning, and open the door to empirical work testing whether humans systematically fail to attend to particular differences.