 Now, should the credence in the hypothesis be increased or lowered, according to the two core Bayesian norms? Well, it depends. Note that in the present case H entails neither E nor its negation, so the possibilities in H can be categorized into two groups: those compatible with E, and those incompatible with E. As a result of conditionalization, the possibilities incompatible with E will have their credences be dropped down to zero; those compatible, scaled up. If the scaling up outweighs the dropping down for the possibilities inside H, the credence in H will rise and thus behave inductively; otherwise, it will stay constant or even go down and thus behave counter-inductively. So it all depends on the specific details of the prior, which is shorthand for the assignment of credences that one has before one acquires the new evidence in question. To sum up: Probabilism and the Principle of Conditionalization, alone, are too weak to entitle us to say whether one’s credence ought to change inductively or counter-inductively in the above example.