 Reflection on some examples suggests the following problem with this principle. An experience’s being a mere itch does not make it probable that it is a pain, for its being a mere itch rules out its being a pain; and an experience’s being indeterminately either an itch or a pain does not make it probable that it is a pain, for it might just as probably be an itch. Or suppose that I am directly aware of a phenomenally red patch in my visual field, and on the basis of this I form the false belief that it is, say, pink; or that I am directly aware of a determinate shade red1, but I form the false belief that the patch is red2. Again, principle (3) does not apply: something’s being red cannot make it probable that it is pink, for there are many other shades of red; something’s being red1 cannot make it probable that it is red2, for being one determinate shade rules out being the other. (See Huemer 2007 for an argument against (2) and (3) along these lines, though one that employs some different examples.)