 Likewise, we might start out unsure whether the first \(9\) tosses will come up tails, but believe that if they do, then the probability of the \(10\)th toss coming up tails is \(10/11\). Then, when we see the first \(9\) tosses come up tails, we might conclude that the \(10\)th toss has a \(10/11\) chance of coming up tails, or, we might instead decide we were wrong at the outset to think it had a \(10/11\) chance of coming up tails on the \(10\)th toss if it came up tails on the first \(9\) tosses.