 However, this result for conjunctions of conditionals gives some implausible results. An example due to Mark Lance (1991) concerns a werewolf, such that it’s 50% likely that it is our area tonight. If it is, it will kill everyone outside. “If John went out, he was killed” gets 0.5. But “If John went out the back door, he was killed, and if John went out the front door, he was killed” gets 0.25 on this proposal, whereas it should still get 0.5. Another example, due to Richard Bradley: I must pick one of two urns, only one of which contains the prize. “If I pick the left urn, I’ll win” gets 0.5. “If I pick the right urn, I’ll win” gets 0.5. On this proposal, “If I pick the left urn I’ll win, and if I pick the right urn, I’ll win” gets 0.25, whereas it surely deserves to get 0.