 Barlow followed a 1996 report by the National Research Council, often referred to as NRC II (National Research Council 1996). The report recommended that in cold-hit cases the random match probability should be multiplied by the size of the database. This correction was meant to guard against the heightened risk of mistaken matches for the innocent people in the database. NRC II used an analogy. If you toss several different coins at once and all show heads on the first attempt, this outcome seems strong evidence that the coins are biased. If, however, you repeat this experiment sufficiently many times, it is almost certain that at some point all coins will land heads. This outcome should not count as evidence that the coins are biased. According to NRC II, repeating the coin toss experiment multiple times is analogous to trying to find a match by searching through a database of profiles. As the size of the database increases, it is more likely that someone in the database who had nothing to do with the crime would match.