 The classic, quantitative solution originates with Hosiasson-Lindenbaum (1940). It holds that the discovery of blue underpants does confirm the hypothesis that all ravens are black, just by so little that we overlook it. How could blue underpants be relevant to the hypothesis that all ravens are black? Informally, the idea is that an object which turns out to be a blue pair of underpants could instead have turned out to be a white raven. When it turns out not to be such a counterexample, our hypothesis passes a weak sort of test. Does our formal theory of confirmation vindicate this informal line of thinking? The answer is, “yes, but…”.