 This theorem says that a mind-change optimal method may withhold a conjecture as a skeptic would, but if it does adopt a definite hypothesis, the hypothesis must be the simplest one, in the sense of having the maximum simplicity rank. Thus the mind change optimal methods discussed in  Section 4  are all Ockham methods that adopt the simplest hypothesis consistent with the data. The Ockham theorem shows a remarkable reversal from the long-standing objection that long-run reliability imposes too few constraints on short-run conjectures: If we add to long-run convergence to the truth the goal of achieving stable belief, then in fact there is a unique inductive method that achieves this goal in a given empirical problem. Thus the methodological analysis switches from offering no short-run prescriptions to offering a complete prescription.