 According to Sliwa and Horowitz EC implies that Ana is not rational to have a .6 confidence in not-q because not-q is not the conclusion the evidence actually favors. It would be rational for her to have .6 confidence that q, the same as Anton. This claim highlights ambiguities in the phrase “one’s educated guess that q”. Expected reliability is the probability that you would assign the highest credence to the true answer, and the undermining evidence both Anton and Ana were given said that in the conditions they were in they had a 60% chance of their guess being the right  answer.[3]  If so, then neither of them have enough information to know the expected reliability of a guess that q. If the probabilities it appeared they were given, for one’s guess about q whatever it is, are to be usable, then the phrase in EC would need to be interpreted “one’s educated guess that q or not-q”.