 Your educated guess corresponds to the answer that you have the highest credence in. Reliability of such a guess is defined as the probability that you would assign the highest credence to the true answer if you had to choose, and as above this probability is understood as your propensity to guess correctly. What is used in EC, as in GC, is an expected rather than actual reliability so it is weighted by how likely you think each possible reliability level is. The difference between GC and EC is that in the latter the calibration requirement depends explicitly on which conclusion the first-order evidence actually supports. On this principle, Anton, who reasoned correctly with the first-order evidence, is rational to be .6 confident in q rather than not-q because q is the conclusion the first-order evidence actually supports. The contribution of the second-order evidence is to reduce his confidence in that conclusion from a high value to .6.