 Hempel’s only reservation about indoor ornithology is inefficiency. Given how the actual world is arranged, more news about ‘All ravens are black’ can be gained outdoors. We do not bother to look indoors because the return on inquiry is too low. Bottom up Bayesians envisage extraordinary scenarios in which the return on inquiry could be high. However, even their ample imagination fails to yield a possible world in which a single day has a more discernible opportunity to make a difference to whether someone is a child. All pressure to shift credence is exerted top down from probability theory.