 Buchak (2014) argues that it is rational to have full belief that a blue bus is to blame in the first scenario, but not in the second. You have only statistical evidence in the first scenario, whereas in the second, a causal chain of events connects your belief to the accident (see also Thomson (1986), Nelkin (2000) and Schauer (2003)). These intuitions, Buchak observes, are reflected in our legal practice: purely statistical evidence is not sufficient to convict. If you find Buchak’s point convincing, you will be unsatisfied with most of the proposed accounts for how full and partial belief ought to correspond (see Staffel (2016)). 