 A quantitative approach also promises to help resolve the raven paradox. The most popular resolution says that observing a red shirt does confirm that all ravens are black, just by a very minuscule amount. The raven paradox is thus an illusion: we mistake a minuscule amount of confirmation for none at all (Hosiasson-Lindenbaum 1940). But to make this response convincing, we need a proper, quantitative theory of confirmation that explains how a red shirt could be relevant to a hypothesis about ravens, but only just slightly relevant.