 Why does this tension exist? Formal theorizing aside, it is obvious that whether someone is competent—i.e., more often right than wrong—depends on the type (reference class) of judgment tasks considered. Plausibly, people are more often right among all conceivable judgment tasks (the maximal reference class), and presumably also among many large reference classes, such as all guilty-or-innocent judgment tasks. But someone is presumably incompetent—more often wrong—among some very specific types of judgment tasks, such as all confusing tasks, and all guilty-or-innocent judgment tasks with seemingly honest but lying witnesses.