 Betz (2015), however, argues that even a possibilistic interpretation of ensemble results may be hard to justify, since it is difficult to show that contrary-to-fact assumptions employed in climate models do not lead to projections that are inconsistent with background knowledge; on his view, though not on Katzav’s, this consistency is necessary for projections to indicate serious possibilities. Part of the disagreement here thus hinges on what it takes for something to be a serious/real possibility.