 Staffel argues that your degree of belief in the first case is higher than in the second, but much more entrenched in the second than in the first. Therefore, degree of belief cannot be reduced to degree of entrenchment. Nevertheless, the same gambit is open to Harman in the case of the marbles–he can claim that in both scenarios you merely have a full belief in a proposition about objective chance. See Staffel (2013) for a much more extensive engagement with Harman (1986). 