 Changing the example slightly gives us a case of a probability-raising non-cause. Suppose that Billy and Suzy throw their rocks simultaneously. As it happens, Suzy’s throw hits the bottle and Billy’s misses. Nonetheless, Billy’s throw increased the probability that the bottle would shatter from 50% (the probability that Suzy would hit) to 95% (the probability that at least one of them would hit). But Billy’s throw did not in fact cause the bottle to shatter. In the terminology of Schaffer (2001), Billy’s throw is a fizzler. It had the potential to shatter the bottle, but it fizzled out, and something else actually caused the bottle to break.