 The idea of difference-making itself can be formulated in several ways. One way is proposed by Douven, in what he calls the “Evidential support thesis” (“EST”, Douven [2008, 2016: 108]). Basically, the EST says that a conditional \(A&gt;C\) is relevantly assertable provided \(\Pr(C|A)\) exceeds a sufficiently high threshold and \(\Pr(C|A)&gt;\Pr(C)\). Douven’s main argument in support of the latter condition—which is a relevance criterion—is that high probability is not enough for assertion. He gives the example of the following minimal pair: