 Hart and Titelbaum (2015) suggest that dilation is strange because conditionalising on a biconditional (which is, after all, what you are doing in the above example) is unintuitive even in the precise case. Whether all cases of dilation can be explained away in this manner remains to be seen. Gong and Meng (2017) likewise see dilation as a problem of mis-specified statistical inference, rather than a problem for IP per se. 