 Maher argues that the successful prediction of the initial 99 flips constitutes persuasive evidence that the predictor ‘has a reliable method’ for making predictions of coin flip outcomes. T’s consistency with E in the case of the accommodator provides no particular evidence that the accommodator’s method of prediction is reliable—thus we have no particular reason to endorse his prediction about the 100th flip. Allowing R to assert that the method in question is reliable, and \(M_T\) that method M generated hypothesis T, this amounts to: