 O’Connor &amp; Weatherall (2018) suggest a natural formula for computing \(p'(E)\) and \(p'(\neg E)\), which we won’t go into here. We’ll just note that the choice of formula is crucial to the polarization effect. Mistrust doesn’t necessarily introduce the possibility of polarization; the mistrust has to be sufficiently strong (greater than 1.0 in the above figure). There has to be a point at which agents won’t trust each other at all because their difference of opinion is so great. Otherwise the skeptics would never ignore their optimistic colleagues entirely, so they’d eventually be won over by their encouraging reports.