 The empirical evidence on the paradox shows that reasoners find trivariate reasoning (i.e., with a causally relevant third variable) generally hard and fail to take its role properly into account, even if salient cues to its relevance are provided (Fiedler, Walther, Freytag, &amp; Nickel 2003). Other studies point to the facilitative effect of causal model, statistical training and high motivation (Schaller 1992; Waldmann &amp; Hagmayer 1995), but the significant difficulties that reasoners encounter in Simpson-like tasks make it unlikely that the question of the right analysis of the paradox will soon be decided empirically.