 13. Major historical change as emergent—against intelligent design and the conscious model. Many historical developments are not deliberately chosen or designed but emerge from numbers of people carrying out their individual and collective activities. The rise of the nation-state and of the international capitalist economic system were not the products of centralized, rational planning, nor were modern science and technology, although there were, of course, many micro-instances of such planning. This point applies to the idea of scientific method, which tradition often depicted as clairvoyantly, intelligently guiding scientific innovation. But as Hume already anticipated, no method is guaranteed in advance to work in a novel domain. Methodological innovation typically follows rather than precedes innovative work (Hull 1988; Dennett 1995; Nickles 2009, forthcoming). This is a broadly Hegelian idea.