 However, in the case of uncertain conditionals, it is hard to accept that the heuristics are “reliable enough under normal conditions”, when combined with the truth-functional semantics. When the conditional is certain, the suppositional procedure and the truth function agree. They also agree in the relatively uninteresting case in which the antecedent is certain. In all other cases, the truth-functional conditional gets a higher value than the suppositional conditional, and the difference between them can be arbitrarily large. Many examples have already been given (see §§2.3, 2.5, 3.1, 3.2). Another simple example: how likely is it that if the die lands an even number, it lands 6? Most people, rightly in my view, will answer 1/3. If the conditional is a material implication, the answer is 2/3: if it lands 1, 3, 5 or 6, the conditional is true. As already mentioned, all conditionals whose antecedents are improbable, are probable as judged by the truth function. 