 Here is why: suppose the hand is at 20 minutes after the hour, and Chloe’s credence is in fact distributed as it should be, with P20 receiving the highest value. Since Chloe is rational, then by  (2)  above, she should also give significant credence to P19 and P21. Now consider the implications for what Chloe thinks her credence should be. In P20, Chloe’s current credence is rational. But in P19 and P21 (which we have just said she gives significant credence to), her current credence in P20 is too high. So she is in a position to conclude the following about her credence in P20: it’s definitely not too low, but it may well be too high. This unbalanced state violates Rational Reflection, and also looks like an instance of epistemic akrasia.