 By analogy, using the success of a scientific theory as an indicator of its approximate truth (assuming a low rate of false positives—cases in which theories far from the truth are nonetheless successful) is arguably, likewise, an instance of the base rate fallacy. The success of a theory does not by itself suggest that it is likely approximately true, and since there is no independent way of knowing the base rate of approximately true theories, the chances of it being approximately true cannot be assessed. Worrall (unpublished, Other Internet Resources) maintains that these contentions are ineffective against the miracle argument because they crucially depend on a misleading formalization of it in terms of probabilities (cf. Menke 2014; for a criticism of the miracle argument based on a different probabilistic framing in terms of likelihoods, see Sober 2015: 912–915).