 An example of an arbitrary conjunction is “The sun is made of helium and August 3rd 2017 falls on a Thursday and 17 is a prime number”. In the original coin flip case, we judge that H is weakly supported in the accommodator’s scenario because we judge that the apparently random sequence of outcomes is probably an arbitrary conjunction—thus the fact that the initial 99 conjuncts are confirmed implies almost nothing about what the 100th outcome will be. But the success of the predictor in predicting the initial 99 outcomes strongly implies that the sequence is not an arbitrary conjunction after all: 