 is true. To assess (5), we need to consider the nearest world in which a Republican wins (call it \(w)\), and ask whether the conditional consequent is true at \(w\). At \(w\), almost certainly, it is Reagan who wins. We need now to consider the nearest world to \(w\) in which Reagan does not win. Call it \(w'\). In \(w'\), almost certainly, Carter wins.