 This challenge suggests some important lessons. First, we need a laxer notion of prediction than deductive entailment. The 50% hypothesis may not entail that a large survey of ravens will have some non-black ravens, but it does suggest this prediction pretty strongly. Second, as a sort of corollary, confirmation is quantitative: it comes in degrees. A single, black raven doesn’t do much to support the hypothesis that 50% of ravens are black, but a large sample of roughly half black, half white ravens would. Third and finally, degrees of confirmation should be understood in terms of probability. The 50% hypothesis doesn’t make it very probable that a single raven will be black, but it makes it highly probable that a much larger collection will be roughly half black, half non-black. And the all-black hypothesis predicts that any sample of ravens will be entirely black with \(100\)% probability.