 A fourth possible method is for the layperson to verify, by his/her own observation, that a candidate expert was correct in previous cases where he/she offered a view on the topic in question. The problem here is whether a layperson is capable of making such observations or determinations. It is possible in a selected range of cases. A layperson might consult with a broker to decide whether a certain investment is advisable. The broker gives her the go-ahead based on a prediction that the market in question will rise in the next three years. The layperson makes the investment, waits three years, and notes that the broker was right: the market did rise in those three years. The layperson couldn’t have made this prediction on the basis of her own knowledge. But she is able (after three years) to conclude that the putative expert was correct. Repeated instances of this kind would strengthen the support.