 The idea that the right semantics for conditionals may be probabilistic is appealing for at least three reasons. First of all, as pointed out by Adams (1965), it is unclear whether it makes sense to declare either true or false conditionals with false antecedents. Adams thus prefers to think of conditionals as having assertability conditions, rather than truth conditions, and justified assertability is naturally handled in terms of probability. Adams’s scepticism about truth conditions for conditionals is shared by several authors, in particular Gibbard (1980) and Edgington (1995), and it was further fueled by Lewis’s (1976) triviality results. Secondly, many conditional sentences appear to express only a relation of probable inference between antecedent and consequent. Thus, whereas “if \(a=b\), then \(a+1=b+1\)” expresses a purely deductive relation, “if you boil this egg, it will become hard” expresses an inductive relation, and “if the light does not turn on, then the lamp must be broken” expresses an abductive relation (Douven &amp; Verbrugge 2010; Krzyżanowska, Wenmackers, &amp; Douven 2013; Douven 2016). But in the same way in which inductive and abductive inferences express that a conclusion may be inferred from given premises with only a reasonable probability, putting these inferences into a conditional appears to demand the assignment of a degree of probability to the corresponding sentences. Thirdly, as stressed by Stalnaker (1970),